Standings watch for C's picks in 2015

[slamtheking]

STANDINGS WATCH  as of 4/12/15
Boston Pick #13 (2-way tie) right now based on winning % but due to tiebreakers, C's get the #7 seed in the East which would translate into #16

            Games Behind    Current Wins     Games Left    Last 10
Boston            even                  37                      3              7-3
Brooklyn          even                37                     3                  8-2
================Playoff Team Cut-off===============================
Utah                  .5                    37                      2                6-4  different conference
Indiana              1                    36                        7                 6-4
Miami                2.5                 35                        2                 3-7

--> C's seem to have a playoff spot almost locked up.  They have the toughest schedule remaining but cleared one of the big hurdles by beating Cleveland in the previous game.   Question is if Indiana and Brooklyn can keep winning while the C's do their best to take at least 2 of the last 3 games.   Keeping Miami in the list since they can still tie Boston if Boston completely collapses and they win out.

Clips Pick #26  (3-way tie)
                Games Behind    Current Wins   Games Left   Last 10
Memphis           even                    54                 2                 5-5
Clippers             even                    54                 2                 9-1
SA                   even                    54                 2                 10-0
Houston            .5                        53                 3                 7-3
Cleveland         2.5                      51                 3                 8-2

--> Clips have surpassed my expectations this year (unfortunately) and can wind up as high at the #28 pick.   They could still drop to #24 but that would take a miracle for the C's get that lucky.  Keeping Cleveland on only because they can still possibly finish in a tie with Clips.

[slamtheking]

This thread really lost its mojo. Appreciate all the effort but tough to get excited about whether we have the 25th or 26th pick and what low end lottery pick we would end up with if we were to miss the playoffs. At this point I think there are very celtics fans that would rather us have the 12th or 13th pick than make the playoffs and get the 15th

It's a hard thread to keep going as we slide down the lottery.  Still, I'd much rather have the 15 and the playoffs than the 12th or 13th.  I think you left out a word after "very" but I'm not sure if it's "few," "many," etc.  I'm going with "few."

Mike

sorry guys.  did the best I could to keep it entertaining. 

maybe at this point I should rename the thread to Seedings Watch for C's in playoffs?

[saltlover]

This thread really lost its mojo. Appreciate all the effort but tough to get excited about whether we have the 25th or 26th pick and what low end lottery pick we would end up with if we were to miss the playoffs. At this point I think there are very celtics fans that would rather us have the 12th or 13th pick than make the playoffs and get the 15th

It's a hard thread to keep going as we slide down the lottery.  Still, I'd much rather have the 15 and the playoffs than the 12th or 13th.  I think you left out a word after "very" but I'm not sure if it's "few," "many," etc.  I'm going with "few."

Mike

sorry guys.  did the best I could to keep it entertaining. 

maybe at this point I should rename the thread to Seedings Watch for C's in playoffs?

I don't know.  The Clippers pick could end anywhere from 25-28 based on a series of random draws.  I find that a little amusing.  Also, there's still a chance we can get Washington's 2nd round.  They are 2 behind Chicago and Toronto with two to play, so coin flips might matter there as well.  Finally, if we tie Milwaukee in the standings, a random draw would decide whether we pick 16th or 17th, regardless of the fact that Milwaukee holds the tiebreaker for playoff seeding (unless there was a rule change I missed).  And our own second round pick can wind up anywhere between 40 and 46 if we're a playoff team.  There's still a lot to be decided in draft order the final three days.

[mef730]

This thread really lost its mojo. Appreciate all the effort but tough to get excited about whether we have the 25th or 26th pick and what low end lottery pick we would end up with if we were to miss the playoffs. At this point I think there are very celtics fans that would rather us have the 12th or 13th pick than make the playoffs and get the 15th

It's a hard thread to keep going as we slide down the lottery.  Still, I'd much rather have the 15 and the playoffs than the 12th or 13th.  I think you left out a word after "very" but I'm not sure if it's "few," "many," etc.  I'm going with "few."

Mike

sorry guys.  did the best I could to keep it entertaining. 

maybe at this point I should rename the thread to Seedings Watch for C's in playoffs?

