Can we talk about Olynyk? Is he an elite shooter? Can he be a go-to scorer?

[LooseCannon]

An efficient Bargnani who can actually rebound?

Bargs doesnt have his passing abilities though.

I realize that.  I wasn't quick enough to modify my post before you quoted that.

[vjcsmoke]

Is it safe to say that Kelly is a poor mans Pau Gasol with not to much defense?

His skill set for a big man is great, he can shoot and extend the defense and he's got good feel for the game. Defense still needs work of course, but offensively, he can contribute in so many ways.

I don't mind having a poor man's Pau.

This comparison makes no sense.  Their games are nothing alike.

rich man's Boris Diaw?

It's a cliche but poor man's Dirk is still looking like a pretty good fit.

I agree.  But at this point, even using the phrase 'poor man' would probably not be appropriate.  KO will be KO but his game compares very well to Dirk.  I would not be surprised with a 15/8 season.  In a previous thread I predicted 14/8-15/8 for the season.  And so far KO has delivered.  And not only that but his true shooting% of 70 is ridiculously good.

For True Shooting, He is currently tied for 5th in the league of players with at least 20mpg playing time.

http://insider.espn.go.com/nba/hollinger/statistics/_/sort/trueShootingPct

Now considering his offensive effiency, if we could just boost up his USAGE rate, I think our high octane offense would score even more points.  This will take time for KO to gain confidence and become more aggressive, but there's not reason to think he should not be a top scoring option for us when he is so efficient at putting the ball into the basket.

And when I say high octane offense, I mean it - the Celtics surprisingly have the 6th ranked offense in the league right now and KO is a part of that.

http://espn.go.com/nba/hollinger/teamstats

It's too bad our defense is so bad or we'd be winning more games but it makes for very entertaining basketball as Brad Stevens builds this team the way he wants it.  Add one more big piece from the next draft and a good free agent pickup and we may become a playoff team by as soon as next year.

I'd love to have KO stay and be a part of that.  But realistically one of either KO or Sully will have to go to acquire another piece to help our team.  Or maybe it will be Jeff Green??

[LooseCannon]

I agree.  But at this point, even using the phrase 'poor man' would probably not be appropriate.  KO will be KO but his game compares very well to Dirk.  I would not be surprised with a 15/8 season.  In a previous thread I predicted 14/8-15/8 for the season.  And so far KO has delivered.  And not only that but his true shooting% of 70 is ridiculously good.

People focus on shooting numbers (and this is a thread about Olynyk's shooting), but I am interested in comparing KO and Dirk on defense.  Right now, I think most people would say Nowitzski is a better defender even if they still consider a defense liability who needs to be compensated for.  Does Olynyk have the upside to be as good on defense?  If so, then it might makes more sense to focus on maximizing Olynyk's offensive potential over trying to give Sullinger the best chance to succeed.

[sofutomygaha]

Andrea Bargnani is a joke today, but he's still the most meaningful comparison. It feels like faint praise to say that Kelly Olynyk is a rich man's Andrea Bargnani whereas it's pretty frivolous to say that he's a poor man's Nowitzki, but Andrea Bargnani IS a poor man's Nowitzki, after all (very, very poor).

Olynyk is a lot closer to Bargnani than he is to Dirk, but take heart! Comparing Olynyk to Bargs at the same age, Olynyk is a significantly more effective offensive player- a better passer, better 2-point shooter, and better finisher. He's also a much, much better rebounder.

In his mid-twenties, the popular opinion on Bargnani was that he could be a star if he didn't play so soft and if he worked to score more in the paint. So far, Olynyk appears to share all of young Bargnani's assets without sharing his flaws. That's something to be excited about.

[csfansince60s]

I'd love to have KO stay and be a part of that.  But realistically one of either KO or Sully will have to go to acquire another piece to help our team.  Or maybe it will be Jeff Green??

I agree with this. After Rondo, and perhaps Smart, these 3 are our most trade-able assets aside from the draft picks.

And it'll probably be somewhat out of our hands. If trading 1 or 2 of them can get us a real difference maker, the team we're trading to will dictate to us who it is.

[gpap]

No and no.

Olynyk is a good role player.

