Is it time to consider whether the Celtics made a mistake with Brad Stevens>

[TheFlex]

Those aren't stats, those are physical measurements that may or may not correlate to one's ability to play basketball. The stats suggest that such physical disadvantages have not hindered Sullinger's ability to play at least average individual and team defense.

Ok Papa Sullinger, keep thinking that.   He is slow and reacts slow on D, as you watch future games you will see, that we have popped your kool-aid bubble.  No one is calling asking about Sully, Stevens does not trust Sully on D.  You want stats, I'll  be your huckleberry!



How about Opponent Counterpart 48-Minute Production

In that stat per 48 opposing PF are  at 21.2 PER and projecting at 25 points.  Boy that is some good D.  If one studies this you find he is a better C than PF, trouble is he is short to play C.  But with his speed he plays it better even if they shoot 50% from the field on him because he can't jump.   

Also check out of Clutch Statistics  DEF rating of  124.7   and -17.0 in Clutch time, no wonder he sits where games are close.

http://www.82games.com/1415/14BOS12.HTM#pstats

Proof he can't play D when it matters.

Sweet argument bro. You lost. Bye bye.

You got your stats, Hello.  Waiting for your drivel spin on it.

As BitterJim said, Sully has covered the opposing center all season except when Zeller is on the floor. Since he is technically slotted at PF, the stats track the production of the opposing PF, though that player is typically guarded by either Olynyk or Bass when Sully is on the floor.

The Celtics give up three more points on average with Sully off the floor vs. Sully on the floor, according to 82games.com.

The problem with your analysis is that you go from 100% reliance on your naked eye to 100% reliance on stats. What you don't seem to realize is that the Goldilocks principle applies to flawed statistical analysis. You have to use both to come up with a conclusion that is in the ballpark of truth.

[BitterJim]

Try 82games or other advanced stats websites and you will not find statistical proof to back up your claims. Sully is far from an exemplary defender but there is also a buffer between him and Olynyk's level of putridity as well. When put next to a legitimate rim protector, Sully could at least contain his man one-on-one. Not so sure the same can be said of Olynyk.

They both are bad, get some glasses, it might help, and watch some games and watch how poorly he rotates.  They do not have stats for slow feet, bad rotation, laziness or out of shape but if they did Sully would be on the top.

But you want stats here are some, from his athletic tests.

game has had more to do with his lack of elite physical tools than with his on-court performance, though. He posted the sixth-worst max. vertical of the 2012 NBA Draft Combine and finished last in both the lane agility drill and the ¾-court sprint.

http://www.nba.com/sixers/features/jared-sullinger-closer-look


Lane Agility 
12.77 Sullinger
11.3   Zeller
10.42 Olynyk - Surprising result.

3/4 Court Sprint
3.81 Sullinger
3.4 Zeller
3.59 Olynyk

Standing Vertical
29.5" Sullinger
30" Zeller
24.5" Olynyk

Max Vertical
30" Sullinger
34" Zeller
29.5"  Olynyk

Bench Press 185 lbs.
9  Sullinger
16 Zeller
5 Olynyk

http://www.nbadraft.net/2012-nba-combine-athleticism-results

http://www.nbadraft.net/nba-draft-combine-athleticism-test-analysis

http://www.brightsideofthesun.com/2013/5/19/4343934/nba-draft-2013-official-combine-measurements-results-comparisons-bigs

Strength can be gained easily so bench press is the least valuable stat.  It will go up with NBA training.   All three of these guys have decent frame, none of them have real beastly shoulders to stack mass upon.

Sully is slow.   KO is playing with the bench a lot so all those fancy stats do not reflect that.   My guess is Stevens would rather finish with a guy that can run up and down the court.  Sully can jump higher.

These guys all have some skills but Zeller is average athletically but a decent runner.   Sully is weak, subpar strength and slow.   KO is weak and can't jump.

Speed and Jumping are two of the hardest things to gain athletically.   Strength is easy.  My son went from benching 85 to 185 in less than a year he is a teen.

They have skills in shooting somewhat.  Passing most definitely.   One is an average NBA defender and the other two are weak.   I think their improvement in these areas will be finite given their limited tools, that being said, these results would blow away 99% of guys off the street.  But in the NBA, athletic ability matters it is not the end all.   I always hear Bird could not jump or run but he was a much better athlete than any of these three before he hurt his achilles.   He also had superior skills and superior anticipation and basketball IQ.   I can see flashes of this IQ in KO.   Sully has his derriere which he uses to carve out space and has real good hands.   Zeller can run and at this point, I think he has the most potential of the three, as he is the best athlete and knows his limitations and plays within them.

Combine stats are great, but I'm sure that they're all in better shape/more athletic by now (not to mention the fact that Sully had his back issue during the combine)

right here DUDE. Lol. All I'm saying is Sully is still in miserable shape so these numbers are probably still accurate. Maybe he's slightly in better shape.

So Sully has had no major changes to his health, say back surgery which helped to loosen his quads/hamstrings, improve his movement, etc.?

