So let's take a look at the Celtics 15 games in and 5 wins/10 losses

[the_Bird]

Overall, the team's about where I expected it would be.  They've been streakier than I'd have expected, but if they're projecting now to be 25-30 wins for the season...  that's where I would have put my money a month ago, anyway.

The challenge will be; we ARE really missing Rondo.  But, by the time he returns to action, I'd be surprised if Danny hasn't made a trade or two to offload a couple of the veterans.  Trading a guy like Bass to give more opportunities to Sully/KO is probably the right thing to do, but it probably hurts us a little this year.  If he can get someone to take Crash's contract, he should - but Crash has still been one of our better players this year.  If Courtney Lee is jettisoned and his minutes go to Crawford/Brooks, that's probably not a good thing for this season.

So, the return of Rondo will help - but I expect we're going to see a net-outflow of veteran players within the next couple of months.  And, even if all of those moves are 100% correct, it's almost certain that we're going to be playing a younger squad with less depth by the time we get to March/April.  I wouldn't expect us to go on a run just because Rondo'a back.

[lefty12]

don't need stats to conclude - offense is struggling

no legit pg = no easy shots
no go-to guy = tough shots late in clock

no leadership = several 4thQ leads have slipped away

W-L record could easily be 8-7 w/ a legit vet PG

if rondo healthy 10-5 not too much of a stretch

[TwinTower14]

Disagree with you 10/5 with Rondo.  You forget how that Rondo coasts a lot and the C's were under .500 with him last year right?  I like Rondo as a player but he is not going to make a big difference on this team.  Lottery bound, with or without...

[the_Bird]

Rondo's a smart guy who (I think) is looking forward to being the true alpha-dog on this team.  I know he's tended to coast in the past, but I'm intrigued to see how he performs now that it's 100% his team.

[TwinTower14]

I get your point but PP, KG and Doc made it a point to have it as Rondo's team last year ( with much better talent than this one ) and Rondo coasted a lot and the team played sub .500.  I don't want to bash him because he is a good player but he won't make a difference on this squad. 

[gar]

500 team at best. Olynyk is showing the reasons why he was selected when he was. As did Sullinger with he back surgery. The question is whether they can over come their weaknesses. Olynyk is slow and lack lateral quickness and explosiveness. Sullinger has a unique build; but not one that will allow him to age gracefully as an athlete. In other words all the extra weight is bound to take a toll.

[saltlover]

I get your point but PP, KG and Doc made it a point to have it as Rondo's team last year ( with much better talent than this one ) and Rondo coasted a lot and the team played sub .500.  I don't want to bash him because he is a good player but he won't make a difference on this squad.

Did Rondo coast?  Or was last year's team just not very good, with or without Rondo?  The Nets make me think it's the latter.

[Celtics18]

Ok, so we are 15 games in. We are starting to get a feel for this Celtics team and our particular strengths/weaknesses.
But I thought we should look at some stats, numbers and facts for fun.

* We are currently in 10th position in the Eastern conference with a 33% win percentage. We are tied with Orlando, Detroit and Sacramento.
This current standing puts us as a bottom 8 team- with New York and Brooklyn both below us. One would assume that they'll eventually get past us, whilst teams like Washington, Toronto, Charlotte, Phoenix and Philadelphia will likely start to come back down to reality once the NBA schedule kicks in. Other teams who have started extra poorly who should presumably improve include the Cavaliers and the Bucks. That's speculation though and again, it's only 15 games in.

It's really hard to say how bad (or good) we are exactly, and with only 15 games in the sample sizes are very small.
But let's have a look at a few interesting stats.

*In points scored we are 27th in the NBA with 92.7 points per game on offense.
*We are 25th in the NBA on 3 point percentage with 31.9% and we are also 25th in attempts per game with 16.7 attempts. I think we'll slowly trend downward in 3 point land.
We currently have Green, Crawford, Lee and Wallace at over 40% (Wallace is at 47%)- Pretty much all these guys must maintain over 40% for us to even stay out of the bottom 5 teams- which I don't think will happen.
* We are 24th in the league at rebounding with 41 rebounds per game. Defensive rebounds are actually *not so bad* at number 21 out of the 30 NBA teams and we are grabbing 70% of total defensive rebounds. Offensively we are struggling but doing alright considering our lack of true interior size- Although I personally feel this stat will steadily decline as we face each NBA team and their superior NBA big men.
* At 17 turnovers a game we are 23rd in the NBA.
*We are BOTTOM OF THE LEAGUE in assists, and Rondo's absence is SORELY missed on offense with only 17 assists per game.
Again, I don't know how much Rondo will help - but some stats below which may surprise you suggest he could help far more than sceptics like myself thought...he will create more opportunities around the rim which will help A LOT- he himself will also be able to finish plays in transition far better than our current staff.

Our current total offensive rating is 26th in the NBA and our defensive rating is 16th.

So after 15 games and 5 wins, if we keep this trend up we are looking at a 25-28 win team.
Rondo's return will help our squad immensely, but without the offensive talent around him- as well as his own problems on offense- he'll have to be far more aggressive around the basket to have any major impact on the offensive end.

As far as shooting goes, we are below average around the rim (less than 5 feet)at 55%. Compare this to the elite teams who hover around the 62 to 65% mark. We just don't have too many skilled bigs other than Sully- and he's still learning. Opposing big men have an easier time disrupting our shots directly around the rim because of our lack of size/skill combinations. Brooklyn, Indiana, Chicago, Portland and OKC are all behind us currently which means we might be due for a gut check when we start playing teams like them.

