It'd take way too long to challenge you on every objection you just raised, but here's one that really boggles my mind: you really don't think Steph Curry is better than Rondo at this point?
Well, I pondered this question and all the related ones (Is Deron Williams better than Rondo? Is Kyrie Irving better than Rondo? Etc., etc.), input some numbers and came out with the following answer:
http://www.celticsblog.com/2014/12/17/7406937/ranking-point-guards-at-the-quarter-pole-an-analytic-approach
The short answer would be: If you ignore defense, then right now, yep, Steph Curry is probably just barely slightly better than Rondo right now. I have his net point impact per 36 at the top of the list at 39.2 points per 36. But Rondo's impact is only slightly behind in 3rd at 37.1.
This rating gives credit for points scored, assists and rebounds and penalizes for turnovers and missed shots.
Just keep in mind that this evaluation is being done with Rondo shooting _way_ below his career norms, to which is likely to eventually regress upwards to. That could add 2-4 points to his per-36 average. That alone might push Rondo's net point impact rating up above Curry's.
And seriously? Rondo's defense is definitely worth more than Curry's.
Here are the resulting ratings as of Monday night's games. See the link up above for the math.
Player NetPointImpact/36
Stephen Curry 39.2
Chris Paul 38.5
Rajon Rondo 37.1
John Wall 36.8
James Harden 35.2
Kyle Lowry 34.9
Ty Lawson 33.3
Jeff Teague 32.3
Damian Lillard 31.9
Dwyane Wade 31.7
M. Carter-Williams 31.2
Mike Conley 29.4
Eric Bledsoe 29.1
Jrue Holiday 28.5
Brandon Knight 28.1
Derrick Rose 27.4
Deron Williams 27.2
Tyreke Evans 27.1
Tony Parker 27.0
Brandon Jennings 26.6
Darren Collison 26.4
Kyrie Irving 26.3
Tony Wroten 26.2
Reggie Jackson 26.1
Mo Williams 26.0
Kemba Walker 24.2
Trey Burke 20.2
If I were to take defense into consideration (other than rebounds, which are already accounted for) I would probably put Paul #1, followed by Rondo and then Curry. Especially if you factor in strength of schedule (Rondo has played against a much harder schedule so far than either Paul or Curry - especially Curry. GSW has played the 4th easiest schedule so far.).
But even ignoring defense, it is pretty clear that as measured by raw production stats, Rondo is clearly still among the top handful of point guards in the NBA and most of the spew in this thread claiming he is "not even top 30" in the NBA is just hyperbole.
This was a pretty straightforward analysis and I suspect that Danny & Brad's evaluations are at least as sophisticated. I would bet their sense of Rondo's value is a LOT different than that of several of the bloggers on this board.
TP for the analysis.
Your choice of stats and allocation of weight to each stat is biased to Rondo's style of play in numerous ways, two of which I have the intellect to explain at 4:30 A.M.:
It penalizes other players for missed shots more so than Rondo is penalized for not taking enough shots to be considered as highly as most of those players are. We'll continue the Steph Curry theme of this discussion. Rondo takes, and therefore misses, far less shots than Steph Curry does and yet Rondo does not shoot any more efficiently than Curry does. It is my opinion that you get around this by measuring total missed shots vs. shot efficiency.
It credits players for the entirety of the total points scored off their assist, which is typically nearly double and in some cases triple what you weigh a single turnover. This sort of analysis presumes that without the assist the points would not be scored in the same direct fashion that it is presumed without a player taking and making a shot that the shot's resulting points would not otherwise be scored. I do not assess an assist to have the same point value as a made basket and I am assuming most other advanced metrics don't either, which is why Rondo is ranked so poorly, particularly on offense, by typical advanced metrics this season.
Your analysis pegs Rondo as a top 3 PG while most other statistical analysis suggests he's fighting for a top 20 spot at the position. I'm guessing his value is somewhere in the middle (I rank him around 12th in the league). I also find it hard to believe Danny and Brad are as high on Rondo as you seem to think when Danny has tried to trade Rondo numerous times (CP3, Steph Curry, Sac-Town offer last year that Rondo killed) and Brad has been steadily decreasing his minutes. Within two months of Rondo's return last season, Brad played him about 36 minutes a game to close out the season. In the month of November this average fell to about 32.5 mpg. Now in December Rondo is averaging about 30 mpg. That doesn't sound like a player valued as a top 3 positional talent by his GM and coach.
Addressing the bolded statements in order:
1) No, otherwise I would have included steals, since Rondo is towards the top in rankings for that stat. The evaluation is done with points, assists, rebounds, turnovers and missed shots. The idea that that set of stats somehow is skewed to favor Rondo over others is dubious. The weights are based purely on game score impact. That is, how the event moves the scoreboard. I'm not assigning arbitrary weights here.
2) No, it does not penalize other players for making more missed shots than Rondo for not taking many FGA. Rondo is penalized for not taking as many shots because that reduces the number of made shots for him and thus directly reduces the "points scored" contribution to his point-creation number. On the other side, a missed shot IS a negative event -- why do you think so many coaches repeat the mantra, "It is a make/miss league.". A missed shot hurts your team and
must carry a penalty. Since,
if it is grabbed by the defense, the weight of that penalty is the value of a possession (same as a turnover), which we can approximate based on the average points per possession. Since there is only a ~75% chance that it will be grabbed by the defense, we further reduce that penalty to just that portion. A made shot is worth 2 or 3 points. A missed shot is only penalized a little over .75 points. So no, your assertion that it penalizes other players more so than Rondo is without basis.
3) Your argument for devaluing the weight of an assist is completely dubious. That is no different than arguing that because Player B could just as well have taken a particular shot, that Player A should not receive full point credit when he takes and makes a shot. The fact is, a basketball event occurred that resulted in a positive or negative impact on the scoreboard. That is what is being measured here. The event did not occur without Player A taking the shot. If it was an assisted shot, it did not take place without the assist opportunity.
4) It is ironic that you mention those two players (CP3, Curry) as players Danny is alleged to have wanted to trade Rondo for. That establishes the level of player he would want for replacement value. That seems consistent with my analysis. How, exactly, is that implying that Danny views Rondo's value as any less than what my analysis shows? Rondo's minutes are only "down" in December due entirely to just two games: The "bench scores 82 in an epic almost-comeback" game against Washington, in which Rondo played just 20 minutes and this very last blowout game against Philadelphia where he sat along with Green since they were not needed. Other than those two games his minutes in all other games in December are between 31:29 - 34:25. On average, about the same as November. So again, your premise seems without foundation.
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