If Kelly Olynyk was in the 2014 Draft, Where would you take him?

[ImShakHeIsShaq]

I don't really care where he would go b/c I'm happy we snagged him when we did.

No, he's right, it's unlikely Kelly will EVER shoot over 50%FG and 44% from 3 like he did the last few months, no one shoots that well. Dirk shot 50/40 and that's darn near unheard of for any player much less 7ft ones.

To think he can't get better isn't something I can agree with though. If he just shoots his entire season averages but gets stronger and defends better he can be a very solid player... as with most guys, 23 or not, they tend to improve their games after their rookie season if they put in the work. They don't necessarily play differently, they just get used to the NBA and they figure out what part of their game is lacking and they work with pros to get better, they find out what works for them.

You say he is 23 as if that means he doesn't have room to grow. If that's the case, how often do 23y.o. win championships? With age comes maturity, all the work you put in starts to pay off, and you gain the experience.

I don't see how a guy as smart as KO and as hard a worker as he is doesn't find a way to improve his play from his rookie season. It's just unrealistic if you're only basing it off of his shooting b/c like I said, no one shoots like that at 7ft!

Oh, I almost forgot, the whole idea that if he is defended he won't shoot as well... how likely is KO going to be the #1-2 option? We should have multiple players out there who can get points and take attention from KO, much like players like AB. Anyway, you can say that about ANY player who isn't brought in to be a superstar or potential superstar (like Melo or top picks). Just b/c they aren't one of the defenses top priorities it doesn't mean that they won't be able to score if they were one of them.

I think KO is underrated offensively but I don't won't to go through why I think he is b/c I'd have to make an entire thread, the post would be extra long. Everyone concedes on his defense though, he isn't good (doesn't mean he can't improve).

[jambr380]

The Celtics have their second pick at #17?  I predict he'd go 17th in this draft, then.

I agree with this -  the Cs traded up to get him. Obviously there was an interest there.

Also, I don't think the OP meant that he would literally be a year older. I have to assume he meant, given all conditions (age, skill, stats) of his 2012-13 season at Gonzaga, where would he go this year?

[MBunge]

Its possible he might be a second round pick in this draft. Let's remember, we have to assume another year at Gonzaga and him coming out as a 5 year senior with little to no upside and needing to prove he could contribute right away. Guys like that with unproven professional games tend to slide and go late first and into the second round.

I am still not 100% convinced he didn't overachieve his last two months in Boston because, well, someone has to put up numbers on a bad team. Someone has to shoot. And let's be real. Teams weren't really guarding the Celtics with a lot of enthusiasm towards the end of the year because they knew they could simply outscore the Celtics to beat them because the Celtics offense was pathetic. KO's last couple months might just be the best basketball he ever plays in the NBA.

Not likely, not likely at all.

Want to explain why?

Because unless he's a dumb, lazy headcase, KO is going to improve his body and his understanding of how to play in the NBA.  He should absolutely be playing better basketball when he's 28 and still in his physical prime.  He may not put up the same numbers but unless you think he's a bust an will be out of the league after his rookie contract, he's going to play better.  Almost every guy who sticks in the league is playing better ball at 28 than 23, even if they're playing a more limited role because everybody figured out they're not good enough to be a starter on a good team.

Mike

[NorthernLightning]

The hate for Olynyk is strong here. Reaching for worst case scenarios of how he might not ever improve, as if confidence and experience weren't the two biggest things limiting his performance last year, besides strength.

As if 23 year old bigs don't keep getting stronger. As if Olynyk didn't lead the NCAA in PER his last year. As if NBA GMs didn't vote him most likely to be the steal of the draft. What do they know? Because bust.

Kelly was already looking like a poor man's or an old man's Dirk Nowitski toward the end of the year, and that's what he's going to round out to be, a poor man's or old man's Nowitzki.

Sorry to break it to you guys, I know you hated the pick and would rather find reasons to keep hating him than to support him and be happy to have him.

Yawn, just another 7 footer with 3 point range and PG skills.

Cripes, the very first game Olynyk played over 20 minutes, November freaking 3rd, he scored 15 points, 8 rebounds, and 2 steals, and some of you guys are trying to convince yourselves that he might be a career 9 and 5 player?

[nickagneta]

The hate for Olynyk is strong here. Reaching for worst case scenarios of how he might not ever improve, as if confidence and experience weren't the two biggest things limiting his performance last year, besides strength.

As if 23 year old bigs don't keep getting stronger. As if Olynyk didn't lead the NCAA in PER his last year. As if NBA GMs didn't vote him most likely to be the steal of the draft. What do they know? Because bust.

