There's a lot of basketball yet to be played, but the race to the bottom is taking shape.
Right now we have ORL, PHI and MIL all in full-scale tank mode and with some distance between themselves and the next four teams. They look like good bets to take the 1-3 lottery slots.
This leaves the Celtics in a logjam with UTA, LAL and SAC for the 4th-7th slots. As of today these four teams are all within 1.5 games of each other:
W L PCT
Utah 19 34 .358
Boston 19 36 .345
LA Lakers 18 36 .333
Sacramento 18 36 .333
The consensus seems to be that drafting in the top 3 would be great but that also, drafting 4-5 is significantly better than drafting 6th or 7th.
My goal isn't really to debate that, but merely to point something out: if one cares about having either a top 3 or top 5 pick, the lottery odds really, really punish the 6th and 7th positions relative to the 4th and 5th. So, how things play out with us and those other three teams is critical.
Here's a quick look at the chances of having a top 3 and a top 5 pick, by lottery position.
Top 3 Top 5
4th 37.8% 82.8%
5th 29.2% 55.3%
6th 21.5% 21.5%
7th 15.0% 15.0%
As you can see, there's a big drop-off in the first column, but the real jawdropper is the second. Falling from 4th to 7th reduces the chance at a top 5 pick from 83% to 15%. This is just massive.
And right now that difference - the difference between an 85% shot at one of the top 5, and a 15% shot at one of those guys - that difference is coming from less than 2 games in the standings.
I wanted to wait until after the trade deadline to avoid discussions about whether we should trade talent away.
With the deadline past it's going to be an interesting last bit of the season here, and I think all eyes should be on those other three teams, for us as Celtics fans. Here's a quick and incomplete scouting report:
1. UTA has actually been playing well since Burke joined the lineup full-time; they're 18-20 and almost a .500 team since then. I think they have a good chance of finishing strong, with the caveat that they are in the West. They have a critical 6-game road trip against mostly bad teams in the East: that's something to watch.
2. SAC has been playing consistent .333 ball all year, and there's little to expect in the way of change except the recent injury to Isaiah Thomas, which he appears to be playing through, and the trade of Marcus Thornton to the Nets. It'll be interesting to see whether McLemore and Terry can pick up the (minimal) slack created by Thornton's departure. (The Kings were trying to unload Jason Thompson but failed to cut a deal at the deadline).
3. LAL are the real wild card here. Kobe and Nash are unknown quantities; will they come back and at what level? How much will losing Steve Blake, who they traded today, hurt? Luckily for Celtics fans the Lakers were unable to off-load Pau Gasol, but one can easily envision the Lakers really taking a nosedive.
Anyway for us lottery odds-watchers, I think these three other teams are the ones to watch. Interested to hear what others think...
Topic: The perils of the 6th/7th lottery slots (Read 9270 times)