Dario Saric is a Larry Bird impersonator.

[kozlodoev]

Yeah, so 5 of the top ten guys in the draft are from Wichita State this year.  Sure.

No, the NBA is infatuated with the "potential" of really tall guys that they've barely seen playing. Put Saric in the NCAA for a year, and he may end up drawing as much interest in the draft as Tim Abromaitis.

[greg683x]

Was Larry this good as a sophomore at Indiana?   Because Larry was a 23 yo rookie in NBA and this kid is only 20.   He looks like a guy you would hate on the other team and I like that.   He constantly trash talks Wiggins and Parker because he thinks he is better.   I kind of like that about him.

Larry played at Indiana State.

He averaged 33/13/4 as a freshman, 30/12/4 as a sophomore, and 29/15/6 as a junior.

a. I had no idea that Bird did that well as a freshman and sophomore.  Wow.
b. I thought he was a freshman at Indiana, quit, took a year off before playing for Indiana State. 
c. I think the competition that Saric is playing, at the age of 20, is considerably better than Bird faced at the same age, although impossible to compare for many reasons. Point is, I think Saric would probably be averaging in the high 20's in that conference today, if one could project such things. 
d. Kevin O'Conner has studied Saric quite a bit, and has a considerably higher opinion than you, Roy, of Saric's current skill set, on both sides of the ball.   I know he is no Bird, but you seem to be very skeptical of Saric's prospects.  Wondering why.

have you watched this guy play in a single game?  ever?  or just highlight videos on youtube??  and scouting reports from guys who thought Jan Vesley was the most athletic euro theyve ever seen and will be an impact player in the NBA.

[Lucky17]

Gil (NYC)
Do you have a player comparison for Dario Saric or are his Euro numbers impossible to translate?

Kevin Pelton  (4:31 PM)
Small pool of players so young to draw from, but Al Harrington came out as his No. 1 comp, followed by Tobias Harris.

That "pfffffft" sound you hear is my enthusiasm for Saric rapidly deflating.

[PickNRoll]

The highlights from the Final 4 are a lot more impressive.  Looks to be a very cerebral player.  That said, it's a highlight reel and he's playing against a bunch of stiffs.  I'm warming to him tho.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rCk4vUx0_J0

[BballTim]

This is turning into a helluva draft.

We have the next Hakeem, T-Mac, Melo, Shawn Marion, Anfernee Hardaway, and now Larry Bird too!

  So basically it's still a little shy of all the early season projections. I'm pretty sure we were all promised 2 more franchise players than you listed. How about a Russell, and a Pistol Pete would be cool.

[clover]

This is turning into a helluva draft.

We have the next Hakeem, T-Mac, Melo, Shawn Marion, Anfernee Hardaway, and now Larry Bird too!

  So basically it's still a little shy of all the early season projections. I'm pretty sure we were all promised 2 more franchise players than you listed. How about a Russell, and a Pistol Pete would be cool.

Ha ha. We've got a Paul Pierce projected for third, and was that Kobe in the 4th slot?

[Celtics18]

This is turning into a helluva draft.

We have the next Hakeem, T-Mac, Melo, Shawn Marion, Anfernee Hardaway, and now Larry Bird too!

  So basically it's still a little shy of all the early season projections. I'm pretty sure we were all promised 2 more franchise players than you listed. How about a Russell, and a Pistol Pete would be cool.

Ha ha. We've got a Paul Pierce projected for third, and was that Kobe in the 4th slot?

No. no.  The next Carmelo is going third.  The next Paul Pierce will still be around somewhere between 15 and 20. 

And, it's Penny Hardaway at fourth. 

[footey]

Was Larry this good as a sophomore at Indiana?   Because Larry was a 23 yo rookie in NBA and this kid is only 20.   He looks like a guy you would hate on the other team and I like that.   He constantly trash talks Wiggins and Parker because he thinks he is better.   I kind of like that about him.

Larry played at Indiana State.

