How Inconsistent is Jeff Green, really?

[KGs Knee]

What sticks out most is just how absurdly good Jordan and Bird were those years. Pierce is the only other even close.

63% of games in a season over 30 points is nuts.

It's a pointless comparison though.

[droopdog7]

Folks seem to be relying on the mean when the median may be more appropriate.

[PhoSita]

I don't see how you can characterize that as 'terribly inefficient'.

....

So, which Jeff Green are you talking about?  The healthy one or the obviously injured one?

Note I said he's "not terribly efficient" not that he's "terribly inefficient."  Jeff's a lukewarm cup of tea; not really on one extreme or another.

That's really the point I've always made with Green, by the way -- though it's far from a novel opinion: when Jeff isn't scoring in bunches, either because he's got a favorable speed / size matchup or because he's hot from outside, he doesn't bring much to the table.

The inconsistency of scoring is to be expected because Jeff is just not THAT talented / skilled a scorer, and while he's got great athleticism and uncommon speed for his size, he doesn't often physically overpower opponents, unless there's a really glaring mismatch.  I'm not sure that Jeff always brings consistent effort and / or focus, though, particularly on defense, and that troubles me much more.


As for your argument about healthy Green vs unhealthy Green, that seems to be one you're fond of making.  Last year it was recovering-from-surgery-Green vs healthy Green.  This year he's got a shoulder injury, I guess.  Injuries are part of the game, and if Jeff spends substantial portions of each season playing at a lower level, then that's fair to take into account as a weakness of his.

[mmmmm]

I don't see how you can characterize that as 'terribly inefficient'.

....

So, which Jeff Green are you talking about?  The healthy one or the obviously injured one?

Note I said he's "not terribly efficient" not that he's "terribly inefficient."  Jeff's a lukewarm cup of tea; not really on one extreme or another.

That's really the point I've always made with Green, by the way -- though it's far from a novel opinion: when Jeff isn't scoring in bunches, either because he's got a favorable speed / size matchup or because he's hot from outside, he doesn't bring much to the table.

The inconsistency of scoring is to be expected because Jeff is just not THAT talented / skilled a scorer, and while he's got great athleticism and uncommon speed for his size, he doesn't often physically overpower opponents, unless there's a really glaring mismatch.  I'm not sure that Jeff always brings consistent effort and / or focus, though, particularly on defense, and that troubles me much more.


As for your argument about healthy Green vs unhealthy Green, that seems to be one you're fond of making.  Last year it was recovering-from-surgery-Green vs healthy Green.  This year he's got a shoulder injury, I guess.  Injuries are part of the game, and if Jeff spends substantial portions of each season playing at a lower level, then that's fair to take into account as a weakness of his.

So, because the facts don't suite your assertions, you resort to dismissing their relevance.  Okay.

I'm not 'fond' of the _facts_ that Green (a) did indeed miss a whole season after having his chest cut open or that (b) did indeed injure his shoulder this year.   They are simply the reality.

As to whether Green should be playing through this particular injury, keep in mind that our only other SF, Wallace, is already lost for the season.   I suppose you would prefer we had Chris Johnson and Chris Babb playing all the minutes at SF since, after all, tanking has always been your stated preferred strategy.  So you are consistent.

[LilRip]

i've come to accept Green as a role player, who has occasional moments of brilliance.

If he scored 10-15ppg nearly every night, occasionally going 20 and occasionally going lower, this wouldn't even be a topic. It's only because he can score 40 in certain nights that make his 10-15 point games seem more of a blemish than they truly are.

[D.o.s.]

You guys lost me when you brought in the math.

Can I get a HotSportsTake instead?

[sed522002]

You guys lost me when you brought in the math.

Can I get a HotSportsTake instead?

Yep way over my head..felt like I was in Statistics class again..lol. Quickly unsubscribed from the thread 

[kozlodoev]

You guys lost me when you brought in the math.

Can I get a HotSportsTake instead?

Yep way over my head..felt like I was in Statistics class again..lol. Quickly unsubscribed from the thread 

Sorry about that. I may need an intervention -- someone sent me a message asking whether I were Kirk Minihane, and I think they were serious 

[D.o.s.]

But is there a stat that measures Green's Will To Win^TM?

[Roy H.]

I don't see how you can characterize that as 'terribly inefficient'.

....

So, which Jeff Green are you talking about?  The healthy one or the obviously injured one?

Note I said he's "not terribly efficient" not that he's "terribly inefficient."  Jeff's a lukewarm cup of tea; not really on one extreme or another.

That's really the point I've always made with Green, by the way -- though it's far from a novel opinion: when Jeff isn't scoring in bunches, either because he's got a favorable speed / size matchup or because he's hot from outside, he doesn't bring much to the table.

