Why the last 4 games matter

[LarBrd33]

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/NBA_draft_lottery

I know I shouldn't trust Wikipedia, but according to them, the worst we can do if we finish seventh worst is the ninth pick. 

The number nine pick, by the way, has an almost absurd success rate, historically.  The bust rate is very low, and there are even some stars thrown in:

Here are some notables:

Dirk Nowitzki, Tracey McGrady, Shawn Marion, Otis Thorpe, Joakim Noah, Amare Stoudemire, Dale Ellis, Rolando Blackman, Charles Oakley, Derrick McKey, Demar Derozan, Andre Drummond, Andre Iguodala, Rony Seikaly, Stacey Augmon, Clarence Weatherspoon, Gordon Hayward, Kemba Walker, Rodney Rogers.


In any event, if we win all the rest of our games, the chances of getting a number one pick is much higher than the chances of getting a number nine pick.  Getting lower than ninth, as far as I can tell, isn't possible at all.

The chart's a little misleading, there's a chance the #7 team finishes 10th, it's just extraordinarily low, well below 1/10th of 1%.  If there's a number on the chart, it's a possible outcome, the number being .000 just means it's really really unlikely.

So in other words, I'm right.

Celtics18... it's not Rocket Surgery.

The odds are slim, but it's still theoretically possible.  If 3 teams with the 8th-15th best odds end up in the Top 3... we'd end up picking 10th.

#1 - 10th (1% chance of happening)
#2 - 8th (3% chance of happening)
#3 - 12th (1% chance of happening)
#4 - 1st
#5 - 2nd
#6 - 3rd
#7 - 4th
#8 - 5th
#9 - 6th
#10 - 7th

Is a miracle still called a miracle if it negatively impacts you?  It would take a small miracle for us to end up 10th... we'd have to win the next 5... Kings would need to lose the next 5... 3 teams in the 8-15 range would need to end up in the top 3.

You read wiki wrong.  1000 possible combinations.  82 belong to teams 8-15.  The odds that the top 3 picks end up all coming from those 82 combinations are slim, but it's certainly possible. 

But you ARE right that if we ended up with 7th worst odds... we'd have a 4% chance at #1 and a 2% chance at #9

[Celtics18]

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/NBA_draft_lottery

I know I shouldn't trust Wikipedia, but according to them, the worst we can do if we finish seventh worst is the ninth pick. 

The number nine pick, by the way, has an almost absurd success rate, historically.  The bust rate is very low, and there are even some stars thrown in:

Here are some notables:

Dirk Nowitzki, Tracey McGrady, Shawn Marion, Otis Thorpe, Joakim Noah, Amare Stoudemire, Dale Ellis, Rolando Blackman, Charles Oakley, Derrick McKey, Demar Derozan, Andre Drummond, Andre Iguodala, Rony Seikaly, Stacey Augmon, Clarence Weatherspoon, Gordon Hayward, Kemba Walker, Rodney Rogers.


In any event, if we win all the rest of our games, the chances of getting a number one pick is much higher than the chances of getting a number nine pick.  Getting lower than ninth, as far as I can tell, isn't possible at all.

The chart's a little misleading, there's a chance the #7 team finishes 10th, it's just extraordinarily low, well below 1/10th of 1%.  If there's a number on the chart, it's a possible outcome, the number being .000 just means it's really really unlikely.

So in other words, I'm right.

Celtics18... it's not Rocket Surgery.

The odds are slim, but it's still theoretically possible.  If 3 teams with the 8th-15th best odds end up in the Top 3... we'd end up picking 10th.

#1 - 10th (1% chance of happening)
#2 - 8th (3% chance of happening)
#3 - 12th (1% chance of happening)
#4 - 1st
#5 - 2nd
#6 - 3rd
#7 - 4th
#8 - 5th
#9 - 6th
#10 - 7th

Is a miracle still called a miracle if it negatively impacts you?  It would take a small miracle for us to end up 10th... we'd have to win the next 5... Kings would need to lose the next 5... 3 teams in the 8-15 range would need to end up in the top 3.

You read wiki wrong.

But you ARE right that if we ended up with 7th worst odds... we'd have a 4% chance at #1 and a 2% chance at #9

Go ahead and root for your negative miracle.  If it comes to pass, you can blame me.  On the other hand, when Dario Saric turns into a superstar at that pick, you'll have to take it all back. 

[LarBrd33]

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/NBA_draft_lottery

I know I shouldn't trust Wikipedia, but according to them, the worst we can do if we finish seventh worst is the ninth pick. 

