Woj: Celtics in Play for Embiid

[Fafnir]

And the "Doesn't have the medical reports' thing is a bunch of crap.  The teams that didn't get the medical reports will just buy them from the teams that did.   You aren't going to send it to 6 teams and expect it to remain secret what's inside.

You really think teams are just buying and selling medical reports? If they are then they're doing so under the table as it'd be illegal otherwise. Releasing your medical records to a team doesn't allow that team to sell them to the highest bidder, same thing with team doctor's reports.

[bknova]

It's amazing to me that so many are willing to risk such a high pick on a guy who has a GREAT chance of never being healthy. I'd really be frustrated if we take Embiid and he's Greg Oden 2.0. This entire year would have been for naught.

Wait, what are we risking.  At 6, presumably Wiggins, Parker, Exum, Smart, and one of Gordon/Vonleh/Randle are off the board. 
At 6, we are risking not drafting whichever two players of Gordon/Vonleh/Randle/Smart are still on the board.  At 3, your risking not picking 4 of those guys.

Gordon is going to have a long, solid, but not spectacular NBA career, as is Smart.  Randle could make some all star teams.  Vonleh might too.  I don't see any one of those 4 as a centerpiece on championship team. All could be solid rotation players, a couple starters but none the go to guy.  Whereas Exum, Wiggins, and Parker can all be that guy.  To me the risk is minimal at 6.

[kozlodoev]

It's amazing to me that so many are willing to risk such a high pick on a guy who has a GREAT chance of never being healthy. I'd really be frustrated if we take Embiid and he's Greg Oden 2.0. This entire year would have been for naught.

Wait, what are we risking.  At 6, presumably Wiggins, Parker, Exum, Smart, and one of Gordon/Vonleh/Randle are off the board. 
At 6, we are risking not drafting whichever two players of Gordon/Vonleh/Randle/Smart are still on the board.  At 3, your risking not picking 4 of those guys.

Gordon is going to have a long, solid, but not spectacular NBA career, as is Smart.  Randle could make some all star teams.  Vonleh might too.  I don't see any one of those 4 as a centerpiece on championship team. All could be solid rotation players, a couple starters but none the go to guy.  Whereas Exum, Wiggins, and Parker can all be that guy.  To me the risk is minimal at 6.

Well, also you're presumably risking everything you could potentially get in a trade.

[TwinTower14]

Some people hear the name Embiid and in their mind they hear "Oden".

It's not the same situation.  I've read enough opinions on this to believe that Embiid's going to be fine.  He's not some gimp with old man disease who lumbers up and down a court.  This is a fluid young player with a fixable injury.

And he's not falling past 4.  If he's still available at #6, it means there's something really serious in those medical reports that we haven't heard about yet... and at that point, all bets are off... He might still be there at #17

Or Philly feels he's not worth the risk at number three. Orlando and Utah don't have (reportedly) his records to make a conclusion. It's possible he'll slip to six.

Philly could pass on him.  But there's no point in Orlando passing on him at #4.  Either they take him for themselves or trade him to a team like Utah/Boston/LA/Sac to move down a couple spots and get an additional asset.   If Orlando still has that pick (and hasn't traded it to the Cavs... who would take Embiid) and decides it doesn't want another future superstar big man... it will be a bidding war to take that pick away from them.

And the "Doesn't have the medical reports' thing is a bunch of crap.  The teams that didn't get the medical reports will just buy them from the teams that did.   You aren't going to send it to 6 teams and expect it to remain secret what's inside.

Correct me if I am wrong but I believe the only teams that have Embiid?s medical records were Cleveland, Milwaukee, Philly, Boston and LAL???  If I am the owner of the Magic and Jazz, I am not giving my GM the permission to draft a guy that our doctor?s didn?t have a chance to OK??  So, I rule out Magic and Utah ( that?s just common sense )?.Cleveland isn?t going to take him, unless they trade and move back??  Milwaukee already said they wouldn?t pick him??  That leaves Philly, I find it hard to believe that Philly is going to pass on one of Wiggins, Parker or Exum for a guy that can?t play next season??  I think it?s a better than 50/50 chance that Embiid is available at 6, not sure if DA pulls the trigger but I think he will be there, unless a team trades up? But I don?t see it because nobody has seen the report?   His agent is driving this process and I will be stunned if Embiid is not  a LAL or Celtic by about 9:30 tonight?.

[LooseCannon]

Some people hear the name Embiid and in their mind they hear "Oden".

It's not the same situation.  I've read enough opinions on this to believe that Embiid's going to be fine.  He's not some gimp with old man disease who lumbers up and down a court.  This is a fluid young player with a fixable injury.

And he's not falling past 4.  If he's still available at #6, it means there's something really serious in those medical reports that we haven't heard about yet... and at that point, all bets are off... He might still be there at #17

So not a red flag to you that 3 years into his basketball career he already has a chronically bad back and is going to miss a year because of a foot injury?

I think there are people who dispute that his back problem is chronic.  A lot of people compare Embiid's back issue to a similar stress fracture suffered by Andre Drummond.

[footey]

It's amazing to me that so many are willing to risk such a high pick on a guy who has a GREAT chance of never being healthy. I'd really be frustrated if we take Embiid and he's Greg Oden 2.0. This entire year would have been for naught.

