Author Topic: Tankers and Non-Tankers Rejoice: Celtics are Power Drafters.  (Read 6786 times)

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Tankers and Non-Tankers Rejoice: Celtics are Power Drafters.
« on: February 07, 2014, 05:47:25 PM »

Offline Mr October

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After reading articles about redrafting  the 2013 draft, i decided to look at the last five drafts and see who was able to draft a top 10 player that year, and do so while maximizing the value of their position in the draft. For example, golden state selecting Klay Thompson at number 11 in 2011 is more impressive than Cleveland drafting the consensus number 1 pick, Kyrie Irving that same year.

These are the teams that i think have made the most of their draft positions, with regards to the top 10 players of the draft in any given year.

1. Indiana by far. Paul George at 10, when he is perhaps the best player in the 2010 draft. Lance Stephenson at 40, is looking like perhaps the 8th best player in that same class. Leonard (15) and Plumlee (26) were excellent picks in their years, even though they were traded for George Hill and Luis Scola. Going as far back as 2008, Roy Hibbert was a great pick at 17.

2. Golden state has turned a 7 pick, Curry, and 11th pick, Thompson into an allstar back court. I strongly believe Thompson will make an allstar team soon. Curry is the 3rd best player in his class, Thompson is the 3rd or 4th best player in his class. Barnes was a solid pick at 7. But Udoh was a bust at number 6 in 2010.

3. Philadelphia's highlights were Jrue Holiday at number 17 in 2009, Vucevic at 16 in 2011 (even though they lost him for Andrew Bynum), Carter-Williams at 11 in 2013 and the draft day trade of Holiday for Noel at 6 and a future lottery pick. The lowlight is that Evan Turner picked at number 2 is maybe the 10th best player of the 2010 class.

4. Detroit has a great return in Drummond at 9 (he looks like the 3rd best player in the 2012 class), and solid picks in Monroe at 7, Brandon Knight at 8, and Caldwell-Pope at 8.

5 and 6 are a tie, and i give the edge to Danny ainge for his extended track record.

5. Boston turned the 21 pick into the 7th best player of his class with Jared Sullinger. Avery Bradley at 19 is arguably the 10th best player of the 2010 class. Olynyk was an average pick in a funky year. Picked at 13, he looks like the 16th best player. Let's see how he ranks in 2 years.

As a bonus (meaning i looked beyond the last 5 years) Ainge found the second best player of the 2006 draft with the 21st pick in Rajon Rondo. Al Jefferson at 15 is the 4th or 5th best player in the 2004 draft. He also built a title team in 2007 by trading the 5th pick and Wally's big contract for Ray Allen, knowing he still had pieces to make a move for Garnett.

The biggest blunder was wasting the 7th pick in 2006 in a trade for Sebastian Telfair. In his defense, the 2006 draft was probably the worst draft in the last 20 or 30 years, and he still managed to get Rondo out of it.

6. Chicago picked Taj Gibson at 26 and Jimmy Butler at 30, and they are arguably top 10 in their classes.

7. Toronto picked DeRozan at 9, and he appears to be 4th best in his class. They also made solid picks with Valanciunas at 5 in 2011 and Terrance Jones at 8 in 2012.

8. Utah made 3 solid picks for their draft positions in Hayward 9, Kanter 3 and Burke 9.

9. Milwaukee has done well with Sanders 15 and Antetokounmpo 15. As a minus they did draft Fredette at number 10 and traded him to Sacramento in a trade in which both teams lost or broke even at best.

My point is that no matter where the celtics end up in the draft this year, Danny Ainge is a very very good triggerman when it comes to finding value wherever his picks fall. He is one of the very best in the entire NBA!

Re: Tankers and Non-Tankers Rejoice: Celtics are Power Drafters.
« Reply #1 on: February 07, 2014, 05:54:58 PM »

Offline LarBrd33

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just think of the home run Ainge could hit with a Top 5 pick in a top-heavy draft. 

Re: Tankers and Non-Tankers Rejoice: Celtics are Power Drafters.
« Reply #2 on: February 07, 2014, 06:00:25 PM »

Offline Mr October

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In contrast these are the teams who really blew it with their draft positions. They are the poster children for the anti-tankers.

1. Minnesota botched things with Flynn, Derrick Williams, Wesley Johnson. Ricky Rubio at number 5 isnt in the top five of the 2009 class. They should have kept Ty Lawson, picked at 18, that year instead.

