Rondo update from Ainge...Mid December return at earliest. Preaching 'caution'.

[Interceptor]

He's actually a good long 2 shooter. Or at least he was last year.

He shot 45% from that distance last year. His problems are from 3, at the rim, and his floater in the 3-15 feet range. He shot UNDER 50% at the rim last year. That's really really bad even for a small guard.

Understood, but the three-pointer is still the better shot even with his 2012-13 percentages (and would stay that way until his 3P% drops below 30%). I just hate that shot, with the white-hot fury of a thousand suns.

I mean, if he can keep hitting it at a 45% forever, I'll bite my tongue, but man...

[Fafnir]

He's actually a good long 2 shooter. Or at least he was last year.

He shot 45% from that distance last year. His problems are from 3, at the rim, and his floater in the 3-15 feet range. He shot UNDER 50% at the rim last year. That's really really bad even for a small guard.

I just hate that shot, with the white-hot fury of a thousand suns.

That's taking efficiency stats too far I fear.

[BudweiserCeltic]

Some of the shots AB was taking in the game the other day were in KG-land, aka long twos. I'd be alright if I never saw him shooting one of those ever again. He definitely cannot maintain that FG% with those kind of shots.

He's actually a good long 2 shooter. Or at least he was last year.

He shot 45% from that distance last year. His problems are from 3, at the rim, and his floater in the 3-15 feet range. He shot UNDER 50% at the rim last year. That's really really bad even for a small guard.

His conversion at the rim last year was a disaster, I think recovering from his shoulder surgery had a lot to do with it. My eye test tells me he's finishing much better this year, in particularly he's going much stronger to the rim. In prior years he would often go up and dunk the ball, last year he really never did that... this year he's back to form on that regard.

[Interceptor]

That's taking efficiency stats too far I fear.

Is it? My favorite Avery Bradley was the guy who was 35.5%+ from the corner, and 64% at the rim. My hope is that when Rondo gets back, so does that AB.

[fantankerous]

Late-Jan early Feb is when I expect him to come back.  There needs to be enough sample size for him to enter trade discussions during the Feb 20th trade deadline.  A Jan 26th return at home vs Brooklyn makes the most sense.   He gets to play during KG/Pierce's big return... and it would give him exactly 10 games to play for the Celtics before we trade him at the deadline.  Should be enough time for him to shake off the rust and prove his trade value.

  So after countless posts about how poorly Rondo will play when he eventually comes back from his knee surgery you've now decided that he'll play well enough from day 1 to restore his trade value within 2 weeks of stepping onto a court?

Presuming he's 100% when he comes back he'll probably be about the same.  About 13 points, 9 assists, 5 rebounds, 2 steals.  He's a pretty good player.  Top 10 PG.  I wonder how he'll adjust to not controlling the ball 100% of the time.  I wonder how he'll adjust to not having elite players around him drawing attention.  Wouldn't be surprised to see his FG% drop from his career 48%/24%/62% averages.  WOudln't be surprised to see his turnovers go up.  Wouldn't be surprised to see his assists go down.

I joke sometimes that it could be a career ending injury, but I don't seriously expect that.  Yes, there's always the chance he comes back and plays like complete crap... like Derrick Rose right now.  But if we sit him out until January, get him 100% and give him 10 games, it might be enough to lure some expiring contracts and an asset or two.

  Rondo adjusted pretty well to not having elite players around him when it happened, somewhat gradually starting 3-4 years ago. The team's had plenty of ups and down over the last few years and gone through some stretches of poor offensive play but whenever Rondo's been healthy he's put up good numbers. Expecting his numbers to drop when he's carrying more of the load offensively is probably just wishful thinking on your part.

I don't think KG and Pierce (or Ray) really ever dropped their status as elite shooters from the field- particularly jumpshooters. He had the greatest 3 point shooter of all time, arguably the greatest jumpshooting power forward of all time, and one of the best jumpshooters in the NBA in Pierce.

Their excellent shooting goes hand in hand with his excellent passing. I'm just not sure if his excellent passes get converted into assists on such a terrible shooting team.

