Some thoughts about the chances of the Celtics making a mid-season trade

[droopdog7]

As far as Humphrey, if for nothing else, buying him out means saving money.  If he would be willing to take 80 cents on the dollar, that's over 2 million dollars.  Because who think that isn't meaningful are kidding themselves.

All in all, it's going to be difficult to trade him because we'd need to get back a good player (not happening) or or enough expiring bad players to match his salary (because no way we bring back longer contracts).  That will be difficult.

[LarBrd33]

Boston is better than I thought they'd be.  I was wrong.  I didn't think we'd be finishing this month with 8 wins.  I also didn't expect the Eastern conference to be this disgustingly dreadful.  If things keep going like this, we might win the Atlantic.  I also saw a clip of Rondo earlier and he looks closer to returning than I imagined.   Landing a Top 5 pick this year probably isn't going to happen.   

I always assumed we'd make a trade to make us worse short-term.  At this point, I wouldn't be shocked to see us give up our 2014 pick in a trade to make us competitive sooner rather than later.  I don't know.  This season is nuts.  We're a below average team with mediocre talent, but this year you can finish below .500 and still end up with the 4th seed.  It's crazy. 

I mean, we'd still get killed by Indiana and Miami, but beyond those two teams the Eastern Conference is HORRIBLE right now.  The 13th best team in the West would be the 4th seed in the East. 

If the playoffs started today, we'd get swept by Indiana in the 1st round.  We'd get stuck with the #15 pick and #19 picks.   Pretty rough situation to be in.  You know... maybe something insane happens where we like... trade Jeff Green, Humph's expiring contract and all our 1st rounders for Carmelo Anthony.  Who knows.

[BleedGreen1989]

Boston is better than I thought they'd be.  I was wrong.  I didn't think we'd be finishing this month with 8 wins.  I also didn't expect the Eastern conference to be this disgustingly dreadful.  If things keep going like this, we might win the Atlantic.  I also saw a clip of Rondo earlier and he looks closer to returning than I imagined.   Landing a Top 5 pick this year probably isn't going to happen.   

I always assumed we'd make a trade to make us worse short-term.  At this point, I wouldn't be shocked to see us give up our 2014 pick in a trade to make us competitive sooner rather than later.  I don't know.  This season is nuts.  We're a below average team with mediocre talent, but this year you can finish below .500 and still end up with the 4th seed.  It's crazy. 

I mean, we'd still get killed by Indiana and Miami, but beyond those two teams the Eastern Conference is HORRIBLE right now.  The 13th best team in the West would be the 4th seed in the East. 

If the playoffs started today, we'd get swept by Indiana in the 1st round.  We'd get stuck with the #15 pick and #19 picks.   Pretty rough situation to be in.  You know... maybe something insane happens where we like... trade Jeff Green, Humph's expiring contract and all our 1st rounders for Carmelo Anthony.  Who knows.

Yeah, I'd hate to be Danny right now. He really is at a cross road and will be making a tough decision in Feb. If things keep going this way (who knows?) then the Celtics will likely make the playoffs and end up in the situation you described. Can't imagine that's what he wants.

Very surprising and unpredictable season indeed.

[LooseCannon]

I always assumed we'd make a trade to make us worse short-term.

I always assumed that any trade that makes the Celtics worse short-term would be intended to make the team better in the long term, independently of where the Celtics end up drafting in 2014.  That is, I never expected Ainge to just give away value in order to tank, but would try to "win" every trade on its own merits.

[LooseCannon]

Yeah, I'd hate to be Danny right now. He really is at a cross road and will be making a tough decision in Feb. If things keep going this way (who knows?) then the Celtics will likely make the playoffs and end up in the situation you described. Can't imagine that's what he wants.

Very surprising and unpredictable season indeed.

I don't think his decision making is that difficult.  First, he has to keep under the luxury tax unless he has a chance to acquire the sort of player who will turn the team into a contender.  Second, he has to hold on to those first-round draft picks unless he has a shot at acquiring an above-average starter.

If he could turn the pupu platter-level players like Bass, Humphries, and Lee into someone like Omer Asik without giving up any firsts or good young players, then he would probably jump on that because that is outstanding value.  If, instead, teams are willing to give up an expiring, a draft bust who might benefit from a change in scenery, and a second for someone like Bass, I think Ainge will lean towards being a seller rather than a buyer.

He's open to different strategies, but I think he has a pretty clear idea of how he weighs the value of different options.

