Gut feeling Rondo will be on a plane to Houston for Asik before the deadline

[BballTim]

Exactly. I see him as top 10 PG too, and there is nothing wrong with that. Eventually though, Tim is going to have to stop using what happened in mid-2010 as a reference point since we're only about 45 days away from 2014.

  Use his more recent play as a reference point. Led the league in assists the last 2 years, started the last all-star game, made 3rd team all-nba. I'm guessing you missed all and that?

Tim's mindset-

Rondo plays poorly = Rondo's hurt
Celtics play poorly and underachieve = It's his teammates fault
Rondo gets suspended = It's the refs fault
Rumors of Rondo being "difficult" = False reports trying to smear his reputation
Rumors of Rondo being shopped = False reports trying to devalue him

  Obviously I've never said anything remotely related to most of that. I get comments like this in some of these Rondo discussions, by people who either don't pay a lot of attention to what they read or base their claims on incorrect claims others make. Somehow it seems fitting.

[Chemistry]

TP for your first post and welcome to celticsblog.

I like your reasoning and feel your post is written in an objective light.

Thanks. I've been following the discussion on Rondo potentially coming to the Rockets and thought I'd take a look at from the Celtics fan's perspective and was genuinely surprised at how low Asik and Lin were rated on here.

Fans always expect and want to get more for their players than perhaps they are worth.

I think realistically Asik is going to go to the Bucks with Irsan going to the Rockets. I think the Rockets want to keep Lin for now. His production is great value for an $8 mill/year cap hit.

I'm interested to see if the Celtics do trade Rondo and what they get for him in return.

Though if Asik and Lin do end up getting traded here I can see myself watching the Celtics a lot more as I'm a fan of both. Also I'm Irish, so there's that affiliation to consider.

[BballTim]

Is there such a thing as a neutral NBA fan? I have to say I find the valuations of players by fans of different teams to be quite interesting.

The discussion of Asik + x for Rondo is happening on the Rocket's forum too, so I thought I'd give you guys some perspective of how Rockets' fans see it.

On Rondo:

There is some division. While a lot of fans would love to have Rondo, some are concerned that he is too much of a headcase and his ego would clash with Harden's and Dwight's. There are also concerns that Rondo is a poor jump shooter, and needs the ball in his hands, which is exactly what Harden needs also. On the plus side, there is the opinion that Rondo would do a great job of finding both Harden and Dwight and the rest of the role players in good spots, getting them lots of easy buckets. He would also make a huge difference to the Rocket's weak perimetre defense.

On Asik:

 Most Rockets' fans are quite upset with his agitating for a move as they feel it will lower his value. Asik seems to be underrated on here. Rockets' fans would rate him close to a top 10 ten starting centre in the league. His stats don't show what a great defensive presence he is. Some fans would argue that he was more important to the Rockets reaching the playoffs last season than Harden. For example one can look at K-mart's scoring this season (who the rockets traded for Harden), but it's very hard to find dependable defensive centres like Asik. Asik's main weakness is his poor hands catching the ball on offense, but that's something that would improve with coaching.

On Lin

I think this is a perfect example of people not knowing about players on other teams. Lin had a poor start to last season, though according to Morey and Mchale this was down to him still not being 100% back from injury while having to learn a new role, playing off the ball, after Houston got Harden.

Lin's post ASB numbers are actually quite decent:

15 points 6 assists 2 rebounds 1 steal over 27 games.

Shooting 47% and 38% on threes.

They would look even better if you left out the playoffs. In the playoffs, the entire Rockets' team had a terrible game 1. In game 2 Lin was injured. He remained injured throughout. You could see that even when he played in later games, he was unable to lift his right arm without considerable discomfort.

He has worked on his game a lot in the off season and that shows in his current start.

This season after 11 games he is averaging:

18 points, 5 assists, on 52% shooting and 44% from three. This is off the bench as a 3rd option on roughly 33 minutes/night. Rockets fans this season see him as a 18/20 PPG player with a 40% 3 point shot (assuming he can't keep up the kind of shooting he's had thus far) playing next to a ball dominant guard in Harden. It's hard to know how many assists he would get as the primary ball handler on another team.

