Why the last 4 games matter

[Quetzalcoatl]

Iguodala shot .743%, .754%, .820% in his first three years and only fell down to .574% last year for that one year in Denver and he's back up to .646% this year.  There isn't much you can do to scout for someone losing 20% of their free throw shooting 9 years into the league.  It's not really a fair comparison to Gordon, in any case.

Same thing with Bowen, he started out okay and then his FT% fell apart like 8 years in.  He's probably a better example for Gordon's ceiling

[D.o.s.]

I, however, would not be one bit surprised if Dante Exum ends up being outside the top ten players from the 2014 draft.

This makes no sense to me. Are you just being contrarian because we didn't nab an 8th seed?

Gordon is not some ordinary Joe.  He is a top 5 talent.  If his shot was more consistent, would that change your mind? His mechanics are good and just need to be tightened up

There is no question he is a top 3 defender. I mean who can guard pg's to pf's these days?  He will also able to guard elite offensive Sf's like Lebron. Trust me, it will come in handy

He'll still be a rookie. He might be a top 3 defender in his draft class, but so was MKG.

[Celtics18]

I, however, would not be one bit surprised if Dante Exum ends up being outside the top ten players from the 2014 draft.

This makes no sense to me. Are you just being contrarian because we didn't nab an 8th seed?

Maybe a little bit, but the Exum hype just doesn't make sense to me.  Nobody has seen him play against top notch competition because he hasn't played against top notch competition. 

Most of the hype seems to be based on a couple of International High School All Star games that he played well in.  It just seems risky to me to put so many eggs into the basket of a kid who is as unknown an entity as Dante Exum.

I think he and his agent have done a fantastic job setting up the mystique of Dante Exum.  He's kind of like the "insiders" pick.  It makes the average fan feel really smart to like Exum, even though there's very little concrete evidence about how he will play against much, much better competition than he has played against.

If he turns out to be an instant star, then, great, it's a cool story. 

[PhoSita]

I'm surprised at this persistent belief around these parts that Dante Exum is on a clear level above Randle, Smart, Vonleh, and Gordon (and maybe some others). 

It seems to me that this is not the case.  Most mock drafts fluctuate fairly wide on this issue.  Chad Ford's in love with Exum.  I guess he's considered the draft guru.  Maybe that's why.

I, however, would not be one bit surprised if Dante Exum ends up being outside the top ten players from the 2014 draft.

I personally rely on DraftExpress, and they've had him high on their board all year long.

These draft scout guys don't just watch a couple of international games and decide a player is going to be a star, as you suggest.  I think the approach, at least for most of them, is a lot more professional than that.  I think in addition to the tape you've seen, they probably have notes from international scouts who have gone down there and watched him play more. 

I also trust the ability of expert scouts to look at a player and make some preliminary judgments about the similarities of that player to other players they've seen.

Scouting draft prospects is not just some big hype machine with no substance.  It's a profession.  The way information about the draft is disseminated in the media creates the flash and the hype.  Guys like Chad Ford, who collects scouting information and creates mock drafts constantly, is also looking to get page views, so he surely does what he can to drum up excitement about players.

In any case, it's always possible that a player in any draft falls well short of expectations.  But simply because a player hasn't competed in the NCAA, or some high level of international competition, it doesn't mean that everything you're hearing from scouts is baseless.

[Celtics18]

I'm surprised at this persistent belief around these parts that Dante Exum is on a clear level above Randle, Smart, Vonleh, and Gordon (and maybe some others). 

It seems to me that this is not the case.  Most mock drafts fluctuate fairly wide on this issue.  Chad Ford's in love with Exum.  I guess he's considered the draft guru.  Maybe that's why.

I, however, would not be one bit surprised if Dante Exum ends up being outside the top ten players from the 2014 draft.

I personally rely on DraftExpress, and they've had him high on their board all year long.

These draft scout guys don't just watch a couple of international games and decide a player is going to be a star, as you suggest.  I think the approach, at least for most of them, is a lot more professional than that.  I think in addition to the tape you've seen, they probably have notes from international scouts who have gone down there and watched him play more. 

I also trust the ability of expert scouts to look at a player and make some preliminary judgments about the similarities of that player to other players they've seen.

