If Kelly Olynyk was in the 2014 Draft, Where would you take him?

[fandrew]

I don't really care where he would go b/c I'm happy we snagged him when we did.

No, he's right, it's unlikely Kelly will EVER shoot over 50%FG and 44% from 3 like he did the last few months, no one shoots that well. Dirk shot 50/40 and that's darn near unheard of for any player much less 7ft ones.

To think he can't get better isn't something I can agree with though. If he just shoots his entire season averages but gets stronger and defends better he can be a very solid player... as with most guys, 23 or not, they tend to improve their games after their rookie season if they put in the work. They don't necessarily play differently, they just get used to the NBA and they figure out what part of their game is lacking and they work with pros to get better, they find out what works for them.

You say he is 23 as if that means he doesn't have room to grow. If that's the case, how often do 23y.o. win championships? With age comes maturity, all the work you put in starts to pay off, and you gain the experience.

I don't see how a guy as smart as KO and as hard a worker as he is doesn't find a way to improve his play from his rookie season. It's just unrealistic if you're only basing it off of his shooting b/c like I said, no one shoots like that at 7ft!

Oh, I almost forgot, the whole idea that if he is defended he won't shoot as well... how likely is KO going to be the #1-2 option? We should have multiple players out there who can get points and take attention from KO, much like players like AB. Anyway, you can say that about ANY player who isn't brought in to be a superstar or potential superstar (like Melo or top picks). Just b/c they aren't one of the defenses top priorities it doesn't mean that they won't be able to score if they were one of them.

I think KO is underrated offensively but I don't won't to go through why I think he is b/c I'd have to make an entire thread, the post would be extra long. Everyone concedes on his defense though, he isn't good (doesn't mean he can't improve).

I pretty much agree with everything in this post. Here is my add to the KO take. Instead of coming into the NBA and taking 3 years to develop like Bradley did or any other number of prospects, he took care of most of that in college. His skill set was NBA ready, his offensive awareness and passing skills were NBA ready, and his maturity was NBA ready. If he was super athletic he would have been the number one pick last year regardless of his age or defensive questions.

Next year he will turn 24. He will have had a full and healthy offseason to work on his body and on his defensive game, which showed gradual improvement in the second half of the season. The nerves or pace of the game is no longer an issue for him, and his confidence in his shot and his ability to contribute will probably pick up from where it left off. If he does not shoot 38% from 3pt and 48% FG, I will be surprised.

Will he be a superstar in this league? I really doubt it. But who am I to say that he won't have an incredible career? Larry Bird came into the league at 23, and he had a spectacular career. I know I just compared KO with Bird, but the point was to show that age and athleticism is not always the benchmark for success. Sometimes it is simply the Will to succeed, to win, and to work hard enough to make that happen.

Next year I completely expect KO to average 15/8/4 off the bench with decent defense. He is just too skilled and too much of a hard worker not to.

[D.o.s.]

One problem with that theory is that Olynyk clearly wasn't NBA ready until after the All Star Break. If you want a recent four year player that was, try Damian Lillard.

The thing about four-year players is that they're not typically expected to become that much better than they already are.

[slamtheking]

I think the comparison's to Payne in terms of talent level are fair.  probably would end up drafted 20-23 range

[fandrew]

One problem with that theory is that Olynyk clearly wasn't NBA ready until after the All Star Break. If you want a recent four year player that was, try Damian Lillard.

The thing about four-year players is that they're not typically expected to become that much better than they already are.

My point was that KO had many elements to his game that were NBA ready. His biggest issue was confidence, and mentally playing at the NBA speed. And that was an adjustment that he was able to make by the All Star Game (an adustment he may have made sooner had he not missed so many games with his injury). If anything, I think his ability to adjust mid-season strengthens my theory that he is able to get better.

Right now, KO is in a position where his entire life revolves around playing basketball. He is not in school, and he has no other major time consuming commitments that he has no control over (well, that I know of.) He has area's that he actually can improve on, that can elevate the parts of his game that are already close to or at his ceiling such as his shooting touch and his ball handling and passing.

