Jeff Green so far this year: Better, worse or what you expected?

[Celtics18]

He's been more or less the same player as the one I've been watching since his rookie year.  His fluctuation in stats are only due to fluctuations in minutes and role.  He is what he always has been.  Not surprised at all. 

The folks who thought he'd made some leap into super-stardom didn't know what they were talking about.  He's 27 years old.  He already reached his peak.

You know, I recently found a ton of articles that suggest an NBA player peaks at 23 years old.  I shared them with this forum and got blasted, because conventional thinking is that they peak at 27.  But it's fair to mention that most stars you know of (Kobe, LeBron, Duncan, KG, etc) were pretty much who they were statistically by age 23.  Yes, they still improve on individual things here and there... LeBron's always becoming more efficient.  But more or less the stats remain the same.  Our thinking seems to be wrong.  The "27" thing isn't accurate.  You'll more or less know what you got by the time a player is 23.  Even our own Rajon Rondo was basically at his peak at 23.  (13 points, 10 assists, 4 rebounds, 2 steals).  The folks who think Rondo is going to make a leap post-injury at 28 don't know what they are talking about. 

Jeff Green is another wonderful example.  Green's stats as a 22 year old in OKC:  16.5 points, 6.7 rebounds, 2 assists, 1 steal .446/.389/.788

Green's stats now:  16.3 points, 4.5 rebounds, 1.6 assists, .4 steals  .448/.385/.781 ... 3 less minutes per game explain the slightly less stats.  He's almost identical to the player he was as a 22 year old... he's arguably improved his 3 point shooting, I guess.  Well... he takes more of them.  I'm sure he's "smarter".  But he is what he has been for years.

Good news is that Sully is only 21.  He's got a couple years until he peaks.

You are misinterpreting the concept of "peaking."  While it may be true that a majority of players more or less are what they are at the age of 23, it is also true that good players can often stay (and on occasion continue to improve--sometimes marginally, and in a few cases significantly) at that level until their mid thirties.  That is the point that you seem to be missing. 

You seem to be under the impression that after the age of 23, it is all a downward path for an NBA player.  That is completely untrue. 

[billysan]

You are misinterpreting the concept of "peaking."  While it may be true that a majority of players more or less are what they are at the age of 23, it is also true that good players can often stay (and on occasion continue to improve--sometimes marginally, and in a few cases significantly) at that level until their mid thirties.  That is the point that you seem to be missing. 

You seem to be under the impression that after the age of 23, it is all a downward path for an NBA player.  That is completely untrue. 

I took it to mean he has already reached his peak potential. This is 'who he is' statistically and he will not make a significant change in the future unless it is downward.  Always exceptions to the rule I guess.

He is a 3rd option at best in the starting 5 and a 2nd option in the second unit. Not bad and nothing to be ashamed of, I think he is a valuable wing player with starter potential on over half the teams in the league. I am not disappointed in him this year because I had no big expectations and dont consider him super star material.

I am satisfied with his overall production and defense although he could improve his rebounding. I guess it will never get much better because it has remained fairly constant.

[LarBrd33]

 Our thinking seems to be wrong.  The "27" thing isn't accurate.  You'll more or less know what you got by the time a player is 23.  Even our own Rajon Rondo was basically at his peak at 23.  (13 points, 10 assists, 4 rebounds, 2 steals).  The folks who think Rondo is going to make a leap post-injury at 28 don't know what they are talking about. 

I don't know who is saying Rondo is going to make a huge leap when he returns?

Those of you who think he is going to start making a free fall into mediocrity at the age of 28 will most likely be proven wrong, though.

He's not going to free fall into mediocrity.  He'll still be a top 20 PG.

[LarBrd33]

You are misinterpreting the concept of "peaking."  While it may be true that a majority of players more or less are what they are at the age of 23, it is also true that good players can often stay (and on occasion continue to improve--sometimes marginally, and in a few cases significantly) at that level until their mid thirties.  That is the point that you seem to be missing. 

You seem to be under the impression that after the age of 23, it is all a downward path for an NBA player.  That is completely untrue. 

I took it to mean he has already reached his peak potential. This is 'who he is' statistically and he will not make a significant change in the future unless it is downward.  Always exceptions to the rule I guess.

He is a 3rd option at best in the starting 5 and a 2nd option in the second unit. Not bad and nothing to be ashamed of, I think he is a valuable wing player with starter potential on over half the teams in the league. I am not disappointed in him this year because I had no big expectations and dont consider him super star material.

