Report: Rajon Rondo "intrigued" by Free Agency in 2015

[chambers]

How many players in their 20's ever got to play with similar team mates like KG, Pierce and Ray Allen in a situation like Rondo's?

  I'd guess a lot more than you think. But are you talking about 2008 big three or the fringe all-stars of the last few years?
 

Has there ever been an All Star point guard that's as poor a shooter as Rondo from the FT line and 3 point line?

  Possibly not. But a 4-time all-star he is. He made those all-star games because of his overall level of play, where he does many things well enough that he's still one of the top guards in the league in spite of his shooting. It's not like he made 1 team as a fluke selection.

  I think a better question is, how many point guards have there been that would have been regular all-stars if they shot (and hit free throws) like Rondo? How many point guards would be regular all-stars if they never scored more than 14 ppg?

  It's true that he's not a great shooter. It's also true that he's been one of the best point guards in the league for a while. It's useful to notice what he does poorly, it's equally useful to notice what he does well and how well he does those things.

I know what he does well. Just trying to provide perspective because sometimes I wonder if you notice the things he doesn't do well.
I also take into consideration that he's had the rare fortune of playing with All star caliber players up until the 2011 to 2012 seasons. He's obviously improved as ours original big 3 started to drastically decline. I'm not questioning his 'his play', because he made the most of the situation he was in. I just think it's obvious that without those excellent/elite shooters around him, and his lack of shooting ability - that people will question how much their absence will affect his ability to put up numbers, particularly on the assists side of the equation. (The strongest part of his game and the one above all other skills placing to All Star level talent).

  In the interest of perspective, take a look at the "Qualified" leaders in fg% for 2013 on espn.com. PP was 12th among small forwards, KG was 13th among power forwards, Bass would be 16th among power forwards and Bradley would be 24th (last) among shooting guards. Those are the excellent/elite shooters around Rondo, and he led the league in assists by a decent margin.

 People used to talk about how much Rondo depended on Ray's shooting, that was clearly nonsense. People talk about how much Rondo is dependent on PP and KG, but as they waned as players Rondo became more productive, not less. Why didn't we see him struggle more as their play worsened?

  Look at the team this year. Rondo's not playing well at all. He's integrating himself into the team, and hasn't built up much chemistry with his teammates yet. His team is 26th in the league in fg%, so clearly he's not even surrounded by good shooters. There are only two players in the league averaging better than 1 assist per36 more than Rondo.

  If Rondo was playing as many minutes now as he was last year he'd be just over 2 assists/game lower than last year. He'd be .5 apg out of 2nd place in the league. You're claiming that Rondo would struggle to get assists without PP and KG. Is 9 assists/game "struggling to get assists"? If so, that would be where he is now, assuming he was playing equal minutes.

  What happens to Rondo's assist totals as he becomes healthier? What happens to his assist totals when he and his teammates get used to each other and they get in sync with his passes? What happens to his assist totals if his poor shooting teammates are upgraded to average or a little better than average shooters? I'd say all of these things will push the numbers up. Would you agree?

  If Rondo gets healthier (he will) and develops better chemistry with his teammates (he will) and, over time, the team gets somewhat better shooters (we all hope and pray that they will) then his assist totals will very likely go up. But his assist rate isn't that much lower than it was in the past even now.

  So where's the big dropoff in assists that Rondo will surely experience without KG and PP? You claim to know what Rondo does well. But if you were expecting a big drop in his assists without KG and PP I'd say that you really don't, or at least how well he does those things. It could turn out that you're right, that Rondo's assist rate will stay the same or worsen as Rondo gets healthier and more in sync with his teammates and we get better shooters. But I wouldn't bet the farm on it.

You're claiming that Rondo would struggle to get assists without PP and KG. Is 9 assists/game "struggling to get assists"? If so, that would be where he is now, assuming he was playing equal minutes.

I never claimed that he'd struggle. I merely pointed out that his detractors would say that he's unproven without Pierce and KG and his assists numbers were helped by their great shooting, and the Celtics overall excellent jumpshooting. Particularly without KG who has been an elite jump shooter for Rondo's entire tenure as an All Star point guard.

 

In the interest of perspective, take a look at the "Qualified" leaders in fg% for 2013 on espn.com. PP was 12th among small forwards, KG was 13th among power forwards, Bass would be 16th among power forwards and Bradley would be 24th (last) among shooting guards. Those are the excellent/elite shooters around Rondo, and he led the league in assists by a decent margin.

Tim I know you'll defend Rondo no matter what the debate. Unfortunately you're using FG% to try and argue that he hasn't been surrounded by elite jumpshooters for his entire career since 2007-2008. This is simply wrong.
Now the argument here isn't that he's not one of the best passers in the league- because he clearly is. The argument is that his stats benefit from having these sharpshooters around him. Now that he doesn't have these guys, he's going to lose those few extra assists that shooters like KG, Paul and Ray gave him- where other elite point guards may not have that luxury.

Lets look at 2011-12 when KG and Pierce were starting to decline.

NBA assist totals 2011-12 per 40 minutes
Assists per game in different locations on the floor:

At the rim:Assists made directly at the basket (dunks, layups, tip ins)
Nash 6.0
Rondo 4.5
Rubio 4.1
Calderon 4.1

He's 2nd in the league in 'At the rim'. Now he's got KG at number 7 in the league at 'At the rim' FG percentage, and he's also got Bass at number 17- so he's doing well finding these alley oops and layup passes. Avery Bradley contributed to this with his back door cuts and slashing, and Rondo did well to find him for those easy buckets. Bradley had an 'At the rim' % of 65%, and 64% of those 'At the rim' buckets were assisted baskets.
BUT- Kevin Garnett has the number one percentage of assisted buckets at the rim in 2012, with over 80% of those baskets coming from an assist.
Again, Rondo has always done a great job finding KG, but KG has always been a master of getting above the rim even in his old age and using his length and reach to facilitate those lobs and alley oops.
With KG gone, where do these 4.5 'At the rim' assists come from per game?

