Standings watch for C's picks in 2015

[celticsclay]

Thanks for the update!

Hopefully, Detroit will continue its second half run and beat us out.  I have no clue what's going to happen with Denver. 

I've always believed that LA was out of reach but that we could "catch" Orlando.  But they've really fallen off a cliff may also be out of reach soon.  That leaves Sacramento, Utah and Indiana within range (I'm not ruling out Brooklyn falling below us, although they have no incentive to tank.  They're just playing lousy ball).  If either Sac or Utah was in the east, they'd be doing much better.  But they aren't.  Indiana could get George back for a few games, but the team has no reason to rush him and he's going to be rusty.  Utah, though, is the one that really worries me.

Previously, I had thought we would be the 5th or 6th worst team, but it's increasingly looking like 7 now.  Assuming pick #8.

Mike 

I share similar sentiments on how things are looking.  thought we were a bottom 5 team to start the season but with more-talented teams drastically underperforming and with our own guys overachieving since the trades, it's looking like we'll be somewhere around 7-9 at this rate.  at least #9 worked out for the Cavs last year

I only wish.  Unfortunately, our luck and Cleveland's luck are like Samuel L Jackson and Bruce Willis in Unbreakable, that movie where BW can't be harmed and SLJ, whose bones seem to be made of glass.

Mike

Denver has completely collapsed and shaw will be fired pretty soon. They will also trade at least one of chandler, affalo, faried and lawson by the deadline.

Sacramento has also completely collapsed and are not even trying to play defense. I think they are not inspired at all by Corbin because they look awful.

1) New York
2) Philly
3) Minnesota
4) Lakers
5) Orlando
6) Sacramento
7) Denver
Boston, Utah, Indiana, Brooklyn, Detroit, Charlotte in some order

Hard to see us higher than an 8th pick. 10th most likely if not in playoffs.

you could very well be right but just based on purely a talent comparison, C's are no better than the 5th-6th worst team.  we should get a better picture of how things will shake out after the trade deadline passes. 

C's roster doesn't have the talent to really pull off more than another 5-6 wins this season.  granted, a lot of other teams are just stinking up the league so it's possible they could win even less games but based on rosters, the other teams with a record currently better than the Lakers should win more games than us.

The rest of the season we play the following 14 games
Philly at home
Knicks at home
Charlotte at home
Sacramento on road
Utah at home
Orlando at home
Orlando on road
Philly at home again
Detroit at home
Indiana on road
Knicks on Road
Brooklyn on Road
Indiana at home
Charlotte on Road

Plus we have a few games at the end of the season against Cavs, Bucks, and Raptors that all may be resting players for playoffs and some additional games against teams with losing records I have not included
Going 5-9 in the 14 games I listed, especially considering more are at home would be a bit of a stretch. Also assuming we somehow don't win a game against a single decent team is a bit of a stretch. Also assuming we dont get a garbage win at end of season because of resting players is a stretch.

10-11 wins seems a lot more likely than 5.

I agree.  The 1 asterisk I see on your list is that Charlotte is playing well and they embarrassed us both times we played.

Charlotte is playing the best of the teams on there (especially since Detroit lost Jennings for the year). I would say winning at Charlotte is possible, but  is the toughest game of the ones i listed. I think at home it would still be a pick em. I also accidentally left of an extremely winnable game at the Lakers and some tougher but still winnable ones against the bucks at home or against miami at home.  I would personally be surprised if we didn't get to at least 28 and would not be surprised if we got into the low 30's. Another thing to keep in mind is that BS had these guys playing really hard. We are very rarely blown out despite our talent level. That also increases the chances of us stealing games, especially when we start to catch teams giving their players days off to prepare for the playoffs. 

