Why the last 4 games matter

[footey]

Orlando is one game worse than us with 5 to go.  If we lose the next 5, and they win two, we finish 3rd worst, they finish 4th worst.  If they play one game better than us over the last 5, we end of tied for 3rd worst. Duh.

This is significant if you, like me, place a lot of value in a top 4 pick. I give it almost the same value as the top 1 pick, inasmuch as I see 4 players destined to be really good pros in Embid, Wiggins, Parker and Exum, and a huge drop off in talent starting at 5.

As the chart indicates, our chances of landing a top 4 pick with the 3rd worst record is nearly 70%, while it drops to less than 50% (47.7%) if we finish 4th.  I think (someone should check my assumptions) that our odds of a top 4 pick is 58.6% if we end up tied with Orlando for the 3rd worst record. 

[SHAQATTACK]

It matters that the Celtics get the "L". Racked up

Be it a blow out or one point loss.


Some of the teams are not the nothing dog teams of past .....their are fighting for playoff positions

We need to drop all five though.

[Tr1boy]

Huge drop? Gordon is an elite prospect. He could be the best player in a few years . He is an advanced defender already

As much as iam not a big fan of smart if he can be a little less careless and be a more consistent shooter could be the best player out of this draft.

There is no assurance parker, embiid, wiggins are sure things. Its mainly based on upside instead of witnessing in your face dominance.

Im ok with a pick from 1 to 6. Then I would say things start to drop off a little

[BigAlTheFuture]

Huge drop? Gordon is an elite prospect. He could be the best player in a few years . He is an advanced defender already

As much as iam not a big fan of smart if he can be a little less careless and be a more consistent shooter could be the best player out of this draft.

There is no assurance parker, embiid, wiggins are sure things. Its mainly based on upside instead of witnessing in your face dominance.

Im ok with a pick from 1 to 6. Then I would say things start to drop off a little

Are you his dad or something? Don't get why you like this kid so much. Aside from his athleticism and defense, I don't see why he is so "elite."

[Tr1boy]

Huge drop? Gordon is an elite prospect. He could be the best player in a few years . He is an advanced defender already

As much as iam not a big fan of smart if he can be a little less careless and be a more consistent shooter could be the best player out of this draft.

There is no assurance parker, embiid, wiggins are sure things. Its mainly based on upside instead of witnessing in your face dominance.

Im ok with a pick from 1 to 6. Then I would say things start to drop off a little

Are you his dad or something? Don't get why you like this kid so much. Aside from his athleticism and defense, I don't see why he is so "elite."

I guess you love the globetrotter play instead of appreciating the little things, fundementals, impact. Gordon is mature beyond his age and his motor is top three in this draft. As the game gets more stressful,  crucial gordon steps up his game.  He has more offensive game then we have seen and once he gets stronger will have an easier time having his way

His tournament performance which matters like it or not trumps vs any of the top 6 players did excluding exum. Gordon will do whatever it takes to win. I want a guy like that on the team. Celts desperately need a guy like that

[D.o.s.]

Huge drop? Gordon is an elite prospect. He could be the best player in a few years . He is an advanced defender already

As much as iam not a big fan of smart if he can be a little less careless and be a more consistent shooter could be the best player out of this draft.

There is no assurance parker, embiid, wiggins are sure things. Its mainly based on upside instead of witnessing in your face dominance.

Im ok with a pick from 1 to 6. Then I would say things start to drop off a little

Are you his dad or something? Don't get why you like this kid so much. Aside from his athleticism and defense, I don't see why he is so "elite."

This actually made me laugh out loud -- no hyperbole.

[Celtics18]

I'm surprised at this persistent belief around these parts that Dante Exum is on a clear level above Randle, Smart, Vonleh, and Gordon (and maybe some others). 

It seems to me that this is not the case.  Most mock drafts fluctuate fairly wide on this issue.  Chad Ford's in love with Exum.  I guess he's considered the draft guru.  Maybe that's why.

I, however, would not be one bit surprised if Dante Exum ends up being outside the top ten players from the 2014 draft.   

[BigAlTheFuture]

Huge drop? Gordon is an elite prospect. He could be the best player in a few years . He is an advanced defender already

As much as iam not a big fan of smart if he can be a little less careless and be a more consistent shooter could be the best player out of this draft.

There is no assurance parker, embiid, wiggins are sure things. Its mainly based on upside instead of witnessing in your face dominance.

Im ok with a pick from 1 to 6. Then I would say things start to drop off a little

Are you his dad or something? Don't get why you like this kid so much. Aside from his athleticism and defense, I don't see why he is so "elite."

I guess you love the globetrotter play instead of appreciating the little things, fundementals, impact. Gordon is mature beyond his age and his motor is top three in this draft. As the game gets more stressful,  crucial gordon steps up his game.  He has more offensive game then we have seen and once he gets stronger will have an easier time having his way

His tournament performance which matters like it or not trumps vs any of the top 6 players did excluding exum. Gordon will do whatever it takes to win. I want a guy like that on the team. Celts desperately need a guy like that

I'm not a Gordon-hater or anything. I actually like his game. But we put so much stock in this draft. I would be truly disappointed if we don't get a potential superstar talent like Wiggins, Parker, Embiid, or Exum. I think Gordon will be a good player - but I don't think he's worth tanking our season away for.

[Smokeeye123]

Exum <3 LA because...Kobe so he'll probably force his way there unless LA pick #1 or #2.

Wiggins/Embiid/Parker/Gordon in that order are who I hope we draft

[hpantazo]

Exum <3 LA because...Kobe so he'll probably force his way there unless LA pick #1 or #2.

Wiggins/Embiid/Parker/Gordon in that order are who I hope we draft

I think this Exum forcing his way to the Lakers stuff is waayyy overblown. There is very little if any reason to believe that this would happen. If he's the best player on the board when we pick, I'm sure Ainge will take him.