The number nine pick, by the way, has an almost absurd success rate, historically.  The bust rate is very low, and there are even some stars thrown in:

Here are some notables:

Dirk Nowitzki, Tracey McGrady, Shawn Marion, Otis Thorpe, Joakim Noah, Amare Stoudemire, Dale Ellis, Rolando Blackman, Charles Oakley, Derrick McKey, Demar Derozan, Andre Drummond, Andre Iguodala, Rony Seikaly, Stacey Augmon, Clarence Weatherspoon, Gordon Hayward, Kemba Walker, Rodney Rogers.


In any event, if we win all the rest of our games, the chances of getting a number one pick is much higher than the chances of getting a number nine pick.  Getting lower than ninth, as far as I can tell, isn't possible at all.

The chart's a little misleading, there's a chance the #7 team finishes 10th, it's just extraordinarily low, well below 1/10th of 1%.  If there's a number on the chart, it's a possible outcome, the number being .000 just means it's really really unlikely.

So in other words, I'm right.

Celtics18... it's not Rocket Surgery.

The odds are slim, but it's still theoretically possible.  If 3 teams with the 8th-15th best odds end up in the Top 3... we'd end up picking 10th.

#1 - 10th (1% chance of happening)
#2 - 8th (3% chance of happening)
#3 - 12th (1% chance of happening)
#4 - 1st
#5 - 2nd
#6 - 3rd
#7 - 4th
#8 - 5th
#9 - 6th
#10 - 7th

Is a miracle still called a miracle if it negatively impacts you?  It would take a small miracle for us to end up 10th... we'd have to win the next 5... Kings would need to lose the next 5... 3 teams in the 8-15 range would need to end up in the top 3.

You read wiki wrong.

But you ARE right that if we ended up with 7th worst odds... we'd have a 4% chance at #1 and a 2% chance at #9

Go ahead and root for your negative miracle.  If it comes to pass, you can blame me.  On the other hand, when Dario Saric turns into a superstar at that pick, you'll have to take it all back.

I mean... at this point, realistically, there's nothing to gain from winning any of these next 5 games.  Our team won less than 30 games this year.  We are hot garbage.  Ainge designed the team to lose this year and they did exactly that.  The minority who thought we were a playoff team ended up being completely out of touch and very very wrong.  The rest of us who figured this team would win around 27 ended up being on the ball.   At this point, the best outcome is more ping pong combos. 

[Celtics18]

Yes, Larry, that is certainly the majority opinion at this point.

I apologize for being a bad fan and continuing to buck the status quo by rooting for my team to gain a measure of self-respect by winning some of these remaining games.

Let the balls fall where they may. 

[LarBrd33]

Yes, Larry, that is certainly the majority opinion at this point.

I apologize for being a bad fan and continuing to buck the status quo by rooting for my team to gain a measure of self-respect by winning some of these remaining games.

Let the balls fall where they may.

Celtics18... I just assume you're reverse reverse jinxing by rooting for the team all year.  You couldn't possibly have wanted this garbage team to limp into the playoffs, get thrashed by Indiana/Miami and end up with the #15th pick.   Deep down, you're desperately hoping we land a stud in the Top 5 of this draft.

[D.o.s.]

I think we're all hoping that whoever we draft turns out to be the next Tim Duncan/Dirk Nowitzki/Kobe Bryant/Franchise Icon.

I think we all hope for that every draft, right?

[Celtics18]

Yes, Larry, that is certainly the majority opinion at this point.

I apologize for being a bad fan and continuing to buck the status quo by rooting for my team to gain a measure of self-respect by winning some of these remaining games.

Let the balls fall where they may.

Celtics18... I just assume you're reverse reverse jinxing by rooting for the team all year.  You couldn't possibly have wanted this garbage team to limp into the playoffs, get thrashed by Indiana/Miami and end up with the #15th pick.   Deep down, you're desperately hoping we land a stud in the Top 5 of this draft.

I'd love to land a stud in this year's draft, but I have in complete earnestness been rooting for wins all season long and am still doing so.

[LarBrd33]

Yes, Larry, that is certainly the majority opinion at this point.

I apologize for being a bad fan and continuing to buck the status quo by rooting for my team to gain a measure of self-respect by winning some of these remaining games.

Let the balls fall where they may.

Celtics18... I just assume you're reverse reverse jinxing by rooting for the team all year.  You couldn't possibly have wanted this garbage team to limp into the playoffs, get thrashed by Indiana/Miami and end up with the #15th pick.   Deep down, you're desperately hoping we land a stud in the Top 5 of this draft.