Lets look at the jumpshooting- where you seem to mock my claim that the Celtics are an 'elite' jumpshooting team.

Assists leading to baskets 10 feet or under per 40 minutes (excluding directly at the rim as listed above)

1)Nash 1.4
2)Calderon 1.0
3)Chris Paul 0.9
4)Tony Parker 0.8
5)Jarret Jack 0.7
6)Mike Conley Jr 0.7
7)Darren Collison...0.7
go down to number 24.. Rajon Rondo at 0.3

Not much action here, although KG was the 2nd best power forward in the NBA from 3-9 feet and 51% of his made baskets were from assists. Bass was a very poor here due to his lack of post game- he'd either shoot a jumper or drive to dunk. He did have 43% of his shots here come from assists, but shot only 25% from the floor at 3-9 feet.

Now here's where it starts to get interesting, and here's where Rondo's critics will point out how good his team actually was at converting his potential assists into made baskets. Further below I'll post the actual shooting stats of his team mates compared to the rest of the league.

Mid range jumpshots 10-15 feet per 40 minutes

Assists leading to made baskets between 10-15 feet of the rim


1)Rondo 1.1
2)Williams 0.9
3)Rose 0.8
4)Jack 0.8
5)Holiday 0.8
6)Conley Jr 0.8
7)Calderon 0.7
Nash 0.7
9)Lowry 0.5
10)Jennings 0.4 11)Parker 0.4 12) Lawson 0.4 13) Knight 0.3 14)Chris Paul 0.3

Long jumpshots 16-23 feet per 40 minutes

Assists leading to made baskets 16-23 feet from the basket.

1)Rajon Rondo 4.1
2)Rose 3.0
3)Nash 2.8
4)Calderon 2.6
5)Jack 2.5
6)Lowry 2.2

3 point shots per 40 minutes

Assists leading to made 3 point baskets


1)Nelson 3.3
2)Rubio 3.2
3)Williams 3.0
4)Parker 3.0
5)Paul 2.8
6)Rondo 2.7
7)Nash 2.7

You can see that shots taken from between 10-15 feet and 16-23 feet, Rondo has an average of 2.4 more assists per game than ANYONE in the rest of the league in 2012.

Why is that?

Well, if we look at his team mates shooting efficiencies compared to the rest of the NBA at their position you can see he was SPOILED with help.

NBA power forwards shot attempts 3-9 feet from basket
In order of shooting %

1)Aldridge
2)Garnett
3)Gasol
4)Griffin
5)Love
6)Millsap

KG= second in the NBA.

NBA power forwards mid range jumpshot shot attempts 10-15 feet from basket

1)Bosh
2)Bass
3)Lee
4)Scola
5)Gasol
6)Nowitzki
7)Aldridge
8)Garnett

Brandon Bass is the second best shooter from 10-15 feet out of NBA power forwards and KG is number 8.

If you look at the percentage of assisted baskets in this 10-15 feet range, you'll find Bass at number 3 in the NBA, and KG at number 7.
In other words, the Celtics/Rondo should get credit for finding Bass and KG for their preferred shot, but Bass and KG were also ELITE jumpshooters from the power forward position- They were both in the top 3

16-23 feet jumpshots by NBA power forwards 2011-12
Guess who the number 2 and 3 power forwards in the NBA were from 16-23 feet. I'll give you 2 guesses.
1)Nowitzki 50%
2)Bass 48%
3)Kevin Garnett 48%
4)Scola 44%
5)Aldridge 43%
6)Gasol 43%

How many of these jumpshots from 16-23 feet were 'assisted baskets'? - in other words....
Who are the leaders at the power forward position in 2011-12 as catch and shoot or catch and one dribble jumpshooters from 16-23 feet from the basket?

1)Brandon Bass 95%
2)Jamison 94.7%
3)Anderson 94%
4)Scola 90%
5)Garnett 89%
6)Gasol 86.1%

So those are the power forwards.
Is it safe to say Rondo was passing to elite jumpshooters Tim?

For arguments sake,
Lets look at Paul Pierce and his jumpshooting in 2011-12 compared to the rest of the NBA's small forwards...


NBA Small forwards mid range jumpshot shot attempts 10-15 feet from basket
1)Iguoadala
2)James
3)Gay
4)Anthony
5)Pierce
6)Durant

Yes, Pierce was better from 10-15 feet in 2011-12 than Kevin Durant. He was ELITE.
Guess what he was from 10-15 feet in 2013 when Rondo was injured for half a season? 2nd in the league behind durant.
From 16-23 feet he was 6th.

If you look at how many of those jumpshots were 'assisted' in 2011-12, Pierce comes in above all of the other top 6 small forwards at 37.2%- even though he's an incredible spot up shooter who can drain it off the dribble, he's also just as good, if not better on the catch and shoot. His 'assisted' ranking is number 6 overall. Rondo gets an assist on the board everytime Pierce catches that pass and drains it. I wonder how he'll fair with Gerald Wallace or even Jeff Green catching that pass instead?

Note that even without Rondo for half a season in 2013, Pierce still had an assisted rate of 38.1%, even higher than 2011-12...

