Its possible he might be a second round pick in this draft. Let's remember, we have to assume another year at Gonzaga and him coming out as a 5 year senior with little to no upside and needing to prove he could contribute right away. Guys like that with unproven professional games tend to slide and go late first and into the second round.
I am still not 100% convinced he didn't overachieve his last two months in Boston because, well, someone has to put up numbers on a bad team. Someone has to shoot. And let's be real. Teams weren't really guarding the Celtics with a lot of enthusiasm towards the end of the year because they knew they could simply outscore the Celtics to beat them because the Celtics offense was pathetic. KO's last couple months might just be the best basketball he ever plays in the NBA.
Not likely, not likely at all.
Want to explain why? I explained my theory about why he he might have had a successful last couple months. Players regress all the time. Let's take a look at some other 2nd team All-Rookie selections:
Tyler Zeller
Michael Kidd-Gilchrist
Marshon Brooks
Wesley Johnson
Jonny Flynn
Jamario Moon
Adam Morrison
Luther Head
........ and so on.
I mean I know he showed more post All Star Game as compared to pre ASG but what makes it so likely that KO hasn't played his best basketball of his career already? I don't think my statement to be a surety but neither do I think its a given that he gets better overall as a player to what we saw as a whole last year.
He just might be a 20 MPG, 9 PPG, 5 RPG, 1 APG, average shooting role player for the rest of his career and never have a year as good as his last two months of the 2013-14 season(which have him more as a 13 PPG, 7RPG, 2 ASP very good shooting role playing semi-starter. I mean, let's face it he is not 19 or 20 but 23. I think its fair to say his upside is limited.
Of course anything can happen, but here are a few reasons that the last two months of his rookie season may not turn out to be the best basketball of his career:
1. Past history is the best predictor of future performance. Regardless of the many examples of players who regress after Year 1, most players perform about as well as their previous year unless they are injured or old. And, most players make progress from 23 to 28 especially when their performance as a 23yo was not a one-game/one-week anomoly. Yes, there are plenty of exceptions.
2. Between Year 1 and Year 2 is a good time for strengthening/conditioning. This is something that KO needs desperately and could make a huge difference in his performance in the NBA. If he comes back stonger, we'll see many more opportunities for KO to score inside. Playing minutes alongside Sully or Love will help as well.
3. As a 3rd offensive option on a decent team, KO should get good looks. You are probably correct that teams did not exert defensive intensity against this weak C's team resulting in KO capitaizing. But if the C's add some offensive firepower and KO is a 3rd/4th option, his scoring opportunities will be there. Chris Bosh is a better offensive player than KO will probably ever be, but it's hard to deny that he benefits both inside and outside from having LBJ, DW and RA on the floor. I definitely think KO can be a 13/7 guy on good team.
Topic: If Kelly Olynyk was in the 2014 Draft, Where would you take him? (Read 19811 times)