I am satisfied with his overall production and defense although he could improve his rebounding. I guess it will never get much better because it has remained fairly constant.

http://wagesofwins.com/nba-players-age-like-milk/

I'm merely point out that studies seem to show that players basically reach who they are by age 23.  Very little change from 23-24.  After 25, they seem to regress slightly. 

Not my study. 

[Jailan34]

He's not going to free fall into mediocrity.  He'll still be a top 20 PG.

Isn't "top 20" out of thirty the definition of mediocrity?

Right in the middle.

Either way I have Rondo 10th on my list.

[LarBrd33]

He's not going to free fall into mediocrity.  He'll still be a top 20 PG.

Isn't "top 20" out of thirty the definition of mediocrity?

Right in the middle.

Either way I have Rondo 10th on my list.

Fwiw, if Rondo came back 100% the same and put up 100% the same stats as he did early last season... he'd be the 3rd best statistical PG this year... barely.  There's about 18 other PG's who are putting up EFF between 16-20.  Anyways... different topic for a different thread.  Point is, players don't take a "leap" late in their career.  Common sense says they will continue to improve as they get older (as long as their body doesn't break down).  But stats show that if they are going to make a "leap"... it will happen before they turn 24.  After that you'll only see marginal improvement.  In actuality, studies show they start getting worse after 25.  LeBron saw a massive leap between the age of 19 and 20.  Since then, he's certainly improved his FG%, but this is still a player who averaged 27, 7, 7 on solid FG% as a 20 year old.

Chris Paul saw a dramatic improvement from age 20 to 22.  At 22 he averaged 21 points, 12 assists, 3 steals on 48%/37%/85%.   Since then, he may have seen marginal improvement in certain areas... become a better leader... but he's still relatively the same player (if not significantly worse).   Rondo saw a massive leap from age 20-23.  Since then, he's remained relatively the same 13, 10 and 4 guy.   We might see marginal improvement in his shooting, but he's basically become who he is.   Jeff Green has been who he's been since he was 22 years old.  That's the point.  Anyone who expected him to start averaging 20+ was off-base.  The leaps happen for players in their early 20s.  Reason to be optimistic about Sully.   

[cltc5]

worse.  Really thought he'd look to be the go to go.

[BballTim]

He's been more or less the same player as the one I've been watching since his rookie year.  His fluctuation in stats are only due to fluctuations in minutes and role.  He is what he always has been.  Not surprised at all. 

The folks who thought he'd made some leap into super-stardom didn't know what they were talking about.  He's 27 years old.  He already reached his peak.

You know, I recently found a ton of articles that suggest an NBA player peaks at 23 years old.  I shared them with this forum and got blasted, because conventional thinking is that they peak at 27.  But it's fair to mention that most stars you know of (Kobe, LeBron, Duncan, KG, etc) were pretty much who they were statistically by age 23.  Yes, they still improve on individual things here and there... LeBron's always becoming more efficient.  But more or less the stats remain the same.  Our thinking seems to be wrong.  The "27" thing isn't accurate.  You'll more or less know what you got by the time a player is 23.

   It's true that you generally have a good idea of what kind of a player you have when they're 23-24. It's not true IMO that they peak at their age. I think whether you agree with that depends on how much you depend on stats in your player evaluation. LeBron's best statistical years in the playoffs were, as you say, when he was 23-25 or so. His best years as a player have been the most recent ones.

[Neurotic Guy]

He's an average player. He is what he is at this point. If Ainge can find another home for him, I wouldn't be the least bit disappointed to see him gone.

I think Jeff is doing slightly better than I expected.  Prior to the last 3 games, Jeff put out a pretty consistent scoring stretch which I think is really the issue as to whether he exceeds or meets expectations. 

Either way, I don't consider him average unless a solid defender who can score anywhere on the court and average 16 a game is average for a small forward. It's not star quality, but it's above average -- about what a guy making 8M in this league should be doing.  With another star in the fold, Jeff Green is a valuable player as the 3rd/4th option.  But as you say, if DA can hit a home run with Green as bait, I'm all for it.

[Yoki_IsTheName]

I expected more, well, a bit more.

I expected Green to be what he is, the 2nd or 3rd best player in the team (counting Rondo of course). But I really thought he can be a 20ppg scorer, in which he shows he can but just not everytime. The shooting percentages is about right where I thought he would be, but I expected him taking about 15 shots per game, 3 short of what he's taking right now.

