2013 NBA Draft Do-Over: Giannis goes #1?

[PhoSita]

http://www.basketball-reference.com/play-index/pcm_finder.cgi?request=1&sum=1&p1=nowitdi01&y1=1999&p2=olynyke01&y2=2014


I'm not suggesting Kelly is EVER going to be Dirk, but I think it's important to keep some perspective.  There's reason to believe that players like Dirk and Kelly take some time to adjust to the NBA game.

Spencer Hawes -- likely a far more realistic comp for Kelly -- also struggled a lot in his first season, and is now a decent if unremarkable player.

http://www.basketball-reference.com/players/h/hawessp01.html


The main difference in both cases is that Kelly is older.  But I think that matters less when you're talking about players who are not particularly physically gifted anyway.

[Fafnir]

http://www.basketball-reference.com/play-index/pcm_finder.cgi?request=1&sum=1&p1=nowitdi01&y1=1999&p2=olynyke01&y2=2014


I'm not suggesting Kelly is EVER going to be Dirk, but I think it's important to keep some perspective.  There's reason to believe that players like Dirk and Kelly take some time to adjust to the NBA game.

Spencer Hawes -- likely a far more realistic comp for Kelly -- also struggled a lot in his first season, and is now a decent if unremarkable player.

http://www.basketball-reference.com/players/h/hawessp01.html


The main difference in both cases is that Kelly is older.  But I think that matters less when you're talking about players who are not particularly physically gifted anyway.

Spencer Hawes would be a solid value from that range of pick.

You always want to hit a Rondo, George, or Pierce outside the top 5 but a starter or rotation player is still a good outcome.

[slamtheking]

the one thing that seems to come out of the reviews of this draft class is that the smartest thing to have done was trade a top pick for a solid vet player.

[fairweatherfan]

Olynyk hasn't blown the doors off or anything but I'd say he's certainly shown enough to not be so pessimistic.  Good scoring touch, good passing for a big, pretty good BBIQ so far.  Bad mainly with assertiveness and strength, two things that are fixable.  He's not looking constantly lost and overmatched like our actual busts like Giddens and JJJ, or even our fake "bust" Avery Bradley.

[PhoSita]

http://www.basketball-reference.com/play-index/pcm_finder.cgi?request=1&sum=1&p1=nowitdi01&y1=1999&p2=olynyke01&y2=2014


I'm not suggesting Kelly is EVER going to be Dirk, but I think it's important to keep some perspective.  There's reason to believe that players like Dirk and Kelly take some time to adjust to the NBA game.

Spencer Hawes -- likely a far more realistic comp for Kelly -- also struggled a lot in his first season, and is now a decent if unremarkable player.

http://www.basketball-reference.com/players/h/hawessp01.html


The main difference in both cases is that Kelly is older.  But I think that matters less when you're talking about players who are not particularly physically gifted anyway.

Spencer Hawes would be a solid value from that range of pick.

You always want to hit a Rondo, George, or Pierce outside the top 5 but a starter or rotation player is still a good outcome.

Exactly.

Look, I get that people judge KO more harshly than Vitor or Pressey or Jajuan Johnson or E'Twaun Moore because he was the #13 pick.

But the only reason the C's could move up into the lottery so easily was because this draft was historically weak.  Getting a decent, useful player out of this kind of draft would be an outcome worth celebrating, honestly.

Danny could have taken Giannis instead, it's true.  Maybe that would have been the smarter pick.  But I'm going to withhold judgment for another year or two and see if KO doesn't come into his own and Giannis doesn't turn out to be another Anthony Randolph or Al Farouq Aminu.

[nickagneta]

Not sure exactly what I said that is so controversial, angry or off base.

Does Olynyk have lots of potential?  Not really.
Is Olynyk a player with a lot of upside? Not really
Does Olynyk play good defense? No
Is Olynyk an efficient offensive player? No

There's nothing controversial, angry or off base about that.

I have seen many here who like KO criticize players across the league with just a year or three under their belts and yet these players have exhibited tremendously more than Olynyk has in his half season. Is that Celtic bias? Maybe it is?

