Why the celtics should not draft Kristaps Porzingis at 17#

[Evantime34]

This is exactly the type of player I want with our 17th pick so I am on board.

It's actually exactly the type of player we would love to have at 6, if he was a year older and stronger.

I can see Danny trading back from 6 or trading up from 17, although he might just sit tight at 17 and take Kyle Anderson if Porzingis is gone by then.

I'm curious what type of asset we could get for moving back from 6. I think there are 5 guys in the second group so if Danny likes a guy like McDermott then i'm fine trading back if the value is right.

However, I wouldn't trade up from 17 unless we can get one of the players I think is in the top 9 because I feel like someone very good is going to fall to us at 17. The 17th pick has taken a backseat to our lottery pick but the 17th pick in this draft will probably yield someone better than anyone we drafted in the big 3 era.

[NorthernLightning]

@NorthernLighting

Are you this guy's agent/family/close friend/relative? I have honestly never seen anyone go as hard and petition as hard as you have for ANY player....

just saying....

Do you see Sully or KO being a good solution defensively at PF for the long-term, as the league gets more and more athletic? They will both continue to get destroyed on the pick and roll.

Sure, neither KO or Sully are ideal centers, but they are highly skilled for that position and can bring solid production.

With a super-long and athletic power forward playing next to either KO or Sully at center, we get our much needed boost of P and R defense, as well as our much needed boost in rim protection. And Porzingis can already shoot 3s and put the ball on the floor.

If you just go the Asik route, you have to give up significant assets to get him, then pay him 15 million this year with no assurance that he'll return next year even if you throw tons of money at him.

Asik also is strictly a one way player, and we'd end up playing 4 on 5 when on offense, just like with Perk.

4 on 5 is much easier when KG, Pierce, and Ray Allen are 3 or those 4 going against 5 defenders.

And then even with all of those costs for Asik, you still have either KO or Sully getting stuck in the mud defensively trying to guard way way more athletic PFs.

So how much progress will have been actually made?

What we really need is a guy much like Porzingis + 10-15 pounds, to form a longterm frontcourt trio of the future with Sully and KO.

If Clint Capela showed more promise and that defensive mentality and toughness that Porzingis shows, I'd put Capela right there as well.

[NorthernLightning]

This is exactly the type of player I want with our 17th pick so I am on board.

It's actually exactly the type of player we would love to have at 6, if he was a year older and stronger.

I can see Danny trading back from 6 or trading up from 17, although he might just sit tight at 17 and take Kyle Anderson if Porzingis is gone by then.

I'm curious what type of asset we could get for moving back from 6. I think there are 5 guys in the second group so if Danny likes a guy like McDermott then i'm fine trading back if the value is right.

However, I wouldn't trade up from 17 unless we can get one of the players I think is in the top 9 because I feel like someone very good is going to fall to us at 17. The 17th pick has taken a backseat to our lottery pick but the 17th pick in this draft will probably yield someone better than anyone we drafted in the big 3 era.

Well, depending on who the pick is at 6, you might be much less inclined to just sit and wait at 17 based on positional need.

Like if we take Gordon at 6 but still want size like Porzingis, Nurkic, or Saric even, you might not want to sit back and wait just because good but redundant players like TJ Warren are likely to drop to 17.

But I can see Ainge taking both Gordon and Kyle Anderson at 17, so maybe he will just sit back.

If Ainge isn't wedded to the idea of Gordon or Smart at 6, he could pick up a solid asset or two by trading back to 9 or 10. Charlotte at 9 has the 24th pick to trade, and Philly at 10 has the 32nd and 39th picks, basically borderline first rounders.

[celticsfan8591]

@NorthernLighting

Are you this guy's agent/family/close friend/relative? I have honestly never seen anyone go as hard and petition as hard as you have for ANY player....

just saying....

He's Kristaps

[D.o.s.]

Not sure about the implication that being a great athlete automatically makes someone a good defender.

[kozlodoev]

Every big man he plays against are grown men, unlike the NCAA where most centers are 6'9-6'10 and nowhere near as skilled as european pros.

Centers among the "european pros" are often not taller than 6'9-6'10.

Folks should also realize that this is professional ball, not interscholastic, "amateur" competition.  Some of Porzingis teammates and competitors have been playing professional ball for several years.   And like most pro leagues it is dominated by the veterans.  It's not a one-and-done culture dominated by hot-shot freshman stars.   You'll find far more guys who have physically filled out with muscle mass in the ACB than you will in the NCAA.

Just because it is "professional" doesn't mean much. Pro sports are considerably less of a "thing" in Europe, for lack of a better term. And in many cases, those leagues are dominated by mediocre, athletically challenged players, who have been around for a long while (and have thus become veterans).

[colincb]

@NorthernLighting

Are you this guy's agent/family/close friend/relative? I have honestly never seen anyone go as hard and petition as hard as you have for ANY player....

just saying....

He's Kristaps

Kristap's mother. Kristaps has some self-doubt.

[Evantime34]

This is exactly the type of player I want with our 17th pick so I am on board.

It's actually exactly the type of player we would love to have at 6, if he was a year older and stronger.

I can see Danny trading back from 6 or trading up from 17, although he might just sit tight at 17 and take Kyle Anderson if Porzingis is gone by then.

I'm curious what type of asset we could get for moving back from 6. I think there are 5 guys in the second group so if Danny likes a guy like McDermott then i'm fine trading back if the value is right.

However, I wouldn't trade up from 17 unless we can get one of the players I think is in the top 9 because I feel like someone very good is going to fall to us at 17. The 17th pick has taken a backseat to our lottery pick but the 17th pick in this draft will probably yield someone better than anyone we drafted in the big 3 era.