He averaged 33/13/4 as a freshman, 30/12/4 as a sophomore, and 29/15/6 as a junior.

a. I had no idea that Bird did that well as a freshman and sophomore.  Wow.
b. I thought he was a freshman at Indiana, quit, took a year off before playing for Indiana State. 
c. I think the competition that Saric is playing, at the age of 20, is considerably better than Bird faced at the same age, although impossible to compare for many reasons. Point is, I think Saric would probably be averaging in the high 20's in that conference today, if one could project such things. 
d. Kevin O'Conner has studied Saric quite a bit, and has a considerably higher opinion than you, Roy, of Saric's current skill set, on both sides of the ball.   I know he is no Bird, but you seem to be very skeptical of Saric's prospects.  Wondering why.

have you watched this guy play in a single game?  ever?  or just highlight videos on youtube??  and scouting reports from guys who thought Jan Vesley was the most athletic euro theyve ever seen and will be an impact player in the NBA.

No I have not. Video scouting reports, mostly DraftExpress, which seems quite balanced. 

[greg683x]

Was Larry this good as a sophomore at Indiana?   Because Larry was a 23 yo rookie in NBA and this kid is only 20.   He looks like a guy you would hate on the other team and I like that.   He constantly trash talks Wiggins and Parker because he thinks he is better.   I kind of like that about him.

Larry played at Indiana State.

He averaged 33/13/4 as a freshman, 30/12/4 as a sophomore, and 29/15/6 as a junior.

a. I had no idea that Bird did that well as a freshman and sophomore.  Wow.
b. I thought he was a freshman at Indiana, quit, took a year off before playing for Indiana State. 
c. I think the competition that Saric is playing, at the age of 20, is considerably better than Bird faced at the same age, although impossible to compare for many reasons. Point is, I think Saric would probably be averaging in the high 20's in that conference today, if one could project such things. 
d. Kevin O'Conner has studied Saric quite a bit, and has a considerably higher opinion than you, Roy, of Saric's current skill set, on both sides of the ball.   I know he is no Bird, but you seem to be very skeptical of Saric's prospects.  Wondering why.

have you watched this guy play in a single game?  ever?  or just highlight videos on youtube??  and scouting reports from guys who thought Jan Vesley was the most athletic euro theyve ever seen and will be an impact player in the NBA.

No I have not. Video scouting reports, mostly DraftExpress, which seems quite balanced.

i just feel more comfortable using a pick thats as high as #6 on a player that is averaging 20 points per game in a college conference, instead of a player that we THINK would average 20 points per game in a college conference.

using lottery picks on these guys cost GMs their jobs. 

[aporel#18]

Ok, this is going too far...

I really hope Saric signs a big contract for a Big Euroleague Team, with an affordable exit clause after year 2 so GMs aren't taking him with a lottery pick. Saric available at #17, two-year stash in Europe and in a couple of years we'd have a top-10 player (or better) in the 2014 Draft.

I wouldn't use our own pick because it would mean Saric is coming too soon to NBA. ABA is not the best competition in Europe, but comparing it with the NCAA is insulting, frankly. The old NCAA of Larry, Bias, Jordan, Olajuwon was great, but today's college basketball is not only boring, but it doesn't help a lick in developing players. Most of the best NBA players come from the NCAA because of the talent pool, not because the NCAA is really good. Even the French League is better than the NCAA Division I.

Saric is one of my favorite players in this (and past) Draft, and I'd love to see him in Celtic Green, but at the right pick. He's no Larry Bird, but nobody is and nobody will be. He's still developing his shoot, but he will be very very good. Kukoc good would be fantastic, Larry Bird good is impossible. Nobody, not even the media golden boy LeBroid is. That said, I really want to see Dario against LeBron in a couple of years, this kid will try to make all the veterans mad. He's got a little Drazen (fearless, obnoxious and even shooting form) in him, but in a PF body.

[footey]

Was Larry this good as a sophomore at Indiana?   Because Larry was a 23 yo rookie in NBA and this kid is only 20.   He looks like a guy you would hate on the other team and I like that.   He constantly trash talks Wiggins and Parker because he thinks he is better.   I kind of like that about him.

Larry played at Indiana State.

