Standings watch for C's picks in 2015

[mef730]

Rats, just noticed a mistake I made upthread.  We actually lose the tie-breaker to Charlotte.  Division record only counts if you are in the same division.

Mike

[celticsclay]

This thread really lost its mojo. Appreciate all the effort but tough to get excited about whether we have the 25th or 26th pick and what low end lottery pick we would end up with if we were to miss the playoffs. At this point I think there are very celtics fans that would rather us have the 12th or 13th pick than make the playoffs and get the 15th

[mef730]

This thread really lost its mojo. Appreciate all the effort but tough to get excited about whether we have the 25th or 26th pick and what low end lottery pick we would end up with if we were to miss the playoffs. At this point I think there are very celtics fans that would rather us have the 12th or 13th pick than make the playoffs and get the 15th

It's a hard thread to keep going as we slide down the lottery.  Still, I'd much rather have the 15 and the playoffs than the 12th or 13th.  I think you left out a word after "very" but I'm not sure if it's "few," "many," etc.  I'm going with "few."

Mike

[celticsclay]

You are correct sir!

[mef730]

Sad to say, but with Miami's win last night, I think we're looking at a missed playoff berth and about the 11th worst record.  We have five games left, 2XCleveland, Detroit, Toronto and Milwaukee.  Miami plays Orlando, Philly, Chicago and Toronto.  If each team wins three, they win the tie-breaker.

Brooklyn has a game on us.  We'd need some help from them, but their schedule is slightly easier than ours.

And if we end up tied with Utah again this year, I vote that we automatically win the coin flip.

The wild card, of course, is who rests their players before the playoffs.  Cleveland and Atlanta both have that opportunity.

Mike

[celticsclay]

Sad to say, but with Miami's win last night, I think we're looking at a missed playoff berth and about the 11th worst record.  We have five games left, 2XCleveland, Detroit, Toronto and Milwaukee.  Miami plays Orlando, Philly, Chicago and Toronto.  If each team wins three, they win the tie-breaker.

Brooklyn has a game on us.  We'd need some help from them, but their schedule is slightly easier than ours.

And if we end up tied with Utah again this year, I vote that we automatically win the coin flip.

The wild card, of course, is who rests their players before the playoffs.  Cleveland and Atlanta both have that opportunity.

Mike

How is Miami's win at home in a game they were favored to win some big thing in the playoff race? Their next two games they will be slight underdogs in against Chicago and Toronto, two teams still jockeying for position. They also have lost 4 games previous to the small win last night including an absolute choke job against Detroit in a game they were big favorites. On top of that Deng and Whitesite both battling injuries that really bother them.

If Boston loses tonight, we can say the are in rough shape, but as of right now last night's win for Miami definitely is not the final say in the race and that is an over the top reaction to an expected outcome. 

[mef730]

I"m not saying that's the final say, just that I think it's more likely than not that we don't make the playoffs.  To be clear, I'm not rooting for the lottery, but that does appear to be the way the math points.  Hollinger also has us as about 38% to make the playoffs at this point.

http://espn.go.com/nba/hollinger/playoffodds

Last night's Miami game isn't a big thing in and of itself, but it was one of the games that I thought they had a chance of losing.  I'm assuming that Orlando and Philly are going to be wins for them.  If they win one of the other two, we have to win four out of five.  Even if they lose both of the others, it's not easy.

We have a tough remaining schedule.  Three wins (again, for the sake of the example, not making any assumptions about what Cleveland does) won't come easily.  We will have an advantage in the game against Milwaukee in that they will likely have their seed locked up, but who knows what they will do.

The biggest thing we have going for us now is that Miami is really banged up.

Mike

[celticsclay]

I"m not saying that's the final say, just that I think it's more likely than not that we don't make the playoffs.  To be clear, I'm not rooting for the lottery, but that does appear to be the way the math points.  Hollinger also has us as about 38% to make the playoffs at this point.

http://espn.go.com/nba/hollinger/playoffodds

Last night's Miami game isn't a big thing in and of itself, but it was one of the games that I thought they had a chance of losing.  I'm assuming that Orlando and Philly are going to be wins for them.  If they win one of the other two, we have to win four out of five.  Even if they lose both of the others, it's not easy.

We have a tough remaining schedule.  Three wins (again, for the sake of the example, not making any assumptions about what Cleveland does) won't come easily.  We will have an advantage in the game against Milwaukee in that they will likely have their seed locked up, but who knows what they will do.

The biggest thing we have going for us now is that Miami is really banged up.

Mike

Is Hollinger's model really useful right now? The factors we have both mentioned (whether Whiteside and Deng can play) as well as who Cleveland decides to play with their seed locked up are way bigger factors than what Cleveland has done in the year to date. I personally would be shocked if the Cavs big 3 play both games. If two of them happen to sit in the same game we become a pretty big favorite. I am also not sure if Hollinger's model takes into account recent play The heat have lost 7 of their last 10 and a 5 point home win over a Charlotte team without Jefferson doesn't seem particularly impressive. The sad thing is if we had just beat the Heat a week or so back we would be in the driver seat.

[BudweiserCeltic]

I"m not saying that's the final say, just that I think it's more likely than not that we don't make the playoffs.  To be clear, I'm not rooting for the lottery, but that does appear to be the way the math points.  Hollinger also has us as about 38% to make the playoffs at this point.

http://espn.go.com/nba/hollinger/playoffodds

Last night's Miami game isn't a big thing in and of itself, but it was one of the games that I thought they had a chance of losing.  I'm assuming that Orlando and Philly are going to be wins for them.  If they win one of the other two, we have to win four out of five.  Even if they lose both of the others, it's not easy.