[slamtheking]

STANDINGS WATCH  as of 2/13/15 -- ALL STAR BREAK
Boston Pick #11 right now based on winning %
            Games Behind    Current Wins     Games Left    Last 10
Charlotte          +1.5                  22                      30               5-5
Miami              +1.5                  22                      30               4-6
================Playoff Team Cut-off===============================
Brooklyn          +.5                    21                      30                3-7
Boston            even                20                      31                 5-5
Detroit              .5                      21 (+1)               28                4-6
Indiana             .5                     21 (+1)                28                6-4
Denver             1                      20 (even)            29                2-8
Utah                  2                     19                       29                4-6
Sacramento       2.5                  18                       30                2-8

--> with the season shortening, the C's could still wind up anywhere from 6th in the lottery to #8 in the playoffs.  so many teams bunching up.  Every team still in the C's neighborhood in terms of record still has

more talent than the C's so it's not inconceivable that they get it together enough to all pass the C's.
NOTE: first time is a long time this season that the C's no longer have the smallest point differential of teams with losing records having been surpassed by Indy.  Odd in light of the C's recent good play.

Clips Pick #23
                Games Behind    Current Wins   Games Left   Last 10
Houston            +1.5                     36                   29                 7-3
Portland           +1.5                     36                   29                 5-8
Toronto             +1.5                     36                   29                 8-2
Dallas               +.5                       36                   27                 6-4
Clippers            even                     35                   28                 5-5
SA                     .5                         34                   29                 7-3
Chicago              1                         34                   28                 6-4
Wash                 2                         33                   28                 4-6
Cleveland         2.5                       33                   27                 8-2

-->Clips starting to slide without Blake.  A prolonged absense could see them even miss the playoffs possibly but would need a real push from SA (who I expect to overtake them in the next 5 games), PHX, OKC

and NO all of which have a number of games they need to catch up to get into the discussion.

[sofutomygaha]

My new dream is to make the playoffs and have the Clippers land in the lottery. Oh lord, how amazing would that be.

[mef730]

As always, thank you for the update. 

I'm not willing to rule out a 7-seed in the playoffs (No, I haven't started drinking in the morning.).  Brooklyn has given up.  We'll pass them shortly.  Miami is beatable.  The only one I really worry about is Charlotte, who has been moving in the right direction. 

I would love to see the Clippers in the lottery.  Obviously unlikely to happen, but they could slip into a top-20 pick.

Mike

[slamtheking]

As always, thank you for the update. 

I'm not willing to rule out a 7-seed in the playoffs (No, I haven't started drinking in the morning.).  Brooklyn has given up.  We'll pass them shortly.  Miami is beatable.  The only one I really worry about is Charlotte, who has been moving in the right direction. 

I would love to see the Clippers in the lottery.  Obviously unlikely to happen, but they could slip into a top-20 pick.

Mike

don't know if the C's will climb to the 7 playoff slot (don't think they'll make the playoffs at all actually) but would absolutely love to see the Clips passed over by a couple of teams so they just miss the playoffs.  dream would be to have them also win the lottery and be able to rub their noses in the Doc trade even more.  even if the Clips make the playoffs (probably happen) I really think their pick will be in the high teens when the season finishes.  that would be much better than what most people expected this year.

[slamtheking]

My new dream is to make the playoffs and have the Clippers land in the lottery. Oh lord, how amazing would that be.

that would put a big smile on my face - if Clips won the lottery (as they've done 3 times already) I'd probably die from laughing too hard.

[Tr1boy]

Justin Anderson looks good. Has a nba body already. 6'6 but 6'11 wingspan

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XFMcsrcudJ0

[Quetzalcoatl]

So the current 8 seed in the East is the Miami Heat, who just acquired Goran Dragic.  I'm pretty sure they're going to now improve on their 22-30 record and will probably be an extremely annoying out in the playoffs.

Right above them in the 7th seed at also 22-30 is the Charlotte Hornets, who didn't make any moves but Kemba Walker should be coming back around March 16th and they will also get MGK back soon.  I'm guessing even if they play .400 ball for the next month, Kemba will give them some wins right before the end of the season.

Then for the 1-6 seeds its the Hawks, Raptors, Bulls, Wizards, Cavaliers and the Bucks, all of whom are essentially locked into the playoffs right now.

The Brooklyn Nets are sitting at 21-31 and didn't make any real moves at the deadline.  They're one game out of the playoffs and one game ahead of us.  We're at 20-31 and just acquired Isaiah, but our best player right now is Sully and he is out indefinitely.

The Pistons are at 21-33 and just improved their team immensely with Reggie Jackson and Tayshaun.  The Pacers are getting George back soon, who is a superstar.

