What if we get the #1 pick would you trade it?

[PhoSita]

This a Red Auerbach type question to me. Didn't Red trade the right to Joe Barry Carroll (the 1st of 2nd overall pick) for Robert Parish and the 3rd pick, with which he took McHale?

If I had the #1 overall pick I would absolutely consider trading down, if:
A) I was sold on the guy at #1 being heads and shoulders above picks #2, 3 and perhaps 4 or 5.

B) I could also get another solid chip out of the move.

For example, hypothetical: Philly ends up with the 3rd pick, Boston has the #1. Philly has it's heart set on Embiid, I actually prefer Park or Wiggins, one of which would be available with the 3rd pick.

To Philly: #1 pick
To Boston: Nerlens Noel and the 3rd pick

Done deal.

If Philly thinks Embiid is their Franchise guy, they do this deal.

It's Ok with me, because I also think Parker or Wiggins are "my" franchise guy...     

You can mix and match the players, but if I had the #1 overall, I might "seek" a trade if I thought the "assumed the 1,2,3 picks were over hyped...

Noel could very well end up being the best player from the last draft and on par with a player in the 8-12 range in this draft, so that would be an amazing deal for the Celtics.

[Smokeeye123]

Yeah, depends on what we'd get back. If I was getting Kevin Love, Cousins, Aldridge, etc. back I'd consider it.

[celticpride1]

Oh the draft lottery cant come soon enough. Tanking is just so hard to watch.

[pearljammer10]

If we got the number one pick I would keep it. Any other pick I am looking to trade.

[Donoghus]

I'd most likely keep it but certainly keep my ears open for offers. 

[ScoobyDoo]

Exactly PhoSita and that's precisely why I test the waters. In 1980 (I think) Red was able to pick off Golden State because they had their "heart set" on Joe Barely Cares.

If you have the #1 pick you may well be able to do a trade with the teams in draft positions 2-6, or higher, if it made sense, for the same reason. This allows you to maximize your haul.

For argument's sake, and for fun, let's assume:

A) Boston gets the kind of draft luck in 2014 that evaded us in the Tim Duncan and Kevin Durant drafts.

B) One or more of the teams in draft positions 2-6, have their hearts set on a player they feel they can only get with that #1 - it doesn't really matter who "that player" is that they want - they just want the #1 pick to make sure they get that player...

C) We feel there are players at positions 2-6 who will have almost as much, or perhaps more impact, than the guy chosen at #1.

For example:
Julius Randle: better career at PF than Embiid at Center
Exum better career at PG/SG than Wiggins at SF
Mchale better career at PF than JBC at Center...

D) Draft order is

1. Boston
2. Milwaukee
3. Philly
4. Utah
5. Lakers
6. Sacramento

Milwaukee Deal:
Boston's #1 to Milwaukee for Larry Sanders and the 2nd. Milwaukee wants to dump him, they like Embiid at #1 at to replace Sanders, with Henson at PF. We use our Trade exception or send Bass / Bogans and filler to make the numbers work...

With the second pick, we take Jabari Parker

Philly Deal:
They have a lot of cap space and want to go after Asik or Aldrige at center, figure they can draft a good PF with their 10th pick to replace Nerlens Noel. They want Wiggins with the 1st. 
 
Boston send the #1, maybe the 17th to Philly for Nerlens Noel and the 3rd. We take Embiid, Parker or Exum with the 3rd. Steal Asik from Philly via trade with Morey...

Utah Deal:
Boston send the #1 and Bass / Bogans to Utah for Gordon Heyward and the 4th. We take Exum, Smart, Randle or Vonleh with the 4th.

Lakers Deal:
We never do a deal with the Lakers - ever.     

Sacramento:
Boston Sends #1 to Sacramento for McLemore and Sacto's next year's unprotected 1st round pick. We take Vonleh or Gordon.

Notes
I think after the 3rd or 4th picks the returns might not make it worthwhile for us - but they are certainly worthwhile trading down to the 2nd or 3rd pick to me.

I agree with regards to Nerlens Noel. I think he's going to be an impact player on defense at first - but I think he will also average 12-15 a night in time.

I secretly hope that as he grew up in Boston and is a rabid Celtics fan, that he will be in Green in about 4-5 years from now.   


       

[D.o.s.]

This is the part where we point out that Paul Pierce was a rabid Laker fan growing up.

Anyway, TP Scooby--definitely some entertaining and thought provoking ideas. My personal favorite for this one was the Webber/Hardaway trade: Would anyone here not do that--trade down from 1 to 3 for that kind of reward?

Of course, it's highly unlikely that we'd be able to grab that sort of haul nowadays.

