Just doesn't add up that Rondo is coming back now

[Quetzalcoatl]

The title of this thread makes it seem like it is unlikely Danny won't trade Rondo, but then OP gives 4 examples and decides that the "wildcard" one that contradicts the other three must be the plan Danny is going with.

I love Rondo, he is my favorite player, but I am open to an offer.  Rondo can sell tickets himself - think of the all-star voting last year - and has consistently been in the top of jersey sales for the last few years.  It isn't crazy that another money minded team would overpay for him in a trade.  There are some dumb owners out there

[BballTim]

Moves are happening now because other teams are willing to make deals now to shore up their rotations. Plus I think Danny is scared that Crawford's value would decline if he's no longer starting.

Rondo is coming back because he's healthy and ready to take that step.

I don't see why the two trades and Rondo are connected in some grand master plan beyond the basic facts.

i don't think your getting what i'm saying and you also strengthened my point.

Why does it matter if JCraws value diminishes once Rondo comesback. What is the point of Rondo coming back?

To make our team better yes? Many feel having Jcraw as a backup instead of Pressey or JB would be better. In some ways i agree to this. But then you trade him? You also trade Lee who is a decent backup SG. Right now we don't have a SG with avg size in the lineup

So again, you are trading away talent for mainly plan for the future, like team is not going to be as good, but you are bringing Rondo back to want to make the team better (lessening chances to draft a high pick). So which way is it?

  The expectation that it would all be one way (get worse by trading away players with no real future on the team) or the other (get better by playing Rondo) is fairly naive. Management doesn't have a meeting at the beginning of the season, decide whether they want to try to win or go for the 1st pick in the draft and then base all of their moves single-mindedly on that outcome.

  Danny realizes that the team isn't going to contend this year so he's basing his personnel moves on strengthening the team in the long run. He's not going to give up assets to improve the team in the short term and he's going to make moves that give us more assets and flexibility going forward. He's not going to dump Sully to get worse, but he'll try and trade players with no future on the team for assets if possible.

  It's clearly true that it's better in the long run for the team to be as bad as possible in order to get the best draft pick possible if they aren't contenders. Winning some more games this year doesn't make the team better next year or the year after, neither does missing the lottery. But people who favor this approach really underestimate a team's interest in fielding a competitive team and winning some games.

[Tr1boy]

I'm with winsomme on this one

Forget Danny, Rondo for a sec. The end goal to all of this madness is to be able to contend and win another championship. 

Rondo + today's team with or without Bass, Green, Hump is not going to win you anything but 7th or 8th place in the playoffs.

You need at least one more key talent though its looking more and more like you need 3 (in total).

Its very difficult to orchastrate a trade to bring in a big name talent in the league. Especially if those teams are doing well. Its also difficult to entice FA's to come play for you and also committ large amounts of dollars to them.

Danny has a perfect way out and that is to draft a top pick or two this upcoming draft. Unlike past year drafts where there might be only 3 top players and the rest , there are alot more quality players.  So good in fact, 2 of them plus Rondo could get us into the playoffs as early as next season.

2014 draft vs Rondo. If i had to choose one, some won't like to hear this, but i'm choosing the draft and having a chance to draft high. This doesn't mean we quit playing, but Danny can help the tank

[LarBrd33]

Danny wants to rebuild. He is looking fwd to the draft. So Rondo coming back could potentially complicate his plan, especially if he plays well.

Maybe Ainge just isn't uptight about where the Celtics end up drafting and can roll with it no matter which slot the pick ends up being.

I don't think Danny is that good to take this risk

It's not about risk, it's about trying to micro-manage draft position being a silly pursuit that is probably not worth the effort.

Top five pick or bust is a moronic plan that is almost certainly not Ainge's intention because he is just not that stupid.

Top 5 or Bust isn't really what is being considered here. One point being made is that Rondo coming back now in and of itself does little to help the rebuilding process but it may severely hinder it...

Except for the fact that actually seeing how the team performs around Rondo helps evaluate player personnel and identify strategies for rebuilding.

