Will "Tanking" actually bring quality draft picks to the Celtics?

[MikeB12]

I'm not convinced that tanking will result in any significant draft picks which will result in players that will help the Celtics get back to the playoffs anytime soon.

Since college players rarely stay more than 2 years (and are not NBA ready as a result) how often do they end up really contributing in their 1st year or even later.   Unless there are "franchise" college players available (how often does that happen?), I think all this talk and hope that tanking will benefit the Celtics in the long run is probably just a pipe dream.

Also, I do not believe the Celtics are actually losing games (really tanking) to get better draft selections...sorry I just don't think that is true.

I know Danny Ainge helped bring the Celtics their last championship but that was by trading for veterans like Garnett and Allen who will one day be elected to the Hall of Fame, not by college kids thru the draft.

Mike (Celtics fan for over 50 years)

[Eddie20]

I'm not convinced that tanking will result in any significant draft picks which will result in players that will help the Celtics get back to the playoffs anytime soon.

Since college players rarely stay more than 2 years (and are not NBA ready as a result) how often do they end up really contributing in their 1st year or even later.   Unless there are "franchise" college players available (how often does that happen?), I think all this talk and hope that tanking will benefit the Celtics in the long run is probably just a pipe dream.

Also, I do not believe the Celtics are actually losing games (really tanking) to get better draft selections...sorry I just don't think that is true.

I know Danny Ainge helped bring the Celtics their last championship but that was by trading for veterans like Garnett and Allen who will one day be elected to the Hall of Fame, not by college kids thru the draft.

Mike (Celtics fan for over 50 years)

What were the assets they used to acquire Allen and KG in the first place?

[hwangjini_1]

I'm not convinced that tanking will result in any significant draft picks which will result in players that will help the Celtics get back to the playoffs anytime soon.

Since college players rarely stay more than 2 years (and are not NBA ready as a result) how often do they end up really contributing in their 1st year or even later.   Unless there are "franchise" college players available (how often does that happen?), I think all this talk and hope that tanking will benefit the Celtics in the long run is probably just a pipe dream.

Also, I do not believe the Celtics are actually losing games (really tanking) to get better draft selections...sorry I just don't think that is true.

I know Danny Ainge helped bring the Celtics their last championship but that was by trading for veterans like Garnett and Allen who will one day be elected to the Hall of Fame, not by college kids thru the draft.

Mike (Celtics fan for over 50 years)

What were the assets they used to acquire Allen and KG in the first place?

yes. what danny is doing is acquiring assets that can eventually turn into good players. maybe by drafting, maybe by trades. we will see.

also, the rebuild has another few years to go, so drafting a great young talent is fine right now. rondo turned out to be a good investment in youth.

[KeepRondo]

I'm not convinced that tanking will result in any significant draft picks which will result in players that will help the Celtics get back to the playoffs anytime soon.

Since college players rarely stay more than 2 years (and are not NBA ready as a result) how often do they end up really contributing in their 1st year or even later.   Unless there are "franchise" college players available (how often does that happen?), I think all this talk and hope that tanking will benefit the Celtics in the long run is probably just a pipe dream.

Also, I do not believe the Celtics are actually losing games (really tanking) to get better draft selections...sorry I just don't think that is true.

I know Danny Ainge helped bring the Celtics their last championship but that was by trading for veterans like Garnett and Allen who will one day be elected to the Hall of Fame, not by college kids thru the draft.

Mike (Celtics fan for over 50 years)

What were the assets they used to acquire Allen and KG in the first place?

yes. what danny is doing is acquiring assets that can eventually turn into good players. maybe by drafting, maybe by trades. we will see.

also, the rebuild has another few years to go, so drafting a great young talent is fine right now. rondo turned out to be a good investment in youth.

Hopefully the players we get through future drafts are good enough to keep and not trade.