Interestingly :

In the 5 games he has played for the #Rockets w/o James Harden, Jeremy Lin is averaging 24.0 points on 47.4% FG (17-29 3P) and 8.0 assists.

Lin is also an underrated defender.

So... summary:

Rockets fans would be okay with a trade of Asik + bev + dmo and maybe a pick for Rondo. They would prefer to keep Lin who they see as having a lot of potential and currently the Rockets' most efficient scorer this season.

They would be split on a Lin + Asik for Rondo trade, which goes to show the disparity between fans in rating the players on their team. Though I think in the end most fans would go for it.

My opinion is that Rondo + filler for Lin + Asik + Dmo + pick would be ideal/fair to both teams.

However, both Asik and Lin are winners, you guys would win a lot of games post ASB with them and that will hurt your pick.

Just some food for thought.

  Harden seems to be quite the star player and Parsons is pretty good as well. I'd think that if Asik and Lin were as good as they think the Rockets would have been better than 8th seed and easy pickings for the Thunder (if Westbrook was healthy). And Lin's not an underrated defender.

[Chemistry]

  Harden seems to be quite the star player and Parsons is pretty good as well. I'd think that if Asik and Lin were as good as they think the Rockets would have been better than 8th seed and easy pickings for the Thunder (if Westbrook was healthy). And Lin's not an underrated defender.

Harden is one of the top 3 SGs in the league. Rockets' fans would rate him as number one. Parsons is great value on his current contract though exactly where he sits is hard to say. I think this season is a big test for Harden in the playoffs to really prove himself to be the superstar we think he is.

The big weakness for the Rockets last year was the 4 spot. There was very little rebounding there, putting a lot of pressure on Asik. Also there was no backup centre. Every time Asik sat it was like a layup drill for other teams(which is why some would argue he played a more important role than Harden) and you repeatedly saw the leads diminish. Typically the starters would do well and the bench got obliterated. DMO, T-Jones and Greg Smith were all pretty underwhelming last season. Though both DMO and TJones seem to have improved a lot over the off season.

There were also chemistry issues in terms of figuring out roles for Harden and Lin. I think there was one ONE player on the roster from the year before by the end of the season so that is also something to consider.

Despite all this the Rockets' came very close to being 6th (and at a push 5th) seed in the Western conference.

Personally I put that down to McHale. I'm not convinced he is the coach to carry the Rockets' to a championship. Just this season the rockets lost two games where they had a lead of 3 points with seconds left on the game clock and he opted to not foul in those situations.

The rockets' team defense remains poor despite having Dwight on the team. I think this is part chemistry, part coaching.

As for Lin's defense, I think this post on clutchfans is a good summary of his defensive statistics, including advanced stats:

http://bbs.clutchfans.net/showpost.php?p=7506312&postcount=176

Statistically, Lin is an above average defender in the NBA.

[BballTim]

  Harden seems to be quite the star player and Parsons is pretty good as well. I'd think that if Asik and Lin were as good as they think the Rockets would have been better than 8th seed and easy pickings for the Thunder (if Westbrook was healthy). And Lin's not an underrated defender.

Harden is one of the top 3 SGs in the league. Rockets' fans would rate him as number one. Parsons is great value on his current contract though exactly where he sits is hard to say. I think this season is a big test for Harden in the playoffs to really prove himself to be the superstar we think he is.

The big weakness for the Rockets last year was the 4 spot. There was very little rebounding there, putting a lot of pressure on Asik. Also there was no backup centre. Every time Asik sat it was like a layup drill for other teams(which is why some would argue he played a more important role than Harden) and you repeatedly saw the leads diminish. Typically the starters would do well and the bench got obliterated. DMO, T-Jones and Greg Smith were all pretty underwhelming last season. Though both DMO and TJones seem to have improved a lot over the off season.