[LarBrd33]

I always assumed we'd make a trade to make us worse short-term.

I always assumed that any trade that makes the Celtics worse short-term would be intended to make the team better in the long term, independently of where the Celtics end up drafting in 2014.  That is, I never expected Ainge to just give away value in order to tank.

Of course not.  This team isn't very good right now.  They stand zero chance of winning a championship.  But you don't just give away assets.  The idea was that you'd give up vets like Rondo, Bass, etc for future assets.   We didn't trade Pierce and KG simply to tank this season... we got back future assets.  You get worse in the short-term and better long-term.

But this year, thanks to a dreadful Eastern Conference where half the teams have losing streaks and only 3 teams are above .500...  The prospect of bottoming out this year seems exceptionally difficult.   We might be better off just giving up our future assets and going for broke.

Going for Broke would mean like... trading JEff Green, Bass, Lee, Wallace, Humphries, our 2014 pick, Atlanta's 2014 pick and probably a couple other 1st rounders for Carmelo Anthony and Amare Stoudamire's corpse. 

Then maybe you trade Olynyk, The Paul Pierce trade exception and a couple more 1st rounders for Omar Asik.

And try your chances with with a team of

PG - Rondo
SG - Bradley
SF - Melo
PF - Sully
C - Asik
---
PG/SG Crawford
C - Fav
DNP - Amare's corpse


IT'S CRAZY!!! ...   You could float Amare's 20 million expiring contract at the deadline next season.   All the big contracts (Rondo, Melo, Amare, Asik) expire after the 2014-15 season.   They'd all be free agents.  You could pick who you want try and re-sign ... or you could lose them all and start over... or you could use your cap space to try and sign someone else like Kevin Love (currently projected to be a free agent summer 2015). 

Actually, since we're living in crazy town anyways... let's say we do the Melo/Amare and Asik trades.  Let's say in the middle of the 2014-15 season the Timberwolves are floundering.  Let's say Martin, Budinger or Brewer has fallen off the cliff thanks to injuries and is now seen as a bad contract.  Let's say that Kevin Love has made it known he will sign elsewhere during the summer.   We offer Amare's expiring + Sullinger + the rest of our 1st rounders for Kevin Love and a bad contract of their chosing.   In a little over a year we'd have a big 3 of Rondo, Melo and Love.  Asik and Bradley round out the rest of our starting lineup.  Lol.  /pipedream

My point is... if Boston keeps playing themselves out of the 7 player lotto superstar race, they might decide to just trade themselves out of it entirely and go for another small window.

[Smitty77]

I am amazed that anyone would consider or even voice trading for Carmello Anthony.  He is a cancer, period.  He is a HORRIFIC defender!!!  He is a gun.  And he is NOT a winner.  I want winners and team players in Boston, not egomaniacs!!

Just my thoughts.  (Obviously, I am NOT a Carmello fan:-)))

Smitty77

[LooseCannon]

I always assumed we'd make a trade to make us worse short-term.

I always assumed that any trade that makes the Celtics worse short-term would be intended to make the team better in the long term, independently of where the Celtics end up drafting in 2014.  That is, I never expected Ainge to just give away value in order to tank.

Of course not.  This team isn't very good right now.  They stand zero chance of winning a championship.  But you don't just give away assets.  The idea was that you'd give up vets like Rondo, Bass, etc for future assets.   We didn't trade Pierce and KG simply to tank this season... we got back future assets.  You get worse in the short-term and better long-term.

Well, one thing I wouldn't expect Ainge to do is simply give away Bass for an expiring contract of the same size this season.  Creating a couple million in space under the luxury tax by taking back a smaller contract if he needs room to maneuver is something he might do, but I think he would want something of value back, otherwise it would make sense to just keep Bass and see if you can get some value next season.

[LarBrd33]

I am amazed that anyone would consider or even voice trading for Carmello Anthony.  He is a cancer, period.  He is a HORRIFIC defender!!!  He is a gun.  And he is NOT a winner.  I want winners and team players in Boston, not egomaniacs!!

Just my thoughts.  (Obviously, I am NOT a Carmello fan:-)))

Smitty77

Yeah I mean... all those negative things are what makes it plausible he could get traded for pennies on the dollar (Jeff Green + Bass + Lee + two 2014 1st rounders).     ... Tryin to keep it real.