This is pretty vague. What kind of strategies are you talking about?

How does this year's version of Bradley perform with Rondo on offense? How is the team defense?

Is there chemistry between Rondo and Sullinger? Didn't get to see much of that last season.

Does Rondo's presence in the offense help create better shots for Jeff Green, making him a better player? Or is Green not a piece to keep?

Even the very basic question of what does a Brad Stevens offense look like with Rondo at the helm? What does Stevens need to do to get the most out of Rondo?

All of these questions relate to Ainge's plans for the roster going forward.

Solid points Lucky.

I still think trading Rondo is very much on the table... but over the course of the next 16 games, Ainge is going to have a lot of options to consider.  I'm prepared for just about anything.  I'm excited to see what happens.

My ideal scenario:  Keeping ROndo and still landing a Top 5 pick.  I don't know how that is possible, though.

[LooseCannon]

Its very difficult to orchastrate a trade to bring in a big name talent in the league. Especially if those teams are doing well. Its also difficult to entice FA's to come play for you and also committ large amounts of dollars to them.

Danny has a perfect way out and that is to draft a top pick or two this upcoming draft. Unlike past year drafts where there might be only 3 top players and the rest , there are alot more quality players.  So good in fact, 2 of them plus Rondo could get us into the playoffs as early as next season.

Please list for me:
The big name talents traded in the past three years
The top free agents who signed somewhere new int he past three years
The superstars drafted in the past three years

[LarBrd33]

I'm with winsomme on this one

Forget Danny, Rondo for a sec. The end goal to all of this madness is to be able to contend and win another championship. 

Rondo + today's team with or without Bass, Green, Hump is not going to win you anything but 7th or 8th place in the playoffs.

You need at least one more key talent though its looking more and more like you need 3.

Its very difficult to orchastrate a trade to bring in a big name talent in the league. Especially if those teams are doing well. Its also difficult to entice FA's to come play for you and also committ large amounts of dollars to them.

Danny has a perfect way out and that is to draft a top pick or two this upcoming draft. Unlike past year drafts where there might be only 3 top players and the rest , there are alot more quality players.  So good in fact, 2 of them plus Rondo could get us into the playoffs as early as next season.

2014 draft vs Rondo. If i had to choose one, some won't like to hear this, but i'm choosing the draft and having a chance to draft high. This doesn't mean we quit playing, but Danny can help the tank

It's just business.  It's nothing against Rondo.  You just illustrated why I keep banging the "trading ROndo makes sense" drum.

I do not believe you could trade Rondo for a Top 5 pick in this draft.

In essence, a Top 5 pick in this draft has far more trade value than Rajon Rondo.  Does anyone disagree?... and if you disagree, I think Boston should promptly trade Rondo for Wiggins/Parker/Embiid/Randle/Exum at the soonest possible opportunity.

Say you're with me on my statement that Rondo has less trade value than the Top 5 pick.  Good... let's move on from that perspective:


Since I've come to that conclusion... that Rondo has less trade value than a Top 5 pick, it just makes sense to trade Rondo.  Trading ROndo will get you several assets... you'll end up getting a Top 5 pick by bottoming out.   Even if you don't intend to keep the Top 5 pick, we've established at this point that the Top 5 pick will have MORE trade value than Rajon Rondo.  It's perfectly reasonable to assume we could trade that Top 5 pick for a player BETTER than Rondo.  The end result would be a player BETTER than Rondo + the boatload of assets you acquired by trading Rondo. 

Perhaps my premise is off and Rondo is worth more than a Top 5 pick in the 2014 draft, but I sincerely doubt it. 

Rondo = X
Assets = Y
Top 5 Pick = Z

X = Y

Z > X

Clearly Z + Y is significantly greater than X

[manl_lui]

6. He's ready to play.

and??  Definitely you shouldn't sit out a player that is ready to play and needed. But again like i said, having Rondo back sort of backfires into Danny's plan.