Moving on to...
Long jumpshots 16-23 feet and 3 point baskets by NBA Small forwards per 40 minutes

*Pierce was the 12th best small forward from 16-23 feet.
*He was the 7th best three point shooter.

Now Rondo's been back for 6 games and he's averaging 8.4 assists per 36 minutes. That's 2.2 assists less per game than last season and 3 less assists per game than 2011-12. I won't judge him on anything at the moment because he's recovering.
But the whole argument is that without KG and Pierce and having an elite jumpshooting team around him, he may not be an All Star caliber player.

If he comes back next season, after this off season to further recover/rehab his knee, is he still an All Star with a stat line like 9 assists, 13 points and 6 rebounds a game?

You're saying 'we'll just put better shooters around him', which is basically saying that for Rondo to be an All Star, he may need elite shooters around him.

The critics argument:

*Rondo can't shoot from the line- true
*He can't shoot threes-true
*He's coming of an ACL injury and his return to former athletic range/ability is not certain- true
*He's lost one of the best big men in the NBA in Garnett- more importantly, he's lost one of the best shooters in the NBA at their position.- true
* He's lost one of the best small forwards in the NBA, more importantly- one of the best jumpshooters and three point shooters in the NBA for his position.
*He still has Bass, but Bass doesn't have KG to stretch the floor, and Bass is looking like he'll be traded before he and Rondo get time to play together whilst Rondo's even 75% of his former self.- true?

That being said, he's still...
*arguably the best passer in the NBA
*one of the most competitive players in the NBA
*got championship experience
*has huge value in attracting potential free agents due to his game being based around 'sharing' and getting the ball to players at their spot.
*arguably has the best court vision of anyone- or is in the 1% category of Chris Paul and Steve Nash in this segment.
*Arguably has the best anticipation in the NBA and uses this gift to give his team mates better shots- particularly on the break.

Anyway, hopefully this gives you another perspective as to why he might not be all we hoped he may be without Pierce and KG.

Just so we are clear...

In 2012 the Celtics were the 15th best team from directly 'at the rim' basket percentage with 63%. They were 26th in the league from 3-9 feet with 33%.

Yet they somehow took the Heat to 7 games in the Eastern Conference finals. How did they accomplish this?

By being the number 1 jumpshooting team from 10-15 feet and 16-23 feet. They also had the highest number of assisted field goals from those distances of all teams in the NBA.

http://www.hoopdata.com/teamshotlocs.aspx?yr=2012&type=pg

[footey]

This is called "negotiating."

[BleedGreen1989]

Chambers just basically wrote an essay lol

I can't even write that much for a school report

[CoachBo]

The daily csblog Rondo thread......

"Rondo stinks."

"No he's great"

"Rondo stinks."

"No he's great"

"Rondo stinks."

"No he's great"

"Rondo stinks."

"No he's great"

"Rondo stinks."

"No he's great"

"Rondo stinks."

"No he's great"

don't you gentlemen ever get bored with this line of banter?

I do.

[BballTim]

How many players in their 20's ever got to play with similar team mates like KG, Pierce and Ray Allen in a situation like Rondo's?

  I'd guess a lot more than you think. But are you talking about 2008 big three or the fringe all-stars of the last few years?
 

Has there ever been an All Star point guard that's as poor a shooter as Rondo from the FT line and 3 point line?

  Possibly not. But a 4-time all-star he is. He made those all-star games because of his overall level of play, where he does many things well enough that he's still one of the top guards in the league in spite of his shooting. It's not like he made 1 team as a fluke selection.

  I think a better question is, how many point guards have there been that would have been regular all-stars if they shot (and hit free throws) like Rondo? How many point guards would be regular all-stars if they never scored more than 14 ppg?

  It's true that he's not a great shooter. It's also true that he's been one of the best point guards in the league for a while. It's useful to notice what he does poorly, it's equally useful to notice what he does well and how well he does those things.

I know what he does well. Just trying to provide perspective because sometimes I wonder if you notice the things he doesn't do well.
I also take into consideration that he's had the rare fortune of playing with All star caliber players up until the 2011 to 2012 seasons. He's obviously improved as ours original big 3 started to drastically decline. I'm not questioning his 'his play', because he made the most of the situation he was in. I just think it's obvious that without those excellent/elite shooters around him, and his lack of shooting ability - that people will question how much their absence will affect his ability to put up numbers, particularly on the assists side of the equation. (The strongest part of his game and the one above all other skills placing to All Star level talent).

  In the interest of perspective, take a look at the "Qualified" leaders in fg% for 2013 on espn.com. PP was 12th among small forwards, KG was 13th among power forwards, Bass would be 16th among power forwards and Bradley would be 24th (last) among shooting guards. Those are the excellent/elite shooters around Rondo, and he led the league in assists by a decent margin.

 People used to talk about how much Rondo depended on Ray's shooting, that was clearly nonsense. People talk about how much Rondo is dependent on PP and KG, but as they waned as players Rondo became more productive, not less. Why didn't we see him struggle more as their play worsened?

  Look at the team this year. Rondo's not playing well at all. He's integrating himself into the team, and hasn't built up much chemistry with his teammates yet. His team is 26th in the league in fg%, so clearly he's not even surrounded by good shooters. There are only two players in the league averaging better than 1 assist per36 more than Rondo.

  If Rondo was playing as many minutes now as he was last year he'd be just over 2 assists/game lower than last year. He'd be .5 apg out of 2nd place in the league. You're claiming that Rondo would struggle to get assists without PP and KG. Is 9 assists/game "struggling to get assists"? If so, that would be where he is now, assuming he was playing equal minutes.