Scouting draft prospects is not just some big hype machine with no substance.  It's a profession.  The way information about the draft is disseminated in the media creates the flash and the hype.  Guys like Chad Ford, who collects scouting information and creates mock drafts constantly, is also looking to get page views, so he surely does what he can to drum up excitement about players.

In any case, it's always possible that a player in any draft falls well short of expectations.  But simply because a player hasn't competed in the NCAA, or some high level of international competition, it doesn't mean that everything you're hearing from scouts is baseless.

I'm not saying it's baseless, and I don't doubt that the scouts have gone to Australia to watch him play.  All I'm saying is that I think he's the biggest wildcard in the top portion of the draft based on the fact that he hasn't played against the same level of competition consistently as the youngsters who have played NCAA ball or in the top pro leagues in Europe. 

Edit:

Draftexpress currently has Exum ranked fifth behind Randle on their draft board.  My comments on Exum are not meant to suggest that I doubt he's a promising talent.  It is more a response to many around here who have him firmly placed in a top four along with Wiggins, Parker, and Embiid as clearly separated from the rest of the crowd. 

The draft isn't an exact science.  They are almost always full of numerous surprises, but as of the current experts' predictions, it seems like the separation is mainly after the vaunted "big three" of this draft, and not a "top four" including Exum. 

[BigAlTheFuture]

Didn't Exum play in that world vs USA game last summer against the likes of Randle, Parker, Harrison twins, etc. and with the likes of Andrew Wiggins, Karl Towns, etc. and looked like the best player on the court?

[Tr1boy]

Exum also did great in the u19 tourney. The same tourney usa won with Gordon winning mvp

Btw MKG was a top 3 defender in his class but would fall just below gordon in comparison. MKG at 6'7 is comparable to leonard/hollis jefferson in that he is excellent covering his man(sg-sf) and providing some weakside help. But gordon can guard 4 positions, covers the best players late in the game depending who is required to be slowed down and rarely misses a rotations/deadly PnR defender . In the nba only guys like rodman, lebron come to mind that guarded/can guard as many positions well.

[PhoSita]

The draft isn't an exact science.  They are almost always full of numerous surprises, but as of the current experts' predictions, it seems like the separation is mainly after the vaunted "big three" of this draft, and not a "top four" including Exum.

I agree with that, although I think of the next group (Exum, Smart, Vonleh, Gordon, Randle), Exum probably has the highest ceiling.

I like Randle . . . sort of.  I'm not that optimistic about Randle's upside.

[PhoSita]

Exum also did great in the u19 tourney. The same tourney usa won with Gordon winning mvp

Btw MKG was a top 3 defender in his class but would fall below gordon if he was coming out in 2014. Comparable to hollis jefferson at 6'7 in that he is excellent covering his man(sg-sf) and providing weakside help. But gordon can guard 4 positions . In the nba guys like rodman, lebron only come to mind that guarded as many positions well

Yeah, it's unfair for people to compare Gordon to MKG.  Gordon is a much more physically imposing / dominant player than MKG.

[Tr1boy]

The draft isn't an exact science.  They are almost always full of numerous surprises, but as of the current experts' predictions, it seems like the separation is mainly after the vaunted "big three" of this draft, and not a "top four" including Exum.

I agree with that, although I think of the next group (Exum, Smart, Vonleh, Gordon, Randle), Exum probably has the highest ceiling.

I like Randle . . . sort of.  I'm not that optimistic about Randle's upside.

Watching clips , highlights over again vonleh is not someone I would draft from 4 to 7. He has bad hands, poor court awareness (unlike sully who can pass out of the double team) and lack of good explosivesness (might not be much of a shot blocker in the nba). Yes he can shoot , rebound plus has a 7'4 wingspan. But thats not enough to pick somebody so high

Randles avg defense (like parker) is of concern.

I hope it comes down to exum and gordon with our 4-6 pick. I would be happy with either if we miss out on embiid/wiggins or parker I guess.

[Boston Garden Leprechaun]

Exum <3 LA because...Kobe so he'll probably force his way there unless LA pick #1 or #2.