Do you mean off the bench?  What is a "role player"?  All players have a "role" on the team.  I know Danny has used this term too, but not sure what it really means.  That he is not going to be leading scorer on the team?  Well, I think we are seeing a guy who has the ability.  Not sure if he has the personality though, like Bird, for example, who from day one, you knew he was going to be the team leader.

Exactly. In my mind, Olynyk's ceiling is a useful 6th man who can give you some offense and decent rebounding.

IMO, he's not an elite shooter or go-to player.

On what do you base that assessment?

On what I've seen from him so far.

Decent scorer who can rebound, but is not aggressive enough and doesn't have the instincts YET (doesn't mean he never will) to be a starter.

Also, his defense kinda sucks.

So hence, I see his ceiling as a 6th man.

Certainly, he could end up becoming ALOT better and proving me wrong. Wouldn't be the first time.

But on a championship contending team, at this juncture, I don't see him as a starter.

  If you're acknowledging that he may end up being much better than you expect you're refuting your own claim. Ceiling is the best a player can be if they improve as much as can reasonably be expected, so his ceiling would be A LOT better than you're pegging him at.

Yeah, I was being kinda ambiguous.

Guess what I should've said is I am really not totally sure what his ceiling is.

Somewhere between a 6th man to a pretty good power forward, if we had an actual center.

Perhaps I'd have a better idea if he didn't play out of position, which he is doing right now, as I don't think he's a center.

Stevens should consider starting Olynyk at the 4 with Zeller at the 5.

[gpap]

No and no.

Olynyk is a good role player.

Do you mean off the bench?  What is a "role player"?  All players have a "role" on the team.  I know Danny has used this term too, but not sure what it really means.  That he is not going to be leading scorer on the team?  Well, I think we are seeing a guy who has the ability.  Not sure if he has the personality though, like Bird, for example, who from day one, you knew he was going to be the team leader.

Exactly. In my mind, Olynyk's ceiling is a useful 6th man who can give you some offense and decent rebounding.

IMO, he's not an elite shooter or go-to player.

On what do you base that assessment?

On what I've seen from him so far.

Decent scorer who can rebound, but is not aggressive enough and doesn't have the instincts YET (doesn't mean he never will) to be a starter.

Also, his defense kinda sucks.

So hence, I see his ceiling as a 6th man.

Certainly, he could end up becoming ALOT better and proving me wrong. Wouldn't be the first time.

But on a championship contending team, at this juncture, I don't see him as a starter.

When you say that he "could end up becoming ALOT better," it seems to me that you have a different understanding of the term "ceiling" than most people.

See above.

[DarkAzcura]

Andrea Bargnani is a joke today, but he's still the most meaningful comparison. It feels like faint praise to say that Kelly Olynyk is a rich man's Andrea Bargnani whereas it's pretty frivolous to say that he's a poor man's Nowitzki, but Andrea Bargnani IS a poor man's Nowitzki, after all (very, very poor).

Olynyk is a lot closer to Bargnani than he is to Dirk, but take heart! Comparing Olynyk to Bargs at the same age, Olynyk is a significantly more effective offensive player- a better passer, better 2-point shooter, and better finisher. He's also a much, much better rebounder.

In his mid-twenties, the popular opinion on Bargnani was that he could be a star if he didn't play so soft and if he worked to score more in the paint. So far, Olynyk appears to share all of young Bargnani's assets without sharing his flaws. That's something to be excited about.

So he's basically nothing like Bargs...

Sounds like people want to avoid the Dirk comparison just because he is a future hall of famer and comparisons like that are usually taboo. Through 2 years, Dirk is a much better comparison for Olynyk than Bargs because of everything you listed. The things you listed are what made Bargs and Dirk a poor comparison, but by the same token, it makes Dirk a good comparison skill set wise to Olynyk. Will Olynyk have Dirk's impact in his prime? Most likely not, but there's nothing wrong with comparing skill sets.

Caron Butler was a Paul Pierce-like player, but he obviously never reached Pierce's impact level. It doesn't put a stop to their similarities, though. That's basically my problem with people hating on the Oly/Dirk comparison. I feel like 90% of people who make that comparison aren't saying Olynyk will reach his level. They are just comparing their skill set. The biggest difference between Oly and Dirk right now is that Olynyk doesn't draw fouls as well. Olynyk also doesn't have that mentality to go get his..yet at least.