Wait, what are we risking.  At 6, presumably Wiggins, Parker, Exum, Smart, and one of Gordon/Vonleh/Randle are off the board. 
At 6, we are risking not drafting whichever two players of Gordon/Vonleh/Randle/Smart are still on the board.  At 3, your risking not picking 4 of those guys.

Gordon is going to have a long, solid, but not spectacular NBA career, as is Smart.  Randle could make some all star teams.  Vonleh might too.  I don't see any one of those 4 as a centerpiece on championship team. All could be solid rotation players, a couple starters but none the go to guy.  Whereas Exum, Wiggins, and Parker can all be that guy.  To me the risk is minimal at 6.

Well, also you're presumably risking everything you could potentially get in a trade.

Like all defensive first teamer Kevin Love?

[MBunge]

Philly could pass on him.  But there's no point in Orlando passing on him at #4.  Either they take him for themselves or trade him to a team like Utah/Boston/LA/Sac to move down a couple spots and get an additional asset.   

I believe the word is out that Utah is not taking Embiid and Sacramento sure isn't taking someone who might not play this year, given that they've pretty much got to be playoffs or bust.  And what would LA have to give Orlando in a trade?  They have no 2nd round pick this year, no first or second round picks next year and no first round pick in 2017.  Drop any further in the draft than that and I don't think Orlando could count on getting the player they want.

Mike

[TwinTower14]

Philly could pass on him.  But there's no point in Orlando passing on him at #4.  Either they take him for themselves or trade him to a team like Utah/Boston/LA/Sac to move down a couple spots and get an additional asset.   

I believe the word is out that Utah is not taking Embiid and Sacramento sure isn't taking someone who might not play this year, given that they've pretty much got to be playoffs or bust.  And what would LA have to give Orlando in a trade?  They have no 2nd round pick this year, no first or second round picks next year and no first round pick in 2017.  Drop any further in the draft than that and I don't think Orlando could count on getting the player they want.

Mike


Bill Simmons - Celts not nearly as sold on Embiid as people think. The medicals worry them. Could still take him, more likely they trade down. (PS-Go USA!)

[footey]

He's going in the top 4

I hope you're wrong.

I hope I'm wrong too, but he's still going in the Top 4.  Philly or Orlando will leverage their position by taking Embiid and trading down.

They take Embiid and trade down with whom?  I don't think Philly will pass Exum for that so called opportunity.  ORL could try to play that game with Boston I suppose.  But with who else?  LA?  What would they be able to offer better than us?

[MBunge]

Philly could pass on him.  But there's no point in Orlando passing on him at #4.  Either they take him for themselves or trade him to a team like Utah/Boston/LA/Sac to move down a couple spots and get an additional asset.   

I believe the word is out that Utah is not taking Embiid and Sacramento sure isn't taking someone who might not play this year, given that they've pretty much got to be playoffs or bust.  And what would LA have to give Orlando in a trade?  They have no 2nd round pick this year, no first or second round picks next year and no first round pick in 2017.  Drop any further in the draft than that and I don't think Orlando could count on getting the player they want.

Mike


Bill Simmons - Celts not nearly as sold on Embiid as people think. The medicals worry them. Could still take him, more likely they trade down. (PS-Go USA!)

Why trade down?  Ainge has already got a 2nd first rounder this year, two and possibly three next year and might have even more if he trades Rondo.  Boston has already got plenty of mid-level players.  They need the superstars with which they can surround them.

Mike

[McHales Pits]

This is how I see it right now...
1) Cavs - Wiggins
2) Bucks - Parker
3) 76ers - Exum
4) Magic - Smart
5) Jazz - Gordon
6) Celtics - Embiid

[footey]

This is how I see it right now...
1) Cavs - Wiggins
2) Bucks - Parker
3) 76ers - Exum
4) Magic - Smart
5) Jazz - Gordon
6) Celtics - Embiid

that is how I hope it.

[CM0]

It's amazing to me that so many are willing to risk such a high pick on a guy who has a GREAT chance of never being healthy. I'd really be frustrated if we take Embiid and he's Greg Oden 2.0. This entire year would have been for naught.

Wait, what are we risking.  At 6, presumably Wiggins, Parker, Exum, Smart, and one of Gordon/Vonleh/Randle are off the board. 
At 6, we are risking not drafting whichever two players of Gordon/Vonleh/Randle/Smart are still on the board.  At 3, your risking not picking 4 of those guys.

Gordon is going to have a long, solid, but not spectacular NBA career, as is Smart.  Randle could make some all star teams.  Vonleh might too.  I don't see any one of those 4 as a centerpiece on championship team. All could be solid rotation players, a couple starters but none the go to guy.  Whereas Exum, Wiggins, and Parker can all be that guy.  To me the risk is minimal at 6.

Food for thought: This model gives Marcus Smart a 32% chance of becoming a "star" (2nd only to Embiid and this model doesn't reflect his health woes).  It gives Gordon a 27% chance, which is equal to Wiggins.

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0Aipd_3kGfREgdHRtcThFd3ZtMlRPYldIRmdGb241RlE&usp=drive_web#gid=9

It's also important to consider that Smart and Gordon are extremely unlikely to flame out- their absolute floor is solid role-players who will have trade value. There's a significant risk of Embiid being utterly worthless as an asset in a few years.

[Waew]

1 thing for sure. All the Celtics news so far has been 90% embiid, and then something about 2nd founders.

[TwinTower14]

I am a huge Smart guy, I am fine with drafting him and shipping Rondo and start the rebuild with him...