I think it's pretty safe to say we're officially not making the playoffs now. 

Let's say we finish two places out of the playoffs, which would probably give us the 11th spot.  Our odds would be as follows:

0.8% for the 1st Pick
0.9% for the 2nd Pick
1.2% for the 3rd Pick
90.7% for the 11th Pick
6.3.% for the 12th Pick
0.1% for the 13th Pick

That's fine I guess, as it would give us a ~98% of a top 12 pick.  Since the draft class falls off dramatically from 12-13 (at least right now) in scout's eyes, this would be alright.  Also a 3% chance to get a top 3 pick is better than a 0% chance, although granted it's probably not happening.  That's still going to get us Justice Winslow, Kelly Oubre, WCS or Myles Turner, which would be great.  Maybe we even get lucky and Hezonja falls, who knows?

[TheFlex]

So the current 8 seed in the East is the Miami Heat, who just acquired Goran Dragic.  I'm pretty sure they're going to now improve on their 22-30 record and will probably be an extremely annoying out in the playoffs.

Right above them in the 7th seed at also 22-30 is the Charlotte Hornets, who didn't make any moves but Kemba Walker should be coming back around March 16th and they will also get MGK back soon.  I'm guessing even if they play .400 ball for the next month, Kemba will give them some wins right before the end of the season.

Then for the 1-6 seeds its the Hawks, Raptors, Bulls, Wizards, Cavaliers and the Bucks, all of whom are essentially locked into the playoffs right now.

The Brooklyn Nets are sitting at 21-31 and didn't make any real moves at the deadline.  They're one game out of the playoffs and one game ahead of us.  We're at 20-31 and just acquired Isaiah, but our best player right now is Sully and he is out indefinitely.

The Pistons are at 21-33 and just improved their team immensely with Reggie Jackson and Tayshaun.  The Pacers are getting George back soon, who is a superstar.

I think it's pretty safe to say we're officially not making the playoffs now. 

Let's say we finish two places out of the playoffs, which would probably give us the 11th spot.  Our odds would be as follows:

0.8% for the 1st Pick
0.9% for the 2nd Pick
1.2% for the 3rd Pick
90.7% for the 11th Pick
6.3.% for the 12th Pick
0.1% for the 13th Pick

That's fine I guess, as it would give us a ~98% of a top 12 pick.  Since the draft class falls off dramatically from 12-13 (at least right now) in scout's eyes, this would be alright.  Also a 3% chance to get a top 3 pick is better than a 0% chance, although granted it's probably not happening.  That's still going to get us Justice Winslow, Kelly Oubre, WCS or Myles Turner, which would be great.  Maybe we even get lucky and Hezonja falls, who knows?

TP.

I'd love to move up for D. Russell, though that looks more and more unlikely. I can't see us making the playoffs as suddenly the East has become tougher, but we won't finish with a bottom five record either.

[celticsclay]

So the current 8 seed in the East is the Miami Heat, who just acquired Goran Dragic.  I'm pretty sure they're going to now improve on their 22-30 record and will probably be an extremely annoying out in the playoffs.

Right above them in the 7th seed at also 22-30 is the Charlotte Hornets, who didn't make any moves but Kemba Walker should be coming back around March 16th and they will also get MGK back soon.  I'm guessing even if they play .400 ball for the next month, Kemba will give them some wins right before the end of the season.

Then for the 1-6 seeds its the Hawks, Raptors, Bulls, Wizards, Cavaliers and the Bucks, all of whom are essentially locked into the playoffs right now.

The Brooklyn Nets are sitting at 21-31 and didn't make any real moves at the deadline.  They're one game out of the playoffs and one game ahead of us.  We're at 20-31 and just acquired Isaiah, but our best player right now is Sully and he is out indefinitely.

The Pistons are at 21-33 and just improved their team immensely with Reggie Jackson and Tayshaun.  The Pacers are getting George back soon, who is a superstar.

I think it's pretty safe to say we're officially not making the playoffs now. 

