2013 NBA Draft Do-Over: Giannis goes #1?

[PhoSita]

In my opinion, Ainge's failure of getting Antetokounmpo will be one of historic proportions. And I've said it (probably elsewhere, I rarely, if ever, post in the forums) the moment he traded up to draft Olynyk instead. Giannis was a can't miss prospect, great playmaker skills and smarts, great character and work ethic, athletic body too. And probably less raw than what 13 other GMs that passed expected . He will be a beast in 2 years.

Considering that Ainge had better information (he started following him before others) and that he had already disposed a playoff team, him accepting that the only feasible (=cheap) chance of improving the team was (is?) via the draft, there is no real excuse.

I like Olynyk - as a 7th or 8th guy off the bench. He makes some good decisions on the floor. He is a limited player too. I'd draft Antetokounmpo before him any day and any night.

People are getting way ahead of things with Giannis.  He's got tantalizing physical attributes and he's had his moments, but you really can't push too much stock into whatever stats he's putting up this season on a historically awful team.

[PAOBoston]

In my opinion, Ainge's failure of getting Antetokounmpo will be one of historic proportions. And I've said it (probably elsewhere, I rarely, if ever, post in the forums) the moment he traded up to draft Olynyk instead. Giannis was a can't miss prospect, great playmaker skills and smarts, great character and work ethic, athletic body too. And probably less raw than what 13 other GMs that passed expected . He will be a beast in 2 years.

Considering that Ainge had better information (he started following him before others) and that he had already disposed a playoff team, him accepting that the only feasible (=cheap) chance of improving the team was (is?) via the draft, there is no real excuse.

I like Olynyk - as a 7th or 8th guy off the bench. He makes some good decisions on the floor. He is a limited player too. I'd draft Antetokounmpo before him any day and any night.

Okay, that's quite the definitive statement there. Historic proportions? Come on man. Half the league nearly passed on Giannis. The kid is super raw and was playing what might as well have been pickup basketball in Greece. I would know because I watch Greek basketball. The division he was displaying in was pathetic. Heck, the first division is pathetic with the exception of Panathinaikos and Olympiakos who are giants in Euro basketball. Giannis has great size and physical attributes but that doesn't mean he'll pan out. He needs A LOT of work. I would have loved for Ainge to draft this kid for a lot of reasons but to call it a mistake of "historic proportions" is crazy talk.

[ge]

Okay, that's quite the definitive statement there. Historic proportions? Come on man. Half the league nearly passed on Giannis. The kid is super raw and was playing what might as well have been pickup basketball in Greece. I would know because I watch Greek basketball. The division he was displaying in was pathetic. Heck, the first division is pathetic with the exception of Panathinaikos and Olympiakos who are giants in Euro basketball. Giannis has great size and physical attributes but that doesn't mean he'll pan out. He needs A LOT of work. I would have loved for Ainge to draft this kid for a lot of reasons but to call it a mistake of "historic proportions" is crazy talk.

As you might already know I am also Greek, so I am not making things out of my head ;-) At 17-18, starting basketball only a few years before, Giannis was not expected to play in the big leagues. He was expected to be raw mostly because his ceiling is so high. Milwaukee is bringing him slowly and he has responded nicely.

You overrate NCAA too much. They don't showcase players in Europe, even in small leagues, neither in International competitions. And coaches couldn't care less about working with a player so that he can go to a different league and team. It's about team-first unspectacular basketball and trying to win. It's hardly pickup bb. Untalented, yet senior grown men also play in A2 -  it's not that Giannis had to play with 15year olds in a local competition. Antetokounmpo in Greece was a common secret and Ainge knew about it. So did lots of other GMs. Half the league also passed on Kobe Bryant but we all know the reasons.

[Snakehead]

In my opinion, Ainge's failure of getting Antetokounmpo will be one of historic proportions. And I've said it (probably elsewhere, I rarely, if ever, post in the forums) the moment he traded up to draft Olynyk instead. Giannis was a can't miss prospect, great playmaker skills and smarts, great character and work ethic, athletic body too. And probably less raw than what 13 other GMs that passed expected . He will be a beast in 2 years.

Considering that Ainge had better information (he started following him before others) and that he had already disposed a playoff team, him accepting that the only feasible (=cheap) chance of improving the team was (is?) via the draft, there is no real excuse.

I like Olynyk - as a 7th or 8th guy off the bench. He makes some good decisions on the floor. He is a limited player too. I'd draft Antetokounmpo before him any day and any night.

People are getting way ahead of things with Giannis.  He's got tantalizing physical attributes and he's had his moments, but you really can't push too much stock into whatever stats he's putting up this season on a historically awful team.

Couldn't agree more.  I'm wondering what I'm missing.