TP, no complaints from me. Appreciate all the effort. Since it looks like a seven-seed and Jerian Grant or Sam Dekker in the draft, it's playoff mode!  Prediction:

Celtics over the Cavs in Rd 1 in six games. Cleveland wins the first two but falls apart after LeBron is arrested for running into the stands and punching a guy who looks like Delonte West.  In game six, Isaiah Thomas scores 46 points, with the winning shot being a deflection off Kyrie's head.  Later, Irving declares that he got confused and was sure that Isaiah Thomas played for Detroit, and he couldn't understand how the fans could cheer for a guy who had said all those mean things about Larry Bird.  After learning that there are two Thomases and that they even spell their names differently, he claims to be confused by the injury to his head and accuses Brad Stevens of deflating the basketballs. 

Celtics take Toronto in Rd 2 in six games.  Again, the Celts lose the first two, but recover after Toronto inexplicably sits Kyle Lowry for two games.  Later, the Raptors claim that they were just being nice because they're from Canada and, well, all Canadians are nice.  In an effort to finish the Celts in Toronto, the Raptors hire Hart Foundation favorite referee Dangerous Danny Davis, but end up losing in game six when Jared Sullinger hits 17 3-pointers in a row to rally the Celtics from a 40-point halftime deficit.

Atlanta takes us to seven, but we end up winning.  After the Hawks take a 3-0 lead, Atlanta gets a quarter of an inch of snow and their team bus gets stuck in traffic for a week.  Atlanta stretches us but, in the final game, Lucky the Leprechaun sneaks out of the crowd and hits three members of the Hawks with steel chairs while the refs' backs are turned. 

Golden State beats us in five.  Seriously, you don't think it's realistic that we beat the Warriors, do you?

Mike

[saltlover]

I think a standings watch for the Sixers picks would be amusing.  The Sixers had a potential for up to four 1sts this draft -- their own, the Lakers, the Heat, and the Thunder.

The Lakers pick is Top 5 protected.  LA is locked into the 4 spot, and this pick will only convey if two teams leapfrog them in the lottery.

The Heat pick is Top 10 protected.  If the season ended today, they'd pick 10th (barring the low odds of a 11-14 jumping in the lottery.

The Thunder pick is Top 18 protected.  If they make the playoffs, they would pick 18th.  Otherwise, they're 14th.

In other words, despite trading Michael Carter Williams, Thaddeus Young, and taking on a lot of dead salary for this year and even more for next year, Hinkie would only have his own pick in this year's draft to show for it.

[celticsclay]

I think a standings watch for the Sixers picks would be amusing.  The Sixers had a potential for up to four 1sts this draft -- their own, the Lakers, the Heat, and the Thunder.

The Lakers pick is Top 5 protected.  LA is locked into the 4 spot, and this pick will only convey if two teams leapfrog them in the lottery.

The Heat pick is Top 10 protected.  If the season ended today, they'd pick 10th (barring the low odds of a 11-14 jumping in the lottery.

The Thunder pick is Top 18 protected.  If they make the playoffs, they would pick 18th.  Otherwise, they're 14th.

In other words, despite trading Michael Carter Williams, Thaddeus Young, and taking on a lot of dead salary for this year and even more for next year, Hinkie would only have his own pick in this year's draft to show for it.

This is pretty interesting as I have commented on a few other threads. Normally when a pick conveys a year it is not that bad a thing for the team receiving it. However, in this case, the Miami and OKC pick are probably about the worst picks to lose out on.

OKC with a healthy Durant, Ibaka and Westbrook (and possibly retaining Kanter) projects as a like the 27th-30th pick next year. A few weeks ago it projected as maybe the 18th pick this year. That is a really big loss in value.

Miami - A few weeks to a month ago it project as the 13-16th pick. Next year with a Bosh back, Wade, Whiteside, Deng and the return of some smaller injured players like Napier, Mcroberts this should also be in at least the low 20's.

Lakers - I never really saw the 76ers getting this pick this year. It just wouldn't make sense and would be the worst controlled asset loss I can remember. That being said, if the Lakers put together some sort of offseason and add Randle, a top 5 pick  (even a doomed Rondo Love Kobe trio) they will win at least 30 some games next year if not make the playoffs as a low seed.

I don't think any team wants to have a 4th of their active roster tied up with three mid to low round first round draft picks from the same year, which means more euro or injured players being selected. 

