Why the celtics should not draft Kristaps Porzingis at 17#

[kozlodoev]

The vast majority of NCAA players will never, EVER sniff NBA Summer League, let alone an NBA roster spot.

The NCAA-produced players that WILL be drafted played predominantly against those guys.   Guys who won't make it in the NBA and of those who actually stay in basketball, many are just the younger versions of players who end up playing international ball.

Not really. Some of the players are those guys. A lot of the remaining players are local product that may have tons of experience, but is inferior both in terms of athleticism and basketball ability. Sure, some of the top teams and top leagues in Europe are decent. But once you move past the top level to inferior regional and national competitions, it's filler that won't be able to hold their own in an "amatheur, 'interscholastic'" competition.

The video of Pau Gasol as a youngster inspires a lot of comparison with this kid (THanks for that, NL).

Not sure what's there to be so "inspired" about. Gasol came from Barcelona as a considerably more established player, having averaged 25 mpg in 35 games, and fresh off of an 18ppg effort  in 6 Euroleague games.

Yeah, that sounds like it is so much more competitive than the ACB. 

In fact, D1 NCAA basketball is fairly competitive, nationally televised, and has a ton of money involved in it. The fact that those players aren't formally compensated for their services doesn't mean as much as people think it does.

[NorthernLightning]

Spain usually medals in the Olympics, so their "filler" is pretty good.

[D.o.s.]

For what it's worth, Porzingis played this year in the Spanish ACB, which is generally considered second only to the NBA in level of competition.

[edited for space]

None of that guarantees that Porzingis is worth drafting at#17 or not.    But I think to suggest that he hasn't faced a similar or even tougher level of competition than the NCAA is a bit off.

I'd also note that I believe that Danny has scouted Porzingis in person so if he DID decide to take him, it would not be a blind pick.   He'll have done his homework.

This is an important point to bring up right now, I think.

[kozlodoev]

Spain usually medals in the Olympics, so their "filler" is pretty good.

Let me highlight the important parts for you, because it seems that reading comprehension is an issue here:

But once you move past the top level to inferior regional and national competitions, it's filler that won't be able to hold their own in an "amatheur, 'interscholastic'" competition.

Top level = the major national championships + the Euroleague.

[Celtics4ever]

reports that Ainge is keen on him. I have great confidence in Ainge's ability to properly assess him,

When has Ainge ever shown his hand about who he likes think about it....

He is trying to get some other team to bite on this dud and no I did not forget the "e".

[NorthernLightning]

Porzingis plays in the top league in Spain. Spain has a great developmental program and produces a steady stream of NBA players, and steadily medals in the Olympics.

Your comment was about Europe in general, but your generalities mean less when the player and league we're talking about are in Spain, specifically.

[CM0]

Does Porzingis have an extremely high ceiling? Yes.
Does Porzingis have an extremely high bust potential? Yes.

He's right there with LaVine as far as boom or bust prospects go. Frankly, I think Porzingis's range should be 25-32. Picking him at #17 would have to be considered a reach with safer picks like Warren, James Young, P.J. Hairston, Tyler Ennis and Elfrid Payton in play. Even Kyle Anderson is a safer pick than Porzingis, and his ceiling isn't exactly low.

[footey]

If this is the direction we are going I would rather go with Vonleh at #6 than this kid at #17. I think there's just too many good wing prospects to go after in the 17 range that are going to be at least solid starter potential in the NBA. I also am scared to death of large Euros as their success rate in the NBA compared to their pre draft hype is awful. They also, except for the Gasol brothers, all seem to suck on defense.

I also think this kid may be suffering from the same disease that Clint Capella and Joseph Nurkic was suffering from earlier this draft season, the unknown foreign player hype that pushes them up the mock draft boards for a while until they then fall back down the mock draft boards or fall down into the second round of the real draft because teams view them as draft and stashes and that's easier to do with 2nd rounders.

Vonleh has poor court awareness and is always slow coming over from the helpside. If Vonleh was quicker on his feet and better instincts for helpside defense, I would agree with you.

But I wouldn't be mad with Vonleh at 6.

I feel the risk of Vonleh busting is greater than of Porzingis, especially when you factor in where you would have to draft him.

[Celtics18]

Spain usually medals in the Olympics, so their "filler" is pretty good.

Let me highlight the important parts for you, because it seems that reading comprehension is an issue here:

But once you move past the top level to inferior regional and national competitions, it's filler that won't be able to hold their own in an "amatheur, 'interscholastic'" competition.

Top level = the major national championships + the Euroleague.

We are talking about a nineteen year old who played well in both the Spanish ACB and the Euroleague.  I don't see why you keep up bringing up lesser leagues in this discussion. 

[mmmmm]

Yeah, that sounds like it is so much more competitive than the ACB. 

In fact, D1 NCAA basketball is fairly competitive, nationally televised, and has a ton of money involved in it. The fact that those players aren't formally compensated for their services doesn't mean as much as people think it does.

Yeah, that's why we still send nothing but NCAA "amateur" players to the Olympics to compete with those international players.  No need at all to use more seasoned, professional NBA players to dispatch those inferior foreigners...  Oh wait ...