[footey]

Huge drop? Gordon is an elite prospect. He could be the best player in a few years . He is an advanced defender already

As much as iam not a big fan of smart if he can be a little less careless and be a more consistent shooter could be the best player out of this draft.

There is no assurance parker, embiid, wiggins are sure things. Its mainly based on upside instead of witnessing in your face dominance.

Im ok with a pick from 1 to 6. Then I would say things start to drop off a little

I like Gordon, a lot, but feel he can be had later in the first round. Not at 18, but could see Ainge working a package of the 18 and a future pick to get him.

[Tr1boy]

Huge drop? Gordon is an elite prospect. He could be the best player in a few years . He is an advanced defender already

As much as iam not a big fan of smart if he can be a little less careless and be a more consistent shooter could be the best player out of this draft.

There is no assurance parker, embiid, wiggins are sure things. Its mainly based on upside instead of witnessing in your face dominance.

Im ok with a pick from 1 to 6. Then I would say things start to drop off a little

Are you his dad or something? Don't get why you like this kid so much. Aside from his athleticism and defense, I don't see why he is so "elite."

I guess you love the globetrotter play instead of appreciating the little things, fundementals, impact. Gordon is mature beyond his age and his motor is top three in this draft. As the game gets more stressful,  crucial gordon steps up his game.  He has more offensive game then we have seen and once he gets stronger will have an easier time having his way

His tournament performance which matters like it or not trumps vs any of the top 6 players did excluding exum. Gordon will do whatever it takes to win. I want a guy like that on the team. Celts desperately need a guy like that

I'm not a Gordon-hater or anything. I actually like his game. But we put so much stock in this draft. I would be truly disappointed if we don't get a potential superstar talent like Wiggins, Parker, Embiid, or Exum. I think Gordon will be a good player - but I don't think he's worth tanking our season away for.

Gordon is not some ordinary Joe.  He is a top 5 talent.  If his shot was more consistent, would that change your mind? His mechanics are good and just need to be tightened up

There is no question he is a top 3 defender. I mean who can guard pg's to pf's these days?  He will also able to guard elite offensive Sf's like Lebron. Trust me, it will come in handy

[footey]

I'm surprised at this persistent belief around these parts that Dante Exum is on a clear level above Randle, Smart, Vonleh, and Gordon (and maybe some others). 

It seems to me that this is not the case.  Most mock drafts fluctuate fairly wide on this issue.  Chad Ford's in love with Exum.  I guess he's considered the draft guru.  Maybe that's why.

I, however, would not be one bit surprised if Dante Exum ends up being outside the top ten players from the 2014 draft.

No, there are a few others who project him in the top 4, and a few in the top 3.  Even if you would not take him there, there is a better than 50-50 shot that one of the top 3 (Embid, Parker and Wiggins) will fall to 4, but very low chance any of them fall to 5.  And Exum is the reason why.

[Quetzalcoatl]

Gordon is not some ordinary Joe.  He is a top 5 talent.  If his shot was more consistent, would that change your mind? His mechanics are good and just need to be tightened up

There is no question he is a top 3 defender. I mean who can guard pg's to pf's these days?  He will also able to guard elite offensive Sf's like Lebron. Trust me, it will come in handy

How can Gordon shoot .356 from 3 and then only .422 on free throws?  Has anybody ever shot a better percentage on 3s than FTs before in any league on any level?  Anyways, what position is he going to play in the NBA?  A no offense SF that can't shoot free throws or an undersized, no offense PF that can't shoot free throws?  He cannot play in the 4th quarter of an NBA playoff game until he DOUBLES his FT percentage.

Also, people overrate the NCAA so badly for scouting.  The Adriatic league where Saric and Nurkic are tearing it up at the same age as the NCAA players is a much more competitive league than American college basketball.  Exum has great size and his speed eclipses everyone else in the draft.  He's averaging 18.2 points / 3.6 boards / 3.8 assists in a professional basketball league.  The Australian league is FIBA's current ranked 9th best league in the world - http://www.fiba.com/pages/eng/fc/even/rank/p/openNodeIDs/943/selNodeID/943/rankMen.html - I am guessing the NCAA would be like 15th right after Germany if it were on here.  The rest of the world is catching up pretty quickly.

[Tr1boy]

Gordon is not some ordinary Joe.  He is a top 5 talent.  If his shot was more consistent, would that change your mind? His mechanics are good and just need to be tightened up

There is no question he is a top 3 defender. I mean who can guard pg's to pf's these days?  He will also able to guard elite offensive Sf's like Lebron. Trust me, it will come in handy

How can Gordon shoot .356 from 3 and then only .422 on free throws?  Has anybody ever shot a better percentage on 3s than FTs before in any league on any level?  Anyways, what position is he going to play in the NBA?  A no offense SF that can't shoot free throws or an undersized, no offense PF that can't shoot free throws?  He cannot play in the 4th quarter of an NBA playoff game until he DOUBLES his FT percentage.

Also, people overrate the NCAA so badly for scouting.  The Adriatic league where Saric and Nurkic are tearing it up at the same age as the NCAA players is a much more competitive league than American college basketball.  Exum has great size and his speed eclipses everyone else in the draft.  He's averaging 18.2 points / 3.6 boards / 3.8 assists in a professional basketball league.  The Australian league is FIBA's current ranked 9th best league in the world - http://www.fiba.com/pages/eng/fc/even/rank/p/openNodeIDs/943/selNodeID/943/rankMen.html - I am guessing the NCAA would be like 15th right after Germany if it were on here.  The rest of the world is catching up pretty quickly.

Bruce bowen career ft and 3 pt percentage was close. Iguadala also similar(recent years)