[slamtheking]

I think a standings watch for the Sixers picks would be amusing.  The Sixers had a potential for up to four 1sts this draft -- their own, the Lakers, the Heat, and the Thunder.

The Lakers pick is Top 5 protected.  LA is locked into the 4 spot, and this pick will only convey if two teams leapfrog them in the lottery.

The Heat pick is Top 10 protected.  If the season ended today, they'd pick 10th (barring the low odds of a 11-14 jumping in the lottery.

The Thunder pick is Top 18 protected.  If they make the playoffs, they would pick 18th.  Otherwise, they're 14th.

In other words, despite trading Michael Carter Williams, Thaddeus Young, and taking on a lot of dead salary for this year and even more for next year, Hinkie would only have his own pick in this year's draft to show for it.

This is pretty interesting as I have commented on a few other threads. Normally when a pick conveys a year it is not that bad a thing for the team receiving it. However, in this case, the Miami and OKC pick are probably about the worst picks to lose out on.

OKC with a healthy Durant, Ibaka and Westbrook (and possibly retaining Kanter) projects as a like the 27th-30th pick next year. A few weeks ago it projected as maybe the 18th pick this year. That is a really big loss in value.

Miami - A few weeks to a month ago it project as the 13-16th pick. Next year with a Bosh back, Wade, Whiteside, Deng and the return of some smaller injured players like Napier, Mcroberts this should also be in at least the low 20's.

Lakers - I never really saw the 76ers getting this pick this year. It just wouldn't make sense and would be the worst controlled asset loss I can remember. That being said, if the Lakers put together some sort of offseason and add Randle, a top 5 pick  (even a doomed Rondo Love Kobe trio) they will win at least 30 some games next year if not make the playoffs as a low seed.

I don't think any team wants to have a 4th of their active roster tied up with three mid to low round first round draft picks from the same year, which means more euro or injured players being selected. 

I would love nothing better than that scenario to play out.  Philly trying so hard to get high draft picks by dumping anyone with a minimal talent level would be so sweet to see them get nothing but their own pick this year and picks next year in the 20's which would turn out to be role players if they were lucky.

[slamtheking]

This thread really lost its mojo. Appreciate all the effort but tough to get excited about whether we have the 25th or 26th pick and what low end lottery pick we would end up with if we were to miss the playoffs. At this point I think there are very celtics fans that would rather us have the 12th or 13th pick than make the playoffs and get the 15th

It's a hard thread to keep going as we slide down the lottery.  Still, I'd much rather have the 15 and the playoffs than the 12th or 13th.  I think you left out a word after "very" but I'm not sure if it's "few," "many," etc.  I'm going with "few."

Mike

sorry guys.  did the best I could to keep it entertaining. 

maybe at this point I should rename the thread to Seedings Watch for C's in playoffs?

TP, no complaints from me. Appreciate all the effort. Since it looks like a seven-seed and Jerian Grant or Sam Dekker in the draft, it's playoff mode!  Prediction:

Celtics over the Cavs in Rd 1 in six games. Cleveland wins the first two but falls apart after LeBron is arrested for running into the stands and punching a guy who looks like Delonte West.  In game six, Isaiah Thomas scores 46 points, with the winning shot being a deflection off Kyrie's head.  Later, Irving declares that he got confused and was sure that Isaiah Thomas played for Detroit, and he couldn't understand how the fans could cheer for a guy who had said all those mean things about Larry Bird.  After learning that there are two Thomases and that they even spell their names differently, he claims to be confused by the injury to his head and accuses Brad Stevens of deflating the basketballs. 

Celtics take Toronto in Rd 2 in six games.  Again, the Celts lose the first two, but recover after Toronto inexplicably sits Kyle Lowry for two games.  Later, the Raptors claim that they were just being nice because they're from Canada and, well, all Canadians are nice.  In an effort to finish the Celts in Toronto, the Raptors hire Hart Foundation favorite referee Dangerous Danny Davis, but end up losing in game six when Jared Sullinger hits 17 3-pointers in a row to rally the Celtics from a 40-point halftime deficit.

Atlanta takes us to seven, but we end up winning.  After the Hawks take a 3-0 lead, Atlanta gets a quarter of an inch of snow and their team bus gets stuck in traffic for a week.  Atlanta stretches us but, in the final game, Lucky the Leprechaun sneaks out of the crowd and hits three members of the Hawks with steel chairs while the refs' backs are turned. 