Danny doesn't even know what his plans are. We cannot possibly keep Rondo out when he is ready to play. Having Rondo come back soon won't devastate our plans. You don't expect Rondo and right away produce 20, 12 and 10 right? He has a lot of rust to shake off, and not to mention he might be a lot more careful with his knee, so the mentality might change. He won't be getting much rebounds, and with limited minutes, I doubt he will produce even 15 and 10. My numbers for him are around 10 and 6 the first 10-20 games back. And by then, 60 games already has passed. Rondo by himself won't change our team much.

Next year is a different story.

[GreenWarrior]

danny has made this teams' options flexible. it's the best anyone could hope for.

every move we've made leading up to tonight has been made to keep our options open. the acquisition of bayless, the value(albeit low) that Crawford still possessed plus we clearly weren't going to extend him or start him over Bradley and pressey being a better natural pg made him expendable.

rondo may or may not be showcased but we're set up to where if the right offer comes along we could move forward.

if rondo isn't traded I bet danny leans more toward doing something similar to what he did in '07 - '08 and go all in to make us immediate contenders again. but the deciding factor in that is what kind of draft pick we get.

we're flexible to do just about anything.

[Tr1boy]

Its very difficult to orchastrate a trade to bring in a big name talent in the league. Especially if those teams are doing well. Its also difficult to entice FA's to come play for you and also committ large amounts of dollars to them.

Danny has a perfect way out and that is to draft a top pick or two this upcoming draft. Unlike past year drafts where there might be only 3 top players and the rest , there are alot more quality players.  So good in fact, 2 of them plus Rondo could get us into the playoffs as early as next season.

Please list for me:
The big name talents traded in the past three years
The top free agents who signed somewhere new int he past three years
The superstars drafted in the past three years

The big name talents traded in the past three years
- Harden
The top free agents who signed somewhere new int he past three years
- Bosh, Lebron, Wade, DHoward
The superstars drafted in the past three years
- Anthony Davis, Kyrie Irving

Pretty difficult to entice FA or make a trade to get them. Drafts have also been hard , but again this years crop and even 2015 are considered pretty deep. After that , you might have to wait another 3 to 5 years for another big draft

[Chris]

Chris you make some interesting points. But this can't be all about Rondo's happyness.  Right now it looks like, Rondo is going to be back, he is going to be back, and lets see what happens.

There is no agenda (though you would think , its lets win). When you get a player back, especially someone like Rondo, you are not playing them to mainly warm them up. The goal is to warm them up to win. isn't that right? 

But if this is not the plan, then this thread wouldn't exist. I would understand the main goal is to warm up Rondo, then trade the other assets, and sit him down for the rest of the year. But it is very unclear instead. 

In addition Danny interested in Asik a month earlier,  makes things even foggier.

You are overthinking this.  Rondo is playing because he is healthy.  Danny makes deals that make sense. 

Danny was interested in Asik, because he saw an opportunity to trade for a good player who fit a need for the team in the long and short term, for a bargain price (two repetitive talents and a non-prime draft pick). 

You are too focussed on plans.  Danny isn't forming elaborate schemes, he is making moves based on what it in the best interest of the team.  He knows that he can't have a narrow view of a "plan", because that limits the chance of success.  But, if he makes every move with the thought of how it can help the team get better going forward, then he puts them in a good position.

All of the moves help the team for the future.  That includes Rondo coming back when he is healthy.

But I also think you are under-thinking this. Danny certainly recognizes the value of a top 5 pick in this draft and also recognizes that Rondo coming back at this point makes the chances of getting that pick less likely.

The questions is what is he going to do about it...if anything?

No, I am completely taking that into consideration.  But I don't think Danny is THAT concerned.  I think his goal is to develop players and maximize assets, while putting as good a product on the court as he can within those perameters.

Danny knows that getting a top 5 pick would be great.  But that isn't even guaranteed by tanking.  They have already won too much to really compete with the real bottom dwellers to be guaranteed a top 5 pick.  So, it comes down to the lottery.  And it is not worth risking the relationship with Rondo (and his agent) to antagonize him right now. 