He averaged 33/13/4 as a freshman, 30/12/4 as a sophomore, and 29/15/6 as a junior.

a. I had no idea that Bird did that well as a freshman and sophomore.  Wow.
b. I thought he was a freshman at Indiana, quit, took a year off before playing for Indiana State. 
c. I think the competition that Saric is playing, at the age of 20, is considerably better than Bird faced at the same age, although impossible to compare for many reasons. Point is, I think Saric would probably be averaging in the high 20's in that conference today, if one could project such things. 
d. Kevin O'Conner has studied Saric quite a bit, and has a considerably higher opinion than you, Roy, of Saric's current skill set, on both sides of the ball.   I know he is no Bird, but you seem to be very skeptical of Saric's prospects.  Wondering why.

have you watched this guy play in a single game?  ever?  or just highlight videos on youtube??  and scouting reports from guys who thought Jan Vesley was the most athletic euro theyve ever seen and will be an impact player in the NBA.

No I have not. Video scouting reports, mostly DraftExpress, which seems quite balanced.

i just feel more comfortable using a pick thats as high as #6 on a player that is averaging 20 points per game in a college conference, instead of a player that we THINK would average 20 points per game in a college conference.

using lottery picks on these guys cost GMs their jobs.

Fortunately the Celtics aren't relying on me or anyone else on this Board to make the pick. If Ainge picks this guy, it will be based on solid research; he has been following him carefully the last couple of years, according to reports. 

I took your advice and watched him play in a game, rather than highlights.  I like his energy and court awareness.  I am a little concerned that he seems a bit stiff, not what you would call smooth, athletic. Reminds me of Galinari in this regard; very upright on the court. Like a stick up his butt. If he could play and defend small forwards, I'd be more enthusiastic.  Just don't know that he can.  That is why I would probably still favor Gordon at the 6th pick.  I just feel he is a safer pick.  Even if he never develops offensively much, he would still be an asset due to his excellent defense and energy.  Like Tony Allen only 5" taller!!

[Galeto]

d. Kevin O'Conner has studied Saric quite a bit, and has a considerably higher opinion than you, Roy, of Saric's current skill set, on both sides of the ball.   I know he is no Bird, but you seem to be very skeptical of Saric's prospects.  Wondering why.

Kevin's just one of many, many amateurs with an opinion. 

I think skeptical is the right word.  Every year, there are a few guys who play against inferior competition who always seem to shoot up draft boards.  What's the success rate on foreign players who haven't played in the NCAA since, say, the Darko draft?

2003 - Darko (bust), Pietrus (solid), Cabarkapa (bust), Pavlovic (disappointment), Pavlovic (bust), Barbosa (solid)

2004 - Podkolzine (bust), Khryapa (bust), Monia (bust), Vujacic (solid), Udrih (solid)

2005 - Vazquez (bust), Korolev (bust), Petro (disappointment), Mahinmi (solid)

2006 - Bargnani (disappointment), Sene (bust), Pecherov (bust), Freeland (solid)

2007 - Jianlian (bust), Bellinelli (solid), Fernandez (disappointment), Splitter (solid), Koponen (bust)

2008 - Gallinari (solid), Ajinca (disappointment), Ibaka (star), Batum (solid)

2009 - Rubio (solid), Claver (bust), Casspi (disappointment), Beaubois (bust)

2010 - Seraphin (disappointment)

2011 - Valanciunas (TBD), Vesely (bust), Biyombo (disappointment), Motiejunas (disappointment), Mirotic (TBD)

2012 - Fournier (TBD)

2013 - Adetokoubo (TBD, looks good), Nogueira (TBD), Schroeder (TBD), Karasev (TBD), Gobert (TBD), Jean-Charles (TBD), Nedovic (TBD)

In the last 11 years, that's 46 foreign players taken in the first round.  None have been all-stars, and only three have been above-average:  Ibaka, Gallinari and Batum.

So, part of my skepticism comes from the track record, and the failure of scouting.  The other part comes from Saric's game:  he appears too slow to be a SF, and too weak to be a PF.  He's not a great outside shooter, he's not particularly athletic, and he turns the ball over too much.  In the Eurocup, against mediocre competition, he was mediocre.  He shined in the Adriatic league, but that's the 9th best league in Europe, and beneath the quality of the NCAA.

