Parker to Stay in College?

[indeedproceed]

Poke fun at me all you want. Paul Pierce came out a junior, got selected 10th and yet still made $184 million in his career.

I wonder if Pierce is thinking, at his age, "wow, I should have come out as a freshman or sophomore because I could have made a couple million dollars more." Or if asked does Pierce say, "I am happy I stayed a couple extra years and coming out later wasn't detrimental to me and my overall money earning ability."

BTW, one of the players Parker is compared to an awful lot is Paul Pierce. If Parker reaches his full potential, by the end of his career, whether he came out now or later, it is probably not going to make a huge difference in what he has earned, if anything.

but Paul Pierce was never projected as a likely top 3 pick until his junior year (when he fell to 10th).  That isn't the case for Jabari Parker.

Yerp.

Nick you're really arguing that delaying your professional career a year doesn't decrease your expected lifetime earnings? Uncertainty and risk exist but the reduced expectation of earnings is a very real thing. If a player is going to be a first round draft pick every year he's not getting paid to play basketball is a year's worth of lost earnings guaranteed.

The fact that we don't know the length and overall quality of his future career doesn't overwhelm the power of getting paid when you're 19/20 instead of 20/21 or 21/22, etc.

Exactly.

And BTW, Garnett (315 million) and Bryant (280 million) are by far the largest career earners of the active players.  You know two guys that never even went to college.

And yet if those two guys had gone to college and earned 10% less than they have, would it make a difference to them?

Not everyone measures happiness and success in dollars and cents.

But leaving school now is the smarter choice if he wants the best chance to maximize his earning potential. That's sorted out now?

[nickagneta]

For those asking, no, I am not arguing that starting your career a year later doesn't have the chance of possibly earning less. All I am arguing is it isn't a certainty and regardless of whether Parker comes out this year, next or the year after, that if he is as good as some think and doesn't get injured, that the possible reduced total income isn't going to make a difference.

If in the end he comes out now and earns over the years $200 million or comes out next year and in the end only earns $195 million, does it matter to Parker?

Is there risk in not coming out now because he could be injured or not live up to expectations next year and be drafted slightly lower? Sure. Is there also risk that if he knows he isn't prepared to be a pro that going pro might cause him problems that effect his bottom line bargaining power? Sure. It goes both ways.

Ultimately I think the decision should be for a player to go pro when he feels he is ready and not before. If he is good enough, the money will be there and he will make enough to make sure his children's children should never have to work, regardless of what year he came out.

BTW, how many cases have there been of players coming forward and stating they should have come out earlier to make more money? Is this just a fan thing because I don't see pros making statements complaining about not making as much money as possible because they came out as juniors or sophomores or seniors?

[Fafnir]

You guys keep using the successful players with very long careers as examples of "not the worst thing". That's an extremely poor way to look at the downsides, guys who last 15 years and are paid like all-stars are fine no matter when they come out. The difference is when things go wrong with your career.

Where would Greg Oden be if he'd gone back for another year at Ohio State? How much money would Gerald Green or Kwame Brown have lost out on had they gone to college for a few years?

[Snakehead]

You guys keep using the successful players with very long careers as examples of "not the worst thing". That's an extremely poor way to look at the downsides, guys who last 15 years and are paid like all-stars are fine no matter when they come out. The difference is when things go wrong with your career.

Where would Greg Oden be if he'd gone back for another year at Ohio State? How much money would Gerald Green or Kwame Brown have lost out on had they gone to college for a few years?

You say "you guys" but I think almost all of us are on the same page.

Using Paul Pierce, a HOFer, as a example as if he is run of the mill is ridiculous.

[nickagneta]

You guys keep using the successful players with very long careers as examples of "not the worst thing". That's an extremely poor way to look at the downsides, guys who last 15 years and are paid like all-stars are fine no matter when they come out. The difference is when things go wrong with your career.

Where would Greg Oden be if he'd gone back for another year at Ohio State? How much money would Gerald Green or Kwame Brown have lost out on had they gone to college for a few years?

You say "you guys" but I think almost all of us are on the same page.

Using Paul Pierce, a HOFer, as a example as if he is run of the mill is ridiculous.

I'm sorry. Next time I compare Parker's situation to someone I will compare them to someone of a much different size and body type, a player with completely different skills, a player that plays a completely different position, a player that wasn't highly regarded coming out of school and who was chosen in the 2nd round because clearly, that's the type of player I need to use in my comparison of Jabari Parker to make my point.