Let's say we finish two places out of the playoffs, which would probably give us the 11th spot.  Our odds would be as follows:

0.8% for the 1st Pick
0.9% for the 2nd Pick
1.2% for the 3rd Pick
90.7% for the 11th Pick
6.3.% for the 12th Pick
0.1% for the 13th Pick

That's fine I guess, as it would give us a ~98% of a top 12 pick.  Since the draft class falls off dramatically from 12-13 (at least right now) in scout's eyes, this would be alright.  Also a 3% chance to get a top 3 pick is better than a 0% chance, although granted it's probably not happening.  That's still going to get us Justice Winslow, Kelly Oubre, WCS or Myles Turner, which would be great.  Maybe we even get lucky and Hezonja falls, who knows?

This is the most pessimistic view you could take of all the trades. Losing Augustin (who is been playing amazingly for them since Jennings went down) is a significant subtraction. Prince and Jerekbro are really not moving the needle either way. It remains to be seen how much Reggie Jackson will want to feed Monroe and Drummond right as he enters free agency. Overall, they are worse off than 3 weeks ago when they had Augustine and Jennings.

Nets would seem like they have definitely gotten worse. I apologize if I am getting this wrong cause there are so many rumors, but isn't losing Jack and Garnett for Young a downgrade? I know he doesn't play many minutes but the Nets biggest problem was already not having enough bigs and Garnett is still a very effective backup big.

The only thing that moved the needle probably was the Heat getting Dragic. While I do think he will help them get the playoffs, their team seems like it would be more effective in a fantasy basketball league than in real life. They have no depth and a starting sg that can't stay healthy. When they do both play, how do dragic and wade fit?

Obviously hurting sully would be the biggest news of the day and that is a separate topic and issue, but if we are really talking strictly about the trade deadline the celtics improved as much as anyone besides the heat.

[Quetzalcoatl]

This is the most pessimistic view you could take of all the trades. Losing Augustin (who is been playing amazingly for them since Jennings went down) is a significant subtraction. Prince and Jerekbro are really not moving the needle either way. It remains to be seen how much Reggie Jackson will want to feed Monroe and Drummond right as he enters free agency. Overall, they are worse off than 3 weeks ago when they had Augustine and Jennings.

Nets would seem like they have definitely gotten worse. I apologize if I am getting this wrong cause there are so many rumors, but isn't losing Jack and Garnett for Young a downgrade? I know he doesn't play many minutes but the Nets biggest problem was already not having enough bigs and Garnett is still a very effective backup big.

The only thing that moved the needle probably was the Heat getting Dragic. While I do think he will help them get the playoffs, their team seems like it would be more effective in a fantasy basketball league than in real life. They have no depth and a starting sg that can't stay healthy. When they do both play, how do dragic and wade fit?

Obviously hurting sully would be the biggest news of the day and that is a separate topic and issue, but if we are really talking strictly about the trade deadline the celtics improved as much as anyone besides the heat.

The Nets fans are dancing in the streets right now:

http://www.netsdaily.com/2015/2/19/8071549/kevin-garnett-to-minnesota-for-thaddeus-young
(check the comments section)

They still have 3 centers in Lopez, Plume and Jordan and their biggest weakness is covered by Young (lack of spacing / scoring).  KG is on his last fumes and is nothing like the player he was in Boston.  Jarrett Jack I mean is fine as a back up but he's not that great.

Also, the Pistons have gone 4-7 without Jennings, but they lost their first 4 games in a row without him and then stabilized.  With Jackson they will undoubtably do better.  He's not playing great lately, but Jackson should be a good fit in SVG's system and when he got big minutes he really looked great.  The Pistons were ahead of us in the standings when Jennings went down and they're right on our heels now.

As for us, our best player right now is Sully and he'll be out for a few weeks at the very least.  He'll still be fat when gets back, so his recovery will be slow.  Our best hope for making the playoffs will be that Sully's D is really just that bad and we do well in his absence.  If anything, I thought I was being optimistic about our chances!  Ha, anyways, good post

[hwangjini_1]

So the current 8 seed in the East is the Miami Heat, who just acquired Goran Dragic.  I'm pretty sure they're going to now improve on their 22-30 record and will probably be an extremely annoying out in the playoffs.