You got the bold part right, at least.

Seriously, your view sounds about right ... up until the early 1980s.

Internationally-sourced players are a bigger and bigger part of the NBA.  Last year, a record 1 in 5 NBA players on opening day rosters were sourced from international territories.  Only a tiny handful (2 or 3) teams in the NBA did NOT have an international player.   The Spurs, of all teams, lead the way with the most such players on their roster. 

Contrary to the apparent opinion of several on this blog, the "bust" rate of international players who have been drafted in recent years is not really much different from that of NCAA-sourced players.   For lottery picks, the bust rate is about 1 in 3.  That increases as you go deeper into the draft for both NCAA and Internationals.

Again, none of this means that Kristaps is necessarily worth taking at #17.  But your blanket dismissal of international competition as somehow being vastly inferior to the NCAA has no foundation.   There is no real basis for that assertion.   Last I checked, we haven't had a lot of competition going on between Spanish ACB teams and NCAA Division 1 teams.   College-only US teams that compete in international competitions no longer dominate outright like they did decades ago.   Obviously, some international leagues are stronger than others.  Just as some college hoop programs are stronger than others.

It is perfectly reasonable to be more confident in assigning draft value to players that you know more about.  Uncertainty is risk and that is negative value.    So to say you know more about domestic players and thus are more comfortable ranking them higher is perfectly fair.

One hopes that if an NBA GM does decide to scout an international player, though, that he will put in just as much due diligence into that selection as he would for an NCAA player and not foolishly dismiss them due to out-of-date prejudices.

[Celtics4ever]

Spain has a great developmental program and produces a steady stream of NBA players, and steadily medals in the Olympics.

Wrong, they have produced 13 players in the NBA in their entire history. Two of which were foreign born.  I really think they should count Wally either.   He may have been born there but other than that it is a stretch.   His dad, Walt,  was playing over there  and his father was born in Hamburg, Germany but is known as an American player.  Steady stream means a lot not thirteen.

http://www.basketball-reference.com/friv/birthplaces.cgi?country=ES

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_foreign_NBA_players

Canada has a lot, Spain not so much even France has produced more.

Some of the best foreign players like Duncan and Hakeem learned to play here not overseas.

Contrary to the apparent opinion of several on this blog, the "bust" rate of international players who have been drafted in recent years is not really much different from that of NCAA-sourced players.   For lottery picks, the bust rate is about 1 in 3.  That increases as you go deeper into the draft for both NCAA and Internationals.

I found some data that contradicts this opinion.   It says that 58% of foreign players are busts.  49% of college players are busts and .32% of high school players were  busts.  10% is a huge difference in my book.


http://sportsnstats.com/nba-draft-euro-bust/

[nickagneta]

NCAA players were stopped from going to international competitions not because they couldn't compete with professionals 10 years older than them but because they couldn't beat them every single time for the gold.

They could play competitively with those players. They just couldn't beat them for gold every time anymore. Big difference IMHO. America wanted to win gold in their game. So then we started sending our professionals and then the international community stopped being able to not only beat America but even compete with America once again, for the most part.

[footey]

The video of Pau Gasol as a youngster inspires a lot of comparison with this kid (THanks for that, NL).

Not sure what's there to be so "inspired" about. Gasol came from Barcelona as a considerably more established player, having averaged 25 mpg in 35 games, and fresh off of an 18ppg effort  in 6 Euroleague games.

What were Pau Gasol's statistics in professional basketball when he was 18?  I doubt any better than this young man.  Let's look it up and find out.  By "inspired", I was trying to make the point (which flew right over your head, apparently) that video of Gasol as a young, skinny, 7 footer had a lot of similarity to that of KP, in terms of fluidity, coordination, presence.  He has done nothing to deserve comparison to Gasol beyond that. This kid is incredibly young, so of course you can't possibly accurately predict the level of player he will mature into. But that is what makes this discussion, this debate, so much fun. 

[Celtics4ever]

The  some biggest busts I can think of in recent years are foreign.

Hasheem Thabeet  #2 BUST
Michael Olowokandi  #1 BUST
Darko Milicic #2 BUST

At least Sam Bowie and Greg Oden have injuries to blame their bust status on.  That is not to say their are not some great foreign players.   But these guys were mega busts all picked high and really fringe players in the NBA.

I would rather have the Kaminsky  out of WIS than Porzingas.

[mmmmm]

NCAA players were stopped from going to international competitions not because they couldn't compete with professionals 10 years older than them but because they couldn't beat them every single time for the gold.

They could play competitively with those players. They just couldn't beat them for gold every time anymore. Big difference IMHO. America wanted to win gold in their game. So then we started sending our professionals and then the international community stopped being able to not only beat America but even compete with America once again, for the most part.

This seems like a straw man.  No one is contending that NCAA school boys can't play competitively in international competitions.

What I am contesting is the opposite - the assertion by some that international leagues are overall somehow vastly inferior in competition levels to the NCAA.

I'm not going to assert that they are better (yet) than the NCAA.  But the gap has clearly closed tremendously since the days when a handful of US schoolboys could train together for a few weeks and go out and dominate the Olympics.