  What happens to Rondo's assist totals as he becomes healthier? What happens to his assist totals when he and his teammates get used to each other and they get in sync with his passes? What happens to his assist totals if his poor shooting teammates are upgraded to average or a little better than average shooters? I'd say all of these things will push the numbers up. Would you agree?

  If Rondo gets healthier (he will) and develops better chemistry with his teammates (he will) and, over time, the team gets somewhat better shooters (we all hope and pray that they will) then his assist totals will very likely go up. But his assist rate isn't that much lower than it was in the past even now.

  So where's the big dropoff in assists that Rondo will surely experience without KG and PP? You claim to know what Rondo does well. But if you were expecting a big drop in his assists without KG and PP I'd say that you really don't, or at least how well he does those things. It could turn out that you're right, that Rondo's assist rate will stay the same or worsen as Rondo gets healthier and more in sync with his teammates and we get better shooters. But I wouldn't bet the farm on it.

You're claiming that Rondo would struggle to get assists without PP and KG. Is 9 assists/game "struggling to get assists"? If so, that would be where he is now, assuming he was playing equal minutes.

I never claimed that he'd struggle. I merely pointed out that his detractors would say that he's unproven without Pierce and KG and his assists numbers were helped by their great shooting, and the Celtics overall excellent jumpshooting. Particularly without KG who has been an elite jump shooter for Rondo's entire tenure as an All Star point guard.

  You've never claimed he'd struggle? You've never posted anything that attributed Rondo's success to playing with the big three, or that hinted that he'd have trouble being as successful without them? Seriously?

  I gotta say, you're spending quite a bit of effort defending a point that you disagree with in the name of his critics and detractors. I'm sure that they're all very grateful for this selfless gesture of yours.

[chambers]

How many players in their 20's ever got to play with similar team mates like KG, Pierce and Ray Allen in a situation like Rondo's?

  I'd guess a lot more than you think. But are you talking about 2008 big three or the fringe all-stars of the last few years?
 

Has there ever been an All Star point guard that's as poor a shooter as Rondo from the FT line and 3 point line?

  Possibly not. But a 4-time all-star he is. He made those all-star games because of his overall level of play, where he does many things well enough that he's still one of the top guards in the league in spite of his shooting. It's not like he made 1 team as a fluke selection.

  I think a better question is, how many point guards have there been that would have been regular all-stars if they shot (and hit free throws) like Rondo? How many point guards would be regular all-stars if they never scored more than 14 ppg?

  It's true that he's not a great shooter. It's also true that he's been one of the best point guards in the league for a while. It's useful to notice what he does poorly, it's equally useful to notice what he does well and how well he does those things.

I know what he does well. Just trying to provide perspective because sometimes I wonder if you notice the things he doesn't do well.
I also take into consideration that he's had the rare fortune of playing with All star caliber players up until the 2011 to 2012 seasons. He's obviously improved as ours original big 3 started to drastically decline. I'm not questioning his 'his play', because he made the most of the situation he was in. I just think it's obvious that without those excellent/elite shooters around him, and his lack of shooting ability - that people will question how much their absence will affect his ability to put up numbers, particularly on the assists side of the equation. (The strongest part of his game and the one above all other skills placing to All Star level talent).

  In the interest of perspective, take a look at the "Qualified" leaders in fg% for 2013 on espn.com. PP was 12th among small forwards, KG was 13th among power forwards, Bass would be 16th among power forwards and Bradley would be 24th (last) among shooting guards. Those are the excellent/elite shooters around Rondo, and he led the league in assists by a decent margin.

 People used to talk about how much Rondo depended on Ray's shooting, that was clearly nonsense. People talk about how much Rondo is dependent on PP and KG, but as they waned as players Rondo became more productive, not less. Why didn't we see him struggle more as their play worsened?

  Look at the team this year. Rondo's not playing well at all. He's integrating himself into the team, and hasn't built up much chemistry with his teammates yet. His team is 26th in the league in fg%, so clearly he's not even surrounded by good shooters. There are only two players in the league averaging better than 1 assist per36 more than Rondo.

  If Rondo was playing as many minutes now as he was last year he'd be just over 2 assists/game lower than last year. He'd be .5 apg out of 2nd place in the league. You're claiming that Rondo would struggle to get assists without PP and KG. Is 9 assists/game "struggling to get assists"? If so, that would be where he is now, assuming he was playing equal minutes.

  What happens to Rondo's assist totals as he becomes healthier? What happens to his assist totals when he and his teammates get used to each other and they get in sync with his passes? What happens to his assist totals if his poor shooting teammates are upgraded to average or a little better than average shooters? I'd say all of these things will push the numbers up. Would you agree?

  If Rondo gets healthier (he will) and develops better chemistry with his teammates (he will) and, over time, the team gets somewhat better shooters (we all hope and pray that they will) then his assist totals will very likely go up. But his assist rate isn't that much lower than it was in the past even now.

  So where's the big dropoff in assists that Rondo will surely experience without KG and PP? You claim to know what Rondo does well. But if you were expecting a big drop in his assists without KG and PP I'd say that you really don't, or at least how well he does those things. It could turn out that you're right, that Rondo's assist rate will stay the same or worsen as Rondo gets healthier and more in sync with his teammates and we get better shooters. But I wouldn't bet the farm on it.

You're claiming that Rondo would struggle to get assists without PP and KG. Is 9 assists/game "struggling to get assists"? If so, that would be where he is now, assuming he was playing equal minutes.