2. Cleveland missed opportunities with Bennett and waiters. Irving was a good choice, but he was a no-brainer consensus number 1. It is hard to give that organization credit, when they are handed the biggest prize in the draft courtesy of the ping pong balls.

3. Washington blew it with Vessely and Porter. Beal was solid. Again a can't give them credit for lottery luck with Wall.

4. Sacramento's blemishes are Thomas Robinson and Fredette. Cousins, Evans, and McLemore look like solid picks for their draft positions though.

5. Charlotte picked Biyombo and Cody Zeller with lottery picks. Kidd-Gilchrist is still struggling to live up to his number 2 selection. At least Kemba Walker was a solid choice.

6. Memphis - Thabeet in 2009

7. New Orleans botched with Rivers, and probably did by trading away Nerlens Noel and a future lottery pick for Holiday. They can thank lottery luck for granting them Anthony Davis.

All the other teams either broke even with their high lottery picks,  havent had a crack at a top 10 pick, or haven't been able to turn later draft picks into top 10 gold during the last 5 years.
« Last Edit: February 07, 2014, 06:42:57 PM by Mr October »

Re: Tankers and Non-Tankers Rejoice: Celtics are Power Drafters.
« Reply #3 on: February 07, 2014, 06:06:33 PM »

Offline saltlover

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Interesting, but where are your player rankings comings from?

Re: Tankers and Non-Tankers Rejoice: Celtics are Power Drafters.
« Reply #4 on: February 07, 2014, 06:06:47 PM »

Offline Mr October

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just think of the home run Ainge could hit with a Top 5 pick in a top-heavy draft.

Absolutely! I trust Danny ainge to make the right move with the 3rd pick or the 8th pick. I also think he has a better than 50% of finding a good player with that 20th pick from Atlanta. We could walk away with two players who become top 10 players from this class.

However, I don't believe the draft fate is top 5 pick with contention in a few years or bust into a decade of mediocrity, with no in between.

Re: Tankers and Non-Tankers Rejoice: Celtics are Power Drafters.
« Reply #5 on: February 07, 2014, 06:07:11 PM »

Offline rondohondo

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nice job tp

Re: Tankers and Non-Tankers Rejoice: Celtics are Power Drafters.
« Reply #6 on: February 07, 2014, 06:16:15 PM »

Online JBcat

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What hurts for me is Giddens taken right before Pekovic, Jordan, and Asik.

Re: Tankers and Non-Tankers Rejoice: Celtics are Power Drafters.
« Reply #7 on: February 07, 2014, 06:21:37 PM »

Offline Mr October

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Interesting, but where are your player rankings comings from?

Based on what i have read, or watched, here are my rankings.

2009:
Griffin picked 1
Harden picked 3
Curry picked 7
Demar derozan picked 9
Ty Lawson 18
Jrue Holiday 17
Brandon Jennings 10
Tyreke Evans 4
Jeff Teague 19
Gerald Henderson 12 or Taj Gibson 26

2010
George 10
Wall 1
Cousins 5
Favors 3
Monroe 7
Hayward 9
Bledsoe 18
Lance Stephenson 40
Larry Sanders 15
Evan Turner 2 or you could argue Avery Bradley 19

2011
Irving 1
Kanter 3
Klay Thompson 11
Leonard 15
Kemba Walker 9
Valanciunas 5
Vucevic 16
Brandon Knight 8
Derrick Williams 2
Tristan Thompson 4 or perhaps jimmy Butler 30

2012
Anthony Davis 1
Lillard 6
Drummond 9
Beal 3
Barnes 7
Kidd-Gilchrist 2
Sullinger  21
Terrance Jones 8
Miles plumlee 26
Meyers Leonard 11 ? ...this one was hard to pick.

2013
I used this article:
http://nba.si.com/2014/01/31/2013-nba-draft-redraft-giannis-antetokounmpo/

Re: Tankers and Non-Tankers Rejoice: Celtics are Power Drafters.
« Reply #8 on: February 07, 2014, 06:29:47 PM »

Offline Mr October

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What hurts for me is Giddens taken right before Pekovic, Jordan, and Asik.

Yeah, late 1st, early 2nd round that year each team had a 50-50 chance to grab a good player. Ainge messed up. But i will take that  kind of mistake with a number 30 pick, when he normally gets a good return on picks in the 20s, and has found rotation players in the second round.

The bigger mess up was Marcus banks with the number 13 pick in 2003.  Junk was picked after him until david west at 18. Oops! At least Perkins was a great return for a 27 pick in that draft.

