Why the last 4 games matter

[footey]

What's the worst case scenario if we win the Final 5 games?  What's the worst our pick can be?

I have it on good authority that we'll definitely be picking between 8 and 15.

We can't pick worse than 10 at this point.   

Luckily, we'll have some talent on the board still...  Doug McDermott and Kyle Anderson, for instance.  Plus, a couple posters have been explaining to me for months that finishing the season with a nice 5 game flourish will benefit us in SOO many ways... We become a free agent destination, we build a winning identity, the young guys develop great habits that will all carry over into next season... kinda like when the 76ers made a playoff run in 2012. 

Let's get them wins, baby!  Jerami Grant is walking through that door.

8 or 9 worse.cant see that happening tho u less we win all games and det, sac lose all of theirs

Likely 4 to 6 pick unless we win the lotto

4-to-6 is the optimistic outlook.  Embiid and Parker sound like they are staying in school.  We might be able to get Aaron Gordon if the stars align.

Actually we have a shot at 3, or tied for 3, which is the most optimistic.

[LarBrd33]

Embiid is holding a press conference to declare in roughly 10 minutes. 

Gotta be careful - a reverse jinx that's not grounded enough in reality is dangerously close to tipping over into reverse reverse jinx territory.

I hear his press conference is to declare he's staying in school.

[LarBrd33]

What's the worst case scenario if we win the Final 5 games?  What's the worst our pick can be?

I have it on good authority that we'll definitely be picking between 8 and 15.

We can't pick worse than 10 at this point.   

Luckily, we'll have some talent on the board still...  Doug McDermott and Kyle Anderson, for instance.  Plus, a couple posters have been explaining to me for months that finishing the season with a nice 5 game flourish will benefit us in SOO many ways... We become a free agent destination, we build a winning identity, the young guys develop great habits that will all carry over into next season... kinda like when the 76ers made a playoff run in 2012. 

Let's get them wins, baby!  Jerami Grant is walking through that door.

8 or 9 worse.cant see that happening tho u less we win all games and det, sac lose all of theirs

Likely 4 to 6 pick unless we win the lotto

4-to-6 is the optimistic outlook.  Embiid and Parker sound like they are staying in school.  We might be able to get Aaron Gordon if the stars align.

Actually we have a shot at 3, or tied for 3, which is the most optimistic.

Who is going 3rd after Wiggins and Exum?  Randle?  Or is he staying in school too?

[fairweatherfan]

Embiid is holding a press conference to declare in roughly 10 minutes. 

Gotta be careful - a reverse jinx that's not grounded enough in reality is dangerously close to tipping over into reverse reverse jinx territory.

I hear his press conference is to declare he's staying in school.

[footey]

What's the worst case scenario if we win the Final 5 games?  What's the worst our pick can be?

I have it on good authority that we'll definitely be picking between 8 and 15.

We can't pick worse than 10 at this point.   

Luckily, we'll have some talent on the board still...  Doug McDermott and Kyle Anderson, for instance.  Plus, a couple posters have been explaining to me for months that finishing the season with a nice 5 game flourish will benefit us in SOO many ways... We become a free agent destination, we build a winning identity, the young guys develop great habits that will all carry over into next season... kinda like when the 76ers made a playoff run in 2012. 

Let's get them wins, baby!  Jerami Grant is walking through that door.

8 or 9 worse.cant see that happening tho u less we win all games and det, sac lose all of theirs

Likely 4 to 6 pick unless we win the lotto

4-to-6 is the optimistic outlook.  Embiid and Parker sound like they are staying in school.  We might be able to get Aaron Gordon if the stars align.

Actually we have a shot at 3, or tied for 3, which is the most optimistic.

Who is going 3rd after Wiggins and Exum?  Randle?  Or is he staying in school too?

Parker or Exum.  I agree with KO that Randle should slide, maybe outside top 10.

[Celtics18]

I, however, would not be one bit surprised if Dante Exum ends up being outside the top ten players from the 2014 draft.

This makes no sense to me. Are you just being contrarian because we didn't nab an 8th seed?

Maybe a little bit, but the Exum hype just doesn't make sense to me.  Nobody has seen him play against top notch competition because he hasn't played against top notch competition. 

