Logical deadline deal: Hump for Gordon & 1st

[Depalma2002]

If half a season of Kris Humphries is worth a 1st rounder...

A 1/3 a season of Jordan Crawford was.

No it wasn't.

Golden State didn't send the pick the Miami Heat did after the C's took on 4 million dollars in salary for next year. And the pick isn't a sure first rounder its a  protected one that could easily become 2 second round picks.

So the C's had to take on money to get a worse pick than in the OPs proposed trade.

Sorry to nitpick -- but it's not necessarily a worse pick. If Philly makes the playoffs next season, it's likely a considerably better pick in what folks are now saying could be a less stacked -- but deeper -- draft.

In the East, not crazy to imagine Philly doing so. So if they do, it's a better pick, and if they don't it's a high 2nd and another 2nd, I believe. If the Cs could trade that Philly pick for the Portland pick this year... would they?

But.. true that the Cs took Anthony's option for 2014-15 to make it happen.

Its a worse pick than Charlotte's this year because of its protections.

There is what a 10% to 25% chance Philly makes the playoffs as the 7th or 8th seed next year or something like that. Only then is it even a first round pick.

Its expected value is far lower than Portland's first rounder this year. Its overwhelming likely to be 2nd round picks compared to a near lock first round pick. The only way the POR pick is not going to be conveyed in a .01% scenario where Portland just missed the playoffs in an epic collapse and somehow jumps into the top 3.

I'm with ssspence on this. I'd take my chances with the Philly pick over the Portland pick.

If the Philly pick doesn't covey, it will be in the top half of the second round. The Portland pick is likely to be in the bottom five. Historically, the expected value gap is not that great between the two fact that you also get an additional second to roll the dice with.

Add in the expected value of the times Philly does make the playoffs (which I think are more like 25-35%) and I'll take my chances with the Philly pick.

[Fafnir]

If half a season of Kris Humphries is worth a 1st rounder...

A 1/3 a season of Jordan Crawford was.

No it wasn't.

Golden State didn't send the pick the Miami Heat did after the C's took on 4 million dollars in salary for next year. And the pick isn't a sure first rounder its a  protected one that could easily become 2 second round picks.

So the C's had to take on money to get a worse pick than in the OPs proposed trade.

Sorry to nitpick -- but it's not necessarily a worse pick. If Philly makes the playoffs next season, it's likely a considerably better pick in what folks are now saying could be a less stacked -- but deeper -- draft.

In the East, not crazy to imagine Philly doing so. So if they do, it's a better pick, and if they don't it's a high 2nd and another 2nd, I believe. If the Cs could trade that Philly pick for the Portland pick this year... would they?

But.. true that the Cs took Anthony's option for 2014-15 to make it happen.

Its a worse pick than Charlotte's this year because of its protections.

There is what a 10% to 25% chance Philly makes the playoffs as the 7th or 8th seed next year or something like that. Only then is it even a first round pick.

Its expected value is far lower than Portland's first rounder this year. Its overwhelming likely to be 2nd round picks compared to a near lock first round pick. The only way the POR pick is not going to be conveyed in a .01% scenario where Portland just missed the playoffs in an epic collapse and somehow jumps into the top 3.

I'm with ssspence on this. I'd take my chances with the Philly pick over the Portland pick.

If the Philly pick doesn't covey, it will be in the top half of the second round. The Portland pick is likely to be in the bottom five. Historically, the expected value gap is not that great between the two fact that you also get an additional second to roll the dice with.

Add in the expected value of the times Philly does make the playoffs (which I think are more like 25-35%) and I'll take my chances with the Philly pick.

I don't think 2 second round picks are worth a single low first round pick.

I'm also not high on Philly's chances next year. Not with Turner/Hawes likely departing and integrating 3 new rookie players (Noel + NOH (maybe) + their own pick).

Only the pathetic nature of the ECF gives me any hope of it. I also don't view Portland as a lock for a bottom 5 pick. They're regressing and could easily end up in the bottom 4 of the western conference.

[LarBrd33]

LOL @ this thread.  Humph is a scrub.  You'd trade an expiring scrub for an expiring scrub and think you'd get a free 1st rounder out of it?

Completely delusional.

[ssspence]

LOL @ this thread.  Humph is a scrub.  You'd trade an expiring scrub for an expiring scrub and think you'd get a free 1st rounder out of it?

Completely delusional.

Sir, I take your hyperbole in particular as a vindication to the concept of my idea, and a validation of its likelihood. Thank you!

[hpantazo]

LOL @ this thread.  Humph is a scrub.  You'd trade an expiring scrub for an expiring scrub and think you'd get a free 1st rounder out of it?

Completely delusional.

I thought Gordon was not expiring? That would be why we get a first .

[Fafnir]

LOL @ this thread.  Humph is a scrub.  You'd trade an expiring scrub for an expiring scrub and think you'd get a free 1st rounder out of it?

Completely delusional.

I thought Gordon was not expiring? That would be why we get a first .

Nope he's expiring, if he was not expiring we could definitely get a low first rounder for such a swap. Probably more.

[Smokeeye123]

If half a season of Kris Humphries is worth a 1st rounder...

A 1/3 a season of Jordan Crawford was.

No it wasn't.

Golden State didn't send the pick the Miami Heat did after the C's took on 4 million dollars in salary for next year. And the pick isn't a sure first rounder its a  protected one that could easily become 2 second round picks.

So the C's had to take on money to get a worse pick than in the OPs proposed trade.

...It could also EASILY become a first rounder. With Nerlens Noel and the Sixers draft pick next year you don't think they could make the playoffs in the incredibly poor eastern conference?