I never claimed that he'd struggle. I merely pointed out that his detractors would say that he's unproven without Pierce and KG and his assists numbers were helped by their great shooting, and the Celtics overall excellent jumpshooting. Particularly without KG who has been an elite jump shooter for Rondo's entire tenure as an All Star point guard.

  You've never claimed he'd struggle? You've never posted anything that attributed Rondo's success to playing with the big three, or that hinted that he'd have trouble being as successful without them? Seriously?

  I gotta say, you're spending quite a bit of effort defending a point that you disagree with in the name of his critics and detractors. I'm sure that they're all very grateful for this selfless gesture of yours.

I've said it's very possible he'll struggle. I've also said he could come as good or better and he needs time to reach that like all players do. I never said it's a concrete outcome that he'll either be A or B.
 
I'm still shocked that you didn't realize how good the 2012 Celtics were as a shooting team- let alone the last 6 seasons. It's what this team was built around. Efficient possessions via transition, created by hard nosed defensive stops.

In Tim's world, Doc just gave the ball to Rondo and a flashy pass  would mean all those KG turnaround 20 footers over 2 defenders automatically fall. All those Ray Allen daggers with 2 defenders in his face go in because Rondo passed the ball to him.
Right.
Not sure where you missed the memo regarding the jumpshooting philosophy of the 2007- 2013 Celtics though.

I hope he doesn't leave because other than KG he's my favorite player, and he's taken on a part of KG's toughness and heart. I do like to look at both sides of the argument in life though. Something which I'm afraid you don't ever demonstrate. You're just the pro Rondo version in what you despise so much about Larbrd33. The funny thing is he's more open to the other side of the debate than you are. 'Pot calling the kettle black' is the saying I think.

[Vermont Green]

Rondo is intrigued by Free Agency.  Not surprising but by talking about it, I think it is going to scare Danny Ainge into being more likely to trade him.

The logic being that I think DA would be fine with extending Rondo next off season at what I understand would be a contract starting at $15M for the 3 years added on.  But if he starts to believe that Rondo won't extend and will "test" free agency, I think DA trades Rondo.

That logic would explain why they have Rondo out on the court even though he does not appear to be "full strength".  Trading him before the deadline gets the most value back.  That way, he can help a team this year and next.

[Donoghus]

Who wouldn't be intrigued by the possiblity of free agency?

Actually acting on it is a whole other thing.

[BballTim]

In the interest of perspective, take a look at the "Qualified" leaders in fg% for 2013 on espn.com. PP was 12th among small forwards, KG was 13th among power forwards, Bass would be 16th among power forwards and Bradley would be 24th (last) among shooting guards. Those are the excellent/elite shooters around Rondo, and he led the league in assists by a decent margin.

Tim I know you'll defend Rondo no matter what the debate. Unfortunately you're using FG% to try and argue that he hasn't been surrounded by elite jumpshooters for his entire career since 2007-2008. This is simply wrong.
Now the argument here isn't that he's not one of the best passers in the league- because he clearly is. The argument is that his stats benefit from having these sharpshooters around him. Now that he doesn't have these guys, he's going to lose those few extra assists that shooters like KG, Paul and Ray gave him- where other elite point guards may not have that luxury.

Lets look at 2011-12 when KG and Pierce were starting to decline.

NBA assist totals 2011-12 per 40 minutes
Assists per game in different locations on the floor:

At the rim:Assists made directly at the basket (dunks, layups, tip ins)
Nash 6.0
Rondo 4.5
Rubio 4.1
Calderon 4.1

He's 2nd in the league in 'At the rim'. Now he's got KG at number 7 in the league at 'At the rim' FG percentage, and he's also got Bass at number 17- so he's doing well finding these alley oops and layup passes. Avery Bradley contributed to this with his back door cuts and slashing, and Rondo did well to find him for those easy buckets. Bradley had an 'At the rim' % of 65%, and 64% of those 'At the rim' buckets were assisted baskets.
BUT- Kevin Garnett has the number one percentage of assisted buckets at the rim in 2012, with over 80% of those baskets coming from an assist.
Again, Rondo has always done a great job finding KG, but KG has always been a master of getting above the rim even in his old age and using his length and reach to facilitate those lobs and alley oops.
With KG gone, where do these 4.5 'At the rim' assists come from per game?

Lets look at the jumpshooting- where you seem to mock my claim that the Celtics are an 'elite' jumpshooting team.

Assists leading to baskets 10 feet or under per 40 minutes (excluding directly at the rim as listed above)

1)Nash 1.4
2)Calderon 1.0
3)Chris Paul 0.9
4)Tony Parker 0.8
5)Jarret Jack 0.7
6)Mike Conley Jr 0.7
7)Darren Collison...0.7
go down to number 24.. Rajon Rondo at 0.3

Not much action here, although KG was the 2nd best power forward in the NBA from 3-9 feet and 51% of his made baskets were from assists. Bass was a very poor here due to his lack of post game- he'd either shoot a jumper or drive to dunk. He did have 43% of his shots here come from assists, but shot only 25% from the floor at 3-9 feet.

Now here's where it starts to get interesting, and here's where Rondo's critics will point out how good his team actually was at converting his potential assists into made baskets. Further below I'll post the actual shooting stats of his team mates compared to the rest of the league.

Mid range jumpshots 10-15 feet per 40 minutes

Assists leading to made baskets between 10-15 feet of the rim


1)Rondo 1.1
2)Williams 0.9
3)Rose 0.8
4)Jack 0.8
5)Holiday 0.8
6)Conley Jr 0.8
7)Calderon 0.7
Nash 0.7
9)Lowry 0.5
10)Jennings 0.4 11)Parker 0.4 12) Lawson 0.4 13) Knight 0.3 14)Chris Paul 0.3

Long jumpshots 16-23 feet per 40 minutes

Assists leading to made baskets 16-23 feet from the basket.

