Bradley is an awful starting SG

[Beat LA]

Had to come out of retirement for this thread...


Avery Bradley:

Awesome High School prospect (1 and 2 with John Wall), subpar year in College, and I thought we stole him in the draft. Then he started to play for us...

In the few years he's been here, he's been injured twice (substantial time), and still has one of the weakest dribbles for either Guard position. In small samples he's a decently average shooter, given the green light to shoot, he is barely average.

Now that he's exerting more effort on offense, I feel like he doesn't like he used to on defense. Marcus Smart threatening his minutes, seems like it motivates him though. Not sure what's up with AB but his "stellar" and much talked about "lock down defense" has been anything but those things.

I was mad at his contract, but then decided 8mil is a decent contract even for a defensive specialist. Especially considering the majority of this forum was at one time willing to give James Posey a 6-7mil/year deal back in the day.

Anyways, before I start ranting... I just want us all to open our eyes, put down the kool-aid and see who Avery Bradley is..

He is a VERY undersized 2 guard (6-2 with sneakers? cmon son...), but not skilled enough to play the 1. He doesnt shoot well enough to deserve to start in my opinion. He is Tony Allen 2.0... only he has a more consistent jump shot.



This team needs to keep Rondo, start Marcus at the 2, and free up minutes for James Young and Turner (yuck cant believe i said Turner).

Package Avery, Bass, and Thornton/Wallace (or exclude the last two) for anything decent.

That was a completely different situation, but yes, Posey did deserve that money, imo.  He wasn't just a defensive specialist - he was our glue guy, Mr. Intangibles, a clutch shooter and a great big game player.  The guy could also guard 2s, 3s, and occassionally 4s, such as Rashard Lewis, Antawn Jamison, Lamar Odom, etc.  His versatility was a huge weapon on both ends for us.  I'm not saying that Bradley is awful, like the title of this thread suggests lol, but he can't guard as many positions, has been frequently hurt, can't dribble or pass, and hasn't been in the same type of pressure-packed moments that Posey was in, so we can't compare the two honestly.  Yet, anyway.  Avery has developed into a very good to excellent shooter over the past two seasons, but, and maybe it's just me, when he's missed a lot of shots this year it almost feels like he isn't out there at all, on either end.

[TheFlex]

OK then, could you enlighten me with statistics of your choice?

edit: I would add that defensive ability in general relies on the talent of surrounding teammates. That's the premise of my argument.

I couldn't, because I am not aware of such. You'd actually have to watch a game and attempt to evaluate individual plays on their merit. If someone around here has access to Synergy Sports, perhaps they can share whether those guys have anything more sophisticated.

I think he agreed without realizing it. He said the stats are team based which supports that you need other defensive players to play good defense.

No, that's not what I said. I said that trying to extrapolate an individual defense metric from team stats results in a flawed estimate.

Your argument doesn't make any sense. I said that the impact of one's individual defensive ability on whether or not a shot is made, missed, or never taken depends on the defensive ability of the team surrounding him. You say this is not true. I present stats that suggest that a consistent defensive player such as Tony Allen has less impact on the offensive output of the opposing team if the defensive squad around him is inferior. You claim these stats only reflect team ability, and thus prove my point, which is that it's hard to say Bradley is a "bad defender" with such conviction when his defensive impact today is being compared to his defensive impact a few years ago when he had a far superior supporting cast.

[TheFlex]

Tony Allen plays on a good defensive team.

Tony Allen had to play on a team where the middle was manned by Raef LaFrenz and Mark Blount, and his defense didn't seem to suffer.

Tony Allen defensive rating 2004-05 to 2006-07: 104, 106, 104

Tony Allen defensive rating 2007-08 (year KG came to town): 99

Tony Allen defensive rating 2013-14 (with M. Gasol behind him): 101

http://www.basketball-reference.com/players/a/allento01.html#per_poss::none

How does Wesley Matthews compare to AB and Tony in terms of these metrics?  I'm just curious.  I love that guy lol.

Posted a 111 defensive rating two years ago, 110 last year and 106 this year. None of them are particularly good on their own, but when you consider that he has Robin Lopez behind him, the numbers are even worse. On the flip side, he's a terrific offensive talent.

[celtics2030]

If the 2007/2008 championship team had Avery Bradley of now instead of Ray Allen they would probably finish with 10 less wins and maybe lose in the 1st round or finals.

[Nerf DPOY]

It's amusing to me because I remember when a significant portion of the posters here hated TA.

He did have the tendency to dribble the ball off of his legs and out of bounds more than once a game.

[KeepRondo]

great one

Right, well, I find it helps me when I'm getting bent out of shape after railing on about silly things on the internet. Just trying to be friendly.

I don't think you'll find very many people, or very much evidence, that suggests Bradley's on Tony Allen's level defensively. Like I said before, that's fine -- he's still a good defender, he's just not TA. I don't understand why that's so upsetting to you?

wow. You are so full of yourself. When did I ever say Bradley was a better defender then Tony Allen and why would that bother me? You do a lot of assuming.

[TheFlex]

great one

Right, well, I find it helps me when I'm getting bent out of shape after railing on about silly things on the internet. Just trying to be friendly.