And in a vacuum, I thought I would have been optimistic on him.  People have taken it way beyond that.

[indeedproceed]

Anthony Randolph. Could be a paradigm shifting forward, more likely Anthony Randolph. Just thank God that Don Nelson isn't coaching in Milwaukee.

[Boris Badenov]

In my opinion, Ainge's failure of getting Antetokounmpo will be one of historic proportions. And I've said it (probably elsewhere, I rarely, if ever, post in the forums) the moment he traded up to draft Olynyk instead. Giannis was a can't miss prospect, great playmaker skills and smarts, great character and work ethic, athletic body too. And probably less raw than what 13 other GMs that passed expected . He will be a beast in 2 years.

Considering that Ainge had better information (he started following him before others) and that he had already disposed a playoff team, him accepting that the only feasible (=cheap) chance of improving the team was (is?) via the draft, there is no real excuse.

I like Olynyk - as a 7th or 8th guy off the bench. He makes some good decisions on the floor. He is a limited player too. I'd draft Antetokounmpo before him any day and any night.

People are getting way ahead of things with Giannis.  He's got tantalizing physical attributes and he's had his moments, but you really can't push too much stock into whatever stats he's putting up this season on a historically awful team.

Couldn't agree more.  I'm wondering what I'm missing.

And in a vacuum, I thought I would have been optimistic on him.  People have taken it way beyond that.

Thirded. Even if he does end up being a great player, it doesn't mean that drafting him was a good gamble for Ainge or anyone else. Based on his draft position, I'd say that the consensus was he had a chance of being a legit NBA player, and an even smaller chance of being really good.

It looks now like the odds are better on both fronts. But many similar guys have turned out to be busts.

I certainly wouldn't criticize Ainge or any other GM for passing on him. Some lottery tickets are winners - it doesn't mean that we should all go buy them.

[Galeto]

Anthony Randolph. Could be a paradigm shifting forward, more likely Anthony Randolph. Just thank God that Don Nelson isn't coaching in Milwaukee.

Is there any reason why he's more likely to be Randolph?  Well, in the sense that there are more draft "failures" than successes of any kind, I guess so but if the draft is a total crapshoot, which is a big exaggeration, why not gamble on the 18 year old kid who actually played in a structured system over in Greece and definitely would've been a top five recruit had he been an American teenager?

It's not so much that Ainge passed on Giannis that irks me, well that too, but that he did it by selecting the athletically and wingspan challenged big with only one good season of college basketball to speak of.

I'm pretty sure that Giannis is not going to be Randolph because he's already beyond him.  His ballhandling is better, he actually has the quickness to beat defenders off the dribble and he's a far better passer.  They're both skinny and tall.  Other than that, I'm not sure what the comparison is. 

Also, if Nelson is to blame for Randolph, even if partly, which seems kind of simplistic since he's had many coaches since then, isn't having Stevens a good argument for taking Giannis?  Ainge already knew he didn't have a Don Nelson who could mentally mindfrick with players.

[cb8883]

In my opinion, Ainge's failure of getting Antetokounmpo will be one of historic proportions. And I've said it (probably elsewhere, I rarely, if ever, post in the forums) the moment he traded up to draft Olynyk instead. Giannis was a can't miss prospect, great playmaker skills and smarts, great character and work ethic, athletic body too. And probably less raw than what 13 other GMs that passed expected . He will be a beast in 2 years.

Considering that Ainge had better information (he started following him before others) and that he had already disposed a playoff team, him accepting that the only feasible (=cheap) chance of improving the team was (is?) via the draft, there is no real excuse.

I like Olynyk - as a 7th or 8th guy off the bench. He makes some good decisions on the floor. He is a limited player too. I'd draft Antetokounmpo before him any day and any night.

Okay, that's quite the definitive statement there. Historic proportions? Come on man. Half the league nearly passed on Giannis. The kid is super raw and was playing what might as well have been pickup basketball in Greece. I would know because I watch Greek basketball. The division he was displaying in was pathetic. Heck, the first division is pathetic with the exception of Panathinaikos and Olympiakos who are giants in Euro basketball. Giannis has great size and physical attributes but that doesn't mean he'll pan out. He needs A LOT of work. I would have loved for Ainge to draft this kid for a lot of reasons but to call it a mistake of "historic proportions" is crazy talk.

Instead Ainge picked up another 7ft player with no post game. It was a historic mistake but one that everyone else made. His measurables are off the charts insane. This is the type of player you develop for 2-3 years and watch become an NBA superstar. Imagine him and Embiid on the Celtics? My god.