Right above them in the 7th seed at also 22-30 is the Charlotte Hornets, who didn't make any moves but Kemba Walker should be coming back around March 16th and they will also get MGK back soon.  I'm guessing even if they play .400 ball for the next month, Kemba will give them some wins right before the end of the season.

Then for the 1-6 seeds its the Hawks, Raptors, Bulls, Wizards, Cavaliers and the Bucks, all of whom are essentially locked into the playoffs right now.

The Brooklyn Nets are sitting at 21-31 and didn't make any real moves at the deadline.  They're one game out of the playoffs and one game ahead of us.  We're at 20-31 and just acquired Isaiah, but our best player right now is Sully and he is out indefinitely.

The Pistons are at 21-33 and just improved their team immensely with Reggie Jackson and Tayshaun.  The Pacers are getting George back soon, who is a superstar.

I think it's pretty safe to say we're officially not making the playoffs now. 

Let's say we finish two places out of the playoffs, which would probably give us the 11th spot.  Our odds would be as follows:

0.8% for the 1st Pick
0.9% for the 2nd Pick
1.2% for the 3rd Pick
90.7% for the 11th Pick
6.3.% for the 12th Pick
0.1% for the 13th Pick

That's fine I guess, as it would give us a ~98% of a top 12 pick.  Since the draft class falls off dramatically from 12-13 (at least right now) in scout's eyes, this would be alright.  Also a 3% chance to get a top 3 pick is better than a 0% chance, although granted it's probably not happening.  That's still going to get us Justice Winslow, Kelly Oubre, WCS or Myles Turner, which would be great.  Maybe we even get lucky and Hezonja falls, who knows?

good homework and a good post. so, the celtics get better with talent AND still have a chance to do well in the lottery? i'll take those as outcomes to this season.

if we assume the celtics come in at around the #12 pick, they can always move up into the #8ish range with a trade, should someone fall in the draft.

tp for the good post.

[celticsclay]

This is the most pessimistic view you could take of all the trades. Losing Augustin (who is been playing amazingly for them since Jennings went down) is a significant subtraction. Prince and Jerekbro are really not moving the needle either way. It remains to be seen how much Reggie Jackson will want to feed Monroe and Drummond right as he enters free agency. Overall, they are worse off than 3 weeks ago when they had Augustine and Jennings.

Nets would seem like they have definitely gotten worse. I apologize if I am getting this wrong cause there are so many rumors, but isn't losing Jack and Garnett for Young a downgrade? I know he doesn't play many minutes but the Nets biggest problem was already not having enough bigs and Garnett is still a very effective backup big.

The only thing that moved the needle probably was the Heat getting Dragic. While I do think he will help them get the playoffs, their team seems like it would be more effective in a fantasy basketball league than in real life. They have no depth and a starting sg that can't stay healthy. When they do both play, how do dragic and wade fit?

Obviously hurting sully would be the biggest news of the day and that is a separate topic and issue, but if we are really talking strictly about the trade deadline the celtics improved as much as anyone besides the heat.

The Nets fans are dancing in the streets right now:

http://www.netsdaily.com/2015/2/19/8071549/kevin-garnett-to-minnesota-for-thaddeus-young
(check the comments section)

They still have 3 centers in Lopez, Plume and Jordan and their biggest weakness is covered by Young (lack of spacing / scoring).  KG is on his last fumes and is nothing like the player he was in Boston.  Jarrett Jack I mean is fine as a back up but he's not that great.

Also, the Pistons have gone 4-7 without Jennings, but they lost their first 4 games in a row without him and then stabilized.  With Jackson they will undoubtably do better.  He's not playing great lately, but Jackson should be a good fit in SVG's system and when he got big minutes he really looked great.  The Pistons were ahead of us in the standings when Jennings went down and they're right on our heels now.

As for us, our best player right now is Sully and he'll be out for a few weeks at the very least.  He'll still be fat when gets back, so his recovery will be slow.  Our best hope for making the playoffs will be that Sully's D is really just that bad and we do well in his absence.  If anything, I thought I was being optimistic about our chances!  Ha, anyways, good post

Thanks for the response. I just have a different perspective on role players than a lot of people (value them more highly) and I also don't think people generally realize how good role players are playing at times. For example, would many people believe that jarret jack was shooting 51% from the field, averaging 16.5 points, 6 assists and 3.7 rebounds in the month of February (6 games). In january and february he has 6 points of over 20 points including a 35 outburst. I am not saying he is the second coming, but on a team with serious problems on offense his loss is significant. 