1)Rajon Rondo 4.1
2)Rose 3.0
3)Nash 2.8
4)Calderon 2.6
5)Jack 2.5
6)Lowry 2.2

3 point shots per 40 minutes

Assists leading to made 3 point baskets


1)Nelson 3.3
2)Rubio 3.2
3)Williams 3.0
4)Parker 3.0
5)Paul 2.8
6)Rondo 2.7
7)Nash 2.7

You can see that shots taken from between 10-15 feet and 16-23 feet, Rondo has an average of 2.4 more assists per game than ANYONE in the rest of the league in 2012.

Why is that?

Well, if we look at his team mates shooting efficiencies compared to the rest of the NBA at their position you can see he was SPOILED with help.

NBA power forwards shot attempts 3-9 feet from basket
In order of shooting %

1)Aldridge
2)Garnett
3)Gasol
4)Griffin
5)Love
6)Millsap

KG= second in the NBA.

NBA power forwards mid range jumpshot shot attempts 10-15 feet from basket

1)Bosh
2)Bass
3)Lee
4)Scola
5)Gasol
6)Nowitzki
7)Aldridge
8)Garnett

Brandon Bass is the second best shooter from 10-15 feet out of NBA power forwards and KG is number 8.

If you look at the percentage of assisted baskets in this 10-15 feet range, you'll find Bass at number 3 in the NBA, and KG at number 7.
In other words, the Celtics/Rondo should get credit for finding Bass and KG for their preferred shot, but Bass and KG were also ELITE jumpshooters from the power forward position- They were both in the top 3

16-23 feet jumpshots by NBA power forwards 2011-12
Guess who the number 2 and 3 power forwards in the NBA were from 16-23 feet. I'll give you 2 guesses.
1)Nowitzki 50%
2)Bass 48%
3)Kevin Garnett 48%
4)Scola 44%
5)Aldridge 43%
6)Gasol 43%

How many of these jumpshots from 16-23 feet were 'assisted baskets'? - in other words....
Who are the leaders at the power forward position in 2011-12 as catch and shoot or catch and one dribble jumpshooters from 16-23 feet from the basket?

1)Brandon Bass 95%
2)Jamison 94.7%
3)Anderson 94%
4)Scola 90%
5)Garnett 89%
6)Gasol 86.1%

So those are the power forwards.
Is it safe to say Rondo was passing to elite jumpshooters Tim?

For arguments sake,
Lets look at Paul Pierce and his jumpshooting in 2011-12 compared to the rest of the NBA's small forwards...


NBA Small forwards mid range jumpshot shot attempts 10-15 feet from basket
1)Iguoadala
2)James
3)Gay
4)Anthony
5)Pierce
6)Durant

Yes, Pierce was better from 10-15 feet in 2011-12 than Kevin Durant. He was ELITE.
Guess what he was from 10-15 feet in 2013 when Rondo was injured for half a season? 2nd in the league behind durant.
From 16-23 feet he was 6th.

If you look at how many of those jumpshots were 'assisted' in 2011-12, Pierce comes in above all of the other top 6 small forwards at 37.2%- even though he's an incredible spot up shooter who can drain it off the dribble, he's also just as good, if not better on the catch and shoot. His 'assisted' ranking is number 6 overall. Rondo gets an assist on the board everytime Pierce catches that pass and drains it. I wonder how he'll fair with Gerald Wallace or even Jeff Green catching that pass instead?

Note that even without Rondo for half a season in 2013, Pierce still had an assisted rate of 38.1%, even higher than 2011-12...

Moving on to...
Long jumpshots 16-23 feet and 3 point baskets by NBA Small forwards per 40 minutes

*Pierce was the 12th best small forward from 16-23 feet.
*He was the 7th best three point shooter.

Now Rondo's been back for 6 games and he's averaging 8.4 assists per 36 minutes. That's 2.2 assists less per game than last season and 3 less assists per game than 2011-12. I won't judge him on anything at the moment because he's recovering.
But the whole argument is that without KG and Pierce and having an elite jumpshooting team around him, he may not be an All Star caliber player.

If he comes back next season, after this off season to further recover/rehab his knee, is he still an All Star with a stat line like 9 assists, 13 points and 6 rebounds a game?

You're saying 'we'll just put better shooters around him', which is basically saying that for Rondo to be an All Star, he may need elite shooters around him.

The critics argument:

*Rondo can't shoot from the line- true
*He can't shoot threes-true
*He's coming of an ACL injury and his return to former athletic range/ability is not certain- true
*He's lost one of the best big men in the NBA in Garnett- more importantly, he's lost one of the best shooters in the NBA at their position.- true
* He's lost one of the best small forwards in the NBA, more importantly- one of the best jumpshooters and three point shooters in the NBA for his position.
*He still has Bass, but Bass doesn't have KG to stretch the floor, and Bass is looking like he'll be traded before he and Rondo get time to play together whilst Rondo's even 75% of his former self.- true?

That being said, he's still...
*arguably the best passer in the NBA
*one of the most competitive players in the NBA
*got championship experience
*has huge value in attracting potential free agents due to his game being based around 'sharing' and getting the ball to players at their spot.
*arguably has the best court vision of anyone- or is in the 1% category of Chris Paul and Steve Nash in this segment.
*Arguably has the best anticipation in the NBA and uses this gift to give his team mates better shots- particularly on the break.