Kelly was already looking like a poor man's or an old man's Dirk Nowitski toward the end of the year, and that's what he's going to round out to be, a poor man's or old man's Nowitzki.

Sorry to break it to you guys, I know you hated the pick and would rather find reasons to keep hating him than to support him and be happy to have him.

Yawn, just another 7 footer with 3 point range and PG skills.

Cripes, the very first game Olynyk played over 20 minutes, November freaking 3rd, he scored 15 points, 8 rebounds, and 2 steals, and some of you guys are trying to convince yourselves that he might be a career 9 and 5 player?

Listen, I get all that and said I don't think its a surety Olynyk doesn't get any better, I only think there is enough evidence not to rule it out. Its the same way your ridiculous prediction of the "unstoppable" Kelly Olynyk scoring 18-22 PPG can't be ruled out.

[D.o.s.]

Cripes, the very first game Olynyk played over 20 minutes, November freaking 3rd, he scored 15 points, 8 rebounds, and 2 steals, and some of you guys are trying to convince yourselves that he might be a career 9 and 5 player?

Oh yeah, he's in some rarefied company there...
http://bkref.com/tiny/htSuc

[NorthernLightning]

How many 7 footers have KOs scoring moves, handles, passing, and mobility? KO's early season lowlights were almost entirely a matter of a lack of confidence while he adjusted to the league. This isn't like hoping Perk or Rondo develop a 3 point shot. All the skills are there with KO, and he'll go as far as his confidence takes him.

Expect a major jump in his game starting this preseason, compared to last preseason. Major jump. We already got a good look at it toward the end of the year.

But suit yourselves, you can just play the "hey, I'm just a fan" card after he averages over 15 points this year.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=d36nVUG67pA

[BballTim]

Its possible he might be a second round pick in this draft. Let's remember, we have to assume another year at Gonzaga and him coming out as a 5 year senior with little to no upside and needing to prove he could contribute right away. Guys like that with unproven professional games tend to slide and go late first and into the second round.

I am still not 100% convinced he didn't overachieve his last two months in Boston because, well, someone has to put up numbers on a bad team. Someone has to shoot. And let's be real. Teams weren't really guarding the Celtics with a lot of enthusiasm towards the end of the year because they knew they could simply outscore the Celtics to beat them because the Celtics offense was pathetic. KO's last couple months might just be the best basketball he ever plays in the NBA.

Not likely, not likely at all.

Want to explain why? I explained my theory about why he he might have had a successful last couple months. Players regress all the time.

  In a league with 400 or so players it's true that players regress all the time, but it's also true that most players don't regress. Olynyk might drop a few spots but it's pretty unlikely he'd end up out of the teens.

[doinky]

Late 2nd round. If he was lucky...









j/k  Probably #14-18.

[greg683x]

The hate for Olynyk is strong here. Reaching for worst case scenarios of how he might not ever improve, as if confidence and experience weren't the two biggest things limiting his performance last year, besides strength.

As if 23 year old bigs don't keep getting stronger. As if Olynyk didn't lead the NCAA in PER his last year. As if NBA GMs didn't vote him most likely to be the steal of the draft. What do they know? Because bust.

Kelly was already looking like a poor man's or an old man's Dirk Nowitski toward the end of the year, and that's what he's going to round out to be, a poor man's or old man's Nowitzki.

Sorry to break it to you guys, I know you hated the pick and would rather find reasons to keep hating him than to support him and be happy to have him.

Yawn, just another 7 footer with 3 point range and PG skills.

Cripes, the very first game Olynyk played over 20 minutes, November freaking 3rd, he scored 15 points, 8 rebounds, and 2 steals, and some of you guys are trying to convince yourselves that he might be a career 9 and 5 player?

Someone saying that it's very likely he wont improve or that his best games are behind might be a bit of an over statement, but your statements carry the same weight, just on the opposite end of the spectrum. 

Youre way over the top on your assessment of Kelly.  In this thread alone youve said he's a better player than Jabari Parker and is a poor mans Dirk Nowitzki.  I think most people would agree thats just as if not more ridiculous than saying Kelly may never put up the numbers he put up this year on a competitive team. 

He had a good half of a season on a bad team, it's very reasonable not to read too much into it and stick by your same opinions of the guy that you had at the beginning of the year.

[Moranis]

He went 13th in a draft with considerably less talent.  He'd be a year older and would have exhausted his full college eligibility.  I think he'd be a late first rounder at best, along the lines of Napier.

Mistakes were made. Why do you think so many GMs called him the steal of the draft in that NBA poll after summer league? What does steal of the draft mean to you?