Bargs will forever be a poor comparison for Olynyk because Bargs never had his BBIQ, passing ability, ball handling, aggressiveness, and rebounding ability. Bargs for his career has taken about 19% of his FGA at the rim. Olynyk for comparison has taken 40% of his FGA at the rim. Big, big difference, and that's only shot selection. Dirk took 16% of his FGA at the rim so maybe you are right that Olynyk isn't close to Dirk in similarities, but he's equally as far away from Bargs for comparison's sake.

[fairweatherfan]

Andrea Bargnani is a joke today, but he's still the most meaningful comparison. It feels like faint praise to say that Kelly Olynyk is a rich man's Andrea Bargnani whereas it's pretty frivolous to say that he's a poor man's Nowitzki, but Andrea Bargnani IS a poor man's Nowitzki, after all (very, very poor).

Why is it frivolous to call him a poor man's Nowitzki?  I'd say a poor man's Nowitzki would be a big man who can score anywhere on the floor but primarily plays on the perimeter, averages perhaps 18-20 ppg and 7-8 rpg while shooting good percentages, plays fairly smart on D but lacks the athleticism to be a plus defender, and is a fringe All-Star who maybe makes it in once or twice.  That seems like a pretty plausible ceiling for Olynyk at this point.

EDIT: I guess maybe whether he could be a better-shooting, better-defending, better-rebounding Bargnani or a worse-shooting, worse-defending, worse-rebounding Dirk might be splitting hairs to begin with, I just don't see why the more optimistic version is more ridiculous.

[KGs Knee]

To answer the two questions in the thread title, yes Olynyk is quickly becoming an elite shooter.  I seriously doubt he can ever become a "go-to scorer" though.  He doesn't really have the ability to create his own shot.

Ryan Anderson is probably Oly's ceiling. And that is pretty good for a mid-first round pick.

[footey]

Reminds me of Alvan Adams. Different type of bodies but similar type of high post big men with their shooting and passing ability. I think if the Celtics ran their offense through Olynyk in high post like Phoenix did with Adams in late 70s early 80s, they'd get similar results.

I don't think AA could handle the basketball like KO. 

[Meadowlark_Scal]

KO still has a lot to work on.
His full court dribbling = STOP doing it all together.
His dribble drive...stop going in like a wooden indian..ball out in front, no moves, go to the side and post-be big, hold the ball high and look at the defense, or wait for your team.
Be like zeller on rebounding, anticipate and move for it....
DUNK more often....

[Sketch5]

KO still has a lot to work on.
His full court dribbling = STOP doing it all together.
His dribble drive...stop going in like a wooden indian..ball out in front, no moves, go to the side and post-be big, hold the ball high and look at the defense, or wait for your team.
Be like zeller on rebounding, anticipate and move for it....
DUNK more often....

I think you've been watching reruns of last years games. LOL

His full court dribble is fine, yeah some times he goes to far with it, but I trust him in the open court threw traffic more than AB.

He's stiff, it's not going to change, thats who he is. But he has added a nice spin that hasn't gotten blocked as often and the fake pass has froze the defense quite a bit when he's gone to the hoop. 

YEah he can improve on his rebounding, but I think he should be looking at Sully on how to board than Zeller. Both are no jump position rebounders.

And he's not a leaper, so dunks are going to be rare. Don't look for them and be excited when they do happen.

He's a work in progress, but the good news it even from the end of last season he's gotten better. Will he be a star? Probably not. Will he be a solid NBA player? Yeah theres a good chance.

[Donoghus]

To answer the two questions in the thread title, yes Olynyk is quickly becoming an elite shooter.  I seriously doubt he can ever become a "go-to scorer" though.  He doesn't really have the ability to create his own shot.

Ryan Anderson is probably Oly's ceiling. And that is pretty good for a mid-first round pick.

This sounds pretty on point.

[slamtheking]

I don't think KO is elite but I do think he needs to shoot more.  would much rather see him putting up 15-18 shots a game than AB. 

I honestly think it might make more sense for KO to take away shots from Green instead of Bradley.

please elaborate.

IMO, AB is the one with an itchy trigger finger that needs to be dialed back to taking backdoor cuts and open jumpers with minimal dribbling.  I think he takes too many bad (or at least questionable) shots.  I don't consider Green to have that same issue