Will "Tanking" actually bring quality draft picks to the Celtics?

[Rondo9]

Sorry I'm not going to have a strategy based on luck.

[fairweatherfan]

Sorry I'm not going to have a strategy based on luck.

What's a strategy that doesn't involve luck?

[Rondo9]

Sorry I'm not going to have a strategy based on luck.

What's a strategy that doesn't involve luck?

Okay mostly on luck.

[PickNRoll]

Pretty much what Granath said plus my thoughts over here: http://www.celticsblog.com/2015/1/20/7863433/finding-the-next-star-big-man

You gotta get lucky and you almost have to land in the top 5.

[guava_wrench]

We have a ton of picks. That will bring quality draft picks to the Celtics. Not much to debate. If you have a lot of picks, some will pan out.

[Adelaide Celt]

I think we'll end up pretty much the same as last year - 5th or 6th worst record for the #6 or #7 pick.

[guava_wrench]

Sorry I'm not going to have a strategy based on luck.

Correct. That is why you get a lot of picks. That way you aren't leaving things to luck. You are making it very unlikely that you don't get quality picks or have assets that can't easily be moved by having a lot of picks.

Nevermind the problem a outcomes in life are greatly determined by luck or chance. People like to say 'you make your own luck', which is both correct and wrong. You can do things to improve the chances that you get the outcome you want, but you can never guarantee things, especially in sports.

Of course, luck is irrelevant to a great degree since we had a crap team last year and we have a crap team this year. Keeping the same players another year would have meant a still not good team next year overpaying Green and Rondo, if they both agreed to stay if we threw money at them.

[guava_wrench]

By "quality" players I don't just mean "good" players...in order to win championships you need "great" players...will there be any of those - great players, future HOF players in all the draft picks Danny has accumulated?  I hope so - time will tell.

MikeB12 (Celtics fan for 50+ years)

Getting a great player is a crapshoot. The easiest way is to draft in the top 5. Let's look at SI's top 20 players this year (no, I don't agree with the list either, but I need one and this is convenient):

#20 - Dwayne Wade, #5 pick
#19 - Serge Ibaka, #24 pick
#18 - Chris Bosh, #4 pick
#17 - Joakim Noah, #9 pick
#16 - Marc Gasol, #48 pick
#15 - Tony Parker, #28 pick
#14 - Dirk Nowitzki, #9 pick
#13 - James Harden, #3 pick
#12 - LaMarcus Aldridge, #2 pick
#11 - Carmelo Anthony, #3 pick
#10 - Blake Griffin, #1 pick
#09 - Dwight Howard, #1 pick
#08 - Stephen Curry, #7 pick
#07 - Kevin Love, #5 pick
#06 - Anthony Davis, #1 pick
#05 - Tim Duncan, #1 pick
#04 - Russell Westbrook, #4 pick
#03 - Chris Paul, #4 pick
#02 - Kevin Durant, #2 pick
#01 - Lebron James, #1 pick

And I'll add a couple of my own for giggles:

Damien Lillard, #6 pick
Klay Thompson, #11 pick
Demarcus Cousins, #5 pick
Kyrie Irving, #1 pick

There's a pretty clear pattern there. Want a top player? Get a top pick - and then get lucky. Otherwise, it's an absolute crapshoot. For instance, it's not like Philly knew that Vucevic would be great when they drafted him at #16. If they did, they wouldn't have traded him the next year! You're going to need to have some good fortune to get that franchise player.

So if the draft is a two-headed crapshoot - you need to get a high pick and then you need to get lucky - one of the best strategies you could employ is to have as many chances at a high pick as possible. Whether or not that comes to fruition remains to be seen, but Danny's strategy is the correct one. Whether or not it works remains to be seen.

Interesting how the only guys from that SI top 20 list who were drafted outside the lottery are European players (Gasol, Ibaka, Parker). And Ibaka is looking like he is stagnating, though he is still young.

[Sketch5]

Tanking and landing the #1 is a crap shoot and DA knows this being threw it twice and seeing his team with the second worst record not gt the second or even third best pick and also seeing team with one of the better records in the lotto get the #1.

So that's why the extra draft picks. Don't get were you want, trade up, some teams will want more picks and are willing to wait an extra year for a possible star player to add to their young talent.

Also the tanking I don't think is to get a top three, it's just to stay in the lotto. In the East it's hard to be bad, it's the opposite of the west were you have to be really good just for the 8th seed.

[SHAQATTACK]

It's a long shot .....but a better shot than NO shot. Or ......10 th , 15 th or 20 th pick ......

So if there is no star available ......pretty much all is left is a tank to get the best player .

Without a decent center Center are going no where.   And are getting no stars to sign to,a,team without a star center .

Now if we had Anthony Davis ,  yeah you just play hard and FA will come .

NBA has regulated out the possibility of rebuilding to much other than luck .

[Celtics4ever]

Tanking and landing the #1 is a crap shoot and DA knows this being threw it twice and seeing his team with the second worst record not gt the second or even third best pick

Rest assured he will see what the pick is before he trades it, I wager.

[PaulAllen]

Its a heavy top 5-6 picks so as long as they fall into that stratosphere the tank will be sufficent..

[erisred]

Its a heavy top 5-6 picks so as long as they fall into that stratosphere the tank will be sufficent..

To guarantee a top 5 or 6 pick, you have to have the 3rd or 4th worse record, though. Such are the vagaries of the lottery.

[soulman]

i think we will sign a very good free agent this summer, DA will use picks for acquiring another good player.

[ThaPreacher]

Tanking and landing the #1 is a crap shoot and DA knows this being threw it twice and seeing his team with the second worst record not gt the second or even third best pick

Rest assured he will see what the pick is before he trades it, I wager.

I was at the gym yesterday in Boston,  Danny Ainge was on the stationary bike next to me.  Espn was on showing game highlights.  Ainge could be heard muttering,

"Tank or go home!"