When I talk about the frontcourt depth I guess I was thinking of KG as more of a power forward. The only power forwards currently on their roster are telotovic who is hardly a banger and corey jefferson. Collectively they have to have one of the worst front courts in the league with only the one dimensional Lopez not being significantly below average.

I don't think they made this move with an eye on improving this year.

Overall though I just hope the celtics make the playoffs and really hope they can do it (plus we all want brooklyn to suck forever)

[tazzmaniac]

This is the most pessimistic view you could take of all the trades. Losing Augustin (who is been playing amazingly for them since Jennings went down) is a significant subtraction. Prince and Jerekbro are really not moving the needle either way. It remains to be seen how much Reggie Jackson will want to feed Monroe and Drummond right as he enters free agency. Overall, they are worse off than 3 weeks ago when they had Augustine and Jennings.

Nets would seem like they have definitely gotten worse. I apologize if I am getting this wrong cause there are so many rumors, but isn't losing Jack and Garnett for Young a downgrade? I know he doesn't play many minutes but the Nets biggest problem was already not having enough bigs and Garnett is still a very effective backup big.

The only thing that moved the needle probably was the Heat getting Dragic. While I do think he will help them get the playoffs, their team seems like it would be more effective in a fantasy basketball league than in real life. They have no depth and a starting sg that can't stay healthy. When they do both play, how do dragic and wade fit?

Obviously hurting sully would be the biggest news of the day and that is a separate topic and issue, but if we are really talking strictly about the trade deadline the celtics improved as much as anyone besides the heat.

The Nets fans are dancing in the streets right now:

http://www.netsdaily.com/2015/2/19/8071549/kevin-garnett-to-minnesota-for-thaddeus-young
(check the comments section)

They still have 3 centers in Lopez, Plume and Jordan and their biggest weakness is covered by Young (lack of spacing / scoring).  KG is on his last fumes and is nothing like the player he was in Boston.  Jarrett Jack I mean is fine as a back up but he's not that great.

Also, the Pistons have gone 4-7 without Jennings, but they lost their first 4 games in a row without him and then stabilized.  With Jackson they will undoubtably do better.  He's not playing great lately, but Jackson should be a good fit in SVG's system and when he got big minutes he really looked great.  The Pistons were ahead of us in the standings when Jennings went down and they're right on our heels now.

As for us, our best player right now is Sully and he'll be out for a few weeks at the very least.  He'll still be fat when gets back, so his recovery will be slow.  Our best hope for making the playoffs will be that Sully's D is really just that bad and we do well in his absence.  If anything, I thought I was being optimistic about our chances!  Ha, anyways, good post

Thanks for the response. I just have a different perspective on role players than a lot of people (value them more highly) and I also don't think people generally realize how good role players are playing at times. For example, would many people believe that jarret jack was shooting 51% from the field, averaging 16.5 points, 6 assists and 3.7 rebounds in the month of February (6 games). In january and february he has 6 points of over 20 points including a 35 outburst. I am not saying he is the second coming, but on a team with serious problems on offense his loss is significant. 

When I talk about the frontcourt depth I guess I was thinking of KG as more of a power forward. The only power forwards currently on their roster are telotovic who is hardly a banger and corey jefferson. Collectively they have to have one of the worst front courts in the league with only the one dimensional Lopez not being significantly below average.

I don't think they made this move with an eye on improving this year.

Overall though I just hope the celtics make the playoffs and really hope they can do it (plus we all want brooklyn to suck forever)

Why are you talking about Jarrett Jack as a loss?  He's still on the Nets.   

[Quetzalcoatl]

Why are you talking about Jarrett Jack as a loss?  He's still on the Nets.

Oh look at that, I just totally took celticsclay's word for it.  I even went and looked just now and didn't see that he was traded, but with the amount of action that happened today, I am still not 100% what team he's on.  I think smart money is on the Nets, but who even knows anymore