[saltlover]

D) Draft order is

1. Boston
2. Milwaukee
3. Philly
4. Utah
5. Lakers
6. Sacramento

     

In the above scenario, in which Boston is the only non-Top 3 team to win the lottery, Orlando would pick 4th, and everyone else slides down a spot.

[ScoobyDoo]

True re Pierce, but I'm hoping Philly isn't for Noel what Boston turned into for Pierce...     

Thanks for the TP D.o.s!

Thanks for the clarity on draft order:

Boston sends our #1 and Gerald Wallace to Orlando for Aaron Afflalo, Kyle O'Quinn and the 4th.

I'm not sure I'd do that trade but as before, if my thinking is that Noah Vonleh has the size, length and motor to be more of a factor at center than Embiid... 

[libermaniac]

If the trade were Joe Barry Carroll (#1) for #3 pick (McHale) and Robert Parish, I'd probably do it 

[timobusa]

LOL. NO

[crimson_stallion]

I would not take back a bad contract in return for a #1 pick in such a great draft, no way. The only way I would consider doing that is if the team doing the trade is offering an elite talent that is either:

a) A top-teir superstar (Carmello, Lebron, Durant, Paul) that you can build a contender around right now - unlikely any of these players would be available except maybe Carmello.

b) A very young All-Star with super-high potential (DeMarcus Cousins, Paul George, Anthony Davis) that you can build your contender around two years from now.  Again, very slim chance that any of those offers would be made (aside from maybe Cousins). 

Even then I wouldn't necessarilly say yes in all cases - I'd still have to think about it.

For me to really have an interest in trading the #1 pick it would have to be to lottery team who really desperately wants certain player (such as Embiid, Parker, Wiggins) and is willing to trade their own top 4 pick while also offering us extra value on top, such as:

a) Absorbing Wallace's contact (or sending us expiring contracts in return)
b) An additional top 12 lottery pick from this year
c) A future future 1st Rounder
d) A good role player who fills a key need - such as a Korver type shooter or an Okafor type rim protector

In this case I would do the deal because I would honestly be just as happy taking any top 4 pick this year this year - Embiid, Parker, Wiggins or Exum.  I think every one of those guys has sky high potential and would fit a need on this team, so to me any top 4 pick has the same value.  To me a top 4 pick plus one of the above assets is more valuable than a #1 pick on it's own. 

But aside from these scenarios I would not trade that #1 pick, period.

[crimson_stallion]

True re Pierce, but I'm hoping Philly isn't for Noel what Boston turned into for Pierce...     

Thanks for the TP D.o.s!

Thanks for the clarity on draft order:

Boston sends our #1 and Gerald Wallace to Orlando for Aaron Afflalo, Kyle O'Quinn and the 4th.

I'm not sure I'd do that trade but as before, if my thinking is that Noah Vonleh has the size, length and motor to be more of a factor at center than Embiid...

Yeah, I would do that trade in a heartbeat,  but I think it's very one sided in our favour.

For a lottery team (who probably wants cap space and young assets) to take on Wallace's contract is a lot to ask for a trade up from a #4 pick to a #1 pick in a draft like this...but it's within reason and they may do it.

For them to then throwing in an 18 -20 PPG scorer and a solid young prospect on top of that...unlikely I think. 

But if they did offer all that, then I'd be all over it like a fly on honey

[ScoobyDoo]

Point taken Crimson regarding Orlando probably not wanting Wallace's contract.

But that's where it gets interesting and why these trades are driven as much be emotion / impulse to a certain extent as they are just from an X's O's standpoint as a GM

For me, if I'm Orlando and I think Embiid and Oladipo can be the cornerstone of a championship team for 10+ years, I might consider taking Wallace's contract. Why? He only has two more years, I eat his contract this year, the next he's trade bait as an expiring, maybe I buy him out at the trade deadline.

So in theory I'm looking at Wallace for 18 months - but I'm most interested in the Embiid / Oladipo due for 10+ years - of which I will have 8.5+ years of once I move Wallace...

And that's where it gets emotional for GM's - they think they have the golden goose and they're willing to pay a high price for it. Like Golden State di for Joe Barry Carroll (Parish & McHale). Which side of the trade wins is the one who ends up with the best player, that's where the rubber hits the road.

Ideally both teams win.

maybe Orlando gets Embiid, he is the next Olajuwan and he and Embiid are a great combo. Because Embbid pans out so well, the magic trade Vujecic for Aflalo's replacement and fill in teh gaps from there.

For Boston, Aflalo ends up a great fit at the two with Rondo, we end up taking Julius Randle with the fourth, pair him with Asik via trade. Asik's our anchor on the glass and defensively, Randle turns into a left handed version of Karl Malone in the open court NBA...

Who knows right - but like Wyc saad, we could see some fireworks come June!