Can we talk about Olynyk? Is he an elite shooter? Can he be a go-to scorer?

[LarBrd33]

This team as a whole is fun to watch right now.  It's a weird roster... all offense and no defense.  We're scoring 106 points per night (2nd in the league) and giving up 108 per night (2nd in the league).  I guess that happens when you put the team's best shooter at center despite the fact he's not a center.  I mean... you can't NOT play Olynyk right now.  The kid is on fire.   He'll have to do at center. 

Let's talk about him.  He's the most interesting player on the team right now.  In last season's 26 post all-star games he averaged 11.7 points, 6.2 rebounds on 51%/43%/82% shooting in 22.5 minutes... Couldn't help but wonder what he'd do with more minutes.

First 8 games:  14.4 points, 6.5 rebounds, 61%/48%/78% in 28mpg. 

That's ridiculous.  That's a true shooting percentage of 70%.  Completely unsustainable.  The highest in the league last year was Kyle Korver at 65%. 

He's still only taking 9.3 shots per game... that's less than Rondo, Sully, Bradley and Green.   Dude needs more shot attempts.  I want to see what happens when he stops being unselfish.  I want to see what happens when he starts forcing things... taking bad shots.  All the great players do this.   Will he get exposed as someone who can only take open shots... or prove himself to be an elite scorer?   Last night he took a season-high 13 shots and predictably finished with a season-high 21 points.  His FG% didn't suffer... he still shot 61%.     We also can't rule out the possibility he's just streaking out of his mind.  The last young Celtic player to shoot like this for an extended period of time was Delonte West.  Delonte had a month or two where he looked like he was possibly the best shooter alive.  He eventually came down to earth... and then fled it on a spaceship of the imagination.

So what do you think?  Is Olynyk an elite shooter.  Is his high FG% merely the result of a hot streak and his overly unselfish shot selection?   Can he keep this up?  Is it a product of him playing out of position at center?   Could he do this at a more natural PF position next to a less offensively inclined defender?  Can he sustain efficiency with more aggressive play?   Do you think Oly could develop into a go-to scorer? 

[LarBrd33]

Also should mention that during Olynyk's last season at Gonzaga, he didn't take a lot of threes, but in 32 games he averaged 17.8 points and 7.3 rebounds on 63%/30%/78% shooting in 26.4mpg.    63% shooting...he was pretty darn efficient on that level as well.

[Csfan1984]

Idk if he will be elite but him and Sully both need more shots. They can have great 4 minute stretches and the team just goes away from them.  But AB, Rondo, Green, or Thornton make two in a row and it is heat check time ...smh. Olynyk and Sully can have some 30pt games on good a night if this team just feeds them. Brad has to understand development is as important if not more important than tanking. Get the young bigs more shots!

[jambr380]

You basically nailed it in your last paragraph - Olynyk deserves to play with a defensive-oriented center. Unfortunately, that also means moving Sullinger. While I really like both of them, Olynyk seems to do more within the flow of the game. Also, as you have pointed out, his entire history suggests that he should at least continue to be an above average shooter/scorer throughout his career. This doesn't mean he will reach superstar or even star status, but he has been unbelievably consistent. The fact that he is rebounding at a decent rate and is a fantastic playmaker out of the high post is just a bonus.

Sully has proven more so far and may even be a more successful player in the NBA, but both of these guys are worthy of starting, just not on the same team (the 108 ppg given up is proof of that). This team would be so awesome with a DeAndre Jordan type of center.

[Ogaju]

the answers to your two questions are

YES AND TBD!!

[Celtics18]

The thing that is special about Olynyk is that he's not just a "shooter."  His range for a seven footer is nice, but it's his ability to put the ball on the floor and create off the dribble, coupled with his overall feel for the game, that is going to set him apart.

 

[LarBrd33]

Idk if he will be elite but him and Sully both need more shots. They can have great 4 minute stretches and the team just goes away from them.  But AB, Rondo, Green, or Thornton make two in a row and it is heat check time ...smh. Olynyk and Sully can have some 30pt games on good a night if this team just feeds them. Brad has to understand development is as important if not more important than tanking. Get the young bigs more shots!

