Standings watch for C's picks in 2015

[mef730]

TP to artic 3.0.  This draft > next year's draft, so here's hoping they fall apart.

Just so everyone can see it, Dallas' next games are:

vs Clippers
vs OKC
vs Magic
vs Memphis
@ Phoenix
vs San Antonio
@ San Antonio
@ Indy
@ OKC
vs Houston
vs Golden State
vs Phoenix
@ Denver
@ Los Angeles
@ Utah
vs Portland

I mean, they really are looking terrible right now and through the second Phoenix game caps off just a brutal stretch.  Meanwhile, the Pellies are up against:

vs Denver
vs Milwaukee
@ Phoenix
@ Golden State
@ LAC
vs Houston
vs Sactown
vs Minny
@ LAL
@ Sacramento
@ Portland
vs Golden State
@ Memphis
vs Phoenix
@ Houston
@ Minny
vs San Antonio

So in other words, the Mavs have 6/16 games vs Lottery teams and only Denver and LAL are going to be layups.  The Pelicans have 8/17 vs lottery games and they are against much worse lotto teams at that.  I mean, I'm counting the Suns as a lottery team and the Bucks as a playoff team, but which one would you rather play? 

I mean, would you take this bet right now?  If the Mavs go to the playoffs, you win $5 million.  If they don't, you die.  I wouldn't take that bet.

I'll do it for 1/8.

But I don't want them missing the playoffs this year, anyway.  I think they're a 8-12 lottery pick next year.  And I also think Minnesota improves dramatically, giving us a shot at their unprotected 13 or 14.

Mike

[jpotter33]

How far can the Clips realistically fall, since that's our only sure pick from another team this year?

Hate to do it, but you have to give them credit for not falling apart without Griffin. I didn't think they'd miss the playoffs, but I thought they'd be fighting in the seventh or eighth see by now.

I just don't see the Mavs falling that far.

[mef730]

How far can the Clips realistically fall, since that's our only sure pick from another team this year?

Hate to do it, but you have to give them credit for not falling apart without Griffin. I didn't think they'd miss the playoffs, but I thought they'd be fighting in the seventh or eighth see by now.

I just don't see the Mavs falling that far.

Clippers are at #25 with 18 games to go.  Maybe they fall behind San Antonio (1/2 game behind) or Cleveland (1 game behind).  Not going to fall behind Dallas (1), Chicago (2.5) or Toronto (3).  In a best-case scenario, it's #23.  Cleveland's on a roll, so let's call it pick #24.  I see Tyus Jones (possibly Caris LeVert) in our future.

At this point, I'm rooting for Dallas to win.  No reason for them to get a better than necessary pick.

Mike

[slamtheking]

STANDINGS WATCH  as of 3/13/15
Boston Pick #10 right now based on winning %
            Games Behind    Current Wins     Games Left    Last 10
Indiana             +2.5                 30                      18               9-1
Miami              +1.5                  29                      18               6-4
================Playoff Team Cut-off===============================
Charlotte          +1                    28                       19               6-4
Utah                 +.5                   28                       18               8-2
Boston            even                27                      19                 7-3
Brooklyn          2                      25                     19                3-7

--> no change in position.  have to admit I was wrong about the team this season -- they actually WILL finish closer to a playoff spot than the worst 5 records.  I will say though that my projections were based on the original roster and not this incredible group of overachievers.  Dropped Denver, Detroit and Sac from the list based on them all falling 4 or more games behind the C's.  looking like the highest pick they could get is #9 and that's only if Brooklyn gets it together.

Clips Pick #25
                Games Behind    Current Wins   Games Left   Last 10
Portland           +1.5                    42                   20                 7-3
Houston            +1                       43                   17                 6-4
Clippers            even                     42                   17                 6-4
Cleveland         1                         42                  15                 7-3
SA                    1.5                      40                   18                6-4
Dallas               1.5                       41                   16                5-5
Chicago              2.5                       40                   16                5-5
Toronto              3.5                      38                   18                 1-9

--> no change in position.  hard to believe Cleveland and SA have not passed these guys in the standings yet.  still plenty of time for them to do so.  I'm really doubting Dallas' ability to get it together this year and catch the Clips but I think they'll hang on for a playoff spot over one of OKC and NO (most likely NO)

[Future Celtics Owner]

I am praying that we lose the majority of our final games from this point on. I think it is very possible that we could go from having the 10th worst record to the 7th. In our way are the Nets, Nuggets, and Pistons.

I am not betting on winning the lottery but I do believe with the 7th worst record we would be most likely to get the 8th pick.......which aint bad.

[slamtheking]

I am praying that we lose the majority of our final games from this point on. I think it is very possible that we could go from having the 10th worst record to the 7th. In our way are the Nets, Nuggets, and Pistons.

I am not betting on winning the lottery but I do believe with the 7th worst record we would be most likely to get the 8th pick.......which aint bad.