You mean before he even played a game.  Wouldn't the rookie of the year who was drafted 11th be considered a bigger steal than the guy who went 13th?  Or maybe the 1st team all rookie that was drafted 24th?  Or how about the 1st team all rookie that went 22nd?  Or maybe the fellow 2nd team all rookies that went 21st and 15th?

Olynyk had a nice rookie season, but he was the 13th pick in a historically weak draft (both beforehand and after their respective rookie seasons).  Olynyk would be lucky to be a first round pick in this draft.  Even if you counted his rookie season, I don't think he goes in the lottery in this draft.  Just the sad reality with Olynyk. 

[NorthernLightning]

In this thread alone youve said he's a better player than Jabari Parker and is a poor mans Dirk Nowitzki.

He had a good half of a season on a bad team, it's very reasonable not to read too much into it and stick by your same opinions of the guy that you had at the beginning of the year.

He didn't show you anything that can't be chalked up to playing on a bad team? You can't picture him scoring 18 points a game and being a poor man's Dirk in doing so?

Did you not notice that he was playing tentative the first half of the year? Passing up his shot, being hesitant when he did shoot it, and refusing to use his dribble drive game.

After the All Star break all those things changed. We already knew he had good handles from summer league and college, and we already knew he could fill it up from all over the court.

So why would you even try to convince yourself that the first half of his FIRST season, when he didn't play his own game, would be the Olynyk we could or should expect for the rest of his career?

Is he going to go back into his shell and refuse to use his excellent dribble drives and not look for his shot?

You guys are sad. As KO gets stronger, he's only going to get more aggressive with his dribble drives, which his steady jumper completely opens up. He's going to start seeking out contact around the rim more, like he already started doing towards the end of last year. And unlike most 7 footers, KO shoots over 80% from the line, already, as a rookie.

It's like you guys want to see shy, overthinking, tentative KO for the rest of his career, and think it has a real chance of happening.

[knuckleballer]

I don't think Olynyk will ever be an ideal starter because of his defensive shortcomings.  But if he can add 10-15 pounds of muscle over the next couple of seasons, he shouldn't be too much of a liability.  If you bring him off the bench, you can hide his weaknesses by managing match ups. 

His shooting and passing talents and his size will make him a nice player off the bench.  Calling him Dirk Light is a stretch in my opinion.  I see him as a more as a rich man's Matt Bonner than a poor man's Nowitzki.

[greg683x]

In this thread alone youve said he's a better player than Jabari Parker and is a poor mans Dirk Nowitzki.

He had a good half of a season on a bad team, it's very reasonable not to read too much into it and stick by your same opinions of the guy that you had at the beginning of the year.

He didn't show you anything that can't be chalked up to playing on a bad team? You can't picture him scoring 18 points a game and being a poor man's Dirk in doing so?

Did you not notice that he was playing tentative the first half of the year? Passing up his shot, being hesitant when he did shoot it, and refusing to use his dribble drive game.

After the All Star break all those things changed. We already knew he had good handles from summer league and college, and we already knew he could fill it up from all over the court.

So why would you even try to convince yourself that the first half of his FIRST season, when he didn't play his own game, would be the Olynyk we could or should expect for the rest of his career?

Is he going to go back into his shell and refuse to use his excellent dribble drives and not look for his shot?

You guys are sad. As KO gets stronger, he's only going to get more aggressive with his dribble drives, which his steady jumper completely opens up. He's going to start seeking out contact around the rim more, like he already started doing towards the end of last year. And unlike most 7 footers, KO shoots over 80% from the line, already, as a rookie.

It's like you guys want to see shy, overthinking, tentative KO for the rest of his career, and think it has a real chance of happening.

Ok, thats very half glass full.  People have the right not to make judgements like the ones youve made in such a small sample size bc we've all seen players flame out in the past.  If you want to think Kelly is better than Jabari Parker, thats fine, perhaps we can get you on a conference call with Dan Gilbert and the 4 other teams picking ahead of us.  It's your opinion.

I think just about all of us would happily admit we were wrong about Kelly if he blossoms into the great player youve already crowned him to be buuuuuuut I have a sneaking suspicion that if Kelly flames out and turns into a average role player in the league you wont be chomping at the bit to come back on here and talk about how sad we all are and all the other knee jerk reactions youve had.

[LooseCannon]

His shooting and passing talents and his size will make him a nice player off the bench.  Calling him Dirk Light is a stretch in my opinion.  I see him as a more as a rich man's Matt Bonner than a poor man's Nowitzki.

My comparison has been that Olynyk could be like Andrea Bargnani with adequate defense, average rebounding, better passing, and a better 3P%.  So, Bargnani if he didn't stink in almost every facet of the game.