[Quetzalcoatl]

I would argue that Marcus Smart is already a quality player, but so far it has added Marcus Smart, James Young, a 2016 Dallas first rounder, the LA Clippers' 2015 1st rounder, Minnesota's 2016 and 2017 second rounders, Philly's 2015 and 2016 second rounders, Washington's 2015 second rounder, Brooklyn's 2016 1st rounder, the rights to swap with Brooklyn in 2017, Brooklyn's 2018 1st rounder, Dallas' 2016 second rounder, Miami's 2016 second rounder, Cleveland's 2016 second rounder, Memphis' 2017 first rounder, Cleveland's 2017 second rounder, the LA Clippers' 2017 second rounder...I mean are you betting that we won't get a couple "quality" players out of that? 

[MikeB12]

By "quality" players I don't just mean "good" players...in order to win championships you need "great" players...will there be any of those - great players, future HOF players in all the draft picks Danny has accumulated?  I hope so - time will tell.

MikeB12 (Celtics fan for 50+ years)

[SHAQATTACK]

Increases the chance ...but we can see from ET who was a second pic I think ,  you win one and loose a lot before even getting a decent starter at any position.

The top three probably have a higher chance of bring at least a quality starter than say pick 10-20. ....further you go the odds really go down anybody is going to be killer ....Butler and Milsap are accidents

[Chris22]

I think this years draft has some very good big men.

I am hoping we finally get a center.

[chambers]

By "quality" players I don't just mean "good" players...in order to win championships you need "great" players...will there be any of those - great players, future HOF players in all the draft picks Danny has accumulated?  I hope so - time will tell.

MikeB12 (Celtics fan for 50+ years)

So what's your solution if we don't draft a franchise guy? Just ask for the keys to another franchise and hope they'll give him up like KG?

Lets look at the last few decades of NBA champs and their key players....

Wade-Miami x3 +finals appearance. Pick number 3 (added Shaq)
Duncan- Spurs x 3(or 4?) +finals appearance Pick number 1 (joined Robinson first championship as rookie)
Pierce x 1 +finals appearance Pick Number 10 (added KG + Ray Allen)
Dirk Nowitzki x 1 Pick number 9 (drafted by Mavs, added Tyson Chandler DPOY)
Lebron 1x finals appearance Cleveland Pick 1 (drafted by Cavs, added scraps lol)
Kobe 3+ 1 finals appearance pick 13 (Highschool) Drafted by Lakers. (added Shaq, Added Gasol, Drafted Bynum)
Bynum x 1 pick 10 (high school)
Shaq 1 in Orlando Pick number 1
Penny Hardaway 1 in Orlando Via first round pick, attained via trading away Chris Webber
Howard 1 in Orlando pick 1
Durant 1x finals appearance pick 2
Westbrook 1x finals appearance

Lets go back a bit further

Nets Kenyton Martin x 2 finals appearances pick number 1. (added Kidd)
Pacers Reggie Miller pick number 11
Knicks Patrick Ewing pick 1
Allan Houston pick 11
Bulls Jordan x 6 pick 3
Pippen x 6 pick 5
Jazz Malone x2 finals pick 13 (Added Jeff Malone)
Stockton x 2 finals pick 16
Sonics Gary Payton pick 2 (Added Perkins, Schrempf)
Shawn Kemp pick 17
Houston Olajuwan pick 1 x 2 championships (added Drexler + Thorpe)
Spurs David Robinson pick 1 (added Duncan)

[GetLucky]

By "quality" players I don't just mean "good" players...in order to win championships you need "great" players...will there be any of those - great players, future HOF players in all the draft picks Danny has accumulated?  I hope so - time will tell.

MikeB12 (Celtics fan for 50+ years)

So what's your solution if we don't draft a franchise guy? Just ask for the keys to another franchise and hope they'll give him up like KG?

Lets look at the last few decades of NBA champs and their key players....

Wade-Miami x3 +finals appearance. Pick number 3 (added Shaq)
Duncan- Spurs x 3(or 4?) +finals appearance Pick number 1 (joined Robinson first championship as rookie)
Pierce x 1 +finals appearance Pick Number 10 (added KG + Ray Allen)
Dirk Nowitzki x 1 Pick number 9 (drafted by Mavs, added Tyson Chandler DPOY)
Lebron 1x finals appearance Cleveland Pick 1 (drafted by Cavs, added scraps lol)
Kobe 3+ 1 finals appearance pick 13 (Highschool) Drafted by Lakers. (added Shaq, Added Gasol, Drafted Bynum)
Bynum x 1 pick 10 (high school)
Shaq 1 in Orlando Pick number 1
Penny Hardaway 1 in Orlando Via first round pick, attained via trading away Chris Webber
Howard 1 in Orlando pick 1
Durant 1x finals appearance pick 2
Westbrook 1x finals appearance