That being said, Stephens may run an offense that revolves around back door cuts and fast breaks. I just can't see us getting high percentage shots against NBA starting caliber bigs- particularly when there are two bigs to score against in the paint.

My biggest concern is the spacing he used to have with Ray, Pierce, KG and Terry on either side of him as he penetrated.
Now he's got Green and Avery Bradley and Kelly Olynyk.
Just not quite the same.
We shall see though- it's exciting to think about him returning and possibly being a way better shooter. It's also slightly worrisome to think how he'll have far less efficient shooters surrounding him and less room to drive to the hole because of a lack of spacing.
Could be ugly, also the way he throws himself around and the increased physical contact he'll get inside due to the lack of spacing.

We shall see.

  I don't think Green's a greatly worse jump shooter than PP was the last year or two. I don't think swapping Ray for Bradley caused huge spacing issues. KG makes a difference but if he's playing with Sully he'll have his first low post scorer since Shaq. It might take a little while to click, but I don't think our offense is horribly worse than last year's now, so it's possible people are overestimating the differences.

?  He's at least noticeably worse, and that's even if you completely ignore how much more contested/difficult Pierce's shots are.  Not to mention Green is much faster than Pierce so defenders aren't as in-his-face to begin with.  Teams want Pierce driving to the paint and turning the ball over or not getting foul calls, whereas Green shooting a jump shot or moving the ball is much more preferable than giving him the step.

I'd also need a little more evidence before believing Bradley didn't increase spacing issues compared to Ray.  I constantly saw Rondo and Bradley's defenders helping off them.  It didn't hurt our offense because Bradley was point-blank scoring off cuts when his defender left him, but that's different from not hurting our spacing.

  Last year PP and JG had the same fg% on threes, PP was slightly better from 16-23 feet, PP was better from 10-15 feet, Green was better from 3-9 feet and better at the rim. As for Bradley/Ray, if you want to make the claim that you think playing Avery hurt our spacing but didn't hurt our offense I can live with that.

Your phrasing understates Pierce's superiority.  Pierce was as better from 16-23 feet as Jeff Green was better at the rim.  I'm not sure why Pierce's advantage was qualified as "slightly better" but Green's simply "better." 

[Fafnir]

That's taking efficiency stats too far I fear.

Is it? My favorite Avery Bradley was the guy who was 35.5%+ from the corner, and 64% at the rim. My hope is that when Rondo gets back, so does that AB.

Burning hatred for a jumpshot that isn't a 3?

You can design your offense to get 3s and dunks all you want, but you have to have other ways of getting points too.

Edit: FYI Bradley is shooting 54% within 5 feet this year, which is pretty good for guard.

[mgent]

  Last year PP and JG had the same fg% on threes, PP was slightly better from 16-23 feet, PP was better from 10-15 feet, Green was better from 3-9 feet and better at the rim. As for Bradley/Ray, if you want to make the claim that you think playing Avery hurt our spacing but didn't hurt our offense I can live with that.

Yeah but the difference is Pierce made twice as many.

The question of sustainability is also there, Pierce shot 39% over the prior 4 years while over the same time Green shot a full 5 points lower than he did last season (.337).

As for Avery I fear that drop-off in spacing will start affecting the offense now that teams have actually had time to learn his game.  Teams were pretending he didn't exist (and they had some reason to) back then.  No matter how invincible you think Rondo is, you can't suggest that with BOTH starting guards shooting 22% from 3 we can just pick up where we left off with Ray on offense.  Not to mention how KG at center meant everything for our spacing, Sully and Olynyk aren't keeping guys as honest as he was.

[mgent]

  I don't think Green's a greatly worse jump shooter than PP was the last year or two. I don't think swapping Ray for Bradley caused huge spacing issues. KG makes a difference but if he's playing with Sully he'll have his first low post scorer since Shaq. It might take a little while to click, but I don't think our offense is horribly worse than last year's now, so it's possible people are overestimating the differences.

?  He's at least noticeably worse, and that's even if you completely ignore how much more contested/difficult Pierce's shots are.  Not to mention Green is much faster than Pierce so defenders aren't as in-his-face to begin with.  Teams want Pierce driving to the paint and turning the ball over or not getting foul calls, whereas Green shooting a jump shot or moving the ball is much more preferable than giving him the step.