I'd love to land a stud in this year's draft, but I have in complete earnestness been rooting for wins all season long and am still doing so.

Well certainly don't change what you're doing now.   Me embracing the tank job and you rooting for wins (in spite of Ainge's efforts) seems to be doing wonders for the team so far.  We're in reach, baby. 

[Celtics18]

Yes, Larry, that is certainly the majority opinion at this point.

I apologize for being a bad fan and continuing to buck the status quo by rooting for my team to gain a measure of self-respect by winning some of these remaining games.

Let the balls fall where they may.

Celtics18... I just assume you're reverse reverse jinxing by rooting for the team all year.  You couldn't possibly have wanted this garbage team to limp into the playoffs, get thrashed by Indiana/Miami and end up with the #15th pick.   Deep down, you're desperately hoping we land a stud in the Top 5 of this draft.

I'd love to land a stud in this year's draft, but I have in complete earnestness been rooting for wins all season long and am still doing so.

Well certainly don't change what you're doing now.   Me embracing the tank job and you rooting for wins (in spite of Ainge's efforts) seems to be doing wonders for the team so far.  We're in reach, baby.

I swear, I don't have the powers that you seem to think I do.  If we win the next five, I didn't cause it, and if we lose them all, that wasn't me either.

[LarBrd33]

Yes, Larry, that is certainly the majority opinion at this point.

I apologize for being a bad fan and continuing to buck the status quo by rooting for my team to gain a measure of self-respect by winning some of these remaining games.

Let the balls fall where they may.

Celtics18... I just assume you're reverse reverse jinxing by rooting for the team all year.  You couldn't possibly have wanted this garbage team to limp into the playoffs, get thrashed by Indiana/Miami and end up with the #15th pick.   Deep down, you're desperately hoping we land a stud in the Top 5 of this draft.

I'd love to land a stud in this year's draft, but I have in complete earnestness been rooting for wins all season long and am still doing so.

Well certainly don't change what you're doing now.   Me embracing the tank job and you rooting for wins (in spite of Ainge's efforts) seems to be doing wonders for the team so far.  We're in reach, baby.

I swear, I don't have the powers that you seem to think I do.  If we win the next five, I didn't cause it, and if we lose them all, that wasn't me either.

Just keep doing what you're doing, Celtics18.  Don't fail me now.  You rooting against Ainge's plan is working out so far.

[SHAQATTACK]

Full tank


Ahead


Embiid


Tie Stevens up and leave him in the Hotel Room .

Let the towel and bucket kid call the game .

[Celtics18]

Yes, Larry, that is certainly the majority opinion at this point.

I apologize for being a bad fan and continuing to buck the status quo by rooting for my team to gain a measure of self-respect by winning some of these remaining games.

Let the balls fall where they may.

Celtics18... I just assume you're reverse reverse jinxing by rooting for the team all year.  You couldn't possibly have wanted this garbage team to limp into the playoffs, get thrashed by Indiana/Miami and end up with the #15th pick.   Deep down, you're desperately hoping we land a stud in the Top 5 of this draft.

I'd love to land a stud in this year's draft, but I have in complete earnestness been rooting for wins all season long and am still doing so.

Well certainly don't change what you're doing now.   Me embracing the tank job and you rooting for wins (in spite of Ainge's efforts) seems to be doing wonders for the team so far.  We're in reach, baby.

I swear, I don't have the powers that you seem to think I do.  If we win the next five, I didn't cause it, and if we lose them all, that wasn't me either.

Just keep doing what you're doing, Celtics18.  Don't fail me now.  You rooting against Ainge's plan is working out so far.

Oh well, I guess I couldn't convince you that I don't have supernatural powers. 

Boo

[nickagneta]

I think the odds of finishing drafting 10th  if the original lottery slot is 7th are 0.0024% or about 1 in every 41500.

That's pretty long odds.

[D.o.s.]

I think the odds of finishing drafting 10th  if the original lottery slot is 7th are 0.0024% or about 1 in every 41500.

That's pretty long odds.

*cue Han Solo*

[jambr380]

The minority who thought we were a playoff team ended up being completely out of touch and very very wrong.  The rest of us who figured this team would win around 27 ended up being on the ball.   At this point, the best outcome is more ping pong combos.

Not to cause trouble, but about a month ago you were the one proclaiming that we were going to go on this massive winning streak and make the playoffs. Our competition was just too weak and we were destined for greatness.

I realize you were probably just being contrary, but to throw yourself in with the 27 win crowd (which you may have at one time been) seems a little far-fetched.