So let's take a look at the Celtics 15 games in and 5 wins/10 losses

[chambers]

Ok, so we are 15 games in. We are starting to get a feel for this Celtics team and our particular strengths/weaknesses.
But I thought we should look at some stats, numbers and facts for fun.

* We are currently in 10th position in the Eastern conference with a 33% win percentage. We are tied with Orlando, Detroit and Sacramento.
This current standing puts us as a bottom 8 team- with New York and Brooklyn both below us. One would assume that they'll eventually get past us, whilst teams like Washington, Toronto, Charlotte, Phoenix and Philadelphia will likely start to come back down to reality once the NBA schedule kicks in. Other teams who have started extra poorly who should presumably improve include the Cavaliers and the Bucks. That's speculation though and again, it's only 15 games in.

It's really hard to say how bad (or good) we are exactly, and with only 15 games in the sample sizes are very small.
But let's have a look at a few interesting stats.

*In points scored we are 27th in the NBA with 92.7 points per game on offense.
*We are 25th in the NBA on 3 point percentage with 31.9% and we are also 25th in attempts per game with 16.7 attempts. I think we'll slowly trend downward in 3 point land.
We currently have Green, Crawford, Lee and Wallace at over 40% (Wallace is at 47%)- Pretty much all these guys must maintain over 40% for us to even stay out of the bottom 5 teams- which I don't think will happen.
* We are 24th in the league at rebounding with 41 rebounds per game. Defensive rebounds are actually *not so bad* at number 21 out of the 30 NBA teams and we are grabbing 70% of total defensive rebounds. Offensively we are struggling but doing alright considering our lack of true interior size- Although I personally feel this stat will steadily decline as we face each NBA team and their superior NBA big men.
* At 17 turnovers a game we are 23rd in the NBA.
*We are BOTTOM OF THE LEAGUE in assists, and Rondo's absence is SORELY missed on offense with only 17 assists per game.
Again, I don't know how much Rondo will help - but some stats below which may surprise you suggest he could help far more than sceptics like myself thought...he will create more opportunities around the rim which will help A LOT- he himself will also be able to finish plays in transition far better than our current staff.

Our current total offensive rating is 26th in the NBA and our defensive rating is 16th.

So after 15 games and 5 wins, if we keep this trend up we are looking at a 25-28 win team.
Rondo's return will help our squad immensely, but without the offensive talent around him- as well as his own problems on offense- he'll have to be far more aggressive around the basket to have any major impact on the offensive end.

As far as shooting goes, we are below average around the rim (less than 5 feet)at 55%. Compare this to the elite teams who hover around the 62 to 65% mark. We just don't have too many skilled bigs other than Sully- and he's still learning. Opposing big men have an easier time disrupting our shots directly around the rim because of our lack of size/skill combinations. Brooklyn, Indiana, Chicago, Portland and OKC are all behind us currently which means we might be due for a gut check when we start playing teams like them.

Here's where the sweet surprises come from- our paint-15 feet shooting is actually good.
From 5-9 feet we are doing VERY well. We are 4th in the league percentage wise at 42% and are top 8 in attempts at shots in this range. I was surprised by this and it shows how well guys like Bass, Crawford, Green, Sully and Wallace are going coming off picks, taking short jump shots and taking advantage of match ups against weaker line ups. The trend continues out to 14 feet where are currently THE BEST percentage jumpshooting team from 10-14 feet in the NBA.
All I can say is Bass+Sully = good from this range? I'm astounded after 15 games.

I do expect the 5-9 feet to decline as we face bigger teams with superior middle/paint/rim protection but that's just my speculation. The 10-14 feet shot totals should rise but I can't see why we can't stay in the top 10 teams from this range- considering how we are doing now.
With Rondo's return and his beautiful pull up stroke coming back this should be something to look forward too.

From 15-19 feet we start coming back to the real world and just squeeze into the bottom half of the league- but we are still in the middle of the ratings so it could be far worse.

Our 3 point shooting speaks for itself (poor) at 31.9 % and what worries me is that we are currently on a hot streak with multiple players shooting far better than their career stats say they should.
We seem to be scoring our fast break opportunities and getting to the line reasonably well for a team without any elite NBA big men or penetrating guards.(until Rondo returns).

The jump shot is a less efficient shot but we aren't taking too many- we are trying to score around the rim but are having problems finishing and subsequently rebounding our missed shots under 5 feet.

So what are everyone's thoughts?
Are you surprised how good our short to medium jump shooting has been in the first 15 games?


The majority of our offense is being made up of short range shots and we are doing well with those shots. However we need more shots around the rim.
There's a reason that the Knicks always played better when the offense focused on Amare Stoudemire and not Carmelo.
Stoudemire's scoring was big, and his shots were around the rim, from 0-9 feet, meaning his true shooting percentage and efficiency were far higher.
As soon as they switched the focus to Melo, things went down hill.

We need more focus on interior scoring and rebounding- which is what we'll get better at as Sully and Olynyk play more.
I'm not sure if we can keep the jumpshooting up and it appears that those shots and our middle of the road perimeter defense are combining to keep us out of the bottom 4 teams in the NBA.