I'd also need a little more evidence before believing Bradley didn't increase spacing issues compared to Ray.  I constantly saw Rondo and Bradley's defenders helping off them.  It didn't hurt our offense because Bradley was point-blank scoring off cuts when his defender left him, but that's different from not hurting our spacing.

  Last year PP and JG had the same fg% on threes, PP was slightly better from 16-23 feet, PP was better from 10-15 feet, Green was better from 3-9 feet and better at the rim. As for Bradley/Ray, if you want to make the claim that you think playing Avery hurt our spacing but didn't hurt our offense I can live with that.

Your phrasing understates Pierce's superiority.  Pierce was as better from 16-23 feet as Jeff Green was better at the rim.  I'm not sure why Pierce's advantage was qualified as "slightly better" but Green's simply "better."

And still completely ignores the increased difficulty of Pierce's shots, the way defenders guard each player, and how often Pierce was our bail-out option.

[Interceptor]

Burning hatred for a jumpshot that isn't a 3?

On Avery, because we've seen him being more efficient. This isn't Bass we're talking about, here. That ship may have sailed now that people know that he needs to be defended, but I hate seeing him out there, a step inside the line, given what he's been capable of before.

You can design your offense to get 3s and dunks all you want, but you have to have other ways of getting points too.

Like I said, if he keeps channeling his inner KG and shooting laser beams, I'll keep my mouth shut, because points are points. But I want to see him being used for his old shenanigans, shooting corner threes and cutting to the rim, and he can't do that from where he was taking his shots on Monday.

[BballTim]

Late-Jan early Feb is when I expect him to come back.  There needs to be enough sample size for him to enter trade discussions during the Feb 20th trade deadline.  A Jan 26th return at home vs Brooklyn makes the most sense.   He gets to play during KG/Pierce's big return... and it would give him exactly 10 games to play for the Celtics before we trade him at the deadline.  Should be enough time for him to shake off the rust and prove his trade value.

  So after countless posts about how poorly Rondo will play when he eventually comes back from his knee surgery you've now decided that he'll play well enough from day 1 to restore his trade value within 2 weeks of stepping onto a court?

Presuming he's 100% when he comes back he'll probably be about the same.  About 13 points, 9 assists, 5 rebounds, 2 steals.  He's a pretty good player.  Top 10 PG.  I wonder how he'll adjust to not controlling the ball 100% of the time.  I wonder how he'll adjust to not having elite players around him drawing attention.  Wouldn't be surprised to see his FG% drop from his career 48%/24%/62% averages.  WOudln't be surprised to see his turnovers go up.  Wouldn't be surprised to see his assists go down.

I joke sometimes that it could be a career ending injury, but I don't seriously expect that.  Yes, there's always the chance he comes back and plays like complete crap... like Derrick Rose right now.  But if we sit him out until January, get him 100% and give him 10 games, it might be enough to lure some expiring contracts and an asset or two.

  Rondo adjusted pretty well to not having elite players around him when it happened, somewhat gradually starting 3-4 years ago. The team's had plenty of ups and down over the last few years and gone through some stretches of poor offensive play but whenever Rondo's been healthy he's put up good numbers. Expecting his numbers to drop when he's carrying more of the load offensively is probably just wishful thinking on your part.

I don't think KG and Pierce (or Ray) really ever dropped their status as elite shooters from the field- particularly jumpshooters. He had the greatest 3 point shooter of all time, arguably the greatest jumpshooting power forward of all time, and one of the best jumpshooters in the NBA in Pierce.

Their excellent shooting goes hand in hand with his excellent passing. I'm just not sure if his excellent passes get converted into assists on such a terrible shooting team.

That being said, Stephens may run an offense that revolves around back door cuts and fast breaks. I just can't see us getting high percentage shots against NBA starting caliber bigs- particularly when there are two bigs to score against in the paint.

