Over or under TJ Warren 17 PPG in three years.

[MBunge]

And the obsession with shooting threes stems entirely from the fetish for floor spacing, which itself flows from the conviction that you win games by isolating your best players and letting them go one-one-one.

This isn't true at all.

Floor spacing is crucial to any sort of good offensive action and/or ball movement. Not to mention also being able to transition from offense to defense after the shot is taken.

That's why I said FETISH for floor spacing, where guys who literally do nothing (and often can do nothing) but stand outside the arc and wait for someone to pass them the ball to shoot are considered worthwhile players.

Mike

[Fafnir]

And the obsession with shooting threes stems entirely from the fetish for floor spacing, which itself flows from the conviction that you win games by isolating your best players and letting them go one-one-one.

This isn't true at all.

Floor spacing is crucial to any sort of good offensive action and/or ball movement. Not to mention also being able to transition from offense to defense after the shot is taken.

That's why I said FETISH for floor spacing, where guys who literally do nothing (and often can do nothing) but stand outside the arc and wait for someone to pass them the ball to shoot are considered worthwhile players.

Mike

Still isn't true, but feel free to keep walking back until your statement is somewhat reasonable, you're halfway there.

[MBunge]

And the obsession with shooting threes stems entirely from the fetish for floor spacing, which itself flows from the conviction that you win games by isolating your best players and letting them go one-one-one.

This isn't true at all.

Floor spacing is crucial to any sort of good offensive action and/or ball movement. Not to mention also being able to transition from offense to defense after the shot is taken.

That's why I said FETISH for floor spacing, where guys who literally do nothing (and often can do nothing) but stand outside the arc and wait for someone to pass them the ball to shoot are considered worthwhile players.

Mike

Still isn't true, but feel free to keep walking back unitl your statement is somewhat reasonable, you're halfway there.

Uh, repeating what I said so you can understand it isn't walking back anything.  Or did you just not know what the word "fetish" meant?  If someone says "you shouldn't have a fetish for drinking orange juice", do you think that person is saying you should never, ever drink a single drop of orange juice in your entire life?

Mike

[Fafnir]

You did walk it back, you turned it from "iso-ball" to a critique of one-dimensional players who can shoot. Well maybe not a walk back, but you changed what you are saying. The second critique is closer to true than the first though I still don't believe it to be so.

The idea that there is an unhealthy "obsession" or "fetish" with shooting threes in the NBA today is wrong. Just like the idea that this "obsession" or fetish flows from isolating your best players is wrong.

It ignores what the Spurs/Hawks/Heat/Houston/etc. are really doing offensively and how the game is changing as teams are coming to recognize that the mix of three pointers offensively and most importantly three point threats on the court that produce the most efficient offense.

It is very difficult to build an efficient NBA offense in the league today without 3 three point threats on the court at all times. Even then the 4th player should be a threat to hit a jump shot too, but it doesn't have to be at three point distance. So its a problem when your SF can't shoot from distance as PFs who shoot 3s are very rare.

[Donoghus]

Definitely Under.

[PickNRoll]

I'll take the over.

[D.o.s.]

And the obsession with shooting threes stems entirely from the fetish for floor spacing, which itself flows from the conviction that you win games by isolating your best players and letting them go one-one-one.

Mike

I agree -- an automatic low post game really is a thing of beauty, and those guys need space to operate.

[Who]

I think TJ Warren is going to be guy like Nick Young or Marcus Thornton. A gunner that comes off the bench because all-around game is lacking. If lucky, in certain rare situations, such a player can start and would be capable of scoring 16-20ppg (in 30+mpg) but on most teams they will be used as a backup SG/SF and only score 10-12ppg if playing 20-25mpg. On some other teams, they wouldn't even get that much playing time and only be a 6-8ppg guy.

So I'll take the under.

[colincb]

He really could have 23 ppg scoring potential.

He really could be some kind of bigger James Harden type scorer, with more of an emphasis on scoring around the basket.

His last few weeks of the season were off the charts. He was averaging almost 30 ppg for a stretch there, going for over 40 twice in a row against ACC teams. Jabari only scored 30 or more a couple times all season.

There's big star potential there that will be looked back at regretfully by several teams that pass him over, if he does indeed fall to the late teens.

23PPG?  Come on now, only 8 people in the entire league averaged that much and you think within 3 year Warren will be doing that?  Let's get realistic here people...

CelticsBlog, where realism takes a back seat to fantasy.

I like Warren at #17 more so than over 17. Tough to see him get there in 3 years with Green and Wallace locked in for the next 2 years at SF.

Did the OP put any conditions about him being a Celtic and averaging 17 a game? I didn't see any. And considering that at the moment we really don't have many commitments past the next 2 years, I'm not seeing why it couldn't be possible here. He DOES have touch all over the court. He has the size to score in traffic and while his 3 pt shot wasn't consistent last year he's still young enough and is working on it. You guys realize that we're not talking about a senior here right? He was a sophomore last year, just like Marcus Smart was. Obviously like with most rookies predictions like this are gonna depend on the team he lands on. But TJ Warren has been scoring 25ppg off curls, backdoor cuts, floaters, and the like against mostly zone defenses in college geared to stop him. Now he's gonna be able to do the same thing against mostly man-to man defense not keyed on him(at least not initially). You're deluding yourself if you don't think this kid knows how to score.

I didn't say he couldn't score did I?  As far as the OP not being Celtic specific, that's true, but it doesn't help him where he's projected to go in this draft does it? After ORL at 12, we were by far the worst team in the rest of the first round, so on what one of those teams is he going to get touches and playing time at SF to get to 17 PPG in three years? 

Warren doesn't have touch from everywhere on the floor either.  Shoots under 39% on jumpers and 76% at the rim.  He's not going to get to the rim more than LBJ does either as Warren did in college (same with Smart, Gordon, Randle, etc who made a living going to the hoop in the minors). Going to face men instead of teenagers, bigger athletes, better athletes, better defenders, better players, better coaches., tougher lifestyle.

I like Warren at #17, but there were only 3 SFs who scored 17 or more PPG last year (Durant, George, and Gay playing on a bad team).  Only one SF scored 23+ PPG.