Most of the hype seems to be based on a couple of International High School All Star games that he played well in.  It just seems risky to me to put so many eggs into the basket of a kid who is as unknown an entity as Dante Exum.

I think he and his agent have done a fantastic job setting up the mystique of Dante Exum.  He's kind of like the "insiders" pick.  It makes the average fan feel really smart to like Exum, even though there's very little concrete evidence about how he will play against much, much better competition than he has played against.

If he turns out to be an instant star, then, great, it's a cool story.

Pho explained the draft process better than I could (i.e. it's a serious business when you look beyond the Chad Ford Hype Train), but I do think it's interesting how downplayed international ball is compared to the NCAA on this blog, perhaps for obvious reasons.

Consider: in the same thread, we've seen Aaron Gordon compared to everyone from LeBron to Bruce Bowen on the back of his successful March Madness performance (the smallest of small samples, which ended in a loss), while we've had other posters opine that Exum is destined for the Lakers because of his 'flashy' play and one brutally out-of-context quote.

But, Dante Exum isn't even playing high level international ball.  He plays in an Australian League that nobody sees against competition that isn't anywhere near the top level European clubs.

The hype is all based on play a year ago when he was playing against other eighteen year olds and shined in one high profile All Star game and did well in an under 19 National team tournament. 

[Celtics18]

What's the worst case scenario if we win the Final 5 games?  What's the worst our pick can be?

I have it on good authority that we'll definitely be picking between 8 and 15.

We can't pick worse than 10 at this point.   

Luckily, we'll have some talent on the board still...  Doug McDermott and Kyle Anderson, for instance.  Plus, a couple posters have been explaining to me for months that finishing the season with a nice 5 game flourish will benefit us in SOO many ways... We become a free agent destination, we build a winning identity, the young guys develop great habits that will all carry over into next season... kinda like when the 76ers made a playoff run in 2012. 

Let's get them wins, baby!  Jerami Grant is walking through that door.

No need to be a personal hygiene spray. 

Edit:

You're wrong about where we can finish.  We can't finish any better than 7th worst at this point.  That means we can't get lower than the 9th pick.  Also, from that position we would have more than twice as much chance of landing the top pick as we would of landing the 9th pick. 

[D.o.s.]

I, however, would not be one bit surprised if Dante Exum ends up being outside the top ten players from the 2014 draft.

This makes no sense to me. Are you just being contrarian because we didn't nab an 8th seed?

Maybe a little bit, but the Exum hype just doesn't make sense to me.  Nobody has seen him play against top notch competition because he hasn't played against top notch competition. 

Most of the hype seems to be based on a couple of International High School All Star games that he played well in.  It just seems risky to me to put so many eggs into the basket of a kid who is as unknown an entity as Dante Exum.

I think he and his agent have done a fantastic job setting up the mystique of Dante Exum.  He's kind of like the "insiders" pick.  It makes the average fan feel really smart to like Exum, even though there's very little concrete evidence about how he will play against much, much better competition than he has played against.

If he turns out to be an instant star, then, great, it's a cool story.

Pho explained the draft process better than I could (i.e. it's a serious business when you look beyond the Chad Ford Hype Train), but I do think it's interesting how downplayed international ball is compared to the NCAA on this blog, perhaps for obvious reasons.

Consider: in the same thread, we've seen Aaron Gordon compared to everyone from LeBron to Bruce Bowen on the back of his successful March Madness performance (the smallest of small samples, which ended in a loss), while we've had other posters opine that Exum is destined for the Lakers because of his 'flashy' play and one brutally out-of-context quote.

But, Dante Exum isn't even playing high level international ball.  He plays in an Australian League that nobody sees against competition that isn't anywhere near the top level European clubs.

The hype is all based on play a year ago when he was playing against other eighteen year olds and shined in one high profile All Star game and did well in an under 19 National team tournament.

As opposed to the NCAA, which of course features the best of the best playing each other night in and night out. Oh, and a single tournament. 

As far as "nobody sees", what you really mean is "the general public can't easily hunt it down" and "triboy16f can't get unreasonably excited about random overseas prospects as easily as the ones that play in the States."


I will bet you one whole TP that Exum is drafted in the top 4.

[LarBrd33]

What's the worst case scenario if we win the Final 5 games?  What's the worst our pick can be?