He's so darn inconsistent.

[Vox_Populi]

I didn't expect Green to become a super star, I expected him to be able to average 20 a game.

[ManUp]

He's been more or less the same player as the one I've been watching since his rookie year.  His fluctuation in stats are only due to fluctuations in minutes and role.  He is what he always has been.  Not surprised at all. 

The folks who thought he'd made some leap into super-stardom didn't know what they were talking about.  He's 27 years old.  He already reached his peak.

You know, I recently found a ton of articles that suggest an NBA player peaks at 23 years old.  I shared them with this forum and got blasted, because conventional thinking is that they peak at 27.  But it's fair to mention that most stars you know of (Kobe, LeBron, Duncan, KG, etc) were pretty much who they were statistically by age 23.  Yes, they still improve on individual things here and there... LeBron's always becoming more efficient.  But more or less the stats remain the same.  Our thinking seems to be wrong.  The "27" thing isn't accurate.  You'll more or less know what you got by the time a player is 23.  Even our own Rajon Rondo was basically at his peak at 23.  (13 points, 10 assists, 4 rebounds, 2 steals).  The folks who think Rondo is going to make a leap post-injury at 28 don't know what they are talking about. 

Jeff Green is another wonderful example.  Green's stats as a 22 year old in OKC:  16.5 points, 6.7 rebounds, 2 assists, 1 steal .446/.389/.788

Green's stats now:  16.3 points, 4.5 rebounds, 1.6 assists, .4 steals  .448/.385/.781 ... 3 less minutes per game explain the slightly less stats.  He's almost identical to the player he was as a 22 year old... he's arguably improved his 3 point shooting, I guess.  Well... he takes more of them.  I'm sure he's "smarter".  But he is what he has been for years.

Good news is that Sully is only 21.  He's got a couple years until he peaks.

IMO, at 23 you learn what you have, but that's not peaking. NBA players still improve even if just slightly. I think player's peak at 27 and plateau for a bit then it's down hill after there. Pierce, Garnett, and Allen all seemed to hit the decline point at 32.

Back to the point, I think we can all agree. It's probably more than safe to say that Jeff Green isn't going to learn many new tricks at this point in his career. He is what he is and expecting a dramatic epiphany at this point is foolish. What is he a slightly above average scorer, an average rebounder, a below average passer and mediocre everywhere else. I don't know about you guys, but that doesn't scream 3rd option on a champion ship team to me.

[Celtics4ever]

It's about what I expected.   He is and still is an up and down kind of guy.

[crimson_stallion]

I didn't expect Green to become a super star, I expected him to be able to average 20 a game.

This, and I still think he can be an 18-20 PPG guy. 

The thing with Green that makes him such a question mark is that everything is mental.  Green is shooting reasonably efficiently from the field and a nice percentage from three.  If he played with more aggression offensively and took 3-4 more attempts per game, then he would be right up there aroud the 20 PPG range. 

He is absolutely CAPABLE of putting up those type of numbers, he just lacks the aggressional mentally. It still feels like he's not used to being the #1 guy, he still feels like he's playing behind Durant/ Pierce and he needs to let his shots come to him rather than going out and getting them.

That said, we still don't know how his game will be affected once Rondo returns.  Will Rondo hold on to the ball too much, in turn hurting Green's touches?  Will Rondo's elite ability as a set-up man give Green more (and better) scoring opportunities?

We'll find out soon enough!

Anyway I still think defense is where Green is most underrated.  Statistically the last time I checked he was one of the best defensive small forwards in the NBA.  Everybody talks about his offense because everybody things of him as a scorer, but his defense (especially against elite opposing swingment) is arguably the most valuable thing he brings.  He has the defensive skill set to shut guys like Lebron, Durant and Carmello down - something he has proven in the past, and something that very few players in this league can do.  Add that to a relatively efficient ~17 PPG and he's quite a valuable player.   

[GreenWarrior]

green is exactly where I expected him to be.

also not to hijack this thread but I got to respond to the rondo being a top 20 pg, mediocre pg talk.

why do the fans of this city underrate their own players sooo much?

yeah, I don't expect rondo to be a top 2 PG upon his initial return or hell even the rest of the season. I do however expect him to be playing at a top 5 - 10 level PG by the end of it though.