Author Topic: 11.9% chance of winning the draft lottery as of today  (Read 93529 times)

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Re: 11.9% chance of winning the draft lottery as of today
« Reply #75 on: January 26, 2014, 08:47:22 PM »

Offline bucknersrevenge

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Going to be very happy any which way we land one of Embiid/Parker/Wiggins or Exum. Think they're all going to be superstars, with Embiid potentially developing into a legitimate franchise changer.

See, people keep putting Exum in that category and I'm not sure why. Okay, he played a nice game at the Nike Hoop Summit and the U19 Tournament. Big deal. Would've liked to see this kid play a season against college talent. I do hear great things about the kid's acumen for the game and his overall makeup. I question whether he has the scoring instincts to be a full-time 2guard which is likely his position in the pros. Plus he has to work on his shot. Honestly I think I'm all set with adding another guard that has to work on his shot. Can someone tell me why we should rate Exum so high? Serious question.

FWIW, I think if Ainge doesn't end up with a top 3 pick he may try to move the pick.
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Re: 11.9% chance of winning the draft lottery as of today
« Reply #76 on: January 26, 2014, 09:33:35 PM »

Offline Boston Garden Leprechaun

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well Utah has passed us, we are only 1 win in front of Philly for the 3rd best odds , only 2 and a half in front of Orlando for 2nd best odds . I think Orlando will start winning more once Vucevic comes back .

Things are looking good for the C's!

orlando and the sixers should pass us. I can easily see us with the second to worst record in the league.
LET'S GO CELTICS!

Re: 11.9% chance of winning the draft lottery as of today
« Reply #77 on: January 26, 2014, 10:10:50 PM »

Offline gar

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Up from 8.8% in just one week. Picks 1-6 are strong this year. Aaron Gordon is no slouch. Neither is the kid from down under. So we are good to go. Question is who do you build around in the meantime. Green and Rondo are not reliable scorers. If Bradley is our mainstay we are in real trouble. He is the opposite of clutch.


Re: 11.9% chance of winning the draft lottery as of today
« Reply #78 on: January 26, 2014, 10:41:42 PM »

Offline Boston Garden Leprechaun

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Up from 8.8% in just one week. Picks 1-6 are strong this year. Aaron Gordon is no slouch. Neither is the kid from down under. So we are good to go. Question is who do you build around in the meantime. Green and Rondo are not reliable scorers. If Bradley is our mainstay we are in real trouble. He is the opposite of clutch.

AB is  a poor man's melo. volume shooter.  ;)
LET'S GO CELTICS!

Re: 11.9% chance of winning the draft lottery as of today
« Reply #79 on: January 26, 2014, 11:12:12 PM »

Offline Onslaught

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Up from 8.8% in just one week. Picks 1-6 are strong this year. Aaron Gordon is no slouch. Neither is the kid from down under. So we are good to go. Question is who do you build around in the meantime. Green and Rondo are not reliable scorers. If Bradley is our mainstay we are in real trouble. He is the opposite of clutch.

AB is  a poor man's melo. volume shooter.  ;)
Hey, no need to be insulting. AB knows how to play D.
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Re: 11.9% chance of winning the draft lottery as of today
« Reply #80 on: January 27, 2014, 02:19:33 AM »

Offline chambers

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Going to be very happy any which way we land one of Embiid/Parker/Wiggins or Exum. Think they're all going to be superstars, with Embiid potentially developing into a legitimate franchise changer.

See, people keep putting Exum in that category and I'm not sure why. Okay, he played a nice game at the Nike Hoop Summit and the U19 Tournament. Big deal. Would've liked to see this kid play a season against college talent. I do hear great things about the kid's acumen for the game and his overall makeup. I question whether he has the scoring instincts to be a full-time 2guard which is likely his position in the pros. Plus he has to work on his shot. Honestly I think I'm all set with adding another guard that has to work on his shot. Can someone tell me why we should rate Exum so high? Serious question.

FWIW, I think if Ainge doesn't end up with a top 3 pick he may try to move the pick.

My wife's family lives in Hopkinton, MA but we live in Australia. I've seen Exum play a few times.

He's 6 foot 6 and growing, he's still a baby physically like Giannis on the Bucks.
He's got a nice stroke and it will improve because of his work ethic.
A way to summarize him and why he's so good is the combination of his dribble penetration skills and athleticism. His length and springs make him an incredible on and off ball defender and he's got the size of Joe Johnson with the spring of Russell Westbrook- he literally burns the entire court with players lagging behind.
When he finishes on the break it's almost guaranteed that he'll end up on the floor under the backboard padding to stop his momentum.
Think of Westbrook in the open court. Think of Derrick Rose's aggression combined with a point guard's IQ. He's almost relentless at trying to pick an opening and attack the basket and force the defense to lose cognition.

He takes contact mid air and finishes and his shooting stroke is mechanically nice. I'm not sure if he'll play a shooting guard or a point guard but he has size and length and agility. His Wingspan is almost 6 feet 10.