I don't see that happening.  I still consider almost every other team in the league to have better talent (overall) than the C's except Philly, NY and LA (with Melo and Kobe out).  I thought for sure teams with better rosters/players with higher talent levels would win out over the C's over the course of the season but that certainly hasn't occurred.  C's likely looking at anywhere from 10-12 depending on whether they catch Utah and Charlotte by the end of the year.  I don't see Detroit climbing past them any longer and I don't think the C's can overcome 2 of Indy/Miami/Charlotte to make the playoffs.
If I was prognosticating based on things at the moment, I think in the end the C's get #11 by passing Utah but not catching anyone else in the East and unfortunately not getting lucky in the draft to jump into the top 3.  I also don't see Dallas missing the playoffs due to their 4+ game leads on OKC and NO for the #7 spot in the West so their pick won't convey to us this year (not sure if that's a good thing or not since I'm not convinced they'll be in a state to miss the playoffs next year based on Cuban likely to push for moves to make them better while Dirk's still there).

[mef730]

TP for what is quickly becoming my favorite thread here.  Don't know what I'm going to do over the summer.  Stratomatic basketball?

I'm actually rooting for the playoffs this year, which puts me in a different position than many.  Rationally, I understand that a lottery pick is better than a non-lottery pick.  But, for the first season in several, I'm having a lot of fun watching these guys.  It's hard not to root for them.  Ultimately, however, I may end up getting most of what I want.  I'm going to be rooting for them, but I don't think they'll make the playoffs.  I do think that it's possible, since Miami looks awful and Charlotte can't seem to get out of their own way, but we'd need to get lucky twice.  I think catching Indy is out. 

Had somebody asked me at the beginning of the season, I would have put as at the 6th pick.  Now, I'll stay at 11.  Since virtually every other prediction I've made this year has been wrong, no reason this one shouldn't be.  Still, with only 19 games left and only Utah, Brooklyn, Miami and Charlotte within 2 games of us, it's going to be increasingly difficult to move much.  Sure, DA could decide to bring back Conner Henry for the remainder of the year and tell him to start chucking threes every game, but that's a bit unlikely.  10 or 11?  A lot of it will depend on who the top teams play in the last few games in April, since we see a lot of Cleveland and Toronto toward the end of the year.

Bottom line: All I know is that if I'm saying 11, it won't be 11.  Hopefully I'm wrong in the right direction.

Mike

[slamtheking]

TP for the praise Mef.  glad to hear someone's liking the effort.

[slamtheking]

Don't look now but by tonight the C's could be in the playoffs -- a C's win against Philly (very likely) and losses by Miami and Charlotte (very possible) and C's have the 8th spot

[mef730]

Don't look now but by tonight the C's could be in the playoffs -- a C's win against Philly (very likely) and losses by Miami and Charlotte (very possible) and C's have the 8th spot

Oh, it's even better than that.  There are four teams within a game of each other, including us a game behind Indy and 0.5 behind Miami and Charlotte.  We could be a seven-seed (and end up facing Cleveland instead of Atlanta, somewhat of a Pyrrhic victory)!  Come over to the dark side and join us rooting for the playoffs!  The snacks are great.

Mike

[Tr1boy]

Expect the 15th pick

[slamtheking]

Don't look now but by tonight the C's could be in the playoffs -- a C's win against Philly (very likely) and losses by Miami and Charlotte (very possible) and C's have the 8th spot

Oh, it's even better than that.  There are four teams within a game of each other, including us a game behind Indy and 0.5 behind Miami and Charlotte.  We could be a seven-seed (and end up facing Cleveland instead of Atlanta, somewhat of a Pyrrhic victory)!  Come over to the dark side and join us rooting for the playoffs!  The snacks are great.

Mike

been rooting for playoffs right along -- just didn't think we had any shot at them this year.  still don't think we'll pass 2 of Miami, Indy or Charlotte at the end of the season but it's a fun ride while it lasts.

[mef730]

Don't look now but by tonight the C's could be in the playoffs -- a C's win against Philly (very likely) and losses by Miami and Charlotte (very possible) and C's have the 8th spot

Oh, it's even better than that.  There are four teams within a game of each other, including us a game behind Indy and 0.5 behind Miami and Charlotte.  We could be a seven-seed (and end up facing Cleveland instead of Atlanta, somewhat of a Pyrrhic victory)!  Come over to the dark side and join us rooting for the playoffs!  The snacks are great.

Mike

been rooting for playoffs right along -- just didn't think we had any shot at them this year.  still don't think we'll pass 2 of Miami, Indy or Charlotte at the end of the season but it's a fun ride while it lasts.

Would love to see us pass a couple of them and end up in the playoffs.  A few weeks ago, I thought it was impossible.  Now I'm talking about a 7-seed.  I feel like a yo-yo.

Mike

[slamtheking]

C's now in a 4-way tie for the #11 pick and 3-way tie for the 7 & 8 spots in the playoffs.

no way anyone could have seen this happening at the beginning of the season.  unreal

[MBunge]

The Clippers pick is also currently #23 with a very good chance of sliding to at least #22.  It' s highly unlikely the Clips' pick will fall further than #21 but that's still an amazing return for a coach who wanted to leave.

Mike