I have it on good authority that we'll definitely be picking between 8 and 15.

We can't pick worse than 10 at this point.   

Luckily, we'll have some talent on the board still...  Doug McDermott and Kyle Anderson, for instance.  Plus, a couple posters have been explaining to me for months that finishing the season with a nice 5 game flourish will benefit us in SOO many ways... We become a free agent destination, we build a winning identity, the young guys develop great habits that will all carry over into next season... kinda like when the 76ers made a playoff run in 2012. 

Let's get them wins, baby!  Jerami Grant is walking through that door.

No need to be a personal hygiene spray. 

Edit:

You're wrong about where we can finish.  We can't finish any better than 7th worst at this point.  That means we can't get lower than the 9th pick.  Also, from that position we would have more than twice as much chance of landing the top pick as we would of landing the 9th pick.

If we finish with 7th worst odds...

and 3 teams in the 8-15 range end up in the Top 3...

We'd pick 9th?

Interesting math.

Worst-case scenario right now is #10.   Not saying it's likely, but it's certainly possible. 

I'm right about where we can finish.

[Celtics18]

What's the worst case scenario if we win the Final 5 games?  What's the worst our pick can be?

I have it on good authority that we'll definitely be picking between 8 and 15.

We can't pick worse than 10 at this point.   

Luckily, we'll have some talent on the board still...  Doug McDermott and Kyle Anderson, for instance.  Plus, a couple posters have been explaining to me for months that finishing the season with a nice 5 game flourish will benefit us in SOO many ways... We become a free agent destination, we build a winning identity, the young guys develop great habits that will all carry over into next season... kinda like when the 76ers made a playoff run in 2012. 

Let's get them wins, baby!  Jerami Grant is walking through that door.

No need to be a personal hygiene spray. 

Edit:

You're wrong about where we can finish.  We can't finish any better than 7th worst at this point.  That means we can't get lower than the 9th pick.  Also, from that position we would have more than twice as much chance of landing the top pick as we would of landing the 9th pick.

If we finish with 7th worst odds...

and 3 teams in the 8-15 range end up in the Top 3...

We'd pick 9th?

Interesting math.

Worst-case scenario right now is #10.   Not saying it's likely, but it's certainly possible. 

I'm right about where we can finish.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/NBA_draft_lottery

I know I shouldn't trust Wikipedia, but according to them, the worst we can do if we finish seventh worst is the ninth pick. 

The number nine pick, by the way, has an almost absurd success rate, historically.  The bust rate is very low, and there are even some stars thrown in:

Here are some notables:

Dirk Nowitzki, Tracey McGrady, Shawn Marion, Otis Thorpe, Joakim Noah, Amare Stoudemire, Dale Ellis, Rolando Blackman, Charles Oakley, Derrick McKey, Demar Derozan, Andre Drummond, Andre Iguodala, Rony Seikaly, Stacey Augmon, Clarence Weatherspoon, Gordon Hayward, Kemba Walker, Rodney Rogers.


In any event, if we win all the rest of our games, the chances of getting a number one pick is much higher than the chances of getting a number nine pick.  Getting lower than ninth, as far as I can tell, isn't possible at all. 

[fairweatherfan]

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/NBA_draft_lottery

I know I shouldn't trust Wikipedia, but according to them, the worst we can do if we finish seventh worst is the ninth pick. 

The number nine pick, by the way, has an almost absurd success rate, historically.  The bust rate is very low, and there are even some stars thrown in:

Here are some notables:

Dirk Nowitzki, Tracey McGrady, Shawn Marion, Otis Thorpe, Joakim Noah, Amare Stoudemire, Dale Ellis, Rolando Blackman, Charles Oakley, Derrick McKey, Demar Derozan, Andre Drummond, Andre Iguodala, Rony Seikaly, Stacey Augmon, Clarence Weatherspoon, Gordon Hayward, Kemba Walker, Rodney Rogers.


In any event, if we win all the rest of our games, the chances of getting a number one pick is much higher than the chances of getting a number nine pick.  Getting lower than ninth, as far as I can tell, isn't possible at all.

The chart's a little misleading, there's a chance the #7 team finishes 10th, it's just extraordinarily low, well below 1/10th of 1%.  If there's a number on the chart, it's a possible outcome, the number being .000 just means it's really really unlikely.