Wiggins/Embiid/Parker/Gordon in that order are who I hope we draft

I think this Exum forcing his way to the Lakers stuff is waayyy overblown. There is very little if any reason to believe that this would happen. If he's the best player on the board when we pick, I'm sure Ainge will take him.

agreed

[SHAQATTACK]

Exum <3 LA because...Kobe so he'll probably force his way there unless LA pick #1 or #2.

Wiggins/Embiid/Parker/Gordon in that order are who I hope we draft

I think this Exum forcing his way to the Lakers stuff is waayyy overblown. There is very little if any reason to believe that this would happen. If he's the best player on the board when we pick, I'm sure Ainge will take him.

agreed

I'm not against taking him.....but ..I can 't seem to see it happening ...but never know with Stevens playing to win every game .  We could wind up with Gordon , if we don't tank .

Exum.... Just has that Lakers appeal about him,  he would just look right in the purple and gold slime jersey.   Plus they are looking for a high profile guard to take Nash's spot.

Wiggins is another Laker like player...but they won't get him in the draft.

I'm afraid he maybe destined to be a Laker .   Lakers always want the Chic , latest and greatest flashy players .   They never go for guys like Milsap , Big Al , nor do I think they will want Randle or Vonleh.  They are not a blue collar team ever,   The players they like are generally the players I can not stand .

[chambers]

Huge drop? Gordon is an elite prospect. He could be the best player in a few years . He is an advanced defender already

As much as iam not a big fan of smart if he can be a little less careless and be a more consistent shooter could be the best player out of this draft.

There is no assurance parker, embiid, wiggins are sure things. Its mainly based on upside instead of witnessing in your face dominance.

Im ok with a pick from 1 to 6. Then I would say things start to drop off a little

Are you his dad or something? Don't get why you like this kid so much. Aside from his athleticism and defense, I don't see why he is so "elite."

Lol

Gordon is a great player. Good fundamentals and very strong work ethic- he could be a terrific NBA player- but he's not on the same 'franchise' potential level that can be had with a top 3 pick. He's NOT a top 5 talent in the country and he is perhaps an Iguadala level pro at his VERY best.
One could argue that he's a man amongst boys out there and similarly to Randle, he'll be in for a reality check in the NBA.
Gordon reminds me of Shane Battier. Solid college player, excellent role player/starter that every team needs- but NOT anywhere near the likes of guys like Wiggins, Parker, Embid, Smart, Exum or even Vonleh. What is Gordon's ceiling compared to everyone else?
We don't want a role player with our 3rd, 4th or 5th pick. We want to gamble on someone that may be the 1st or 2nd string guy on an NBA championship team.
Aaron Gordon simply doesn't appear to have that kind of ceiling.

You gotta swing big in opportunities like this mate, Gordon is great but that's all he'll ever be. You don't strategically tank like Ainge has done so for the last 12 months and then invest that time and effort into a junkyard dog like Aaron Gordon. Now with the 10th to 15th pick? Hell yes, but top 6? Hell no.

[Celtics18]

The draft isn't an exact science.  They are almost always full of numerous surprises, but as of the current experts' predictions, it seems like the separation is mainly after the vaunted "big three" of this draft, and not a "top four" including Exum.

I agree with that, although I think of the next group (Exum, Smart, Vonleh, Gordon, Randle), Exum probably has the highest ceiling.

I like Randle . . . sort of.  I'm not that optimistic about Randle's upside.

I'm obviously no expert, but I think anyone of those guys could end up being the best of the bunch.  I also think it's likely that someone picked later (maybe Warren, Stauskas, Saric, Nurkic, Capela, Payne, Ennis . . . ) could end up being better than any of them.

It's an exciting draft!

[nickagneta]

Exum also did great in the u19 tourney. The same tourney usa won with Gordon winning mvp

Btw MKG was a top 3 defender in his class but would fall below gordon if he was coming out in 2014. Comparable to hollis jefferson at 6'7 in that he is excellent covering his man(sg-sf) and providing weakside help. But gordon can guard 4 positions . In the nba guys like rodman, lebron only come to mind that guarded as many positions well

Yeah, it's unfair for people to compare Gordon to MKG.  Gordon is a much more physically imposing / dominant player than MKG.

I think its a lot more fair to compare Gordon to players like Battier, Bowen and MKG than it is to compare him to Lebron and Rodman. The kid was inept as a college scorer and only an okay rebounder. He has defensive role player written all over him.