Here's where the sweet surprises come from- our paint-15 feet shooting is actually good.
From 5-9 feet we are doing VERY well. We are 4th in the league percentage wise at 42% and are top 8 in attempts at shots in this range. I was surprised by this and it shows how well guys like Bass, Crawford, Green, Sully and Wallace are going coming off picks, taking short jump shots and taking advantage of match ups against weaker line ups. The trend continues out to 14 feet where are currently THE BEST percentage jumpshooting team from 10-14 feet in the NBA.
All I can say is Bass+Sully = good from this range? I'm astounded after 15 games.

I do expect the 5-9 feet to decline as we face bigger teams with superior middle/paint/rim protection but that's just my speculation. The 10-14 feet shot totals should rise but I can't see why we can't stay in the top 10 teams from this range- considering how we are doing now.
With Rondo's return and his beautiful pull up stroke coming back this should be something to look forward too.

From 15-19 feet we start coming back to the real world and just squeeze into the bottom half of the league- but we are still in the middle of the ratings so it could be far worse.

Our 3 point shooting speaks for itself (poor) at 31.9 % and what worries me is that we are currently on a hot streak with multiple players shooting far better than their career stats say they should.
We seem to be scoring our fast break opportunities and getting to the line reasonably well for a team without any elite NBA big men or penetrating guards.(until Rondo returns).

The jump shot is a less efficient shot but we aren't taking too many- we are trying to score around the rim but are having problems finishing and subsequently rebounding our missed shots under 5 feet.

So what are everyone's thoughts?
Are you surprised how good our short to medium jump shooting has been in the first 15 games?


The majority of our offense is being made up of short range shots and we are doing well with those shots. However we need more shots around the rim.
There's a reason that the Knicks always played better when the offense focused on Amare Stoudemire and not Carmelo.
Stoudemire's scoring was big, and his shots were around the rim, from 0-9 feet, meaning his true shooting percentage and efficiency were far higher.
As soon as they switched the focus to Melo, things went down hill.

We need more focus on interior scoring and rebounding- which is what we'll get better at as Sully and Olynyk play more.
I'm not sure if we can keep the jumpshooting up and it appears that those shots and our middle of the road perimeter defense are combining to keep us out of the bottom 4 teams in the NBA.

It's going to be a long season though and I do expect us to get knocked back to reality with our lack of depth and lack of career shooters once defenses around the league start sharpening up.

Go Celtics!

To me, the stats that jump out at me the most are the high turnover rate and the low assist rate.  We are turning the ball over way to much, and it's not from trying too hard to make the big play, it's just from being a sloppy, poor ball handling team.

This is where I think Rondo will help the most.  We know that Rondo will have his share of turnovers as well.  But, we also know that for every turnover, he is likely to get three or more assists.  He will not only improve our dreadful A/TO ratio, but there is a good chance that the looks he produces for everybody on the team will be better looks.  I expect his return to produce a considerably higher amount of shots at the rim. 

So far, I am pleased with how the defense is holding up.  We have allowed some lop sided numbers in a couple of games against really good offensive teams, but for the most part, we have worked hard on that end, and at least competed defensively.

That is a good sign for when Rondo comes back and improves our offense. 

[TwinTower14]

I get your point but PP, KG and Doc made it a point to have it as Rondo's team last year ( with much better talent than this one ) and Rondo coasted a lot and the team played sub .500.  I don't want to bash him because he is a good player but he won't make a difference on this squad.

Did Rondo coast?  Or was last year's team just not very good, with or without Rondo?  The Nets make me think it's the latter.

Trust what your eyeballs tell you?  Rondo coasted on defense a lot last year IMO. 

[mmmmm]

My original prediction was that we would be 'out performing' to win 6 games by the end of November.  That was as part of a season prediction of around 36 wins.

We are at 5 right now and it's not unreasonable to think we could sneak in one or two more before November is out.  So pretty close to 'on schedule'.

'Still a long way to go, though, before we really can be sure where this team will end up.

[the_Bird]

I get your point but PP, KG and Doc made it a point to have it as Rondo's team last year ( with much better talent than this one ) and Rondo coasted a lot and the team played sub .500.  I don't want to bash him because he is a good player but he won't make a difference on this squad.

They could have said it as many times as they wanted, but it was never, ever going to be "Rondo's team" as long as Pierce was around. 

[Celtics18]

My original prediction was that we would be 'out performing' to win 6 games by the end of November.  That was as part of a season prediction of around 36 wins.

We are at 5 right now and it's not unreasonable to think we could sneak in one or two more before November is out.  So pretty close to 'on schedule'.

'Still a long way to go, though, before we really can be sure where this team will end up.

7 and 12 by the end of November looks do-able.  I would be very happy with that.  I'd love for them to start by getting the Bobcats back on Monday night. 

[LooseCannon]

I get your point but PP, KG and Doc made it a point to have it as Rondo's team last year ( with much better talent than this one ) and Rondo coasted a lot and the team played sub .500.  I don't want to bash him because he is a good player but he won't make a difference on this squad.

Did Rondo coast?  Or was last year's team just not very good, with or without Rondo?  The Nets make me think it's the latter.

Trust what your eyeballs tell you?  Rondo coasted on defense a lot last year IMO.

I think he will coast a lot less because he actually has possible backups and doesn't have to worry about conserving his energy so he can play 40 minutes per game.

[D.o.s.]

Looks like my 26 win prediction is being validated by the math types.

It's good to be a visionary.

[Celtics18]

Looks like my 26 win prediction is being validated by the math types.

It's good to be a visionary.

It's also early to be a visionary.