That is why people keep saying that working on his body and conditioning is so big; he has the tools to be a very good offensive player, if he improved his body and working on defense in the offseason, he will be a well developed complete player. He won't need to develop much more, but simply work to improve on new little things every year like any good player does regardless of age.

The problem with 4 year players is when those guys are either still too raw, but too old for them to really ever develop their talent, or they are as developed as they are going to get, but they simply do not have the talent or the skill to succeed with what they have at the next level. KO came out of college with plenty of talent that was well developed. Did he still have some areas to work on? Sure. But like I said many veteran players have areas of their game that they work on in the offseason, and many continue to work on their conditioning to prepare for the next season.

[fandrew]

I will say this; regardless of what I see in KO now, if I only had his college stats, and he was coming out as a 4 year player this year, I think he would be picked in the 17-20 range. There are so many young athletic guys in this draft with great upside, I have a hard time seeing teams passing that up. It is why I can see McDermott and Stauskas dropping a couple of spots in the draft, even though they will probably have solid careers.

[MBunge]

I will say this; regardless of what I see in KO now, if I only had his college stats, and he was coming out as a 4 year player this year, I think he would be picked in the 17-20 range.

That's probably about right and highlights the hit/miss nature of the draft.  Having seen what KO can do over a whole season, good and bad, I'd almost guarantee that he'll turn out to be better than at least one of the top 10 picks this year.

Mike

[NorthernLightning]

One problem with that theory is that Olynyk clearly wasn't NBA ready until after the All Star Break. If you want a recent four year player that was, try Damian Lillard.

The thing about four-year players is that they're not typically expected to become that much better than they already are.

Big men often take longer to physically develop than guards, and they improve more as they finish developing. This tendency is part of why the rookie of the year award is usually won by smaller players.

Nerlens Noel is going to be much better at age 24 than he is now.

Olynyk is going to be significantly stronger this season than he was last season, and that shouldn't surprise you or raise your skepticism.

Olynyk's skill set was incredible coming out of college, it was very much NBA ready. Guys whose games rely on a high skill level are more vulnerable to rookie struggles like Olynyk had at first. We see this all the time, especially with shooting guards whose game relies not upon great athleticism but high skill and finesse.

Players who rely predominantly on athleticism are more immune to a bad rookie adjustment period, because their game doesn't require the confidence that finesse players must gain to make an impact.

Without confidence, a finesse game falls apart much more so than athleticism. A guy like Mason Plumlee's game doesn't rely on high confidence to be effective, so he was more immune to a rookie adjustment period.

Look at the other high skill/finesse players in that draft. McLemore, KCP, and CJ McCullum all didn't have great rookie years, especially at first, because that's what often happens with finesse players.

Olynyk saw his confidence surge more than those guys later in the season, but those guys will come along.

[mmmmm]

Its possible he might be a second round pick in this draft. Let's remember, we have to assume another year at Gonzaga and him coming out as a 5 year senior with little to no upside and needing to prove he could contribute right away. Guys like that with unproven professional games tend to slide and go late first and into the second round.

I am still not 100% convinced he didn't overachieve his last two months in Boston because, well, someone has to put up numbers on a bad team. Someone has to shoot. And let's be real. Teams weren't really guarding the Celtics with a lot of enthusiasm towards the end of the year because they knew they could simply outscore the Celtics to beat them because the Celtics offense was pathetic. KO's last couple months might just be the best basketball he ever plays in the NBA.

Not likely, not likely at all.

Want to explain why? I explained my theory about why he he might have had a successful last couple months. Players regress all the time. Let's take a look at some other 2nd team All-Rookie selections:

Tyler Zeller
Michael Kidd-Gilchrist
Marshon Brooks
Wesley Johnson
Jonny Flynn
Jamario Moon
Adam Morrison
Luther Head
........ and so on.

I mean I know he showed more post All Star Game as compared to pre ASG but what makes it so likely that KO hasn't played his best basketball of his career already? I don't think my statement to be a surety but neither do I think its a given that he gets better overall as a player to what we saw as a whole last year.

He just might be a 20 MPG, 9 PPG, 5 RPG, 1 APG, average shooting role player for the rest of his career and never have a year as good as his last two months of the 2013-14 season(which have him more as a 13 PPG, 7RPG, 2 ASP very good shooting role playing semi-starter. I mean, let's face it he is not 19 or 20 but 23. I think its fair to say his upside is limited.