Until I see him prove himself regularly against decent competition, I will continue to be a skeptic.  I think the hype is much too high.

I agree with a lot of this but since you only decided to look at first rounders, you missed some very good second rounders like Varejeo, Asik, Petkovic and Dragic, all of whom I would consider above-average.  I also consider Splitter above-average and better than Gallinari.  Counting the second rounders, your three and Splitter takes the tally eight.

Also, you can't simultaneously count players like Valanciunas in your overall tally, where he ranks as a non-above average player while being a TBD.  Just don't count the TBDs at all.

[Roy H.]

d. Kevin O'Conner has studied Saric quite a bit, and has a considerably higher opinion than you, Roy, of Saric's current skill set, on both sides of the ball.   I know he is no Bird, but you seem to be very skeptical of Saric's prospects.  Wondering why.

Kevin's just one of many, many amateurs with an opinion. 

I think skeptical is the right word.  Every year, there are a few guys who play against inferior competition who always seem to shoot up draft boards.  What's the success rate on foreign players who haven't played in the NCAA since, say, the Darko draft?

2003 - Darko (bust), Pietrus (solid), Cabarkapa (bust), Pavlovic (disappointment), Pavlovic (bust), Barbosa (solid)

2004 - Podkolzine (bust), Khryapa (bust), Monia (bust), Vujacic (solid), Udrih (solid)

2005 - Vazquez (bust), Korolev (bust), Petro (disappointment), Mahinmi (solid)

2006 - Bargnani (disappointment), Sene (bust), Pecherov (bust), Freeland (solid)

2007 - Jianlian (bust), Bellinelli (solid), Fernandez (disappointment), Splitter (solid), Koponen (bust)

2008 - Gallinari (solid), Ajinca (disappointment), Ibaka (star), Batum (solid)

2009 - Rubio (solid), Claver (bust), Casspi (disappointment), Beaubois (bust)

2010 - Seraphin (disappointment)

2011 - Valanciunas (TBD), Vesely (bust), Biyombo (disappointment), Motiejunas (disappointment), Mirotic (TBD)

2012 - Fournier (TBD)

2013 - Adetokoubo (TBD, looks good), Nogueira (TBD), Schroeder (TBD), Karasev (TBD), Gobert (TBD), Jean-Charles (TBD), Nedovic (TBD)

In the last 11 years, that's 46 foreign players taken in the first round.  None have been all-stars, and only three have been above-average:  Ibaka, Gallinari and Batum.

So, part of my skepticism comes from the track record, and the failure of scouting.  The other part comes from Saric's game:  he appears too slow to be a SF, and too weak to be a PF.  He's not a great outside shooter, he's not particularly athletic, and he turns the ball over too much.  In the Eurocup, against mediocre competition, he was mediocre.  He shined in the Adriatic league, but that's the 9th best league in Europe, and beneath the quality of the NCAA.

Until I see him prove himself regularly against decent competition, I will continue to be a skeptic.  I think the hype is much too high.

I agree with a lot of this but since you only decided to look at first rounders, you missed some very good second rounders like Varejeo, Asik, Petkovic and Dragic, all of whom I would consider above-average.  I also consider Splitter above-average and better than Gallinari.  Counting the second rounders, your three and Splitter takes the tally eight.

Also, you can't simultaneously count players like Valanciunas in your overall tally, where he ranks as a non-above average player while being a TBD.  Just don't count the TBDs at all.

If Saric falls to the second round, I'm all for buying a pick to take him.

The point was that drafting foreign players hasn't yielded a lot of value.  Spending the #6 pick on a guy who is a big unknown seems unwise, when there are more proven guys still on the board.

[Celtics18]

What about Exum?  Nobody seems too concerned that he hasn't played against better competition.

[CoachBo]

A mid-second round pick.

This is yet another example of a vastly overrated Euro being built up into something he clearly is not - which is a starter on a Top 20 D-1 team. Wasting a top 25 pick on this guy is absolutely nuts.

Which doesn't comfort me much, given Danny's bizarre affection for tall stiffs - Yi Jianlian, Patrick O'Bryant, Micki Moore ...

BIG-time reach in the first round, hyperbole in this thread aside.