He's basically a shooting guard version of Nicola Batum, except he attacks the basket more and is a game changer on both ends. The kind of player you can put on either the PG or SG, and if he puts on enough muscle even the SF.
He's got some Tony Parker-esque moves in the key where he breaks down a defender and plants his feet with a single step, then pivots with head fakes to score easily. The Australian game is very European but his father played for North Carolina so he's had that American influence on his game since he was in a diaper.

I mean he's got EVERYTHING going for him. Athleticism, size, finishes under contact, good shooting mechanics, length, agility AND he loves to play defense. Combine all of these with his IQ and you're looking at a mix between Westbrooks athleticism and Hardens IQ. He just needs to turn his shooting mechanics into a 40% three shooter which I would say will be pretty easy for him with his work ethic.
I'd pick him over Wiggins and after Parker of all the wings. Type in 'Exum inside out dribble' or look up some of his crossovers.
Kyrie Irving used to play here as a junior and he is better than Kyrie was at his age.
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Re: 11.9% chance of winning the draft lottery as of today
« Reply #81 on: January 27, 2014, 02:30:23 AM »

Offline guava_wrench

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Up from 8.8% in just one week. Picks 1-6 are strong this year. Aaron Gordon is no slouch. Neither is the kid from down under. So we are good to go. Question is who do you build around in the meantime. Green and Rondo are not reliable scorers. If Bradley is our mainstay we are in real trouble. He is the opposite of clutch.

AB is  a poor man's melo. volume shooter.  ;)
Nonsense. AB has been in the league a few years already and has established otherwise when on a decent team.

Are you really going to define him by a few month on a horrible team? Someone had to shoot. Sully is doing the same thing. Green doesn't, and we end up exasperated when Green isn't more aggressive.

AB was forced into a role that he shouldn't be in because he is on a bad team. Surround him with a decent team and he will play a more appropriate role as he did in the past.

Re: 11.9% chance of winning the draft lottery as of today
« Reply #82 on: January 27, 2014, 04:06:23 AM »

Offline AidaCelt

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Firstly, I live in Melbourne, Australia and have seen an extremely small sample size of Exum. Yes, he is playing against inferior opposition and I would love to see him against college talent. The scouting reports and video that most have seen though are against the best talent in the world against similar age opposition. Gives a reasonable indicator of where he sits overall. My biggest worry is if he isn't able to build on his skinny frame. On the plus side, he has lateral quickness, great first step and full court speed, longs arms... all the key indicators that we will make it at the next level.

I remember watching his old man play in the NBL (National Basketball League) years ago and he had the hops and could ball. Glad he stuck to live permanently in Australia.

Secondly, from my limited viewings (watch a few college games a week and read plenty of reports), Embiid seems to have the highest upside/ risk factor and then you have Parker and Wiggins. I wouldn't put Exum too far behind them.

The players I'm a little uncertain of at this stage are Randle (uses strength at college level which doesn't always translate, and doesn't have the size to play PF in NBA) and Smart (I don't really know what it is... I just don't see his skills ever being at the elite level in the NBA).
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Re: 11.9% chance of winning the draft lottery as of today
« Reply #83 on: January 27, 2014, 04:43:50 AM »

Offline LarBrd33

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I think the more relevant number is what % chance do we have of landing a top 3 pick?  also, anything in the top 5 is probably a huge win for us this summer
The 11% thing is misleading.

If the season ended today we'd have:

12% chance at #1
13% chance at #2
13% chance at #3
9% chance at #4
35% chance at #5
16% chance at #6

So basically a 38% chance of getting into the Top 3.  Statistically, it's more likely our pick ends up in the Top 3 than it ends up at #5.   ;)

MOre importantly... 98% chance at a Top 6 pick in a draft where the Top 6 include Andrew Wiggins, Jabari Parker, Joel Embiid, Dante Exum, Marcus Smart and Julius Randle.

Our pick has BY FAR the most trade value of any asset on this team... and that definitely includes Rondo.  If keep on this pace, that pick is pure gold. 

Re: 11.9% chance of winning the draft lottery as of today
« Reply #84 on: January 27, 2014, 07:14:59 AM »

Offline clover

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Firstly, I live in Melbourne, Australia and have seen an extremely small sample size of Exum. Yes, he is playing against inferior opposition and I would love to see him against college talent. The scouting reports and video that most have seen though are against the best talent in the world against similar age opposition. Gives a reasonable indicator of where he sits overall. My biggest worry is if he isn't able to build on his skinny frame. On the plus side, he has lateral quickness, great first step and full court speed, longs arms... all the key indicators that we will make it at the next level.

I remember watching his old man play in the NBL (National Basketball League) years ago and he had the hops and could ball. Glad he stuck to live permanently in Australia.

Secondly, from my limited viewings (watch a few college games a week and read plenty of reports), Embiid seems to have the highest upside/ risk factor and then you have Parker and Wiggins. I wouldn't put Exum too far behind them.

The players I'm a little uncertain of at this stage are Randle (uses strength at college level which doesn't always translate, and doesn't have the size to play PF in NBA) and Smart (I don't really know what it is... I just don't see his skills ever being at the elite level in the NBA).