All I know is I watched KO a bunch in college and didn't like his game and thought he would be a bust. Nothing I have seen has changed that. If people will be happy with a player that plays defense poorly, is inefficient on offense, tries hard but really is a borderline rotation player at his best being picked in the lottery, then that's great. I just expect more.

And BTW, the player I was calling for to be drafted by the Celtics, if they could have gotten to him was Michael Carter Williams. Was saying that since last year's NCAA tourney.

[bleedGREENdon]

After everything Nerlons Noel will be the best player in this draft if he comes back healthy. Kid is huge.

[PhoSita]

Does Olynyk have lots of potential?  Not really.
Is Olynyk a player with a lot of upside? Not really
Does Olynyk play good defense? No
Is Olynyk an efficient offensive player? No

Isn't upside the same thing as potential?  No, KO was not a "high potential / upside" pick.  At #13 in a crappy draft, that's not a terrible thing.


That said, lacking potential or upside is not the same thing as being a finished product with no chance of developing as a player, and it seems to me like you're conflating the two.

KO is probably never going to be a defensive phenom, but there are plenty of useful players in this league who aren't great defenders.  He just has to be able to fit into a defensive system.  I can think of plenty of smart but athletically unremarkable (by NBA standards) players who have been able to do that.

KO is not a very efficient offensive player right now, but he's a rookie who hasn't seen consistent minutes, on a team devoid of talent.  All he really needs to become a quite efficient player is for his jumpshots to start falling more consistently, and that is the sort of thing that tends to improve a lot over time, irrespective of athleticism.


It sounds to me like your expectations for the pick were unrealistic.

[PhoSita]

After everything Nerlons Noel will be the best player in this draft if he comes back healthy. Kid is huge.

I tend to agree.  MCW and Oladipo seem like fine players, but I'd say Nerlens has by far the best chance of becoming a high impact player.

[nickagneta]

It sounds to me like your expectations for the pick were unrealistic.

Actually, given who he picked, I think my expectations are about right.

But you may be right. Its just that since 2008 there's been some players going into each draft that I desperately wanted the Celtics to stay away from and Danny has chosen three of those players: JaJuan Johnson, Fab Melo and Kelly Olynyk.

Obviously the Celtics pre draft scouting staff is seeing something in these guys I never have.

[PhoSita]

It sounds to me like your expectations for the pick were unrealistic.

Actually, given who he picked, I think my expectations are about right.

But you may be right. Its just that since 2008 there's been some players going into each draft that I desperately wanted the Celtics to stay away from and Danny has chosen three of those players: JaJuan Johnson, Fab Melo and Kelly Olynyk.

Obviously the Celtics pre draft scouting staff is seeing something in these guys I never have.

Danny's far from perfect, it's true.

Jajuan Johnson seems like a dumb pick, but I can't think of many guys taken after that point in the draft who turned into decent players.  Picking in that range is a crapshoot anyways.

Fab Melo was a questionable pick, but I think when combined with the Sullinger pick it was a decent combo of safe pick and risk / reward pick.  Melo's age kind of made the whole "project big" thing riskier, though.  I would have preferred Festus Ezeli there.  I also would have preferred Arnett Moultrie, though, and to date he hasn't panned out at all, either, so what do I know?

If KO does end up out of the league after his rookie deal, I'll be disappointed.  I'm pretty confident that won't happen, though.  Stretch bigs are an important asset to have in this league, and I also like the strategy of taking exceptionally productive college players that other teams let slip because of oft-overrated physical measurements. 

I'm not saying KO was the perfect pick to make at that spot, but there were worse ones Danny could have made.  He could have taken Shabazz Muhammad, which is something a lot of people probably hoped might happen.  Gorgui Dieng and Dennis Schroeder have yet to do even as much as Kelly has, thus far.

Let's just hope Danny doesn't screw up a pick at the top of the draft.  Missing on #13 or #22 or #27 is one thing.  Missing in the top 5 is a potential catastrophe.

[Tr1boy]

It sounds to me like your expectations for the pick were unrealistic.

Actually, given who he picked, I think my expectations are about right.