Golden State beats us in five.  Seriously, you don't think it's realistic that we beat the Warriors, do you?

Mike

TP back at ya Mef for being the most loyal follower of the thread.  appreciate all the input you've shared

[mef730]

I have to say, though, that this has been a heck of a year.  Back in the days when Boston had one of the worst records, who would have imagined the following: "Boston will trade Rondo and Green, arguably its two best players, for yet another undersized guard and a bunch of role players.  They will then go on to make the playoffs."  Not me.  I'm on record as of a few months ago predicting the fifth worst record.  Sigh.  These trades weren't quite the equvalent of the Nomar trade, since that Sox team went on to win the whole thing but, well, I never would have predicted that ending.  Then again, the Clippers lose Blake for almost a month and actually get a worse draft spot during that time?

If you like surprises, this season was for you.

Mike

[slamtheking]

I have to say, though, that this has been a heck of a year.  Back in the days when Boston had one of the worst records, who would have imagined the following: "Boston will trade Rondo and Green, arguably its two best players, for yet another undersized guard and a bunch of role players.  They will then go on to make the playoffs."  Not me.  I'm on record as of a few months ago predicting the fifth worst record. Sigh.  These trades weren't quite the equvalent of the Nomar trade, since that Sox team went on to win the whole thing but, well, I never would have predicted that ending.  Then again, the Clippers lose Blake for almost a month and actually get a worse draft spot during that time?

If you like surprises, this season was for you.

Mike

I was predicting that same record at the start of the season.  would not have seen the team getting this much better after trading those 2 players and losing Sully for a fair amount of time this year.

hard to believe that going into the playoffs, this team only has 6 players that were with the team at the end of last season: Sully, KO, AB, Pressey, Bass and Wallace.

[slamtheking]

FINAL STANDINGS WATCH  as of the end of the regular season
Boston Pick #16 due to #7 seed in Eastern conference. 

            Games Behind    Current Wins     Games Left    Last 10
Milwaukee       +1                        41                   0                 5-5
Boston            even                  40                     0               8-2
Phoenix           1                         39                    0                 1-9  (different conference)
Brooklyn          2                         38                     0                6-4
================Playoff Team Cut-off===============================
Indiana             2                         38                     0              7-3
Utah                 2                         38                     0              7-3  different conference
Miami               3                         37                     0              4-6

--> Winning percentage would have had them at #15 so only one team in the West with a better record will get a better pick than them -- of course that's OKC so it's another case of the rich getting richer.  In the end, C's were in a very tight cluster of teams where 2 wins or losses could have swung their position in the playoffs and the draft.

Clips Pick #27/#28 - to be determined by coin flip with Houston
                Games Behind    Current Wins   Games Left   Last 10
Houston           even                      56                   0                 7-3
Clippers            even                      56                   0                 9-1
Memphis           1                         55                    0                5-5
SA                     1                        55                    0                9-1
Cleveland          3                         53                    0                7-3

--> just so aggravated neither Cleveland nor SA could catch and pass them.   even more frustrated that Memphis, Dallas, Portland and the Rockets couldn't hold on to their advantage over them.  the fact the Clips put on a real push late in the season irritated me too.  need to break out my thesaurus for new ways to to express my displeasure at how this pick turned out.

Thanks to those who kept up with reading the thread.   I may do this again next year when the C's are looking at getting their pick, the Nets pick and the Dallas pick.  maybe I'll track the second rounder too just to drive myself crazy   

[jonaslopes]

FINAL STANDINGS WATCH  as of the end of the regular season
Boston Pick #16 due to #7 seed in Eastern conference. 

            Games Behind    Current Wins     Games Left    Last 10
Milwaukee       +1                        41                   0                 5-5
Boston            even                  40                     0               8-2
Phoenix           1                         39                    0                 1-9  (different conference)
Brooklyn          2                         38                     0                6-4
================Playoff Team Cut-off===============================
Indiana             2                         38                     0              7-3
Utah                 2                         38                     0              7-3  different conference
Miami               3                         37                     0              4-6

--> Winning percentage would have had them at #15 so only one team in the West with a better record will get a better pick than them -- of course that's OKC so it's another case of the rich getting richer.  In the end, C's were in a very tight cluster of teams where 2 wins or losses could have swung their position in the playoffs and the draft.