We have a tough remaining schedule.  Three wins (again, for the sake of the example, not making any assumptions about what Cleveland does) won't come easily.  We will have an advantage in the game against Milwaukee in that they will likely have their seed locked up, but who knows what they will do.

The biggest thing we have going for us now is that Miami is really banged up.

Mike

Is Hollinger's model really useful right now? The factors we have both mentioned (whether Whiteside and Deng can play) as well as who Cleveland decides to play with their seed locked up are way bigger factors than what Cleveland has done in the year to date. I personally would be shocked if the Cavs big 3 play both games. If two of them happen to sit in the same game we become a pretty big favorite. I am also not sure if Hollinger's model takes into account recent play The heat have lost 7 of their last 10 and a 5 point home win over a Charlotte team without Jefferson doesn't seem particularly impressive. The sad thing is if we had just beat the Heat a week or so back we would be in the driver seat.

Hollinger's model does take into account recent play, since it's based off his Team Rankings that does incorporate that.

[celticsclay]

I"m not saying that's the final say, just that I think it's more likely than not that we don't make the playoffs.  To be clear, I'm not rooting for the lottery, but that does appear to be the way the math points.  Hollinger also has us as about 38% to make the playoffs at this point.

http://espn.go.com/nba/hollinger/playoffodds

Last night's Miami game isn't a big thing in and of itself, but it was one of the games that I thought they had a chance of losing.  I'm assuming that Orlando and Philly are going to be wins for them.  If they win one of the other two, we have to win four out of five.  Even if they lose both of the others, it's not easy.

We have a tough remaining schedule.  Three wins (again, for the sake of the example, not making any assumptions about what Cleveland does) won't come easily.  We will have an advantage in the game against Milwaukee in that they will likely have their seed locked up, but who knows what they will do.

The biggest thing we have going for us now is that Miami is really banged up.

Mike

Is Hollinger's model really useful right now? The factors we have both mentioned (whether Whiteside and Deng can play) as well as who Cleveland decides to play with their seed locked up are way bigger factors than what Cleveland has done in the year to date. I personally would be shocked if the Cavs big 3 play both games. If two of them happen to sit in the same game we become a pretty big favorite. I am also not sure if Hollinger's model takes into account recent play The heat have lost 7 of their last 10 and a 5 point home win over a Charlotte team without Jefferson doesn't seem particularly impressive. The sad thing is if we had just beat the Heat a week or so back we would be in the driver seat.

Hollinger's model does take into account recent play, since it's based off his Team Rankings that does incorporate that.

Good to know, I guess obviously it doesn't take into account the other stuff (banged up player, injuries, teams resting etc). It would be pretty cool if could actually benefit from players resting down the stretch as it has really seemed to benefit all of these other teams except us so far.

[spikelovetheCelts]

I am just Glad tonight's game is on ESPN so I can hear some different announcers for a change. Go Celtics

[smiggity]

Nate Silver's 538 Blog now favors the Celtics to make the playoffs, placing the odds at 57%. http://fivethirtyeight.com/datalab/nba-power-ratings-and-playoff-odds-celtics-and-nets-up-heat-and-pacers-down/
 
By contrast, Hollinger's ratings project that the Celtics will be on the outside looking in, placing their playoff odds at 37.8%. http://espn.go.com/nba/hollinger/playoffodds

My understanding is that while Hollinger's projections weight recent play, the 538 projections include additional factors, such as relative health of teams, making it potentially a better predictor, particularly over a short stretch of time.

[celticsclay]

Nate Silver's 538 Blog now favors the Celtics to make the playoffs, placing the odds at 57%. http://fivethirtyeight.com/datalab/nba-power-ratings-and-playoff-odds-celtics-and-nets-up-heat-and-pacers-down/
 
By contrast, Hollinger's ratings project that the Celtics will be on the outside looking in, placing their playoff odds at 37.8%. http://espn.go.com/nba/hollinger/playoffodds

My understanding is that while Hollinger's projections weight recent play, the 538 projections include additional factors, such as relative health of teams, making it potentially a better predictor, particularly over a short stretch of time.

This sounds a little more reasonable.

[mef730]

Well, 24 hours can certainly make things more interesting, can't they?  Two bonuses for us:

1) Of the five remaining games, Detroit was, as of a couple of days ago, the one we were most likely to win, so it wasn't a shocker, but we've now got that full game lead against Miami, with each team having four remaining.  And Brooklyn's loss was the game that they were most likely to lose, so no shocker there, either.  My feeling that we wouldn't make the playoffs would have been relatively unchanged, except...

2) If LeBron rests, as been hinted at, that obviously makes a huge difference for us.  Hey, no reason not to rest him.  For that matter, why send any of the top players to Boston for a Sunday game after which, you will have to turn around and fly them back home for a game the next night?  Leave 'em home, I say. 

3) Miami still has an easier schedule than we do.  They're playing hurt, but I have to believe that they beat Orlando, Philly, and one of Chicago or Toronto.  2-2 over their next four games, however, would make me very, very happy.

4) The math is interesting for Indiana, but better for us than them, only because Boston > Indiana in a tie-breaker.  Of course, head-to-head, Indy>Miami, Brookyn>Indy and Miami>Boston, Brooklyn.  Alice, Bill, Charlie, David and Edgar were in a line...

5) We're now at 59%, per Hollinger, for the playoffs.

What are the chances that we can convince Cleveland to rest LeBron for the playoffs if we are the 7-seed?

Mike

[aporel#18]

Washington's loss coupled with Dallas, Toronto and Chicago recent wins likely put an end to our chance to get Washington's second rounder (top 49 protected).

But we still have 2 firsts and 2 seconds.

Go Celtics!