The inconsistency of scoring is to be expected because Jeff is just not THAT talented / skilled a scorer, and while he's got great athleticism and uncommon speed for his size, he doesn't often physically overpower opponents, unless there's a really glaring mismatch.  I'm not sure that Jeff always brings consistent effort and / or focus, though, particularly on defense, and that troubles me much more.


As for your argument about healthy Green vs unhealthy Green, that seems to be one you're fond of making.  Last year it was recovering-from-surgery-Green vs healthy Green.  This year he's got a shoulder injury, I guess.  Injuries are part of the game, and if Jeff spends substantial portions of each season playing at a lower level, then that's fair to take into account as a weakness of his.

So, because the facts don't suite your assertions, you resort to dismissing their relevance.  Okay.

I'm not 'fond' of the _facts_ that Green (a) did indeed miss a whole season after having his chest cut open or that (b) did indeed injure his shoulder this year.   They are simply the reality.

As to whether Green should be playing through this particular injury, keep in mind that our only other SF, Wallace, is already lost for the season.   I suppose you would prefer we had Chris Johnson and Chris Babb playing all the minutes at SF since, after all, tanking has always been your stated preferred strategy.  So you are consistent.

I think you missed his point.

You can't judge a player based solely on how they perform at their peak performance.  Over an 82 game season, every player is going to sustain nagging injuries.  The ability to sustain a certain level of play as one's body wears down is something that should be evaluated.

Also, I'm not sure that it's fair to blame this January 13 shoulder injury, which was described as a pretty minor thing.  Green's FG% has been below 40% for three straight months.  Even prior to January 13, his efficiency was pretty spotty.  Going back nearly a full month, from December 16 to January 11, Green's FG% was 41.5%.  His 3PT% was 30.8% during that stretch (which again, doesn't include any games after January 11, the date of his shoulder injury.)

It seems likely, then, that the shoulder injury isn't the cause of his dip in efficiency.

[sed522002]

You guys lost me when you brought in the math.

Can I get a HotSportsTake instead?

Yep way over my head..felt like I was in Statistics class again..lol. Quickly unsubscribed from the thread 

Sorry about that. I may need an intervention -- someone sent me a message asking whether I were Kirk Minihane, and I think they were serious 

LOL!! I take my hat off to you guys though..you know your stuff.

[Mr October]

Scorers / shooter are going to have good nights and bad nights. The better ones can at least recover from a bad half and be effective in the second.

With jeff green, i dont like that if he has a bad first quarter, that more often than not means he is going to be terrible the rest of the game. Bad shooting, combined with bad rebounding, his lack of creation on offense just compounds itself. I expect better than 41% fg shooting from an athletic 6-9 small forward.

Even on good nights i kind of cant stand that when he gets a defensive rebound the ball sticks to his hand and he dribbles it up the court. Every once in a while a gets the spectacular coast to coast play, but most of the time it just eats clock as he ends up giving up the ball somewhere above the 3 point line.

At least his above average defense remains consistent.

[mmmmm]

I don't see how you can characterize that as 'terribly inefficient'.

....

So, which Jeff Green are you talking about?  The healthy one or the obviously injured one?

Note I said he's "not terribly efficient" not that he's "terribly inefficient."  Jeff's a lukewarm cup of tea; not really on one extreme or another.

That's really the point I've always made with Green, by the way -- though it's far from a novel opinion: when Jeff isn't scoring in bunches, either because he's got a favorable speed / size matchup or because he's hot from outside, he doesn't bring much to the table.

The inconsistency of scoring is to be expected because Jeff is just not THAT talented / skilled a scorer, and while he's got great athleticism and uncommon speed for his size, he doesn't often physically overpower opponents, unless there's a really glaring mismatch.  I'm not sure that Jeff always brings consistent effort and / or focus, though, particularly on defense, and that troubles me much more.


As for your argument about healthy Green vs unhealthy Green, that seems to be one you're fond of making.  Last year it was recovering-from-surgery-Green vs healthy Green.  This year he's got a shoulder injury, I guess.  Injuries are part of the game, and if Jeff spends substantial portions of each season playing at a lower level, then that's fair to take into account as a weakness of his.

So, because the facts don't suite your assertions, you resort to dismissing their relevance.  Okay.

I'm not 'fond' of the _facts_ that Green (a) did indeed miss a whole season after having his chest cut open or that (b) did indeed injure his shoulder this year.   They are simply the reality.

As to whether Green should be playing through this particular injury, keep in mind that our only other SF, Wallace, is already lost for the season.   I suppose you would prefer we had Chris Johnson and Chris Babb playing all the minutes at SF since, after all, tanking has always been your stated preferred strategy.  So you are consistent.

I think you missed his point.