I'd just like to highlight Marshon Brooks in this post because after he spent half of a season posting good stats on a bad team people were on here BLASTING Danny Ainge bc we traded away Brooks.

Theres just something to be said about stats that were put in the 2nd half of a season on a terrible team playing against defenders who would 'probably put more effort into contesting that shot if this game meant something.'

Pretty fundamental differences between Brooks and Olynyk, though.

Danny specifically _passed_ on Brooks, trading him to move down for JJJ (who was a "bust", but did at least net Courtney Lee before all was said and done.  Watcha expect for a #27 pick?).

Danny specifically traded UP to pick Olynyk.

Danny clearly saw fundamental differences in the two players (pertaining to their NBA prospects) coming out of college.

Fundamentally, both are 'offense-oriented' players (scorers), but they way they score is very telling.   Brooks was able to dominate in college by being a better athlete than 90% of the athletes in college.  He is not able to score efficiently in the NBA with the same 'Kobe-light' techniques because he just doesn't have the same athletic edge in the NBA.   Without Kobe's ability to draw contact fouls at a very high rate, Brook's is barely able to maintain 1.1 points per shot (Kobe has been at around 1.3 points per shot since he entered the NBA).

Olynyk's scoring model is based around a much more efficient set of skills.  He's a far better outside shooter and in the NBA is better equipped to be an inside scorer.   His basic shot selection is more efficient and less reliant on getting to the foul line (though he was not bad at getting there).   He managed a very healthy ratio of 1.21 points per shot his rookie year.   Plus he has proven to be a more-than-adequate rebounder.

'Not going to assert that Olynyk will or will not be a 'star' from this point.  I find it silly for folks to assert definitively one way or another.   I think it is likely he will continue to show improvement in his overall game, though because unlike several of the players listed above, Olynyk's style of game is sound enough and efficient enough to likely continue to earn him minutes, whether on this team or another.

[greg683x]

Its possible he might be a second round pick in this draft. Let's remember, we have to assume another year at Gonzaga and him coming out as a 5 year senior with little to no upside and needing to prove he could contribute right away. Guys like that with unproven professional games tend to slide and go late first and into the second round.

I am still not 100% convinced he didn't overachieve his last two months in Boston because, well, someone has to put up numbers on a bad team. Someone has to shoot. And let's be real. Teams weren't really guarding the Celtics with a lot of enthusiasm towards the end of the year because they knew they could simply outscore the Celtics to beat them because the Celtics offense was pathetic. KO's last couple months might just be the best basketball he ever plays in the NBA.

Not likely, not likely at all.

Want to explain why? I explained my theory about why he he might have had a successful last couple months. Players regress all the time. Let's take a look at some other 2nd team All-Rookie selections:

Tyler Zeller
Michael Kidd-Gilchrist
Marshon Brooks
Wesley Johnson
Jonny Flynn
Jamario Moon
Adam Morrison
Luther Head
........ and so on.

I mean I know he showed more post All Star Game as compared to pre ASG but what makes it so likely that KO hasn't played his best basketball of his career already? I don't think my statement to be a surety but neither do I think its a given that he gets better overall as a player to what we saw as a whole last year.

He just might be a 20 MPG, 9 PPG, 5 RPG, 1 APG, average shooting role player for the rest of his career and never have a year as good as his last two months of the 2013-14 season(which have him more as a 13 PPG, 7RPG, 2 ASP very good shooting role playing semi-starter. I mean, let's face it he is not 19 or 20 but 23. I think its fair to say his upside is limited.

I'd just like to highlight Marshon Brooks in this post because after he spent half of a season posting good stats on a bad team people were on here BLASTING Danny Ainge bc we traded away Brooks.

Theres just something to be said about stats that were put in the 2nd half of a season on a terrible team playing against defenders who would 'probably put more effort into contesting that shot if this game meant something.'

Pretty fundamental differences between Brooks and Olynyk, though.

Danny specifically _passed_ on Brooks, trading him to move down for JJJ (who was a "bust", but did at least net Courtney Lee before all was said and done.  Watcha expect for a #27 pick?).

