Rondo update from Ainge...Mid December return at earliest. Preaching 'caution'.

[PhoSita]

Early to mid January continues to look like a realistic return timeframe to me.

Maybe late December, but I don't think there'll be any urgency with bringing him back.

[Donoghus]

There should be 0% urgency to bring Rondo back by the organization.

[mgent]

Late-Jan early Feb is when I expect him to come back.  There needs to be enough sample size for him to enter trade discussions during the Feb 20th trade deadline.  A Jan 26th return at home vs Brooklyn makes the most sense.   He gets to play during KG/Pierce's big return... and it would give him exactly 10 games to play for the Celtics before we trade him at the deadline.  Should be enough time for him to shake off the rust and prove his trade value.

  So after countless posts about how poorly Rondo will play when he eventually comes back from his knee surgery you've now decided that he'll play well enough from day 1 to restore his trade value within 2 weeks of stepping onto a court?

Presuming he's 100% when he comes back he'll probably be about the same.  About 13 points, 9 assists, 5 rebounds, 2 steals.  He's a pretty good player.  Top 10 PG.  I wonder how he'll adjust to not controlling the ball 100% of the time.  I wonder how he'll adjust to not having elite players around him drawing attention.  Wouldn't be surprised to see his FG% drop from his career 48%/24%/62% averages.  WOudln't be surprised to see his turnovers go up.  Wouldn't be surprised to see his assists go down.

I joke sometimes that it could be a career ending injury, but I don't seriously expect that.  Yes, there's always the chance he comes back and plays like complete crap... like Derrick Rose right now.  But if we sit him out until January, get him 100% and give him 10 games, it might be enough to lure some expiring contracts and an asset or two.

  Rondo adjusted pretty well to not having elite players around him when it happened, somewhat gradually starting 3-4 years ago. The team's had plenty of ups and down over the last few years and gone through some stretches of poor offensive play but whenever Rondo's been healthy he's put up good numbers. Expecting his numbers to drop when he's carrying more of the load offensively is probably just wishful thinking on your part.

I don't think KG and Pierce (or Ray) really ever dropped their status as elite shooters from the field- particularly jumpshooters. He had the greatest 3 point shooter of all time, arguably the greatest jumpshooting power forward of all time, and one of the best jumpshooters in the NBA in Pierce.

Their excellent shooting goes hand in hand with his excellent passing. I'm just not sure if his excellent passes get converted into assists on such a terrible shooting team.

That being said, Stephens may run an offense that revolves around back door cuts and fast breaks. I just can't see us getting high percentage shots against NBA starting caliber bigs- particularly when there are two bigs to score against in the paint.

My biggest concern is the spacing he used to have with Ray, Pierce, KG and Terry on either side of him as he penetrated.
Now he's got Green and Avery Bradley and Kelly Olynyk.
Just not quite the same.
We shall see though- it's exciting to think about him returning and possibly being a way better shooter. It's also slightly worrisome to think how he'll have far less efficient shooters surrounding him and less room to drive to the hole because of a lack of spacing.
Could be ugly, also the way he throws himself around and the increased physical contact he'll get inside due to the lack of spacing.

We shall see.

  I don't think Green's a greatly worse jump shooter than PP was the last year or two. I don't think swapping Ray for Bradley caused huge spacing issues. KG makes a difference but if he's playing with Sully he'll have his first low post scorer since Shaq. It might take a little while to click, but I don't think our offense is horribly worse than last year's now, so it's possible people are overestimating the differences.

?  He's at least noticeably worse, and that's even if you completely ignore how much more contested/difficult Pierce's shots are.  Not to mention Green is much faster than Pierce so defenders aren't as in-his-face to begin with.  Teams want Pierce driving to the paint and turning the ball over or not getting foul calls, whereas Green shooting a jump shot or moving the ball is much more preferable than giving him the step.

I'd also need a little more evidence before believing Bradley didn't increase spacing issues compared to Ray.  I constantly saw Rondo and Bradley's defenders helping off them.  It didn't hurt our offense because Bradley was point-blank scoring off cuts when his defender left him, but that's different from not hurting our spacing.

[TheTruthFot18]

Makes zero sense to rush him back .

I want maximum time of Rondo and Bradley playing together before Ainge gives Bradley the kind of contract that commits to that duo being the long-term starting backcourt for the Celtics.

The second half of the season should be enough time to see this.  At least Bradley is playing SG now, and has been playing much better of late.

Very true. Those first couple of games were horrendous for AB. So DA can wait until the end of the season to offer a long term contract? If so, then yes I'd like to see them play the 2nd half of the season together to see if its worth it.

[Fafnir]

Makes zero sense to rush him back .

I want maximum time of Rondo and Bradley playing together before Ainge gives Bradley the kind of contract that commits to that duo being the long-term starting backcourt for the Celtics.

The second half of the season should be enough time to see this.  At least Bradley is playing SG now, and has been playing much better of late.

Very true. Those first couple of games were horrendous for AB. So DA can wait until the end of the season to offer a long term contract? If so, then yes I'd like to see them play the 2nd half of the season together to see if its worth it.

Yeah he responded well to being moved back to SG.

14 PPG, 50% FG%, 37.5% 3P%,.560 TS%, 3.8 RPG, 1.6 SPG, 1.6 TOPG

That sort of production you can live with for a defensive SG.

[NocturnalRebel]

Can't wait to see Rondo back out there.