There were also chemistry issues in terms of figuring out roles for Harden and Lin. I think there was one ONE player on the roster from the year before by the end of the season so that is also something to consider.

Despite all this the Rockets' came very close to being 6th (and at a push 5th) seed in the Western conference.

Personally I put that down to McHale. I'm not convinced he is the coach to carry the Rockets' to a championship. Just this season the rockets lost two games where they had a lead of 3 points with seconds left on the game clock and he opted to not foul in those situations.

The rockets' team defense remains poor despite having Dwight on the team. I think this is part chemistry, part coaching.

As for Lin's defense, I think this post on clutchfans is a good summary of his defensive statistics, including advanced stats:

http://bbs.clutchfans.net/showpost.php?p=7506312&postcount=176

Statistically, Lin is an above average defender in the NBA.

  Right now he's ranked 244th in opposing PPP, which means the average team has 8 players that are getting minutes that are better. Numbers go up and numbers go down. For instance, his DRtg was 105 when that post was made, it ended up at 107, so his play over the rest of that year was worse than 107. Look at the other players with a DRtg around 107 last year, it's not an impressive (defensively) group.

[Fafnir]

I don't think Lin is above average defensively, he gets blown by too easily on the perimeter. His length helps him challenge shots effectively but his quickness and defensive instincts are poor.

Synergy stats don't catch that in my view, often they credit the play against the help defender in that situation. (or the ball is moved after the help comes and the play goes elsewhere).

This is similar to how Ray Allen had rather good defensive numbers with the C's via synergy his last year with us. He was a bad defender overall but the team covered for him. Next year similar defensive ability but the Heat's scheme exposed him instead.

[Eddie20]

Exactly. I see him as top 10 PG too, and there is nothing wrong with that. Eventually though, Tim is going to have to stop using what happened in mid-2010 as a reference point since we're only about 45 days away from 2014.

  Use his more recent play as a reference point. Led the league in assists the last 2 years, started the last all-star game, made 3rd team all-nba. I'm guessing you missed all and that?

Tim's mindset-

Rondo plays poorly = Rondo's hurt
Celtics play poorly and underachieve = It's his teammates fault
Rondo gets suspended = It's the refs fault
Rumors of Rondo being "difficult" = False reports trying to smear his reputation
Rumors of Rondo being shopped = False reports trying to devalue him

  Obviously I've never said anything remotely related to most of that. I get comments like this in some of these Rondo discussions, by people who either don't pay a lot of attention to what they read or base their claims on incorrect claims others make. Somehow it seems fitting.

Being named 3rd team all-nba years ago makes him a top 5-10 player? Consider that some of the players not named on those teams that year were Rose, George, D. Williams, Lopez, Gasol, Curry, Irving, Harden, etc. In addition, out of the 15 players on the 3 all-nba teams he finished 13th in terms of total votes. Also, things change quickly. Pierce, KG, Nash, Joe Johnson all received a lot of votes that year.

Being named an all-star starter by the FANS makes you a top 5-10 player? So when Yao was starting over Shaq was he better? How about when Magic started that all-star game in Orlando? A popularity contest, which that's what that essentially is,means little.

Ok, so he led the league in APG the last 2 years. I can't argue with that. However, Gervais Vasquez averaged only 2 apg less than he did. If he played alongside KG, Pierce, etc. surely that disparity would've narrowed.

And you actually have made those statements, but I dont have the time or drive to research it to prove you wrong. I do,however, recall you blaming his poor performance in the Finals on injury. Did you not? I mean you wrote that exact thing a few posts back.

[Vox_Populi]

I agree he torched Mario Chalmers.  Torching Mario Chalmers doesn't necessarily negate the fact that 90% of the time he's merely a Top 10 PG.

Except he didn't torch Chalmers. He torched Wade. They put Chalmers on Allen once Rondo got hot. It stayed that way for the majority of the series. James even guarded Rondo sometimes.