Anyway, hopefully this gives you another perspective as to why he might not be all we hoped he may be without Pierce and KG.

Just so we are clear...

In 2012 the Celtics were the 15th best team from directly 'at the rim' basket percentage with 63%. They were 26th in the league from 3-9 feet with 33%.

Yet they somehow took the Heat to 7 games in the Eastern Conference finals. How did they accomplish this?

By being the number 1 jumpshooting team from 10-15 feet and 16-23 feet. They also had the highest number of assisted field goals from those distances of all teams in the NBA.

http://www.hoopdata.com/teamshotlocs.aspx?yr=2012&type=pg

  Wow. You put a lot of work into that post. Again, I'd like to thank you, on behalf of Rondo's critics, for spending so much time and effort defending a theory that you don't even ascribe to. You might want to edit the post though. I think you slipped up once or twice and put "I" when you meant "they" (meaning the people who would make such an argument).

  But beyond that, there's a certain "can't see the forest for the trees" aspect to all of those stats. It's true that KG and Bass are very good jump shooters, even elite at times (unless you look at Bass's current numbers without Rondo feeding him the ball). So if KG and Bass are great mid-range jump shooters, near the top of their class, why did I bother to point out that they were 13th and 16th in fg% for PFs?

  Because, as it turns out, you can get an assist for any made basket, not just one from 10-23 feet. What you're calling elite shooting is really shooting some of the least efficient shots on the court somewhat better than other people. To illustrate the point, let's combine the shooting for those mid-range and at the rim shots for Bass, KG and a below average outside shooter, say Blake Griffin. Between shots at the rim and those 10-23 foot shots Bass is a combined 4.7/9.8. KG rings in at 5.6/11. Blake gives you 7/11.8.

  Any guesses on which of the three hits the most of their shots from those ranges? Hint: it's not the "elite" shooters. You touched upon what's really happening but didn't really see why it was significant.

  Boston was 15th in fg% at the rim (63%) while they were first in the league at mid-range shots (just over 41%). You also need to understand that they were 3rd in the league in attempts/game from 16-23 feet, 5th from 10-15 feet and *24th* in shots at the rim. So they're taking tons of inefficient shots and not so many efficient shots. That means more attempts per make, that means fewer assists per shot attempt.

  A couple of other random points:

  You said "You're saying 'we'll just put better shooters around him', which is basically saying that for Rondo to be an All Star, he may need elite shooters around him.". What I said was "What happens to his assist totals if his poor shooting teammates are upgraded to average or a little better than average shooters?". I don't think you need to have elite shooters around Rondo to be 15th or a little better in the league in FG%.

  You said "Now that he doesn't have these guys, he's going to lose those few extra assists that shooters like KG, Paul and Ray gave him". Again, that's where he is today when he's not very mobile, very rusty and isn't in sync with his poor shooting teammates. It's fairly likely that his assist totals will go up over time, which would kill your theory (I mean the theory that you're putting forth on the behalf of others despite not believing it at all yourself).

  And when you're looking at reasons we made it to the ECF in 2012 start with our defense, which was 2nd in the league. It's true we shot better than average from mid-range. It's true that Rondo's passing had a lot to do with that. But that's basically making chicken salad out of chicken (droppings) because of the personnel we had.

[BballTim]

I've said it's very possible he'll struggle. I've also said he could come as good or better and he needs time to reach that like all players do. I never said it's a concrete outcome that he'll either be A or B.

  Sorry, I must have been confused. All the times that you've qualified Rondo's accomplishments by mentioning that he was fortunate enough to play with KG/PP/RA what you really meant was you had no idea whether they contributed to his ability to get assists, just that you can't rule out that they might? My bad.

I'm still shocked that you didn't realize how good the 2012 Celtics were as a shooting team- let alone the last 6 seasons. It's what this team was built around. Efficient possessions via transition, created by hard nosed defensive stops.

  I'm well aware of how well the Celts have shot the ball over the last 6 years. We just disagree with the cause, I think Rondo's passing and how well he runs the offense has a lot to do with that, you think he's lucky to be on the court with elite shooters (correction, you don't have any concrete opinions either way). In terms of transition, though, we've pretty much been average or worse in terms of fast breaks over those 6 years.

In Tim's world, Doc just gave the ball to Rondo and a flashy pass  would mean all those KG turnaround 20 footers over 2 defenders automatically fall. All those Ray Allen daggers with 2 defenders in his face go in because Rondo passed the ball to him.
Right.
Not sure where you missed the memo regarding the jumpshooting philosophy of the 2007- 2013 Celtics though.

  I picked up on the 08-13 Celtics philosophy very early on. They protected the rim and ran opposing teams off of three point shots in an attempt to force their opponents to take as many long 2-point shots as possible because it's well known to be the least efficient way to score in the game. You, however, seem to think that the Celts being near the top of the league in 10-23 foot jumpers is the master plan and not what they were left with because they didn't have the personnel to get many shots at the rim or to hit a lot of threes. You might want to re-think that.

I hope he doesn't leave because other than KG he's my favorite player, and he's taken on a part of KG's toughness and heart. I do like to look at both sides of the argument in life though. Something which I'm afraid you don't ever demonstrate.

  Here are your "critic's arguments":

*Rondo can't shoot from the line- true, I've never denied this

*He can't shoot threes-he's never shown himself to be much of a three point shooter, although he's not as bad as his stats indicate. He takes a small enough amount of threes that his end of the quarter (or shot clock) heaves make up a large percentage of his attempts.