You can't judge a player based solely on how they perform at their peak performance.  Over an 82 game season, every player is going to sustain nagging injuries.  The ability to sustain a certain level of play as one's body wears down is something that should be evaluated.

Also, I'm not sure that it's fair to blame this January 13 shoulder injury, which was described as a pretty minor thing.  Green's FG% has been below 40% for three straight months.  Even prior to January 13, his efficiency was pretty spotty.  Going back nearly a full month, from December 16 to January 11, Green's FG% was 41.5%.  His 3PT% was 30.8% during that stretch (which again, doesn't include any games after January 11, the date of his shoulder injury.)

It seems likely, then, that the shoulder injury isn't the cause of his dip in efficiency.

As Fafnir pointed out earlier, FG% is not really a very useful measure.  eFG is a much better barometer of shooting efficiency from the floor.

I think the fact that, as I pointed out earlier, Green's eFG dropped like a rock immediately upon that injury and through the next few weeks is pretty compelling that, yeah, it DID have an effect.

Again, going into that game, Green's eFG was just a hair under 50%.   The immediate month-and a half from Dec 1 through Jan 12 it was also 49.8%.  So no, it was not already declining.

It dropped to under 40% over the period from that game (1/13) through Feb 2.   That's a huge deviation.

[Fan from VT]

I don't see how you can characterize that as 'terribly inefficient'.

....

So, which Jeff Green are you talking about?  The healthy one or the obviously injured one?

Note I said he's "not terribly efficient" not that he's "terribly inefficient."  Jeff's a lukewarm cup of tea; not really on one extreme or another.

That's really the point I've always made with Green, by the way -- though it's far from a novel opinion: when Jeff isn't scoring in bunches, either because he's got a favorable speed / size matchup or because he's hot from outside, he doesn't bring much to the table.

The inconsistency of scoring is to be expected because Jeff is just not THAT talented / skilled a scorer, and while he's got great athleticism and uncommon speed for his size, he doesn't often physically overpower opponents, unless there's a really glaring mismatch.  I'm not sure that Jeff always brings consistent effort and / or focus, though, particularly on defense, and that troubles me much more.


As for your argument about healthy Green vs unhealthy Green, that seems to be one you're fond of making.  Last year it was recovering-from-surgery-Green vs healthy Green.  This year he's got a shoulder injury, I guess.  Injuries are part of the game, and if Jeff spends substantial portions of each season playing at a lower level, then that's fair to take into account as a weakness of his.

So, because the facts don't suite your assertions, you resort to dismissing their relevance.  Okay.

I'm not 'fond' of the _facts_ that Green (a) did indeed miss a whole season after having his chest cut open or that (b) did indeed injure his shoulder this year.   They are simply the reality.

As to whether Green should be playing through this particular injury, keep in mind that our only other SF, Wallace, is already lost for the season.   I suppose you would prefer we had Chris Johnson and Chris Babb playing all the minutes at SF since, after all, tanking has always been your stated preferred strategy.  So you are consistent.

I think you missed his point.

You can't judge a player based solely on how they perform at their peak performance.  Over an 82 game season, every player is going to sustain nagging injuries.  The ability to sustain a certain level of play as one's body wears down is something that should be evaluated.

Also, I'm not sure that it's fair to blame this January 13 shoulder injury, which was described as a pretty minor thing.  Green's FG% has been below 40% for three straight months.  Even prior to January 13, his efficiency was pretty spotty.  Going back nearly a full month, from December 16 to January 11, Green's FG% was 41.5%.  His 3PT% was 30.8% during that stretch (which again, doesn't include any games after January 11, the date of his shoulder injury.)

It seems likely, then, that the shoulder injury isn't the cause of his dip in efficiency.

As Fafnir pointed out earlier, FG% is not really a very useful measure.  eFG is a much better barometer of shooting efficiency from the floor.

I think the fact that, as I pointed out earlier, Green's eFG dropped like a rock immediately upon that injury and through the next few weeks is pretty compelling that, yeah, it DID have an effect.

Again, going into that game, Green's eFG was just a hair under 50%.   The immediate month-and a half from Dec 1 through Jan 12 it was also 49.8%.  So no, it was not already declining.

It dropped to under 40% over the period from that game (1/13) through Feb 2.   That's a huge deviation.

I was wondering what Jeff's excuse was this year for being the exact same player for the 6th season in a row. Poor guy! Can't wait til next year!

[Fan from VT]

Fast forward to 2018. Jeff Green is averaging 16.6pts, 4.6 rbs, 1.6 asts, .530 TS with 14 PER in 33 mpg:

"Guys, he's only 6 years after OPEN HEART SURGERY! Plus he stubbed his toe right when training camp was going to start, so he didn't get the full offseason prep time in! Give him a chance!"