Well, depending on who the pick is at 6, you might be much less inclined to just sit and wait at 17 based on positional need.

Like if we take Gordon at 6 but still want size like Porzingis, Nurkic, or Saric even, you might not want to sit back and wait just because good but redundant players like TJ Warren are likely to drop to 17.

But I can see Ainge taking both Gordon and Kyle Anderson at 17, so maybe he will just sit back.

If Ainge isn't wedded to the idea of Gordon or Smart at 6, he could pick up a solid asset or two by trading back to 9 or 10. Charlotte at 9 has the 24th pick to trade, and Philly at 10 has the 32nd and 39th picks, basically borderline first rounders.

I wouldn't be shocked if Ainge went Gordon and then a guy like Anderson, Saric or Kristaps at 17. I think all those guys have position versatility and we should be selecting who we think is best rather than going after position fit, I think we are too far away from contending to worry about position.

I think if we sit and wait, one of Saric, KP, or Nurkic will be there, but maybe i'm an optimist.

[footey]

This is exactly the type of player I want with our 17th pick so I am on board.

It's actually exactly the type of player we would love to have at 6, if he was a year older and stronger.

I can see Danny trading back from 6 or trading up from 17, although he might just sit tight at 17 and take Kyle Anderson if Porzingis is gone by then.

Kyle Anderson is a much bigger risk, IMO. I might opt for Warren instead.

[Celtics4ever]

professional ball, not interscholastic, "amateur" competition.

That is why you have dominated the Olympics for years, no?   Our fringe players go to these leagues and do quite well.  If a guy can't make it in the NBA there is always Europe/Turkey/Israel/Italy.  When guys wash up in the NBA they can play a few more years abroad.

The D in these leagues is pathetic.  Guys can shoot well and they do an excellent job teaching shooting.  Where as AAU ball has killed our shooting.   However, the competition is not as good as the NBA or most good NCAA teams.     

[footey]

@NorthernLighting

Are you this guy's agent/family/close friend/relative? I have honestly never seen anyone go as hard and petition as hard as you have for ANY player....

just saying....

The name of this thread by OP is not "Draft Porzingis at 17!!!". It invites criticism by being negative about him.  Guys like NL and me really dig this guy, based on available video reports and the reports that Ainge is keen on him. I have great confidence in Ainge's ability to properly assess him, and if, at the end of the day he declines, I will support that.  Likewise, if he takes him, I would be thrilled.  The video of Pau Gasol as a youngster inspires a lot of comparison with this kid (THanks for that, NL).

[nickagneta]

If this is the direction we are going I would rather go with Vonleh at #6 than this kid at #17. I think there's just too many good wing prospects to go after in the 17 range that are going to be at least solid starter potential in the NBA. I also am scared to death of large Euros as their success rate in the NBA compared to their pre draft hype is awful. They also, except for the Gasol brothers, all seem to suck on defense.

I also think this kid may be suffering from the same disease that Clint Capella and Joseph Nurkic was suffering from earlier this draft season, the unknown foreign player hype that pushes them up the mock draft boards for a while until they then fall back down the mock draft boards or fall down into the second round of the real draft because teams view them as draft and stashes and that's easier to do with 2nd rounders.

[mmmmm]

Every big man he plays against are grown men, unlike the NCAA where most centers are 6'9-6'10 and nowhere near as skilled as european pros.

Centers among the "european pros" are often not taller than 6'9-6'10.

Folks should also realize that this is professional ball, not interscholastic, "amateur" competition.  Some of Porzingis teammates and competitors have been playing professional ball for several years.   And like most pro leagues it is dominated by the veterans.  It's not a one-and-done culture dominated by hot-shot freshman stars.   You'll find far more guys who have physically filled out with muscle mass in the ACB than you will in the NCAA.

Just because it is "professional" doesn't mean much. Pro sports are considerably less of a "thing" in Europe, for lack of a better term. And in many cases, those leagues are dominated by mediocre, athletically challenged players, who have been around for a long while (and have thus become veterans).

Actually, it does mean something.  It means it is a job.  It is a means of getting paid today.  It isn't something you do while pretending to also be a student.  It means guys are older and have been playing longer and often on the same team longer than the corresponding NCAA 'student/athlete'.

The vast majority of NCAA players will never, EVER sniff NBA Summer League, let alone an NBA roster spot.

The NCAA-produced players that WILL be drafted played predominantly against those guys.   Guys who won't make it in the NBA and of those who actually stay in basketball, many are just the younger versions of players who end up playing international ball.

Yeah, that sounds like it is so much more competitive than the ACB. 

[nickagneta]

To be 100% fair, most players in the ACB couldn't sniff an NBA Summer League team either.

[NorthernLightning]

If this is the direction we are going I would rather go with Vonleh at #6 than this kid at #17. I think there's just too many good wing prospects to go after in the 17 range that are going to be at least solid starter potential in the NBA. I also am scared to death of large Euros as their success rate in the NBA compared to their pre draft hype is awful. They also, except for the Gasol brothers, all seem to suck on defense.

I also think this kid may be suffering from the same disease that Clint Capella and Joseph Nurkic was suffering from earlier this draft season, the unknown foreign player hype that pushes them up the mock draft boards for a while until they then fall back down the mock draft boards or fall down into the second round of the real draft because teams view them as draft and stashes and that's easier to do with 2nd rounders.

Vonleh has poor court awareness and is always slow coming over from the helpside. If Vonleh was quicker on his feet and better instincts for helpside defense, I would agree with you.

But I wouldn't be mad with Vonleh at 6.