17 Years later the next Duncan is here. J. Okafor

[mmmmm]

 Call me crazy. This kid is not even fair. Keep Wiggins, Keep Parker, This kid is 18, he's 6'11" 275 pounds he's got a 7'5" wingspan and best of all It's not because he's the best athlete you have ever seen in your life, It's because he plays like a super strong super sized  Tim Duncan, This kid will be so good barring injury it's scary.

 If we get Okafor we win a title within five years. Heck maybe sooner if we could lure someone else here, hell, a Celts fan can dream, Can't he?

I agree that Okafor is great. Problem is that even if we finish as bad as 5th from the bottom (really unlikely considering that Philly has already established itself as the worst, and then you have Utah, LAL, NYK, Pistons, Minny, Charlotte and Orlando) this gives us only a 8.8% chance of getting Okafor.
Even if Okafor is not nr1, the chance of getting a top-3 pick will be 29.1%. I wouldn't get myself too excited.

Cleveland against all odds won the #1 pick last year, and I believe the Bulls in 08 did as well

Which, really, isn't making it any more attractive to tank.

I'm just not really interested in basing my organizational strategy on the outcome of lottery balls anymore.

[kozlodoev]

 Call me crazy. This kid is not even fair. Keep Wiggins, Keep Parker, This kid is 18, he's 6'11" 275 pounds he's got a 7'5" wingspan and best of all It's not because he's the best athlete you have ever seen in your life, It's because he plays like a super strong super sized  Tim Duncan, This kid will be so good barring injury it's scary.

 If we get Okafor we win a title within five years. Heck maybe sooner if we could lure someone else here, hell, a Celts fan can dream, Can't he?

Tim Duncan didn't shoot 50% on free throws in college. Or on any other level, for that matter. It's just not going to work this way, no matter how good he is otherwise.

[manl_lui]

 Call me crazy. This kid is not even fair. Keep Wiggins, Keep Parker, This kid is 18, he's 6'11" 275 pounds he's got a 7'5" wingspan and best of all It's not because he's the best athlete you have ever seen in your life, It's because he plays like a super strong super sized  Tim Duncan, This kid will be so good barring injury it's scary.

 If we get Okafor we win a title within five years. Heck maybe sooner if we could lure someone else here, hell, a Celts fan can dream, Can't he?

I agree that Okafor is great. Problem is that even if we finish as bad as 5th from the bottom (really unlikely considering that Philly has already established itself as the worst, and then you have Utah, LAL, NYK, Pistons, Minny, Charlotte and Orlando) this gives us only a 8.8% chance of getting Okafor.
Even if Okafor is not nr1, the chance of getting a top-3 pick will be 29.1%. I wouldn't get myself too excited.

Cleveland against all odds won the #1 pick last year, and I believe the Bulls in 08 did as well

Which, really, isn't making it any more attractive to tank.

I'm just not really interested in basing my organizational strategy on the outcome of lottery balls anymore.

thank you. My manager was right about basketball vs football. Now correct me if I am wrong or feel free to add what I missed

The teams that tank or does bad does have a guaranteed top 10 pick, to get lotto pick is another story. But essentially, the best players in the NBA are USUALLY picked in the top 10, vs football where good players can be in any of the rounds.

How can we solve the tanking issue with all the teams and how do we get more talent in the draft that can also prevent tanking assuming pick 11 to round 2 are also decent players?

I guess the biggest argument from what I heard is the size of the team in football vs the size of 15 players on a basketball roster

[D.o.s.]

You're more likely to find diamonds in the rough in an NFL draft because there are 224 (and compensation picks) in each iteration, compared to the 60 that get drafted into the NBA.

There is no tanking problem in the NBA, really. It's a lot of grandstanding and faux outrage. Ten years ago it was just 'bad teams being bad'.

[fairweatherfan]

If you go into a dark room and say "Jahlil Okafor" 3 times into a mirror, your team will be guaranteed a championship.  It's science.