Lets go back a bit further

Nets Kenyton Martin x 2 finals appearances pick number 1. (added Kidd)
Pacers Reggie Miller pick number 11
Knicks Patrick Ewing pick 1
Allan Houston pick 11
Bulls Jordan x 6 pick 3
Pippen x 6 pick 5
Jazz Malone x2 finals pick 13 (Added Jeff Malone)
Stockton x 2 finals pick 16
Sonics Gary Payton pick 2 (Added Perkins, Schrempf)
Shawn Kemp pick 17
Houston Olajuwan pick 1 x 2 championships (added Drexler + Thorpe)
Spurs David Robinson pick 1 (added Duncan)

Duncan actually has 5 rings and so does Kobe.

[Celtics4ever]

I think we absolutely can get better players than we have the roster with a draft pick.   

[Granath]

By "quality" players I don't just mean "good" players...in order to win championships you need "great" players...will there be any of those - great players, future HOF players in all the draft picks Danny has accumulated?  I hope so - time will tell.

MikeB12 (Celtics fan for 50+ years)

Getting a great player is a crapshoot. The easiest way is to draft in the top 5. Let's look at SI's top 20 players this year (no, I don't agree with the list either, but I need one and this is convenient):

#20 - Dwayne Wade, #5 pick
#19 - Serge Ibaka, #24 pick
#18 - Chris Bosh, #4 pick
#17 - Joakim Noah, #9 pick
#16 - Marc Gasol, #48 pick
#15 - Tony Parker, #28 pick
#14 - Dirk Nowitzki, #9 pick
#13 - James Harden, #3 pick
#12 - LaMarcus Aldridge, #2 pick
#11 - Carmelo Anthony, #3 pick
#10 - Blake Griffin, #1 pick
#09 - Dwight Howard, #1 pick
#08 - Stephen Curry, #7 pick
#07 - Kevin Love, #5 pick
#06 - Anthony Davis, #1 pick
#05 - Tim Duncan, #1 pick
#04 - Russell Westbrook, #4 pick
#03 - Chris Paul, #4 pick
#02 - Kevin Durant, #2 pick
#01 - Lebron James, #1 pick

And I'll add a couple of my own for giggles:

Damien Lillard, #6 pick
Klay Thompson, #11 pick
Demarcus Cousins, #5 pick
Kyrie Irving, #1 pick

There's a pretty clear pattern there. Want a top player? Get a top pick - and then get lucky. Otherwise, it's an absolute crapshoot. For instance, it's not like Philly knew that Vucevic would be great when they drafted him at #16. If they did, they wouldn't have traded him the next year! You're going to need to have some good fortune to get that franchise player.

So if the draft is a two-headed crapshoot - you need to get a high pick and then you need to get lucky - one of the best strategies you could employ is to have as many chances at a high pick as possible. Whether or not that comes to fruition remains to be seen, but Danny's strategy is the correct one. Whether or not it works remains to be seen.

[freshinthehouse]

Good post Graneth.  TP+

[hwangjini_1]

very good post, and deserving of a fabulous tp. 

what would be interesting as well would be to see how many top 5 picks went belly up and did not pan out. how big of a crap shoot is it to have a top five pick...but in any case, i am sure it is less of a crap shoot than any other grouping outside the top 5.

[incoherent]

OP has classic case of denial.

OP doesn't realize NBA teams have 4 years of control over rookies.

Miami drafted Wade.

Spurs drafted Duncan.

Celtics drafted Pierce.

Dallas drafted Dirk.

Bulls drafted Jordan.

Celtics drafted Bird.

Lakers drafted Magic.

OP is out of touch with NBA history even after telling us he's been a fan for 50 years.

OP says we aren't tanking but offers zero reasoning as to why he would think the opposite of something so blatant.

To answer the OP, yes. Tanking will in fact bring quality draft picks to the Celtics, quite literally.