Danny takes everything into consideration, but I just don't think its all a grand plan and conspiracy.  He weighs his options and goes with the ones that give him the most flexibility and upside.  And bringing Rondo back now, while continuing to move forward on the other moves he has been trying to make all year does that.

It keeps Rondo happy.  Gives them a look at him before the deadline while also showcasing him a bit. 

[Jailan34]

6. He's ready to play.

and??  Definitely you shouldn't sit out a player that is ready to play and needed. But again like i said, having Rondo back sort of backfires into Danny's plan.

Danny doesn't even know what his plans are. We cannot possibly keep Rondo out when he is ready to play. Having Rondo come back soon won't devastate our plans. You don't expect Rondo and right away produce 20, 12 and 10 right? He has a lot of rust to shake off, and not to mention he might be a lot more careful with his knee, so the mentality might change. He won't be getting much rebounds, and with limited minutes, I doubt he will produce even 15 and 10. My numbers for him are around 10 and 6 the first 10-20 games back. And by then, 60 games already has passed. Rondo by himself won't change our team much.

Next year is a different story.

I think 10-6 is hoping for a little too much scoring from RR playing 20 minutes a game. While he's under his minutes limit I see him averaging 6 pts and 8 assists, he won't look to score much or at all I'd guess, and will focus on passing and trying to get others easy looks.

[Tr1boy]

6. He's ready to play.

and??  Definitely you shouldn't sit out a player that is ready to play and needed. But again like i said, having Rondo back sort of backfires into Danny's plan.

Danny doesn't even know what his plans are. We cannot possibly keep Rondo out when he is ready to play. Having Rondo come back soon won't devastate our plans. You don't expect Rondo and right away produce 20, 12 and 10 right? He has a lot of rust to shake off, and not to mention he might be a lot more careful with his knee, so the mentality might change. He won't be getting much rebounds, and with limited minutes, I doubt he will produce even 15 and 10. My numbers for him are around 10 and 6 the first 10-20 games back. And by then, 60 games already has passed. Rondo by himself won't change our team much.

Next year is a different story.

i bet he will. If Rondo can help us win 10 close games, that is the difference between a top 5 pick and having a pick in the 7-11 range.

If Rondo is back, you can't bench him. You can't tell him to go easy. I wouldn't want to see that.

I think some fans want Rondo back, for him to play well, but for us to lose games.  Your sort of playing with fire if you want this to happen, bc we might end up winning

[manl_lui]

6. He's ready to play.

and??  Definitely you shouldn't sit out a player that is ready to play and needed. But again like i said, having Rondo back sort of backfires into Danny's plan.

Danny doesn't even know what his plans are. We cannot possibly keep Rondo out when he is ready to play. Having Rondo come back soon won't devastate our plans. You don't expect Rondo and right away produce 20, 12 and 10 right? He has a lot of rust to shake off, and not to mention he might be a lot more careful with his knee, so the mentality might change. He won't be getting much rebounds, and with limited minutes, I doubt he will produce even 15 and 10. My numbers for him are around 10 and 6 the first 10-20 games back. And by then, 60 games already has passed. Rondo by himself won't change our team much.

Next year is a different story.

i bet he will. If Rondo can help us win 10 close games, that is the difference between a top 5 pick and having a pick in the 7-11 range.

If Rondo is back, you can't bench him. You can't tell him to go easy. I wouldn't want to see that.

I think some fans want Rondo back, for him to play well, but for us to lose games.  Your sort of playing with fire if you want this to happen, bc we might end up winning

Having the worst record in the NBA doesn't always guarantee us a top pick. Pierce was injured back in 2007, came back in February and we had like what the 2nd worst record by got awarded the 5th pick? We had a 24 win record that year and got a 5th pick.

Seattle got 31 wins and got rewarded a 2nd pick with Durant.

Portland got 32 wins and got the lottery pick

Rondo himself WILL not get us 20 more wins this season. And as said - returning from injury, limited minutes, he won't be Rondo Rondo early on. I say he will play about 10 games with limited minutes. Those 10 games he won't even be contributing much.