And BTW, just because all "you guys" are on the same page, doesn't mean you aren't all wrong.

[indeedproceed]

You guys keep using the successful players with very long careers as examples of "not the worst thing". That's an extremely poor way to look at the downsides, guys who last 15 years and are paid like all-stars are fine no matter when they come out. The difference is when things go wrong with your career.

Where would Greg Oden be if he'd gone back for another year at Ohio State? How much money would Gerald Green or Kwame Brown have lost out on had they gone to college for a few years?

You say "you guys" but I think almost all of us are on the same page.

Using Paul Pierce, a HOFer, as a example as if he is run of the mill is ridiculous.

I'm sorry. Next time I compare Parker's situation to someone I will compare them to someone of a much different size and body type, a player with completely different skills, a player that plays a completely different position, a player that wasn't highly regarded coming out of school and who was chosen in the 2nd round because clearly, that's the type of player I need to use in my comparison of Jabari Parker to make my point.

Well, taking a player taken 10th overall after his junior season who has had a remarkably healthy, lucky and prolific career when we're talking about risk and probabilities isn't really accurate. I'm not sure how that's really a sticking point. Sure there are some similarities, but they're not exactly carbon copies of each other. Carmelo is probably a better comparison, but he was a more sure thing as a prospect. Durant, maybe, I guess.

[fairweatherfan]

You guys keep using the successful players with very long careers as examples of "not the worst thing". That's an extremely poor way to look at the downsides, guys who last 15 years and are paid like all-stars are fine no matter when they come out. The difference is when things go wrong with your career.

Where would Greg Oden be if he'd gone back for another year at Ohio State? How much money would Gerald Green or Kwame Brown have lost out on had they gone to college for a few years?

You say "you guys" but I think almost all of us are on the same page.

Using Paul Pierce, a HOFer, as a example as if he is run of the mill is ridiculous.

I'm sorry. Next time I compare Parker's situation to someone I will compare them to someone of a much different size and body type, a player with completely different skills, a player that plays a completely different position, a player that wasn't highly regarded coming out of school and who was chosen in the 2nd round because clearly, that's the type of player I need to use in my comparison of Jabari Parker to make my point.

And BTW, just because all "you guys" are on the same page, doesn't mean you aren't all wrong.

To me your argument boils down to "if everything works out fine, everything will work out fine".  Which is true, but what most people are saying is that everything might not work out well for Parker, and if that's the case it's far better to be monetizing his very valuable and fairly temporary abilities as soon as possible.

I think ultimately it's Parker's life and his choice, and if he genuinely enjoys and values playing at Duke the intangible benefit to his wellbeing and maturation could outweigh any dollars lost.  There's even a chance that staying would lead to making more money in the long run.  But as a pure probability play, staying in school is more likely to hurt his earnings.  Sure if he makes $200 million that difference will be relatively small (although as others have mentioned endorsements are an underrated factor), but the farther his career winds up from a best-case scenario, the more staying another year hurts him.

[Moranis]

Kenny Satterfield.  Guard from the University of Cincinnati.  Freshman in 99-00 and Soph in 00-01.  Entered the NBA draft after his Sophomore year and was the 53rd pick in the draft and out of the NBA after two years.  He made 845k total for his NBA career.  There was talk that had he entered the draft out of high school he might have been a first round pick.  Probably would have made a huge difference in his life.

[Moranis]

http://www.basketballinsiders.com/10-players-who-shouldnt-have-stayed-in-school/

Ten players that hurt themselves by going back to school.

[bdm860]

You guys keep using the successful players with very long careers as examples of "not the worst thing". That's an extremely poor way to look at the downsides, guys who last 15 years and are paid like all-stars are fine no matter when they come out. The difference is when things go wrong with your career.

Where would Greg Oden be if he'd gone back for another year at Ohio State? How much money would Gerald Green or Kwame Brown have lost out on had they gone to college for a few years?

Do you think only negative things can happen going to college?  Is there's no possibility for positive development?

While Greg Oden probably has knee injuries either way (although you can argue he won't), a guy like Shaun Livingston who has a freak knee injury, if he's in a different place, maybe he's at $80m+ in career earnings instead of $25m+.

You can definitely argue Kwame Brown or Gerald Green are more successful with a little more discipline and development.  One year in college, maybe Green doesn't spend 2 in Europe.   Maybe Kwame Brown becomes at least a solid starter, instead of a scrub.