I don't get it. Last year was supposed to be THE draft with transcendent talent. Wiggins, Parker, Embiid. We need one of them! Now: Next year is THE draft with Okafor, Towns,... Who will be in the 2016 draft? I'm curious who will be the next messiah?

One of my favorite parts of the offseason was watching this pivot happen less than a week after the draft.

[mmmmm]

You're more likely to find diamonds in the rough in an NFL draft because there are 224 (and compensation picks) in each iteration, compared to the 60 that get drafted into the NBA.

There is no tanking problem in the NBA, really. It's a lot of grandstanding and faux outrage. Ten years ago it was just 'bad teams being bad'.

I agree.  Since the advent of the weighted lottery, being bad enough to get a top pick really has NOT paid off for the vast majority of such bad teams.  The statistics are pretty compelling. 

Yes, the players picked in the top 5 are more likely to end up on good teams - but not usually the team that 'earned' that pick.     The vast majority of top 5 pick players who end up on a title team end up there after getting traded or going through free agency.

But if you are a fan of a team, rather than the drafted player, your real concern should be on what the fate of the _teams_ that have been so bad as to earn those top draft picks has been.   And that has not been good.

[TheFlex]

 Call me crazy. This kid is not even fair. Keep Wiggins, Keep Parker, This kid is 18, he's 6'11" 275 pounds he's got a 7'5" wingspan and best of all It's not because he's the best athlete you have ever seen in your life, It's because he plays like a super strong super sized  Tim Duncan, This kid will be so good barring injury it's scary.

 If we get Okafor we win a title within five years. Heck maybe sooner if we could lure someone else here, hell, a Celts fan can dream, Can't he?

Tim Duncan didn't shoot 50% on free throws in college. Or on any other level, for that matter. It's just not going to work this way, no matter how good he is otherwise.

Is this the very same kozlodoev who continuously retorts "sample size" for any other player (in Okafor's case, both the games he's played at the collegiate level as well as the number of free throws he's taken in such games) and then throws in the eye-rolling emoticon? 

[LarBrd33]

 LarBrd, What mock drafts are you looking at. I'll bet you 4.5 Tommy Points he goes top two. He's going number one.

Maybe he will.  I dunno, I just went to nbadraft.net and saw him 3rd.  Not like nbadraft.net is a good site, though.  Just happened to be the first one I checked out.

[LarBrd33]

If you go into a dark room and say "Jahlil Okafor" 3 times into a mirror, your team will be guaranteed a championship.  It's science.

I don't get it. Last year was supposed to be THE draft with transcendent talent. Wiggins, Parker, Embiid. We need one of them! Now: Next year is THE draft with Okafor, Towns,... Who will be in the 2016 draft? I'm curious who will be the next messiah?

One of my favorite parts of the offseason was watching this pivot happen less than a week after the draft.

... Are there people out there who are already dismissing Wiggins, Parker and Embiid?  Lol...  Those guys are going to be fantastic.

[D.o.s.]

 Call me crazy. This kid is not even fair. Keep Wiggins, Keep Parker, This kid is 18, he's 6'11" 275 pounds he's got a 7'5" wingspan and best of all It's not because he's the best athlete you have ever seen in your life, It's because he plays like a super strong super sized  Tim Duncan, This kid will be so good barring injury it's scary.

 If we get Okafor we win a title within five years. Heck maybe sooner if we could lure someone else here, hell, a Celts fan can dream, Can't he?

Tim Duncan didn't shoot 50% on free throws in college. Or on any other level, for that matter. It's just not going to work this way, no matter how good he is otherwise.

Is this the very same kozlodoev who continuously retorts "sample size" for any other player (in Okafor's case, both the games he's played at the collegiate level as well as the number of free throws he's taken in such games) and then throws in the eye-rolling emoticon? 

Duncan played for four years, though. Okafor's a freshman.

