Will "Tanking" actually bring quality draft picks to the Celtics?

[guava_wrench]

Tanking has brought us the deserved worst possible scenario in '07.  Last year's result wasn't a whole lot better.

Play to win every game.  Whether we get the 1st or 15th pick...At least you won't have to gut the entire team to rid yourself of the culture stench that was '07.

Uh, no.

If we won a few more games in '07, that would likely mean no Ray Allen. That would mean no KG and no banner 17.

'07 had plenty of young guys who worked hard. They didn't have a culture problem. They had a talent problem and Pierce had elbow issues.

[Casperian]

I don't see any tanking. We got rid of a bunch of guys who had no future with our team.

Last season, Danny kept Rondo and Green to try and add some high-profile guys to our roster. No tanking, either.

Dunno, but I think that's all in your heads

I would ask you if the roster is good?   Then could we not be tanking by roster?

Which begs the question: How much better could this roster be?

I mean, sure, we could offer a lot of money to average players, but I don't see the point in that. Staying away from bad contracts doesn't equal tanking.

We had a good team, then our best players declined, so we were not a good team, anymore. That's just the way it goes. If people think we're "tanking" just because we don't magically field another contender 2 years later, then I have to wonder what exactly they would have done differently.

[Rondo9]

To guarantee a top 5 or 6 pick, you have to have the 3rd or 4th worse record, though. Such are the vagaries of the lottery.

Do people really think we have a star on our roster already?   I don't MS has a long way to go to be such a player and the same is true on Young.   Sully and KO have proved they are not stars and limited with their defensive and athletic abilities.  The draft and free agency are are best bet at landing a star.

Smart could become one if he developed a good shot and Young needs to learn NBA defense.   Sully and Oly are what they are, guys who can play and produce to some degree but absolute liabilities on the defensive end.  They also are not consistent on offense and both limited by their subpar athletic ability.   Both are already possessing of a high skill level and therefore have finite ceilings.  I think we should be playing Smart and Young 20+ Mpg on Smart and 15+ on Young but this is balanced by the need to showcase, Bass, Turner and Thornton so we can get an asset for them.   Now Prince is added to that formula so the young guys might not see minutes until after the trade deadline which is coming up on us fast.

You can't give up on your young players yet. They're not finished products.

[crimson_stallion]

I don't see any tanking. We got rid of a bunch of guys who had no future with our team.

Last season, Danny kept Rondo and Green to try and add some high-profile guys to our roster. No tanking, either.

Dunno, but I think that's all in your heads.

As unspectacular as we were, we were only a couple outside of the 8th seed in the very ugly East with half a season still to go - if Danny stuck with the team, Boston had a legit chance to make the playoffs.  It would have been an ugly playoff appearance (8th seed, likely a one-side blowout in the first round) but playoffs none the less.  Then at the end of the season Rondo and Green could opt to go elsewhere, and we'd have that $20M+ cap space freed up...plus a higher probability of pulling in a star free agent (having just come off a playoff run, any FA's could be comfortable in knowing the team's goal is winning).

Instead Danny chose to do the following:

1) Trade away the only two legit starters Boston had - team now is filled with a ton of young fringe-starters and drops almost immediately towards the bottom of the east standings (bottom 5 in the league right now)

2) Bring back nothing but picks, expiring contracts and trade exceptions - no players who might help fill the teems current needs, nothing that helps the team get better 'right now'.

What is the result?

This year:
* The team becomes really bad
* Players play hard because they want to win (which is what you want)
* Team loses a ton anyway because they just don't have the talent

Next year:
* Boston gets a top 5 pick in the draft, due to them finishing bottom 5 in the league standings
* Tons of contracts expire, giving lots of cap space
* Boston gets to use cap space to try to lure a big name free agent
* If they fail in Free Agency, Boston gets to use their array of picks, young talent and trade exceptions to give them flexibility to  try and pull off a blockbuster trade (or two)
* If trade is successful, Boston can still use remaining cap space to add more talent

Looking at the situation I don't see how you could classify this as anything other than tanking.  I mean sure, Danny isn't going out there telling his players to take games off and intentionally throw games...that would just be just plain unethical. 

But every move he has made has very clearly (and predictably) made the team significantly worse right now, but significantly improved the teams flexibility for the future.  To me that is 'politically correct' tanking because the moves that Danny is making clearly indicate that he does not care at all about winning RIGHT NOW.

Making moves which absolutely ensure the team loses more games = tanking

[crimson_stallion]

I haven't heard anyone say that we have a star.  I think Smart has star potential.  Young is a surefire specialist shooter, at worst.  Everyone else is expendable.  Everyone.

I think Smart and Young are just as expendable as anyone else. There just hasn't been anyone good on the blocks these days. I'm sure that if a franchise type becomes available, Ainge will be happy to ship Smart, Young + almost any combination of picks for them.

Just curious, would you deal Smart, Young, Bass, 2015 1st, Clippers pick, 2019 Memphis pick for Boogie?  Ignore the attitude issues.