Right now, the great thing about everyone sharing the wealth is that it increases the trade value for everyone.  Green is averaging 19 points.  Bradley and Sully are both averaging 15 points.  It's nice... keep them assets valuable, baby.   But I really want to see what would happen if we forced Oly to take 16 shots a night.  Right now he seems like by far our most consistent shooter.  I'm curious what happens if we try to utilize him as the first option.

[Ogaju]

You basically nailed it in your last paragraph - Olynyk deserves to play with a defensive-oriented center. Unfortunately, that also means moving Sullinger. While I really like both of them, Olynyk seems to do more within the flow of the game. Also, as you have pointed out, his entire history suggests that he should at least continue to be an above average shooter/scorer throughout his career. This doesn't mean he will reach superstar or even star status, but he has been unbelievably consistent. The fact that he is rebounding at a decent rate and is a fantastic playmaker out of the high post is just a bonus.

Sully has proven more so far and may even be a more successful player in the NBA, but both of these guys are worthy of starting, just not on the same team (the 108 ppg given up is proof of that). This team would be so awesome with a DeAndre Jordan type of center.

So which one of them do you trade?

[Evantime34]

Olynyk needs to shoot more. I don't think he'll ever be the type of player that can consistently create his own shot. I don't think he will ever be the time of player you can isolate and tell him to go get his shot.

However, I think in the flow of the offense he could shoot 15 shots a game and score a lot more still at a high percentage.

[LarBrd33]

You basically nailed it in your last paragraph - Olynyk deserves to play with a defensive-oriented center. Unfortunately, that also means moving Sullinger. While I really like both of them, Olynyk seems to do more within the flow of the game. Also, as you have pointed out, his entire history suggests that he should at least continue to be an above average shooter/scorer throughout his career. This doesn't mean he will reach superstar or even star status, but he has been unbelievably consistent. The fact that he is rebounding at a decent rate and is a fantastic playmaker out of the high post is just a bonus.

Sully has proven more so far and may even be a more successful player in the NBA, but both of these guys are worthy of starting, just not on the same team (the 108 ppg given up is proof of that). This team would be so awesome with a DeAndre Jordan type of center.

I totally agree with this.  I'm often a pessimist, but I seriously love the players on this team.  I love watching Sully and I love watching Oly.  I love the starting lineup.  I just don't see it working long-term.  At some point, someone has to be traded or moved to the bench.  It's the same way I felt when I use to see Jeff Green playing PF next to Durant.  I knew Green was too good to be a mere backup, but you KNEW that wasn't going to work long-term.  Obviously Durant was not going anywhere so you knew a Jeff Green trade for a real big man was inevitable.  I predicted the Kendrick Perkins trade a couple years before it even happened.   Unfortunately, the gap between Sully and Oly doesn't seem nearly as large as Durant/Green.  It's kind of a bummer, but at some point we're probably going to have trade one of those guys... and I'm not sure which one it will be.   

I'm not even sure it's as easy as saying "trade the weakest of the two", because it seems they both can be effective starters.  It depends who would be the best fit on the roster.  Even if I were to accept that SUlly was the better of the two players, if we're making a hypothetical move for an offensively challenged center (someone like Roy Hibbert), it might make the most sense to keep Oly because of his playmaking and shooting ability.

[bleedGREENdon]

Athletic defensive center keep Olynyk

Slow defensive center keep sully.

I mean it doesn't have to be like that but if you had to choose which way to go, I say that's what  you could look at.

Kelly runs the floor way better then sully, also has more offensive tools. Aside from that Sully is the better half court player, better defender(not by a lot) and is an elite rebounding Power forward.

Now say you put a deAndre Jordan you want Kelly

A Marc Gasol you go Sully.