*He's coming of an ACL injury and his return to former athletic range/ability is not certain- true, I've argued that there's no reason to assume he won't recover (no concrete evidence if you will) but I haven't guaranteed any level of recovery

*He's lost one of the best big men in the NBA in Garnett- more importantly, he's lost one of the best shooters in the NBA at their position.- true, with certain qualifications, such as he hasn't been able to finish around the rim in traffic very well since 2009 or so and his signature shot is the dreaded 22 footer

* He's lost one of the best small forwards in the NBA, more importantly- one of the best jumpshooters and three point shooters in the NBA for his position. Again, true, although what effect he'll have on Rondo's game is unknown. He has fewer than average of his shots assisted, and he gets more assists than the average sf. It's true that he's a good shooter but he's not the catch and shoot player Ray and KG were, so Rondo's not necessarily racking up the assists when he passes the ball to PP.

*He still has Bass, but Bass doesn't have KG to stretch the floor, and Bass is looking like he'll be traded before he and Rondo get time to play together whilst Rondo's even 75% of his former self.- nebulous on several levels. Nobody knows whether he'll be traded, and you'd have to explain why you think KG stretching the floor helped him much. Stretching the floor keeps defenders out of the lane and makes it easier to get to the rim, Bass (as I'm sure you noticed) takes the bulk of his shots away from the rim.
______________________________________

  These are all consistent with arguments I've made time and again. I don't deny that KG/PP/RA's shooting make it easier for Rondo to get assists, but I do point out things like the fact that KG and PP are generally near the tops at their positions in assists work in the opposite direction, because when Rondo passes them the ball they're more likely to make another pass than many players (to stick with the team, Green or Bass or Bradley, who shoot a lot and pass less). I've made that argument at least a dozen times.

  Likewise, I never deny that Rondo's a poor foul shooter, and I never deny that he hits a higher percentage of his shots because defenders give him space when he has the ball. I never deny that, on it's own, the way teams give Rondo space hurts the offense, I just point out that his other skills are so good that his overall impact on the offense is positive. I must have made that argument at least 50 times over the years.

  When you say "I do like to look at both sides of the argument in life though. Something which I'm afraid you don't ever demonstrate" I think what you really mean is "I don't agree with your opinion".

You're just the pro Rondo version in what you despise so much about Larbrd33. The funny thing is he's more open to the other side of the debate than you are. 'Pot calling the kettle black' is the saying I think.

  See above.

  Edit: that may have been the worst job of quoting I've ever done.

[LooseCannon]

Maybe this is Rondo's way of discouraging teams from trying to trade for him, by making them think that he will only be a rental if they acquire him.  Why give up a lot of assets for Rondo if he will definitely test the free agent market?

[BballTim]

Maybe this is Rondo's way of discouraging teams from trying to trade for him, by making them think that he will only be a rental if they acquire him.  Why give up a lot of assets for Rondo if he will definitely test the free agent market?

  It could be anything. Compare what Rondo said to

 "I think I am going to play this one out. I want to see what it feels like to be a free agent for once in my life. I think I am going to play this one out,".

  That quote came from Paul Pierce before he ultimately re-signed with the team in 2012.  He was in the same position Rondo's in now, never having been a free agent in his career. They like being wooed. It's something to consider, but it's miles away from the chatter we were hearing from players like CP/DH/Melo before their teams were forced to trade them.

[TheTruthFot18]

July 10, 2015: Rondo can sign an estimated five-year, $108 million free-agent contract with the Celtics (2015-16: $18.6M, 2016-17: $20.0M, 2017-18: $21.5M, 2018-19: $23.1M, 2019-20: $24.8M). He’ll be nine years into his NBA career after next season and can thus command a maximum of 30 percent of the salary cap. These numbers are based off next year’s projected cap of $62.1 million and should actually be even higher in 2015.

From Hoopshype via WEEI.

$21 mil/year?? 1. I can't see DA doing that and 2. I can't really see anyone else doing that unless they beyond desperate.

He can't command that much from this team (although if he waits until summer '15 things may change). I want him to stay but if this is the max money he can get I hope that's not the number he has in mind.

[BballTim]

July 10, 2015: Rondo can sign an estimated five-year, $108 million free-agent contract with the Celtics (2015-16: $18.6M, 2016-17: $20.0M, 2017-18: $21.5M, 2018-19: $23.1M, 2019-20: $24.8M). He’ll be nine years into his NBA career after next season and can thus command a maximum of 30 percent of the salary cap. These numbers are based off next year’s projected cap of $62.1 million and should actually be even higher in 2015.

From Hoopshype via WEEI.

$21 mil/year?? 1. I can't see DA doing that and 2. I can't really see anyone else doing that unless they beyond desperate.

He can't command that much from this team (although if he waits until summer '15 things may change). I want him to stay but if this is the max money he can get I hope that's not the number he has in mind.

  I'd be somewhat surprised if we gave that much money to Rondo. But the Celts should have a pretty good idea of Rondo's expectations next summer and act based on that. In other words, you might want to trade Rondo if he's expecting $21M a year, but you don't simply unload him because you don't know what he'll ask for.

[Tr1boy]

July 10, 2015: Rondo can sign an estimated five-year, $108 million free-agent contract with the Celtics (2015-16: $18.6M, 2016-17: $20.0M, 2017-18: $21.5M, 2018-19: $23.1M, 2019-20: $24.8M). He’ll be nine years into his NBA career after next season and can thus command a maximum of 30 percent of the salary cap. These numbers are based off next year’s projected cap of $62.1 million and should actually be even higher in 2015. WEEI.com

That would be unbelievable money for Rondo.   

That is Paul Pierce, Ray Allen, KG (at their peaks), Durant, Lebron money.