[Galeto]

Does Olynyk have lots of potential?  Not really.
Is Olynyk a player with a lot of upside? Not really
Does Olynyk play good defense? No
Is Olynyk an efficient offensive player? No

Isn't upside the same thing as potential?  No, KO was not a "high potential / upside" pick.  At #13 in a crappy draft, that's not a terrible thing.


That said, lacking potential or upside is not the same thing as being a finished product with no chance of developing as a player, and it seems to me like you're conflating the two.

KO is probably never going to be a defensive phenom, but there are plenty of useful players in this league who aren't great defenders.  He just has to be able to fit into a defensive system.  I can think of plenty of smart but athletically unremarkable (by NBA standards) players who have been able to do that.

KO is not a very efficient offensive player right now, but he's a rookie who hasn't seen consistent minutes, on a team devoid of talent.  All he really needs to become a quite efficient player is for his jumpshots to start falling more consistently, and that is the sort of thing that tends to improve a lot over time, irrespective of athleticism.


It sounds to me like your expectations for the pick were unrealistic.

This wasn't a crappy draft overall.  The top 10 was expected to be crappy but afterwards, it was basically a normal draft.  Take this year's "loaded draft" with last year's.  From the 11th selection on, Draftexpress has players like Saric, Stein, McDermott, James Young, Jerami Grant, Clint Capela, PJ Hairston etc going off the board.  That's a lot of role players with ceilings mostly as solid rotation players.  The quality is similar to the players who went in that range last year, like Steven Adams, Carter Williams, Nogueira, Shane Larkins, our own Olynyk, Schroeder and Giannis. 

On paper, your theory sounds nice.  Crappy draft, Ainge hopefully trying to salvage anything he can by getting a "safe" NBA player with at least one definite NBA skill in his shooting, which hasn't shown up yet. But in practice, it would be ludicrous for Ainge to think that because the high lottery was really substandard that he should pick differently in the mid-1st round. 

Giannis can turn out to be underwhelming and certainly being skinny and tall like Randolph puts him in dangerous territory regardless of their respective skill levels and basketball IQ, but why go for the "safe" pick in the first year of a rebuilding situation.  That's just stupid.

[D.o.s.]

the one thing that seems to come out of the reviews of this draft class is that the smartest thing to have done was trade a top pick for a solid vet player.

If you traded your 2013 pick you wouldn't have nearly as much flexibility with the 2014 pick, which is significantly more valuable.

[Mr October]

No player in the 2013 draft was worthy of being a top 5 pick.

Giannis, oladipo, and carter-williams are probably going to be below all star role players on a winning team at best.

And i think the pick of olynyk was ok. He was picked 13 and is considered maybe the 16th best player in that draft. That's about an average return.

Let's judge this draft again in 2 years. See who really is tapping into their potential.

[Galeto]

Another thing that chaps me about Ainge going the T-Rex route over Giannis is that Giannis was not really all that raw.   He was ahead of his high school peers in many ways because he played structured professional ball in a pick and roll offense with a 24 second shot clock even if the competition was weak by professional standards. By comparison, his high school peers often played in a random offense, with 6'5 centers and no shot clock.  Skill-wise, Giannis was pretty advanced and promising too.  It's not all that surprising that he's been able to contribute this season.  Even if it's for the worst team in the NBA, it's still the NBA.

[vjcsmoke]

Honestly it was a pretty crappy draft if Giannis ends up #1 in a redraft.  I mean I really like his potential but ... a #1 overall pick has to be a bona fide stud.  Tim Hardaway Jr. #5 overall?  Wasn't he taken bottom of the 1st?  We could have bought a pick if we wanted him. 

The top 5 picks in a "do over":

1. Giannis Antetokounmpo
2. Michael Carter-Williams
3. Nerlens Noel
4. Victor Oladipo
5. Tim Hardaway Jr.

The Celtics selection:

13.  C.J. McCollum (if they traded up)

The article doesn't see KO getting picked in the top-14.

I'm a big fan of Giannis, but I have a hard time seeing him go #1.  In a do-over, though, I think the Cavs have to take Oladipo or Noel.

http://nba.si.com/2014/01/31/2013-nba-draft-redraft-giannis-antetokounmpo/?eref=sihp

[ederson]

Here`s an interview Giannis gave to a Greek journalist

http://www.gazzetta.gr/basketball/article/584766/nba-star-giannis-antetokounmpo-talks-about-everything

[slamtheking]

the one thing that seems to come out of the reviews of this draft class is that the smartest thing to have done was trade a top pick for a solid vet player.

If you traded your 2013 pick you wouldn't have nearly as much flexibility with the 2014 pick, which is significantly more valuable.

in a draft-and-trade move, no impact at all. 

If trading that pick in advance, it would not impact the ability to trade the 2014 pick after the 2013 draft occurred provided we still have a 2015 pick (which we do).