Even tho Marc would go good with kelly as well. I mean I don't see how you can't keep both and have one come off the bench. But if you had to choose as much as I love sully, he has more value in a trade and Kelly has that higher upside potential as a starting PF at 7' who can shoot and run and pass.

We just need a [dang] center and were a playoff team. Add a bonfire scorer, were a championship contender.

[Celtics18]

I agree that trading either Olynyk or Sullinger for center help seem like a logical step for this team to take.

I would vastly prefer to keep Olynyk if it comes down to one or the other. 

[LarBrd33]

Athletic defensive center keep Olynyk

Slow defensive center keep sully.

I mean it doesn't have to be like that but if you had to choose which way to go, I say that's what  you could look at.

Kelly runs the floor way better then sully, also has more offensive tools. Aside from that Sully is the better half court player, better defender(not by a lot) and is an elite rebounding Power forward.

Now say you put a deAndre Jordan you want Kelly

A Marc Gasol you go Sully.

Even tho Marc would go good with kelly as well. I mean I don't see how you can't keep both and have one come off the bench. But if you had to choose as much as I love sully, he has more value in a trade and Kelly has that higher upside potential as a starting PF at 7' who can shoot and run and pass.

We just need a [dang] center and were a playoff team. Add a bonfire scorer, were a championship contender.

I agree with some of what you said.  Curious why you'd want to keep Sully if it was a slow/defensive big.  I think the more offensively-inept the center, the more you need Olynyk out there. 

Also, I still don't think Sullinger is an "elite" rebounder.  I don't see evidence of him being an elite rebounder.  He's ok.  Averages about 10 rebounds per 36 minutes.  Olynyk averages about 8-9.  Neither is elite.  It would be great to get an elite rebounding center, though.. in which case, I'd keep Olynyk over Sully.

[Snakehead]

I've been high on him but I have to say... he may have a ceiling even past my expectations.

I think he is still reluctant but he is slowly going away from it.  There's about 3-4 plays per game this year where I see him really forcing the issue and creating a play or taking a jump shot quickly and he is doing well with those plays.  Everyone around the team says they are all encouraging him to be more aggressive and slowly but surely it is happening.  Another example is how often he passes when he's in the paint to the other big, which I often actually really like, but there are times where he clearly could have the shot if he took it but he passes to Sully instead.  Last night in particular there were a couple of those where he just took the shot.  One was a jump hook/tear drop kind of shot that was pretty ridiculous for a 7 footer.

I have thought he can be a good all around player and a solid scorer but it seems like he might be a pretty big time scorer.  He is just very crafty.  It's hard to describe but he just knows where to be and he can move on the floor.  He is also a capable slasher with some room to operate (which he creates with his shooting and his pump faking).  He even has a pass fake on his drive now and a bit of a eurostep and so he is even beating help defenders.

Rondo will keep finding him and if you run your offense through him you are going to create mismatches on the floor.  And the good thing is he doesn't just pound the ball and he can pass, so it still can be a balanced scoring attack.

I hope he improves his defense so he can avoid fouls.  Frankly I do think the refs have been giving him a really hard time on defense and getting him into early foul trouble and hopefully that starts to go away as he gets more time in the league and more respect.  It's a disappointing part of the game that I think everyone sees is there.  He also does make some silly fouls but he gets little room for error.

Lets see how it continues.  If he keeps it up, will we keep laughing off the Dirk comparisons?  We won't be able to.

For reference, Dirk's second year:

17.5 ppg, 13.6 FGA, 6.5 reb, 2.5 ast, 46% FG, 38% 3 PT


Olynyks now so far:

14.4 ppg, 9.3 FGA, 6.5 reb, 1.8 assists, 61 % FG, 48 % 3PT, 9.3 FGA

[Ogaju]

it looks like a consensus is building in favor of Kelly. If it is this close then you have to go with the 7 footer that does not have a history of weight and lumbar spine issues. If KO had McHale length arms we would not even be having this discussion, then again if he did he probably would not have the handles he has right now. Who knows.

I would vote to keep KO if it came down to a vote.