But you may be right. Its just that since 2008 there's been some players going into each draft that I desperately wanted the Celtics to stay away from and Danny has chosen three of those players: JaJuan Johnson, Fab Melo and Kelly Olynyk.

Obviously the Celtics pre draft scouting staff is seeing something in these guys I never have.

Danny's far from perfect, it's true.

Jajuan Johnson seems like a dumb pick, but I can't think of many guys taken after that point in the draft who turned into decent players.  Picking in that range is a crapshoot anyways.

Fab Melo was a questionable pick, but I think when combined with the Sullinger pick it was a decent combo of safe pick and risk / reward pick.  Melo's age kind of made the whole "project big" thing riskier, though.  I would have preferred Festus Ezeli there.  I also would have preferred Arnett Moultrie, though, and to date he hasn't panned out at all, either, so what do I know?

If KO does end up out of the league after his rookie deal, I'll be disappointed.  I'm pretty confident that won't happen, though.  Stretch bigs are an important asset to have in this league, and I also like the strategy of taking exceptionally productive college players that other teams let slip because of oft-overrated physical measurements. 

I'm not saying KO was the perfect pick to make at that spot, but there were worse ones Danny could have made.  He could have taken Shabazz Muhammad, which is something a lot of people probably hoped might happen.  Gorgui Dieng and Dennis Schroeder have yet to do even as much as Kelly has, thus far.

Let's just hope Danny doesn't screw up a pick at the top of the draft.  Missing on #13 or #22 or #27 is one thing.  Missing in the top 5 is a potential catastrophe.

JJJ was a risky pick. He had alot of nice things about him, like going through 4 years of college, nice height, length, motor , athleticism. Decent skills

But JJJ has one of those body types that can never get strong enough for the nba. And also narrow shoulders doesn't help. So he is out of the league

Fab Melo was another risky pick bc nobody knew how he could play outside of zone defense.  Also his rebounding numbers didn't increase had some were banking on. Add to it his below avg iq again he is out of the league

KO is not a perfect pick.  Then again not many would have been for the 2013 draft.  It is hard to find a big that can play in the nba (look at the two above picks).  KO has an adv which his height , has high iq and nice motot. But he is getting pushed around as his biggest issue.  Once he puts on 15-20 pounds he should be able to do more of what he likes to.  He is better suited to play under the basket or within 15 ft. At worse the added strength will at least help him shot better and not get easily pushed around under the basket on the defensive end

[mgent]

The top 5 picks in a "do over":

1. Giannis Antetokounmpo
2. Michael Carter-Williams
3. Nerlens Noel
4. Victor Oladipo
5. Tim Hardaway Jr.

I don't know how the top 5 picks should go in a do over, but I know Tim Hardaway Jr. should definitely go before Oladipo.  Better potential, and basically a better season so far.  He's easily the best scorer of this draft class, even if he hasn't gotten the same minutes as the others.

[ge]

In my opinion, Ainge's failure of getting Antetokounmpo will be one of historic proportions. And I've said it (probably elsewhere, I rarely, if ever, post in the forums) the moment he traded up to draft Olynyk instead. Giannis was a can't miss prospect, great playmaker skills and smarts, great character and work ethic, athletic body too. And probably less raw than what 13 other GMs that passed expected . He will be a beast in 2 years.

Considering that Ainge had better information (he started following him before others) and that he had already disposed a playoff team, him accepting that the only feasible (=cheap) chance of improving the team was (is?) via the draft, there is no real excuse.

I like Olynyk - as a 7th or 8th guy off the bench. He makes some good decisions on the floor. He is a limited player too. I'd draft Antetokounmpo before him any day and any night.

[SHAQATTACK]

I was surprised to see Danny pass over Giannis. After all the work and effort to scout him.   I would have taken him over KO.
I was a supporter of drafting Hardaway.   Got flamed for it bad......
I like Kelly anyhow and still feel  in another year he'll be a much improved player.

Fab Melo  turned out plain awful.....zero IQ .....I never guessed he was THAT bad

JJJ......I  had. Bad feeling all the way he was not NBA material..

But my major ...bad call ...was Royce White........I never imagined th mental deal with him was such a factor.........I would have drafted him... ......LoL...