Absolutely - you would have to be a bit crazy not to I think.

At the end of the day, you could a (very realistic) argument that Demarcus Cousins is the most skilled/talented center in the enter NBA right now.  You could even argue that he is the second best big man (after Anthony Davis) in the entire NBA.

Hell statistically, if you look at the numbers he's putting up this year (Per 36 stats of 25.6 points, 13.5 rebounds, 3.4 assists, 1.4 steals, 1.8 blocks)...they are better overall numbers then Dwight Howard has ever managed, and he is clearly seen as a franchise-calibre player in today's NBA.  In fact we haven't seen numbers like that from an NBA center since the golden generation of Ewing, Hakeem, Robinson and Shaq. 

Yes his attitude is questionable, but how many of the old school players didn't have similar attitude problems?  Michael Jordan, Dennis Rodman, Kobe Bryant, Rasheed Wallace?  Hell you could even argue Rondo had just as much of an attitude issue, and how far did he carry us in the big three era?

DMC is an undisputed franchise player - a guy you can build your franchise / contender.  Especially because he's still so young, so he there is no telling how dominant he could become.  There is not a single asset on this team that I wouldn't give up if it meant getting DMC in return.

[Casperian]

Making moves which absolutely ensure the team loses more games = tanking

First, that's a very detailed answer, TP for that alone.
Second, I think most of your conclusions are based on assumptions which include pretty big leaps of faith and logic. For example:

Then at the end of the season Rondo and Green could opt to go elsewhere, and we'd have that $20M+ cap space freed up...plus a higher probability of pulling in a star free agent (having just come off a playoff run, any FA's could be comfortable in knowing the team's goal is winning).

You really believe making the playoffs as an 7th/8th seed would increase our chances to sign a max FA, when we're without Rondo and Green, anyway? Seems far-fetched to me.

The crux lies in your last sentence. Whereas you believe Ainge made those moves strictly to make us worse now, I believe he made them to make us better in the future. Rondo and Green would've walked in FA and we get nothing in return. Ainge had to make these trades. There was no fire-sale of our best talent just to make us worse, not last season, and not this season.

We were simply handed lemons, and he tried to make lemonade. We got something instead of nothing. Again, if people believe that's an indication we're trying to lose as much as possible...well, I think that's all in your heads.

[MikeB12]

OK, I'm not saying that getting a high draft pick can't get a great player like Pierce or any of the other great players named by various posters.  However, since I don't follow the college game that well, you tell me whether any of the top 10 college kids will turn out to be a great HOF player for the Celtics...guess what, you can't.   

I agree that getting higher draft choices gives you a greater chance to get a great HOF player; I understand that.   Are there any Shaqs, Kobes, Pierces, Duncans, in college right now that everyone knows should have a really good chance to become a franchise eventual HOF player.I haven't heard that type of talk about any current college player.

So the Celts traded Rondo and Green...will any of the draft choices turn out to be as good as they are...I hope so.

Mike

[hwangjini_1]

OK, I'm not saying that getting a high draft pick can't get a great player like Pierce or any of the other great players named by various posters.  However, since I don't follow the college game that well, you tell me whether any of the top 10 college kids will turn out to be a great HOF player for the Celtics...guess what, you can't.   

I agree that getting higher draft choices gives you a greater chance to get a great HOF player; I understand that.   Are there any Shaqs, Kobes, Pierces, Duncans, in college right now that everyone knows should have a really good chance to become a franchise eventual HOF player.I haven't heard that type of talk about any current college player.

So the Celts traded Rondo and Green...will any of the draft choices turn out to be as good as they are...I hope so.

Mike

well, since neither green nor rondo would have been playing for the celtics, yes, i believe that these draft picks will turn out to be better players for the celtics. it seems that the other choice was to not have green or rondo on the celtics and have NO draft picks.

[Quetzalcoatl]

OK, I'm not saying that getting a high draft pick can't get a great player like Pierce or any of the other great players named by various posters.  However, since I don't follow the college game that well, you tell me whether any of the top 10 college kids will turn out to be a great HOF player for the Celtics...guess what, you can't.   

I agree that getting higher draft choices gives you a greater chance to get a great HOF player; I understand that.   Are there any Shaqs, Kobes, Pierces, Duncans, in college right now that everyone knows should have a really good chance to become a franchise eventual HOF player.I haven't heard that type of talk about any current college player.

So the Celts traded Rondo and Green...will any of the draft choices turn out to be as good as they are...I hope so.

Mike

And you can't tell me that a big FA coming to the Celtics next year will automatically keep their production up, either.  Remember Howard to the Lakers?  Kevin Love to the Cavs?  Lance Stephenson to Charlotte?  Nothing is promised, you have to do what is best for your team.  Odds are, the better the pick, the better the player we add to the Celtics or the better player we can get in a trade. 