[fairweatherfan]

If you go into a dark room and say "Jahlil Okafor" 3 times into a mirror, your team will be guaranteed a championship.  It's science.

I don't get it. Last year was supposed to be THE draft with transcendent talent. Wiggins, Parker, Embiid. We need one of them! Now: Next year is THE draft with Okafor, Towns,... Who will be in the 2016 draft? I'm curious who will be the next messiah?

One of my favorite parts of the offseason was watching this pivot happen less than a week after the draft.

... Are there people out there who are already dismissing Wiggins, Parker and Embiid?  Lol...  Those guys are going to be fantastic.

They're not dismissing them so much as applying the "new car loses half its value when it leaves the lot" mentality.  A subset of fans feel what players could do someday on an NBA court is a lot more exciting than what they actually do on an NBA court, and those fans often tend to closely follow draft prospects.  Once a guy's actually played in the league he's forever stained by the grime of actuality; he can't measure up to the pristine glitter of an imagined future.

[TheFlex]

 Call me crazy. This kid is not even fair. Keep Wiggins, Keep Parker, This kid is 18, he's 6'11" 275 pounds he's got a 7'5" wingspan and best of all It's not because he's the best athlete you have ever seen in your life, It's because he plays like a super strong super sized  Tim Duncan, This kid will be so good barring injury it's scary.

 If we get Okafor we win a title within five years. Heck maybe sooner if we could lure someone else here, hell, a Celts fan can dream, Can't he?

Tim Duncan didn't shoot 50% on free throws in college. Or on any other level, for that matter. It's just not going to work this way, no matter how good he is otherwise.

Is this the very same kozlodoev who continuously retorts "sample size" for any other player (in Okafor's case, both the games he's played at the collegiate level as well as the number of free throws he's taken in such games) and then throws in the eye-rolling emoticon? 

Duncan played for four years, though. Okafor's a freshman.

That's exactly my point. Kozlodoev is asserting that Duncan is and always will be a superior free throw shooter based on the less than ten college games that Okafor has played.

[footey]

 Call me crazy. This kid is not even fair. Keep Wiggins, Keep Parker, This kid is 18, he's 6'11" 275 pounds he's got a 7'5" wingspan and best of all It's not because he's the best athlete you have ever seen in your life, It's because he plays like a super strong super sized  Tim Duncan, This kid will be so good barring injury it's scary.

 If we get Okafor we win a title within five years. Heck maybe sooner if we could lure someone else here, hell, a Celts fan can dream, Can't he?

The next Tim Duncan was Anthony Davis.

Okafor isn't even listed in the top 2 in some mock drafts i'm seeing.

which? every major mock draft I have seen has him going #1, including ESPN and DE.

[footey]

Okafor is the next Walt Bellamy

Great, we can trade him for the next Dave DeBusschere.

[greece66]

 Call me crazy. This kid is not even fair. Keep Wiggins, Keep Parker, This kid is 18, he's 6'11" 275 pounds he's got a 7'5" wingspan and best of all It's not because he's the best athlete you have ever seen in your life, It's because he plays like a super strong super sized  Tim Duncan, This kid will be so good barring injury it's scary.

 If we get Okafor we win a title within five years. Heck maybe sooner if we could lure someone else here, hell, a Celts fan can dream, Can't he?

I agree that Okafor is great. Problem is that even if we finish as bad as 5th from the bottom (really unlikely considering that Philly has already established itself as the worst, and then you have Utah, LAL, NYK, Pistons, Minny, Charlotte and Orlando) this gives us only a 8.8% chance of getting Okafor.
Even if Okafor is not nr1, the chance of getting a top-3 pick will be 29.1%. I wouldn't get myself too excited.

Cleveland against all odds won the #1 pick last year, and I believe the Bulls in 08 did as well

Sure enough, but we can't make plans (or even fantasize) based on things happening against all odds.