"I was basically playing on one leg. I wouldn’t say I can jump higher. I can move better."

http://www.enterprisenews.com/article/20140214/Sports/140217495

[KeepRondo]

Bitterjim,

He's out of shape. Just like he was in college.

[TheFlex]

Bitterjim,

He's out of shape. Just like he was in college.

Perfect trolling technique.

When in doubt, just keep repeating your debunked thesis.

[KeepRondo]

Bitterjim,

He's out of shape. Just like he was in college.

Perfect trolling technique.

When in doubt, just keep repeating your debunked thesis.

I was answering his reply. He got snippy with me but he seemed reasonable so I responded to him. You on the other hand want to hold your opinions over other people.

And you want to decide what stats are flawed and which are not. I personally think they all are.

Chill out.

[timpiker]

What a horse crap topic.  Brad Stevens is a God-send to the C's and anyone that doesn't think that is delusional or doesn't watch the games.

[Celtics4ever]

He's out of shape. Just like he was in college.

I think it is amazing he does as well as he does sometimes.   Imagine, if he took the game seriously.

[Chris22]

Brad is not trying to win.

He is developing players and getting us in the lottery.

[MBunge]

What a horse crap topic.  Brad Stevens is a God-send to the C's and anyone that doesn't think that is delusional or doesn't watch the games.

I don't understand that viewpoint.  Anyone who has watched the games has seen...

1.  Weird rotation/substitution patterns.

2.  An even weirder aversion to playing guys more than 35 minutes no matter what the game situation.

3.  Horrific plays coming out of timeouts.

4.  Repeated fourth quarter collapses.

5.  A supposedly high powered offense that has fallen on its face against Philly, Charlotte and New York, three teams with even worse records than Boston.

6.  Playing to the level of competition.

7.  One of the worst defenses in the league.

Now, it's hard to assign blame for those things but I don't understand how a good bit of the blame doesn't fall on Stevens.  I mean, losing Courtney Lee and Kris Humphries might have explained Boston going from an above average defense last year to a below average defense this year.  That cannot explain how the Celtic defense completely went in the toilet.

Mike

[CoachBo]

I don't understand the OP.

Stevens has little to work with, and the supposed foundation of the rebuild that's going nowhere is playing miserably.

If I were him, I'd be looking for a college gig. This rebuild has Pitino written all over it.

[Jonny CC]

What a horse crap topic.  Brad Stevens is a God-send to the C's and anyone that doesn't think that is delusional or doesn't watch the games.

I don't understand that viewpoint.  Anyone who has watched the games has seen...

1.  Weird rotation/substitution patterns.
2.  An even weirder aversion to playing guys more than 35 minutes no matter what the game situation.
3.  Horrific plays coming out of timeouts.
4.  Repeated fourth quarter collapses.
5.  A supposedly high powered offense that has fallen on its face against Philly, Charlotte and New York, three teams with even worse records than Boston.
6.  Playing to the level of competition.
7.  One of the worst defenses in the league.

Now, it's hard to assign blame for those things but I don't understand how a good bit of the blame doesn't fall on Stevens.  I mean, losing Courtney Lee and Kris Humphries might have explained Boston going from an above average defense last year to a below average defense this year.  That cannot explain how the Celtic defense completely went in the toilet.

Mike

As I stated in a previous post before this topic went off the rails onto a discussion of Sully's muffin top...
Do you think that the Celtics AREN'T a terrible team?!  At least the Knicks and Charlotte have some all stars on the roster.  Stevens is doing a good job with what he has (and what he hasn't...a starting PG who can score and defend, a rim protector, etc).  Jeff Green may be their best player.  Think about that...Jeff F'N Green!!!!!!!  Seriously...you expect the C's to have a better record with the roster they have now?  They have lost some big leads but Stevens deserves a medal for getting a lead with a team full of bench players.

If Stevens was able to coach an above average defensive team last year as you mentioned, then doesn't the defensive decline this year have more to do with the roster? 

[BitterJim]

Bitterjim,

He's out of shape. Just like he was in college.

Even if he's out of shape now, he's still in better shape than he was in college, as I've been trying to make clear.  The back problems he had were tied to tightness in his quads and hamstring, which reduced his mobility, and you can find quotes to the effect that he was essentially playing on one leg for a while.  There's no comparing that to where he is now, with a good deal of his mobility restored.

If you honestly think that combine stats from 2 or 3 years ago can tell you how athletic someone is now (especially when major surgery is involved), then be my guest, but surgery and years of playing in the NBA make a difference.  Just look at sully this year vs.  last year:  he's in better shape and better able to play more minutes.  Is he where he should be?  No, probably not, but don't confuse that with not making any progress

[Dedalus]

404

[gpap]

How is this crappy team's performance Steven's fault?

His fault that this team doesn't know how to finish games?

Blame this idiot.

[Jonny CC]

How is this crappy team's performance Steven's fault?

His fault that this team doesn't know how to finish games?

Blame this idiot.

Patience grasshopper.  Ainge has made a lot of good moves for the future and it's not gong to turn around overnight.  Get off the ledge.