I agree with you on your rankings and concerns with those top prospects. Is Exum's frame really that narrow? Hard to tell just from pics, but he looks pretty good for an 18yo in what I could find:

https://www.google.com/search?q=dante+exum+photo&espv=210&es_sm=122&tbm=isch&source=iu&imgil=Z5sqynwBTA58XM%253A%253Bhttps%253A%252F%252Fencrypted-tbn2.gstatic.com%252Fimages%253Fq%253Dtbn%253AANd9GcR-P2D0WhLbirjp0N9IDepCV5T1iqfUDcD4bo6Ds-Fx_nDaTDXq%253B215%253B323%253BjC7YzYDwLQj4GM%253Bhttp%25253A%25252F%25252Fprague2013.fiba.com%25252Fpages%25252Feng%25252Ffe%25252F13%25252Ffu19m%25252Fplayer%25252Fp%25252Feid%25252F9616%25252Fpid%25252F88598%25252Frid%25252F%25252Fsid%25252F9616%25252Ftid%25252F239%25252Fprofile.html&sa=X&ei=3UzmUvD7D-jLsQSSxYHoDw&ved=0CCsQ9QEwAQ&biw=1278&bih=683#facrc=_&imgdii=_&imgrc=Z5sqynwBTA58XM%253A%3BjC7YzYDwLQj4GM%3Bhttp%253A%252F%252Fwww.fiba.com%252Fimages%252Fweb%252FEvents%252F13%252FFU19M%252Fheadshots%252FAUS%252F_215%252FSmall_7.DanteEXUM_Australia_.JPG%3Bhttp%253A%252F%252Fprague2013.fiba.com%252Fpages%252Feng%252Ffe%252F13%252Ffu19m%252Fplayer%252Fp%252Feid%252F9616%252Fpid%252F88598%252Frid%252F%252Fsid%252F9616%252Ftid%252F239%252Fprofile.html%3B215%3B323

Re: 11.9% chance of winning the draft lottery as of today
« Reply #85 on: January 27, 2014, 07:03:59 PM »

Offline lightspeed5

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I think the more relevant number is what % chance do we have of landing a top 3 pick?  also, anything in the top 5 is probably a huge win for us this summer
The 11% thing is misleading.

If the season ended today we'd have:

12% chance at #1
13% chance at #2
13% chance at #3
9% chance at #4
35% chance at #5
16% chance at #6

So basically a 38% chance of getting into the Top 3.  Statistically, it's more likely our pick ends up in the Top 3 than it ends up at #5.   ;)

MOre importantly... 98% chance at a Top 6 pick in a draft where the Top 6 include Andrew Wiggins, Jabari Parker, Joel Embiid, Dante Exum, Marcus Smart and Julius Randle.

Our pick has BY FAR the most trade value of any asset on this team... and that definitely includes Rondo.  If keep on this pace, that pick is pure gold.
we're not trading that pick, that would be foolish. we got brad stevens to develop young college talent, not to trade draft picks for overpriced guys already on contract.

Re: 11.9% chance of winning the draft lottery as of today
« Reply #86 on: January 27, 2014, 07:25:20 PM »

Offline Yoki_IsTheName

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Am I the only one who feel "dirty" because I'm starting to be a little bit optimistic the more we lose.

I want to apologize to LarBrd33. I'm slowly, reluctantly getting what you meant from the start of the season.

I'm so sorry. But it still feels... wrong.
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C: Jermaine O'neal / Ben Wallace

Re: 11.9% chance of winning the draft lottery as of today
« Reply #87 on: January 27, 2014, 07:37:37 PM »

Offline lightspeed5

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Am I the only one who feel "dirty" because I'm starting to be a little bit optimistic the more we lose.

I want to apologize to LarBrd33. I'm slowly, reluctantly getting what you meant from the start of the season.

I'm so sorry. But it still feels... wrong.
basketball is a game at the end of the day. games require strategy. this is a strategy made by the great danny ainge. we did it in 2007 to get in the lotto. we're doing it again.

Re: 11.9% chance of winning the draft lottery as of today
« Reply #88 on: January 27, 2014, 08:41:48 PM »

Offline AidaCelt

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Clover, yes Dante is skinny. But he's only 18. He's not that different to most 18 year olds. His dad (Cecil) wasn't a big guy though and he seems to have a frame that he'll need to work extremely hard to pack on the muscle. If he can do that though, he could be anything
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Re: 11.9% chance of winning the draft lottery as of today
« Reply #89 on: January 27, 2014, 09:03:57 PM »

Offline Quetzalcoatl

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I know Embiid is the best player, but I am almost rooting for us to get a worse pick so we draft Exum.  He will be super entertaining at the very least and it's a more plausible thing to root for, anyway.

There are lots of SGs with good size later in the draft though that are interesting. I like Garry Harris (6'4"), TJ Warren (6'7"), and Bogdan Bogdanovich (6'5).  I randomly really like Bogdan2, I think he will surprise people after a year or two. 

I am starting to think we should trade down our ATL/Nets pick for an even later first rounder + a second rounder, since this really is such a deep draft and we're starting multiple d-leaguers.  I would rather have two Euro guys that we can stash or play depending on how far along they are than someone undersized like Montrezel Harrell or Adreian Payne (who is also old)