It's a hypothetical argument for sure, but I don't think you can definitely say college only makes things worse.

While everyone points to extremes, we should be pointing to a guy like Marvin Williams.  He went to college for one year, when he was likely a top 5 pick if he went pro.  Despite going to a great D1 program, his career has sucked.  It probably would have sucked just as much had he gone pro straight out of high school.  So he'd be at maybe $50m right now instead of $55m in career earnings.  Do you think he's sitting around saying that 1 year of college was a mistake?  Probably didn't make a difference in his career.

Another year in college likely doesn't make a difference, though it could have  positive or negative results.  Impossible to know for sure, but fun to discuss.

[D.o.s.]

You guys keep using the successful players with very long careers as examples of "not the worst thing". That's an extremely poor way to look at the downsides, guys who last 15 years and are paid like all-stars are fine no matter when they come out. The difference is when things go wrong with your career.

Where would Greg Oden be if he'd gone back for another year at Ohio State? How much money would Gerald Green or Kwame Brown have lost out on had they gone to college for a few years?

Do you think only negative things can happen going to college?  Is there's no possibility for positive development?

While Greg Oden probably has knee injuries either way (although you can argue he won't), a guy like Shaun Livingston who has a freak knee injury, if he's in a different place, maybe he's at $80m+ in career earnings instead of $25m+.

You can definitely argue Kwame Brown or Gerald Green are more successful with a little more discipline and development.  One year in college, maybe Green doesn't spend 2 in Europe.   Maybe Kwame Brown becomes at least a solid starter, instead of a scrub.

It's a hypothetical argument for sure, but I don't think you can definitely say college only makes things worse.

While everyone points to extremes, we should be pointing to a guy like Marvin Williams.  He went to college for one year, when he was likely a top 5 pick if he went pro.  Despite going to a great D1 program, his career has sucked.  It probably would have sucked just as much had he gone pro straight out of high school.  So he'd be at maybe $50m right now instead of $55m in career earnings.  Do you think he's sitting around saying that 1 year of college was a mistake?  Probably didn't make a difference in his career.

Another year in college likely doesn't make a difference, though it could have  positive or negative results.  Impossible to know for sure, but fun to discuss.

The bolded isn't true, though. It has been shown to make a difference -- in total earnings, in player development, in the strength of the employment monopoly/cartel relationship that defines the NCAA and the NBA.

Not that there's anything wrong with staying in college if a player wants to stay in college -- I don't think any one's saying that. But to act like it "ain't no thing" is disingenuous.

[nickagneta]

http://www.basketballinsiders.com/10-players-who-shouldnt-have-stayed-in-school/

Ten players that hurt themselves by going back to school.

I'm pretty sure the list of players that didn't hurt themselves by staying in school is pretty impressive.

[nickagneta]

Another thing to consider is, does Parker need the money? What is his family's financial background? I know most probably adhere to the stereotype of an athlete in college playing basketball on a scholarship comes from a poor background, but that isn't always the case.

If Parker comes from a middle class or better background, there may not be this overwhelming need for him to go pro to help his family financially. It could be his parents are advising him to stay because they value education or had great college experiences that they feel they want their son to have.

Who knows. But as I have repeatedly said, he should come out when he is ready, not when he feels he should because he needs to maximize his earnings. Money isn't everything in life.

[bdm860]

Kenny Satterfield.  Guard from the University of Cincinnati.  Freshman in 99-00 and Soph in 00-01.  Entered the NBA draft after his Sophomore year and was the 53rd pick in the draft and out of the NBA after two years.  He made 845k total for his NBA career.  There was talk that had he entered the draft out of high school he might have been a first round pick.  Probably would have made a huge difference in his life.

While for busts like him, a few hundred thousand makes a big difference.  I think you're wrong if you think things would be any different.

Leon Smith was ranked higher than him in that recruiting class (though not by all sources),  and was drafted with the last pick of the first round (doubtful a 6'2" high school pg goes higher than a 6'10" big man out of high school).  I think Satterfield is still going in the 2nd round, still making around the same money.

Korleone Young went pro out of high school the year before Satterfield would have, taken in the 2nd round and made under 300k.  Maybe Satterfield did make the right decision afterall.

[nickagneta]

The bolded isn't true, though. It has been shown to make a difference -- in total earnings, in player development, in the strength of the employment monopoly/cartel relationship that defines the NCAA and the NBA.

Would love to see the in depth studies that show this. Got links?