[BballTim]

Exactly. I see him as top 10 PG too, and there is nothing wrong with that. Eventually though, Tim is going to have to stop using what happened in mid-2010 as a reference point since we're only about 45 days away from 2014.

  Use his more recent play as a reference point. Led the league in assists the last 2 years, started the last all-star game, made 3rd team all-nba. I'm guessing you missed all and that?

Tim's mindset-

Rondo plays poorly = Rondo's hurt
Celtics play poorly and underachieve = It's his teammates fault
Rondo gets suspended = It's the refs fault
Rumors of Rondo being "difficult" = False reports trying to smear his reputation
Rumors of Rondo being shopped = False reports trying to devalue him

  Obviously I've never said anything remotely related to most of that. I get comments like this in some of these Rondo discussions, by people who either don't pay a lot of attention to what they read or base their claims on incorrect claims others make. Somehow it seems fitting.

Being named 3rd team all-nba years ago makes him a top 5-10 player? Consider that some of the players not named on those teams that year were Rose, George, D. Williams, Lopez, Gasol, Curry, Irving, Harden, etc. In addition, out of the 15 players on the 3 all-nba teams he finished 13th in terms of total votes. Also, things change quickly. Pierce, KG, Nash, Joe Johnson all received a lot of votes that year.

Being named an all-star starter by the FANS makes you a top 5-10 player? So when Yao was starting over Shaq was he better? How about when Magic started that all-star game in Orlando? A popularity contest, which that's what that essentially is,means little.

  Nothing MAKES you a top 5-10 player. I was just pointing out that Rondo didn't have to look back to 2010 to make a case as a top player. Anyone who saw the 2012 playoffs could tell you that. And that 13th in all nba voting can change quickly, but not always. Rondo was 13th in 2012, 13th in 2011 and 17th in 2010. In terms of point guards, he was 3rd, 4th and 4th in those 3 years.

  But, while it's true that none of that means much in the grand scheme of things, it's worth pointing out that I wasn't using that as evidence that he's a top 5-10 player. I was just pointing out that your claim that he's a "top 10 point guard" isn't exactly mainstream.

Ok, so he led the league in APG the last 2 years. I can't argue with that. However, Gervais Vasquez averaged only 2 apg less than he did. If he played alongside KG, Pierce, etc. surely that disparity would've narrowed.

  Surely the disparity would have narrowed? Based on what? The 5 assists/game he averaged the year before and the year after (so far)? The expectation that PP and KG and others would pass the ball less and shoot the ball more than they did on the Celts? The expectation that he'd control the ball and be the focus of the offense as much as he did on a crappy team when he's on the court with PP? Any of the factors beyond "PP and KG are good shooters" that wouldn't occur to you?

And you actually have made those statements, but I dont have the time or drive to research it to prove you wrong. I do,however, recall you blaming his poor performance in the Finals on injury. Did you not? I mean you wrote that exact thing a few posts back.

  Sure, I said that his play in the 2010 finals was affected by an injury. I tend to point that out on occasion because I find to be so amusing that people who claim to watch Rondo close enough to pick up on every flaw and every poor play that he makes are unable to notice when he's struggling with health issues. This isn't limited to Rondo btw.

  And, to save you the research, I also have mentioned from time to time that Rondo's play in the 2008 finals was affected by a sprained ankle. He injured it in game 3, came out of the game when it happened and played ineffectively in limited minutes for that game and the next 2. It's a true story, you can read about it on the internet if you like. Plenty of the Rondo "experts" here will tell you that he was "benched during the finals" due to poor play, I wouldn't be surprised to find you in that group.

  Should I also mention that his play in the 2011 playoffs was affected by an elbow injury he suffered, or did you miss that as well?

[RAcker]

I really can't believe this thread. The OP really think Rondo could get us Asik?

Asik is a bonafide super star and plays at and above MVP levels in the playoffs. He is easily in the top 5 at his position. Asik has a ring and brings championship experience.

And you think Rondo... just an average player who can't shoot will be enough to bring us this kind of talent? You really think Houston would ever do that?

Top notch!  TP