I don't think you'll find very many people, or very much evidence, that suggests Bradley's on Tony Allen's level defensively. Like I said before, that's fine -- he's still a good defender, he's just not TA. I don't understand why that's so upsetting to you?

wow. You are so full of yourself. When did I ever say Bradley was a better defender then Tony Allen and why would that bother me? You do a lot of assuming.

[EatSleepBreatheGreen]

Maybe I was being harsh on Avery but I am just disappointed at the thought that he could be our starting 2 for years to come. Please no!!! Don't get me wrong, AB isn't great but he isn't terrible, he's just not a starter. He's a backup 1 or a backup 2, sixth man type of guy.

We need either a bigger body 2, or a go to scoring 2, preferably one that is both.

[D.o.s.]

great one

Right, well, I find it helps me when I'm getting bent out of shape after railing on about silly things on the internet. Just trying to be friendly.

I don't think you'll find very many people, or very much evidence, that suggests Bradley's on Tony Allen's level defensively. Like I said before, that's fine -- he's still a good defender, he's just not TA. I don't understand why that's so upsetting to you?

wow. You are so full of yourself. When did I ever say Bradley was a better defender then Tony Allen and why would that bother me? You do a lot of assuming.

I don't know when, or if, you said that Bradley was a better defender than Tony Allen. I certainly never insinuated as much, because that's not what we're talking about, is it?

[BballTim]

If the 2007/2008 championship team had Avery Bradley of now instead of Ray Allen they would probably finish with 10 less wins and maybe lose in the 1st round or finals.

  They might have done worse in the playoffs, I don't think they'd have won 10 less games.

[LooseCannon]

Bradley is an excellent defender with offensive chops too. But he sometimes does not play within the system; He likes to shoot early and often; A little bit of coaching on this and he'll be fine;

I actually think that Stevens probably wants to push the pace by having more shots early in the clock before the defense is set (so long as those shots are above average and Bradley is a good enough jump shooter that an uncontested long two from him, especially if not off the dribble, is probably above average in efficiency).

[LooseCannon]

Maybe I was being harsh on Avery but I am just disappointed at the thought that he could be our starting 2 for years to come. Please no!!! Don't get me wrong, AB isn't great but he isn't terrible, he's just not a starter. He's a backup 1 or a backup 2, sixth man type of guy.

We need either a bigger body 2, or a go to scoring 2, preferably one that is both.

If your idea of a go-to scoring 2 is someone who "creates" his own shots off the dribble, that's pretty much the most inefficient scoring situation in basketball and the Celtics should avoid acquiring players who prefer to operate that way.

[tarheelsxxiii]

OK then, could you enlighten me with statistics of your choice?

edit: I would add that defensive ability in general relies on the talent of surrounding teammates. That's the premise of my argument.

I couldn't, because I am not aware of such. You'd actually have to watch a game and attempt to evaluate individual plays on their merit. If someone around here has access to Synergy Sports, perhaps they can share whether those guys have anything more sophisticated.

I think he agreed without realizing it. He said the stats are team based which supports that you need other defensive players to play good defense.

No, that's not what I said. I said that trying to extrapolate an individual defense metric from team stats results in a flawed estimate.

Koz, if you're going to make this argument - which I agree is a valid one, given our measures of performance on D are horrid/non-existent - you've gotta provide some qualitative data to back it up. I'm in the middle of the 2 camps... I think he's better than others think/expected offensively (and he's being asked to shoot more, he's not a chucker), and that he's a solid defender when matched up against PGs and smaller SGs. 8 mill seems like a lot for that - I wasn't pleased - but if you're gonna label him, grossly, as a "poor/sub-par defender," you've got to back it up qualitatively. Our team defense seems too horrid to label him as poor without having specifics..

[Beat LA]

It's amusing to me because I remember when a significant portion of the posters here hated TA.

He did have the tendency to dribble the ball off of his legs and out of bounds more than once a game.

Yeah, he was a bonehead, and I don't miss him at all.

[EatSleepBreatheGreen]

Maybe I was being harsh on Avery but I am just disappointed at the thought that he could be our starting 2 for years to come. Please no!!! Don't get me wrong, AB isn't great but he isn't terrible, he's just not a starter. He's a backup 1 or a backup 2, sixth man type of guy.

We need either a bigger body 2, or a go to scoring 2, preferably one that is both.

If your idea of a go-to scoring 2 is someone who "creates" his own shots off the dribble, that's pretty much the most inefficient scoring situation in basketball and the Celtics should avoid acquiring players who prefer to operate that way.

Ask me my idea of a go-to 2, don't assume.

While it may be true that isolation type play is inefficient, sometimes it's needed. How many times have you seen our offense clicking on all cylinders and then we hit that 3rd quarter wall where it's a brick fest? Much like Paul Pierce was for us, we need a GO TO SCORER. Someone you give the ball to because you know there's a higher probability of them putting it in the hole than the defense stopping them. My thought on getting a go-to sg to replace AB is that I want someone with a more reliable shot, can keep their dribble alive, make something out of nothing, bail us out sometimes type of player. I understand those are rare, so I'll keep wishing.. Either way, in my opinion AB should not be our 2 of the future. Period.