Clips Pick #27/#28 - to be determined by coin flip with Houston
                Games Behind    Current Wins   Games Left   Last 10
Houston           even                      56                   0                 7-3
Clippers            even                      56                   0                 9-1
Memphis           1                         55                    0                5-5
SA                     1                        55                    0                9-1
Cleveland          3                         53                    0                7-3

--> just so aggravated neither Cleveland nor SA could catch and pass them.   even more frustrated that Memphis, Dallas, Portland and the Rockets couldn't hold on to their advantage over them.  the fact the Clips put on a real push late in the season irritated me too.  need to break out my thesaurus for new ways to to express my displeasure at how this pick turned out.

Thanks to those who kept up with reading the thread.   I may do this again next year when the C's are looking at getting their pick, the Nets pick and the Dallas pick.  maybe I'll track the second rounder too just to drive myself crazy   

Thanks a lot for this thread. I've been reading for months! Useful and amazing effort.

[slamtheking]

FINAL STANDINGS WATCH  as of the end of the regular season
Boston Pick #16 due to #7 seed in Eastern conference. 

            Games Behind    Current Wins     Games Left    Last 10
Milwaukee       +1                        41                   0                 5-5
Boston            even                  40                     0               8-2
Phoenix           1                         39                    0                 1-9  (different conference)
Brooklyn          2                         38                     0                6-4
================Playoff Team Cut-off===============================
Indiana             2                         38                     0              7-3
Utah                 2                         38                     0              7-3  different conference
Miami               3                         37                     0              4-6

--> Winning percentage would have had them at #15 so only one team in the West with a better record will get a better pick than them -- of course that's OKC so it's another case of the rich getting richer.  In the end, C's were in a very tight cluster of teams where 2 wins or losses could have swung their position in the playoffs and the draft.

Clips Pick #27/#28 - to be determined by coin flip with Houston
                Games Behind    Current Wins   Games Left   Last 10
Houston           even                      56                   0                 7-3
Clippers            even                      56                   0                 9-1
Memphis           1                         55                    0                5-5
SA                     1                        55                    0                9-1
Cleveland          3                         53                    0                7-3

--> just so aggravated neither Cleveland nor SA could catch and pass them.   even more frustrated that Memphis, Dallas, Portland and the Rockets couldn't hold on to their advantage over them.  the fact the Clips put on a real push late in the season irritated me too.  need to break out my thesaurus for new ways to to express my displeasure at how this pick turned out.

Thanks to those who kept up with reading the thread.   I may do this again next year when the C's are looking at getting their pick, the Nets pick and the Dallas pick.  maybe I'll track the second rounder too just to drive myself crazy   

Thanks a lot for this thread. I've been reading for months! Useful and amazing effort.

thanks Jonas - TP for following along!

[saltlover]

The silver lining (such that it is) in our draft picks being worse than expected (aside from an exciting regular season culminating in a playoff berth) is that we've saved a little cap space by getting picks with lower cap hold values (about a million or so based on final standings projections from around the trade deadline).  In an offseason where every penny might matter, we now have the room for one max, Crowder, and one of Bass or Jerebko to get about $4 million (if that's what the market dictated).  So we could return virtually our entire team and add a max player to it.  If Danny can convince the right max player to come here, we could be looking at another big step forward in 2015.  And if Brookyln and Dallas keep taking steps backwards next year, we can have this thread all over again, but without the gnashing of teeth about tanking!

[slamtheking]

The silver lining (such that it is) in our draft picks being worse than expected (aside from an exciting regular season culminating in a playoff berth) is that we've saved a little cap space by getting picks with lower cap hold values (about a million or so based on final standings projections from around the trade deadline).  In an offseason where every penny might matter, we now have the room for one max, Crowder, and one of Bass or Jerebko to get about $4 million (if that's what the market dictated).  So we could return virtually our entire team and add a max player to it.  If Danny can convince the right max player to come here, we could be looking at another big step forward in 2015.  And if Brookyln and Dallas keep taking steps backwards next year, we can have this thread all over again, but without the gnashing of teeth about tanking!

TP for the positive spin on this situation. 

I wouldn't mind doing this again next season with a happier twist of splitting it into a draft pick watch for the Brooklyn and Dallas picks and a playoff watch for the C's