The other suggestion that is implied from most posters against tanking is that we should sign FAs like Monroe and Reggie Jackson and turn into a mediocre team at best and the Pistons from the beginning of this season at worst.  Look at New Orleans right now.  They signed a bunch of mediocre players that seemed great at the time and now they're wasting the career of the best player in the world because they have no cap flexibility or draft picks. 

[konkmv]

I think smart will be a star... i think all our picks from here to 2018 where the nets destruction ends we can have stars via picks... smart... towns... simmons... maker.... hahaha

[Celtics4ever]

Which begs the question: How much better could this roster be?

I mean, sure, we could offer a lot of money to average players, but I don't see the point in that. Staying away from bad contracts doesn't equal tanking.

We had a good team, then our best players declined, so we were not a good team, anymore. That's just the way it goes. If people think we're "tanking" just because we don't magically field another contender 2 years later, then I have to wonder what exactly they would have done differently.

That is a theory but I think it is more complex than that with all due respect.  I also think it is only viewing the surface and a tad naive.

This roster does not exactly fit together like a glove.   We have 1 or 2 good outside shooters, some unathletic PFs, at times we lack leadership, a young coach who is learning the ropes is uet another factor.   I think this could be by design by Ainge.  While, he won't admit to tanking this roster as consistuted is deeply flawed across the board.  A hodge podge of parts that do not always play together but play hard.

I am not advocating for us to sign average players,  I think Ainge gave it shot and it did not work.  I think he is doing his job and putting us in position by developing assets and making sure we draft a good one.

[Casperian]

That is a theory but I think it is more complex than that with all due respect.  I also think it is only viewing the surface and a tad naive.

Fair enough

This roster does not exactly fit together like a glove.   We have 1 or 2 good outside shooters, some unathletic PFs, at times we lack leadership, a young coach who is learning the ropes is uet another factor.   I think this could be by design by Ainge.  While, he won't admit to tanking this roster as consistuted is deeply flawed across the board.  A hodge podge of parts that do not always play together but play hard.

I am not advocating for us to sign average players,  I think Ainge gave it shot and it did not work.  I think he is doing his job and putting us in position by developing assets and making sure we draft a good one.

I know this has become a tired argument around here, but I still believe we are not tanking, we're rebuilding. Yes, the roster is not constructed to ensure we win the most games possible. It is absolutely clear this is not a competitive team right now. Then again, this roster hasn't been "constructed" in any way, shape or form, anyway. It's just the by-product of us having to trade some of our best players.
We still play hard, Stevens is still trying to win these games, to make our players better, we're not losing games on purpose.

We're developing players, hold them accountable, instill responsibility, we keep flexibility, we accumulate assets until the opportunity arises. We're building, we're not tearing it down just to be bad and get as high a draft pick as possible.

Maybe it's my limited grasp of the english language, but to me, that is not "tanking".

[jonaslopes]

That is a theory but I think it is more complex than that with all due respect.  I also think it is only viewing the surface and a tad naive.

Fair enough

This roster does not exactly fit together like a glove.   We have 1 or 2 good outside shooters, some unathletic PFs, at times we lack leadership, a young coach who is learning the ropes is uet another factor.   I think this could be by design by Ainge.  While, he won't admit to tanking this roster as consistuted is deeply flawed across the board.  A hodge podge of parts that do not always play together but play hard.

I am not advocating for us to sign average players,  I think Ainge gave it shot and it did not work.  I think he is doing his job and putting us in position by developing assets and making sure we draft a good one.

I know this has become a tired argument around here, but I still believe we are not tanking, we're rebuilding. Yes, the roster is not constructed to ensure we win the most games possible. It is absolutely clear this is not a competitive team right now. Then again, this roster hasn't been "constructed" in any way, shape or form, anyway. It's just the by-product of us having to trade some of our best players.
We still play hard, Stevens is still trying to win these games, to make our players better, we're not losing games on purpose.

We're developing players, hold them accountable, instill responsibility, we keep flexibility, we accumulate assets until the opportunity arises. We're building, we're not tearing it down just to be bad and get as high a draft pick as possible.

Maybe it's my limited grasp of the english language, but to me, that is not "tanking".

Great post, TP.

Don't kill yourselves tankers, you'll always have Philly.

We are not tanking. The Knicks and the Sixers are tanking. Only a blind person can't see the difference between them and us. We are just a bad team. We can win a few games, but we are still a bad team with some good prospects. They are getting better.

Give up, wishful thinkers. We are not getting Okafor or Towns. No team will trade a top 3 pick with us (if we get a top 3 pick would you accept to trade down with another team?). We're taking the sixth or seventh pick. And that's ok. Stephen Curry was a seventh pick. Klay Thompson was an eleventh pick. We can draft good players and develop them.

Deal with it. This is a long rebuild.

[konkmv]

I think we will get at least another 3 very gòod players via draft the next 2 years..

[jonaslopes]

By the way, it's easier to trade up the Clippers pick. For instance, trade Bass and the Clippers pick or even Crowder and the Clippers pick for a 10-15 pick. Seriously, no one will trade a top 3 pick, give up.