Re: Tankers and Non-Tankers Rejoice: Celtics are Power Drafters.
« Reply #9 on: February 07, 2014, 06:33:49 PM »

Offline PhoSita

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just think of the home run Ainge could hit with a Top 5 pick in a top-heavy draft.

Absolutely! I trust Danny ainge to make the right move with the 3rd pick or the 8th pick. I also think he has a better than 50% of finding a good player with that 20th pick from Atlanta. We could walk away with two players who become top 10 players from this class.

That's basically where I'm placing a lot of my hopes.

Chances are, the Celtics won't get up with a top 3 pick.  Really, there are just so many factors working against that.  If it happens, awesome.  We're golden. 

But if not, I'm resting on my confidence in Ainge to find a guy who might not be an MVP candidate but who will be a highly productive player and make some people question if maybe they ought to have gone 2-3 spots higher. 

Dante Exum and Aaron Gordon are guys I'm thinking about, but I'm sure there are plenty of opinions about who might fit the bill as a modest sleeper in the top 10.  I trust Danny to figure out who that is. 

Also, in a draft like this I think Danny can find a quality guy who slips a bit.  Maybe not somebody as good as Sullinger, but perhaps somebody as potentially useful as Bradley.
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Re: Tankers and Non-Tankers Rejoice: Celtics are Power Drafters.
« Reply #10 on: February 07, 2014, 06:57:42 PM »

Offline Mr October

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As part of my logic for ranking these players, i judge them based on who would be a better fit on a title contender. So even though Evan turner has more talent than Avery Bradley, i would expect the heat, pacers, thunder and spurs to prefer a guy like Bradley added to their team over turner.

Bradley is going to give you defense, energy, mid range shots and good cutting in 20 minutes or so per game.

Meanwhile turner needs the ball in his hands to be effective. I dont think a title contender wants the ball in turner's hands, with James, durant, Parker, George, etc watching him work. Turner's fate so far is to be a good player on a bad or mediocre team.

Re: Tankers and Non-Tankers Rejoice: Celtics are Power Drafters.
« Reply #11 on: February 07, 2014, 07:01:44 PM »

Offline BleedGreen1989

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Cool thread. TP

Overall, I have faith in Ainge throughout all of this.

If we had the Bucks management or the Bobcats I would be more concerned with ultimately landing a super high pick and take the guessing work out of it, but Ainge has my faith that he could find a very good player at even maybe the 7th or 8th pick.
*CB Miami Heat*
Kyle Lowry, Dwayne Wade, 13th pick in even numbered rounds, 18th pick in odd numbered rounds.

Re: Tankers and Non-Tankers Rejoice: Celtics are Power Drafters.
« Reply #12 on: February 07, 2014, 07:28:39 PM »

Offline pokeKingCurtis

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TP. For the work and for inciting some positivity on the forums.

I feel like more teams are better and better at finding gems nowadays (especially young ones). I'm guessing better scouting and analytics, as well as the fact that players are getting exposed to organized basketball at an increasingly early age also improves the depth of talent.

A less scientific, more subjective list of teams that are good at scouting young talent might include additionally teams like the Suns, the Thunder and definitely the Spurs. Teams being far more savvy makes things a lot more interesting.

That said, Ainge making your list shows he's one of the best considering all his picks have been mid/mid-late first round.

Re: Tankers and Non-Tankers Rejoice: Celtics are Power Drafters.
« Reply #13 on: February 07, 2014, 07:38:05 PM »

Offline chambers

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I think Danny will make the right choice.
I dunno about giving him credit for Sully because he fell into our laps at 21. He also stank it up with Fab Melo.

Passing up on Giannis and going for Olynyk was disappointing but I can see the logic.
He decided to pick BPA instead of potential.

I would love to somehow get our hands on two top 10 picks but I doubt it happens without moving Rondo on draft night. So keeping Rondo is completely reasonable as well.
138 days till the draft.
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quoting 'Greg B' on RealGM after 2017 trade deadline.
Read that last line again. One more time.

Re: Tankers and Non-Tankers Rejoice: Celtics are Power Drafters.
« Reply #14 on: February 07, 2014, 07:58:44 PM »

Offline pokeKingCurtis

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I think Danny will make the right choice.
I dunno about giving him credit for Sully because he fell into our laps at 21. He also stank it up with Fab Melo.

I'm guessing that Fab Melo pick was always gonna be a gamble and Ainge never did expect much out of it.