I'm not really supporting it.  I'd prefer bottoming out this season and building around a budding young superstar for the next 20 years.   But I'm saying that if things continue like this (tripping into the playoffs with a below .500 record), Ainge might consider trading in all our assets now.  Our first rounders are currently projected #15 and #19.  Unlikely you're going to get a franchise player with those picks.

[Celtics18]

Nothing needs to happen other than that this team needs to go out and try to win some basketball games and develop into better basketball players.  That's what's been happening.  And, for me it's been fun to watch. 

Personally, I would much prefer it if nothing other than that happened for the time being. 

[Celtics18]

I am amazed that anyone would consider or even voice trading for Carmello Anthony.  He is a cancer, period.  He is a HORRIFIC defender!!!  He is a gun.  And he is NOT a winner.  I want winners and team players in Boston, not egomaniacs!!

Just my thoughts.  (Obviously, I am NOT a Carmello fan:-)))

Smitty77

Yeah I mean... all those negative things are what makes it plausible he could get traded for pennies on the dollar (Jeff Green + Bass + Lee + two 2014 1st rounders).     ... Tryin to keep it real.

I'm not really supporting it.  I'd prefer bottoming out this season and building around a budding young superstar for the next 20 years.   But I'm saying that if things continue like this (tripping into the playoffs with a below .500 record), Ainge might consider trading in all our assets now.  Our first rounders are currently projected #15 and #19.  Unlikely you're going to get a franchise player with those picks.

Breathe

[LarBrd33]

Nothing needs to happen other than that this team needs to go out and try to win some basketball games and develop into better basketball players.  That's what's been happening.  And, for me it's been fun to watch. 

Personally, I would much prefer it if nothing other than that happened for the time being.

Even the best of our young players have ceilings that will prevent this team from going from "fun mediocre squad" to "legit threat".   

If we continue on this path to mediocrity... we might want to cash in our assets sooner rather than later. 

[dreamgreen]

The current situation could not have been predicted. I would assume Danny will keep all options open and take what he believes is the best one available.

As for Humphries I would not rule out a deal for someone like Bynum. We could offer him and Bogans, take another bad contract from them and get a pick out of it. Not saying we would get their first rounder this year, but add this, take that and you never know what will work.

Basically I'm saying we could take on other teams bad contracts and get picks, at the same time making us worse this year for a better chance at a good pick.

[LooseCannon]

I am amazed that anyone would consider or even voice trading for Carmello Anthony.  He is a cancer, period.  He is a HORRIFIC defender!!!  He is a gun.  And he is NOT a winner.  I want winners and team players in Boston, not egomaniacs!!

Just my thoughts.  (Obviously, I am NOT a Carmello fan:-)))

Smitty77

Yeah I mean... all those negative things are what makes it plausible he could get traded for pennies on the dollar (Jeff Green + Bass + Lee + two 2014 1st rounders).     ... Tryin to keep it real.

I'm not really supporting it.  I'd prefer bottoming out this season and building around a budding young superstar for the next 20 years.   But I'm saying that if things continue like this (tripping into the playoffs with a below .500 record), Ainge might consider trading in all our assets now.  Our first rounders are currently projected #15 and #19.  Unlikely you're going to get a franchise player with those picks.

Knowing Ainge, he could secretly be in love with a player he expects to be drafted somewhere in the mid-teens and would be exploring options to move down if he ended up with #10 pick.

[LarBrd33]

I am amazed that anyone would consider or even voice trading for Carmello Anthony.  He is a cancer, period.  He is a HORRIFIC defender!!!  He is a gun.  And he is NOT a winner.  I want winners and team players in Boston, not egomaniacs!!

Just my thoughts.  (Obviously, I am NOT a Carmello fan:-)))

Smitty77

Yeah I mean... all those negative things are what makes it plausible he could get traded for pennies on the dollar (Jeff Green + Bass + Lee + two 2014 1st rounders).     ... Tryin to keep it real.

I'm not really supporting it.  I'd prefer bottoming out this season and building around a budding young superstar for the next 20 years.   But I'm saying that if things continue like this (tripping into the playoffs with a below .500 record), Ainge might consider trading in all our assets now.  Our first rounders are currently projected #15 and #19.  Unlikely you're going to get a franchise player with those picks.

Breathe

Jeff Green + Bradley + Sully + our 2014 (#15), Atlanta's 2014 (#19), Olynyk, Fav ... for David Lee. 

Rondo's a supahstah.  Alls he needs another all-stah next to him.