[guava_wrench]

Not playing Rondo when he is healthy would be idiotic. You would end up with an unhappy Rondo. Unhappy Rondo means he loses value for us because he either (1) leaves as a FA or (2) has to be traded for pennies on the dollar as is the normal case with disgruntled players.

Teams cannot lose on purpose. The league would probably penalize them and take away a draft pick. They can trade away talent making their team too bad to win, but just sitting down Rondo when he is healthy and willing will have repercussions.

It also takes time to recover. CP3 was not his normal self when he came back from serious injury. Rose was not very effective early in the season. We don't know how long it will take for Rondo to get back to his former level of play. This will only happen if he starts playing.

The better Rondo is, the more valuable he is to us or to others. Talk about the 2014 draft versus winning is being blown out of proportion by the OP due to a very narrow view of how things should be managed. Ainge needs to maximize his assets. Since Rondo is already on the team, getting him back to his peak is the #1 way to increase our assets. If you waste Rondo and still don't end up with a top pick, you just made your team into a perennial loser.

The Celtics are not playing a video game. They are in the real world an moves have real world repercussions. Crawford and Lee had little value for the C's so move them were obvious moves. Playing Rondo is also an obvious move as he needs to get back in shape (and he is NOT yet in shape).

[Tr1boy]

Chris you make some interesting points. But this can't be all about Rondo's happyness.  Right now it looks like, Rondo is going to be back, he is going to be back, and lets see what happens.

There is no agenda (though you would think , its lets win). When you get a player back, especially someone like Rondo, you are not playing them to mainly warm them up. The goal is to warm them up to win. isn't that right? 

But if this is not the plan, then this thread wouldn't exist. I would understand the main goal is to warm up Rondo, then trade the other assets, and sit him down for the rest of the year. But it is very unclear instead. 

In addition Danny interested in Asik a month earlier,  makes things even foggier.

You are overthinking this.  Rondo is playing because he is healthy.  Danny makes deals that make sense. 

Danny was interested in Asik, because he saw an opportunity to trade for a good player who fit a need for the team in the long and short term, for a bargain price (two repetitive talents and a non-prime draft pick). 

You are too focussed on plans.  Danny isn't forming elaborate schemes, he is making moves based on what it in the best interest of the team.  He knows that he can't have a narrow view of a "plan", because that limits the chance of success.  But, if he makes every move with the thought of how it can help the team get better going forward, then he puts them in a good position.

All of the moves help the team for the future.  That includes Rondo coming back when he is healthy.

But I also think you are under-thinking this. Danny certainly recognizes the value of a top 5 pick in this draft and also recognizes that Rondo coming back at this point makes the chances of getting that pick less likely.

The questions is what is he going to do about it...if anything?

No, I am completely taking that into consideration.  But I don't think Danny is THAT concerned.  I think his goal is to develop players and maximize assets, while putting as good a product on the court as he can within those perameters.

Danny knows that getting a top 5 pick would be great.  But that isn't even guaranteed by tanking.  They have already won too much to really compete with the real bottom dwellers to be guaranteed a top 5 pick.  So, it comes down to the lottery.  And it is not worth risking the relationship with Rondo (and his agent) to antagonize him right now. 

Danny takes everything into consideration, but I just don't think its all a grand plan and conspiracy.  He weighs his options and goes with the ones that give him the most flexibility and upside.  And bringing Rondo back now, while continuing to move forward on the other moves he has been trying to make all year does that.

It keeps Rondo happy.  Gives them a look at him before the deadline while also showcasing him a bit.

Chris i think you care about Rondo more than anything. But Rondo is not Michael Jordan. He alone cannot help us get to the promise land. I don't care what he did in the past in  the playoffs, without some more help, no way he can do it.

I'm looking fwd to somehow make Rondo + 2014-2015 draft work. But Danny has to step in.  For Rondo to get his feet wet to prepare for next year imo is a little silly. So either he is coming back in hopes to get traded or the team is looking to win and get into the playoffs. Brad Stevens has not stopped pressing on the gas pedal and will do everything possible to win games. 

But this all equals for us to possibly fail in the 2014 draft and get nowhere in the short term/long term