My biggest concern is the spacing he used to have with Ray, Pierce, KG and Terry on either side of him as he penetrated.
Now he's got Green and Avery Bradley and Kelly Olynyk.
Just not quite the same.
We shall see though- it's exciting to think about him returning and possibly being a way better shooter. It's also slightly worrisome to think how he'll have far less efficient shooters surrounding him and less room to drive to the hole because of a lack of spacing.
Could be ugly, also the way he throws himself around and the increased physical contact he'll get inside due to the lack of spacing.

We shall see.

  I don't think Green's a greatly worse jump shooter than PP was the last year or two. I don't think swapping Ray for Bradley caused huge spacing issues. KG makes a difference but if he's playing with Sully he'll have his first low post scorer since Shaq. It might take a little while to click, but I don't think our offense is horribly worse than last year's now, so it's possible people are overestimating the differences.

?  He's at least noticeably worse, and that's even if you completely ignore how much more contested/difficult Pierce's shots are.  Not to mention Green is much faster than Pierce so defenders aren't as in-his-face to begin with.  Teams want Pierce driving to the paint and turning the ball over or not getting foul calls, whereas Green shooting a jump shot or moving the ball is much more preferable than giving him the step.

I'd also need a little more evidence before believing Bradley didn't increase spacing issues compared to Ray.  I constantly saw Rondo and Bradley's defenders helping off them.  It didn't hurt our offense because Bradley was point-blank scoring off cuts when his defender left him, but that's different from not hurting our spacing.

  Last year PP and JG had the same fg% on threes, PP was slightly better from 16-23 feet, PP was better from 10-15 feet, Green was better from 3-9 feet and better at the rim. As for Bradley/Ray, if you want to make the claim that you think playing Avery hurt our spacing but didn't hurt our offense I can live with that.

Your phrasing understates Pierce's superiority.  Pierce was as better from 16-23 feet as Jeff Green was better at the rim.  I'm not sure why Pierce's advantage was qualified as "slightly better" but Green's simply "better."

  Haha. Good catch, I did leave out a "slightly" in my statement. But what the phrasing understates is their similarity. They aren't identical, but neither had a great overall advantage.

[BballTim]

  I don't think Green's a greatly worse jump shooter than PP was the last year or two. I don't think swapping Ray for Bradley caused huge spacing issues. KG makes a difference but if he's playing with Sully he'll have his first low post scorer since Shaq. It might take a little while to click, but I don't think our offense is horribly worse than last year's now, so it's possible people are overestimating the differences.

?  He's at least noticeably worse, and that's even if you completely ignore how much more contested/difficult Pierce's shots are.  Not to mention Green is much faster than Pierce so defenders aren't as in-his-face to begin with.  Teams want Pierce driving to the paint and turning the ball over or not getting foul calls, whereas Green shooting a jump shot or moving the ball is much more preferable than giving him the step.

I'd also need a little more evidence before believing Bradley didn't increase spacing issues compared to Ray.  I constantly saw Rondo and Bradley's defenders helping off them.  It didn't hurt our offense because Bradley was point-blank scoring off cuts when his defender left him, but that's different from not hurting our spacing.

  Last year PP and JG had the same fg% on threes, PP was slightly better from 16-23 feet, PP was better from 10-15 feet, Green was better from 3-9 feet and better at the rim. As for Bradley/Ray, if you want to make the claim that you think playing Avery hurt our spacing but didn't hurt our offense I can live with that.

Your phrasing understates Pierce's superiority.  Pierce was as better from 16-23 feet as Jeff Green was better at the rim.  I'm not sure why Pierce's advantage was qualified as "slightly better" but Green's simply "better."

And still completely ignores the increased difficulty of Pierce's shots, the way defenders guard each player, and how often Pierce was our bail-out option.

  Bail-out option matters, but according to 82games Green took a higher percentage of his shots at the end of the shot clock than PP did last year.

[Drucci]

I'm feeling a surprise Rondo comeback earlier than announced, a la Perkins.

[TwinTower14]

not going to be for a while, considering he hasn't even been cleared for contact...

[SHAQATTACK]

Say n again,  be shocked if h plays before 2014 ........I think Feb  showing  might happen