It's going to be a long season though and I do expect us to get knocked back to reality with our lack of depth and lack of career shooters once defenses around the league start sharpening up.

Go Celtics!

[clover]

Among the C's bigs, really only Bass, at around 55%, has been less than 60% at the rim. Sully, Fav and KO have been pretty similar (61, a hair under 60, and 61). Humphries has a small sample size but has been 7-8.

Bradley and Crawford are down in Bass territory, and Green and Wallace have been somewhere in between. Lee just over 50%, and Pressey and Brooks below.

Also, the trouble with mid-range jumpers is it's a losing shot. 42% is a bad percentage unless it's for 3 points.

[Celtics4ever]

We seem to get up for the better teams and play poorly against the bad ones.

[playdream]

We seem to get up for the better teams and play poorly against the bad ones.

yeah that's the plan

[beklog]

We seem to get up for the better teams and play poorly against the bad ones.

I think we'd been like that since the Big 3 era..
Beat Miami/Lakers then lose to Bobcats/Wizards 

[dreamgreen]

They have had one bad loss against Houston and one huge win over Miami, overall IMO they have played well.

My worry is that the schedule will get a little easier after November and then at some point Rondo will come back and we will start to win a few more games than we want to.

Ainge needs to dump Bass for a total bum and a pick ASAP. bring in some younger developing talent for our veterans so we stay in the bottom 5.

[BudweiserCeltic]

We seem to get up for the better teams and play poorly against the bad ones.

Don't know how you're drawing up this conclusion based on how we played this year.

[lightspeed5]

id prefer we keep losing for the draft, but only win against miami

[Celtics4ever]

Don't know how you're drawing up this conclusion based on how we played this year.

I watch the games, try it.  Several others in the thread above think it seems that way too.   

[SHAQATTACK]

Never ......ever .....never ..  Want to tank to LA....lose to,the Lakers. Is not desirable under any conditions .........would be so cool to beat them.....

After that ........we need to suck ......but put on a good show for the fans

[billysan]

So this record also projects to a 22-25 win max season if we continue without Rondo in the lineup. With Rondo healthy we climb to about 30 wins I would guess. We also should factor in the likelihood of another injury or two with the top 8 rotation players so the number of wins could stay around the mid twenties.

My point is that at our current pace with minor variables factored in we are in the range of a top 5 draft pick at best. This without tanking or any catastophic injury situation.

I would like to see the rebounding numbers improve into the top 10 by the end of the season and I would love to see our turnover rate sink to around 10-12 at most per game. I feel these are reasonable goals and even if our shooting is poor we will be improved significantly.

[hwangjini_1]

thanks for the thread and stats. as i read the numbers on jump shooting they confirmed what my eyes tell me from watching - the celtics are getting away with mid-range jumpers as the heart of their offense.

but, as noted above, this is the least efficient way to score in the nba. so that may also explain the celtics' success- other teams are willing to give those but contest 3 pts and close in shots.

the bad news is that if teams contest mid range shots, the celtics are in trouble.

the numbers also confirm that the early predictions about the celtics were on target. no real inside presence on defense or offense, poor 3 point shooting, 25 to 30 wins.

but stevens has taken this team and done a credible job on defense i think. the larger problems are people missing assignments, not the defensive scheme. also, the celtics are letting in far too many inside shots. simply, there is no rim protector to prevent this.

i am most happy with the effort and slight improvements i see in the team each game. stevens is doing well on those counts.

i am fine with rondo waiting to heal before returning since he wont "save" the season when he returns. my original prediction was 25 to 30 games. that may still be on target.

[BudweiserCeltic]

Don't know how you're drawing up this conclusion based on how we played this year.

I watch the games, try it.  Several others in the thread above think it seems that way too.

Other than we have played pretty much equally good/bad regardless of the opponent... or are we also going to ignore how poorly we played against the likes of Minnesota and Houston?

Or how well we have played against the Magic and Utah.

And how do you classify a team like Charlotte? They're not the walkovers of past years either, and we played a poor game against them.

There's really nothing of what has occurred this season of this team playing to the level of the competition, it's been mostly about us and match-ups irrespective of the type of opponent.

[Who]

It feels to me like their record should be better than 5 wins and 10 losses.

Maybe it's because those first 4 losses seem so long ago. Well first 3 losses. The Memphis game was a good performance. Those first three games were bad performances and ugly to watch. Outside of the Houston game, they have played much better since then and have looked a better squad than a 5 win 10 loss caliber team.

[SHAQATTACK]

It feels to me like their record should be better than 5 wins and 10 losses.

Maybe it's because those first 4 losses seem so long ago. Well first 3 losses. The Memphis game was a good performance. Those first three games were bad performances and ugly to watch. Outside of the Houston game, they have played much better since then and have looked a better squad than a 5 win 10 loss caliber team.

I agree,  think we are , if Rondo plays and turnover cut down ......I think we should be three wins to the better....

Believe they are actually playing better than I  figured, and close and trying hard and all .... Really helps me as a fan.