Danny specifically traded UP to pick Olynyk.

Danny clearly saw fundamental differences in the two players (pertaining to their NBA prospects) coming out of college.

Fundamentally, both are 'offense-oriented' players (scorers), but they way they score is very telling.   Brooks was able to dominate in college by being a better athlete than 90% of the athletes in college.  He is not able to score efficiently in the NBA with the same 'Kobe-light' techniques because he just doesn't have the same athletic edge in the NBA.   Without Kobe's ability to draw contact fouls at a very high rate, Brook's is barely able to maintain 1.1 points per shot (Kobe has been at around 1.3 points per shot since he entered the NBA).

Olynyk's scoring model is based around a much more efficient set of skills.  He's a far better outside shooter and in the NBA is better equipped to be an inside scorer.   His basic shot selection is more efficient and less reliant on getting to the foul line (though he was not bad at getting there).   He managed a very healthy ratio of 1.21 points per shot his rookie year.   Plus he has proven to be a more-than-adequate rebounder.

'Not going to assert that Olynyk will or will not be a 'star' from this point.  I find it silly for folks to assert definitively one way or another.   I think it is likely he will continue to show improvement in his overall game, though because unlike several of the players listed above, Olynyk's style of game is sound enough and efficient enough to likely continue to earn him minutes, whether on this team or another.

I agree with you.  I think you missed the point of me highlighting Marshon Brooks in this argument though.  I brought him up because he was a rookie who played great basketball for around half of a season and people were having these knee jerk reactions to it.  Similar to whats going on in this thread.    Dismissing KO's play this year and saying I dont care hes gonna have an awful career, I agree is silly.  But so is crowning this guy as some sort of franchise player after only half of a season, it's completely ridiculous.  Pardon me if I dont change my opinions of the guy after a half of a season, especially if he showed no improvement on the defensive end.  If wanting a larger sample size makes me a hater or a sad individual, then so be it.

[BballTim]

He went 13th in a draft with considerably less talent.  He'd be a year older and would have exhausted his full college eligibility.  I think he'd be a late first rounder at best, along the lines of Napier.

Mistakes were made. Why do you think so many GMs called him the steal of the draft in that NBA poll after summer league? What does steal of the draft mean to you?

You mean before he even played a game.  Wouldn't the rookie of the year who was drafted 11th be considered a bigger steal than the guy who went 13th?  Or maybe the 1st team all rookie that was drafted 24th?  Or how about the 1st team all rookie that went 22nd?  Or maybe the fellow 2nd team all rookies that went 21st and 15th?

Olynyk had a nice rookie season, but he was the 13th pick in a historically weak draft (both beforehand and after their respective rookie seasons).  Olynyk would be lucky to be a first round pick in this draft.  Even if you counted his rookie season, I don't think he goes in the lottery in this draft.  Just the sad reality with Olynyk.

  Olynyk's not a superstar but he's a pretty skilled 7 footer.While he might drop a little in the draft but dropping into the second round is just silly.

Unathletic, five year college player.  Not that silly.  Even Payne is only projected as a mid-late first round pick at best, and he's an athletic specimen.

  That's just nonsense. GMs aren't going to look at Olynyk and just dismiss him as an "Unathletic, five year college player". Just like they didn't look at him last year and dismiss him as an "Unathletic, four year college player". They'll evaluate him just like they did last year, and teams will be fairly high on him, just like they were last year. Again, it's possible he'll slip a little, but from 11th to in the 30s is ridiculous.

[BballTim]

Adrien Payne is not an athletic specimen.

He is a lot more athletic than Olynyk though, which is sort of the point.  Payne is also a much better outside shooter than Olynyk ever was.  Payne is projected in the 20's by virtually everyone.  I think Payne would go ahead of Olynyk if Kelly was in this draft, so that makes Olynyk at best a player taken in the 20's.

  I checked out a couple of draft evaluations of Payne and they seemed somewhat worse than the evaluations of Olynyk from the year before. They seem to either say or intimate low BBIQ. If Payne's projected in the 20s it's fairly unlikely he's seen as a better prospect than Olynyk was.