[Celtics18]

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/NBA_draft_lottery

I know I shouldn't trust Wikipedia, but according to them, the worst we can do if we finish seventh worst is the ninth pick. 

The number nine pick, by the way, has an almost absurd success rate, historically.  The bust rate is very low, and there are even some stars thrown in:

Here are some notables:

Dirk Nowitzki, Tracey McGrady, Shawn Marion, Otis Thorpe, Joakim Noah, Amare Stoudemire, Dale Ellis, Rolando Blackman, Charles Oakley, Derrick McKey, Demar Derozan, Andre Drummond, Andre Iguodala, Rony Seikaly, Stacey Augmon, Clarence Weatherspoon, Gordon Hayward, Kemba Walker, Rodney Rogers.


In any event, if we win all the rest of our games, the chances of getting a number one pick is much higher than the chances of getting a number nine pick.  Getting lower than ninth, as far as I can tell, isn't possible at all.

The chart's a little misleading, there's a chance the #7 team finishes 10th, it's just extraordinarily low, well below 1/10th of 1%.  If there's a number on the chart, it's a possible outcome, the number being .000 just means it's really really unlikely.

Oh no!!!!! We are stuck with Doug McDermott!!!!!

And, according to LarBrd33, it's all my fault. 

[Celtics18]

I, however, would not be one bit surprised if Dante Exum ends up being outside the top ten players from the 2014 draft.

This makes no sense to me. Are you just being contrarian because we didn't nab an 8th seed?

Maybe a little bit, but the Exum hype just doesn't make sense to me.  Nobody has seen him play against top notch competition because he hasn't played against top notch competition. 

Most of the hype seems to be based on a couple of International High School All Star games that he played well in.  It just seems risky to me to put so many eggs into the basket of a kid who is as unknown an entity as Dante Exum.

I think he and his agent have done a fantastic job setting up the mystique of Dante Exum.  He's kind of like the "insiders" pick.  It makes the average fan feel really smart to like Exum, even though there's very little concrete evidence about how he will play against much, much better competition than he has played against.

If he turns out to be an instant star, then, great, it's a cool story.

Pho explained the draft process better than I could (i.e. it's a serious business when you look beyond the Chad Ford Hype Train), but I do think it's interesting how downplayed international ball is compared to the NCAA on this blog, perhaps for obvious reasons.

Consider: in the same thread, we've seen Aaron Gordon compared to everyone from LeBron to Bruce Bowen on the back of his successful March Madness performance (the smallest of small samples, which ended in a loss), while we've had other posters opine that Exum is destined for the Lakers because of his 'flashy' play and one brutally out-of-context quote.

But, Dante Exum isn't even playing high level international ball.  He plays in an Australian League that nobody sees against competition that isn't anywhere near the top level European clubs.

The hype is all based on play a year ago when he was playing against other eighteen year olds and shined in one high profile All Star game and did well in an under 19 National team tournament.

As opposed to the NCAA, which of course features the best of the best playing each other night in and night out. Oh, and a single tournament. 

As far as "nobody sees", what you really mean is "the general public can't easily hunt it down" and "triboy16f can't get unreasonably excited about random overseas prospects as easily as the ones that play in the States."


I will bet you one whole TP that Exum is drafted in the top 4.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pNRGoik0q58

I found some highlights of the guys Dante's been playing against since we saw him at the Nike Hoop Summit. 

That looks a step down from Andrew Wiggins and Jabari Parker's high school games. 

[D.o.s.]

Convincing and compelling. I have watched that single 5 minute youtube clip and now I am convinced that he has only played against scrubs and that all the evidence to the contrary must've been planted by his agent to mislead me.

I watched another youtube clip, and now I am convinced that Aaron Gordon should go first overall.

I watched a third youtube video, and now I think 9/11 was an inside job.

[Celtics18]

Convincing and compelling. I have watched that single 5 minute youtube clip and now I am convinced that he has only played against scrubs and that all the evidence to the contrary must've been planted by his agent to mislead me.

I watched another youtube clip, and now I am convinced that Aaron Gordon should go first overall.

I watched a third youtube video, and now I think 9/11 was an inside job.

I realize he's very young, I realize he's got a ton of potential, and I realize that the DraftNiks love him, but that is the league he plays in.