[Fafnir]

If half a season of Kris Humphries is worth a 1st rounder...

A 1/3 a season of Jordan Crawford was.

No it wasn't.

Golden State didn't send the pick the Miami Heat did after the C's took on 4 million dollars in salary for next year. And the pick isn't a sure first rounder its a  protected one that could easily become 2 second round picks.

So the C's had to take on money to get a worse pick than in the OPs proposed trade.

...It could also EASILY become a first rounder. With Nerlens Noel and the Sixers draft pick next year you don't think they could make the playoffs in the incredibly poor eastern conference?

I don't think Noel will be good right away, skinny big men like him take time to bulk up and figure out the NBA game.

Their point differential is -8.8. That's really really bad, they have a long road to playoff contention than even their 15 wins would indicate. Its more likely that the 76ers miss the playoffs again next year.

[cletus1985]

I think way too many people are writing this trade off like it's impossible because it's a first round pick, but that just isn't true. Charlotte is in win now mode, they have their sights set on the playoffs and giving up a pick in most likely the 24-30th range isn't a whole lot of value. Ben Gordon has pretty much worn out his welcome in Charlotte and isn't giving the team much of anything, Hump is possibly a starter on that team and if not a starter their 1st big off the bench.

I'm confident swapping out Hump for Gordon makes them a better team and gives them a chance to fight for a 5th or 6th seed where they could avoid Miami and Indiana, possibly get
a few wins in the 1st round (maybe even advance to the 2nd round). I think Jordan wants that playoff revenue, playoff experience, and possibly creating a bigger fanbase by being competitive.

Lastly Charlotte isn't exactly a FA destination so resigning Hump is probably easier then getting an equally talented PF to come there via Free Agency. So you have to ask yourself if Hump would be more valuable to them then a guaranteed contract to a first round pick who statistically speaking probably won't be more than a marginal role player and won't be good enough to crack the rotation for a couple years.

I honestly believe Charlotte would try to lowball us at first by trying to send out a 2nd rounder, but would concede to this trade if no one else put up a better offer to get rid of their baggage (Gordon) and could improve their roster right now.

They can get better value from Gordons expiring and a first than Humph though thats the point. They could net a player or two that could fit into their longer term plans and help them win now. They arent going to give up that pick for an expiring player who wont turn them into a contender and probably not resign with them.

They aren't going to get anyone who turns them into a contender with that package. Like I said "IF they don't get a better offer they would probably concede to this deal", not saying they'd jump all over it if offered.

As I stated I think their playoff goals are revenue, experience, and possibly increasing fans. Hump helps them become better this year and possibly get more playoff games. It's not extremely likely to happen, but it's definitely a real possibility if no one else has a more productive big to offer them.

[ssspence]

LOL @ this thread.  Humph is a scrub.  You'd trade an expiring scrub for an expiring scrub and think you'd get a free 1st rounder out of it?

Completely delusional.

I thought Gordon was not expiring? That would be why we get a first .

Nope he's expiring, if he was not expiring we could definitely get a low first rounder for such a swap. Probably more.

Agreed. And the Cats have zero intention of keeping Gordon. I'd assume they'd be interested in retaining Humphries beyond this season if they did this deal.

As for Philly's playoff hopes, none of us has any idea what transactions they might carry out between now and next season. Neither did / do Ainge or Riley. Would any one have called the Suns a playoff team at this time last year? Riley knew there's that risk, albeit not an obvious or highly likely one. 

[LooseCannon]

If the Bobcats are willing to give up a first, wouldn't they prefer Gordon, a first, and a couple of nobodies like Jeff Adrien and Anthony Tolliver to the Lakers for Pau Gasol?

[ssspence]

If the Bobcats are willing to give up a first, wouldn't they prefer Gordon, a first, and a couple of nobodies like Jeff Adrien and Anthony Tolliver to the Lakers for Pau Gasol?

Sure they would. But would the Lakers? FYI ~ I made this argument somewhere above. There's a better deal for them with Phoenix... let's see if they do it.

[LarBrd33]

LOL @ this thread.  Humph is a scrub.  You'd trade an expiring scrub for an expiring scrub and think you'd get a free 1st rounder out of it?

Completely delusional.

I thought Gordon was not expiring? That would be why we get a first .

What we have here is confusion over New Orleans/Charlotte Hornets and the name "Gordon".

Ben Gordon is who this thread refers to... not Eric Gordon.

Humph is an expiring bum.

Ben Gordon is an expiring bum.

There's no way you give up an expiring bum for another expiring bum and get a free 1st rounder out of it.

Completely delusional.  /endthread

[LooseCannon]

There's no way you give up an expiring bum for another expiring bum and get a free 1st rounder out of it.

Completely delusional.  /endthread

Can you also end threads like that when someone proposes giving up a non-expiring bum for an expiring bum and getting a free first rounder out of it?

[ssspence]

LOL @ this thread.  Humph is a scrub.  You'd trade an expiring scrub for an expiring scrub and think you'd get a free 1st rounder out of it?

Completely delusional.

I thought Gordon was not expiring? That would be why we get a first .

What we have here is confusion over New Orleans/Charlotte Hornets and the name "Gordon".

Ben Gordon is who this thread refers to... not Eric Gordon.

Humph is an expiring bum.

Ben Gordon is an expiring bum.

There's no way you give up an expiring bum for another expiring bum and get a free 1st rounder out of it.

Completely delusional.  /endthread

Sir, I take your hyperbole in particular as a vindication to the concept of my idea, and a validation of its likelihood. Thank you!