[PhoSita]

Makes zero sense to rush him back .

I want maximum time of Rondo and Bradley playing together before Ainge gives Bradley the kind of contract that commits to that duo being the long-term starting backcourt for the Celtics.

The second half of the season should be enough time to see this.  At least Bradley is playing SG now, and has been playing much better of late.

Very true. Those first couple of games were horrendous for AB. So DA can wait until the end of the season to offer a long term contract? If so, then yes I'd like to see them play the 2nd half of the season together to see if its worth it.

Yeah he responded well to being moved back to SG.

14 PPG, 50% FG%, 37.5% 3P%,.560 TS%, 3.8 RPG, 1.6 SPG, 1.6 TOPG

That sort of production you can live with for a defensive SG.

Indeed.

I really would like to see a large sample size of Bradley playing exclusively at SG.  He looks great when his shot is falling, but he's pretty streaky and he might just be hot right now.

[Interceptor]

Some of the shots AB was taking in the game the other day were in KG-land, aka long twos. I'd be alright if I never saw him shooting one of those ever again. He definitely cannot maintain that FG% with those kind of shots.

[LarBrd33]

Late-Jan early Feb is when I expect him to come back.  There needs to be enough sample size for him to enter trade discussions during the Feb 20th trade deadline.  A Jan 26th return at home vs Brooklyn makes the most sense.   He gets to play during KG/Pierce's big return... and it would give him exactly 10 games to play for the Celtics before we trade him at the deadline.  Should be enough time for him to shake off the rust and prove his trade value.

  So after countless posts about how poorly Rondo will play when he eventually comes back from his knee surgery you've now decided that he'll play well enough from day 1 to restore his trade value within 2 weeks of stepping onto a court?

Presuming he's 100% when he comes back he'll probably be about the same.  About 13 points, 9 assists, 5 rebounds, 2 steals.  He's a pretty good player.  Top 10 PG.  I wonder how he'll adjust to not controlling the ball 100% of the time.  I wonder how he'll adjust to not having elite players around him drawing attention.  Wouldn't be surprised to see his FG% drop from his career 48%/24%/62% averages.  WOudln't be surprised to see his turnovers go up.  Wouldn't be surprised to see his assists go down.

I joke sometimes that it could be a career ending injury, but I don't seriously expect that.  Yes, there's always the chance he comes back and plays like complete crap... like Derrick Rose right now.  But if we sit him out until January, get him 100% and give him 10 games, it might be enough to lure some expiring contracts and an asset or two.

 Expecting his numbers to drop when he's carrying more of the load offensively is probably just wishful thinking on your part.

Let's clear this up.  I wish Rondo would come back, start dropping 30 points, 20 assists and 100 rebounds a game.  I'm a Celtic fan and I'm a Rajon Rondo fan.  Don't insinuate that I wish Rondo to fail simply because I'm a pessimist.  That's silly, Tim.  In my ideal world, you'd be 100% right all of the time.  What a grand reality it would be if Rajon Rondo was literally a superstar.     

[BballTim]

Late-Jan early Feb is when I expect him to come back.  There needs to be enough sample size for him to enter trade discussions during the Feb 20th trade deadline.  A Jan 26th return at home vs Brooklyn makes the most sense.   He gets to play during KG/Pierce's big return... and it would give him exactly 10 games to play for the Celtics before we trade him at the deadline.  Should be enough time for him to shake off the rust and prove his trade value.

  So after countless posts about how poorly Rondo will play when he eventually comes back from his knee surgery you've now decided that he'll play well enough from day 1 to restore his trade value within 2 weeks of stepping onto a court?

Presuming he's 100% when he comes back he'll probably be about the same.  About 13 points, 9 assists, 5 rebounds, 2 steals.  He's a pretty good player.  Top 10 PG.  I wonder how he'll adjust to not controlling the ball 100% of the time.  I wonder how he'll adjust to not having elite players around him drawing attention.  Wouldn't be surprised to see his FG% drop from his career 48%/24%/62% averages.  WOudln't be surprised to see his turnovers go up.  Wouldn't be surprised to see his assists go down.

I joke sometimes that it could be a career ending injury, but I don't seriously expect that.  Yes, there's always the chance he comes back and plays like complete crap... like Derrick Rose right now.  But if we sit him out until January, get him 100% and give him 10 games, it might be enough to lure some expiring contracts and an asset or two.

  Rondo adjusted pretty well to not having elite players around him when it happened, somewhat gradually starting 3-4 years ago. The team's had plenty of ups and down over the last few years and gone through some stretches of poor offensive play but whenever Rondo's been healthy he's put up good numbers. Expecting his numbers to drop when he's carrying more of the load offensively is probably just wishful thinking on your part.

I don't think KG and Pierce (or Ray) really ever dropped their status as elite shooters from the field- particularly jumpshooters. He had the greatest 3 point shooter of all time, arguably the greatest jumpshooting power forward of all time, and one of the best jumpshooters in the NBA in Pierce.

Their excellent shooting goes hand in hand with his excellent passing. I'm just not sure if his excellent passes get converted into assists on such a terrible shooting team.

That being said, Stephens may run an offense that revolves around back door cuts and fast breaks. I just can't see us getting high percentage shots against NBA starting caliber bigs- particularly when there are two bigs to score against in the paint.

My biggest concern is the spacing he used to have with Ray, Pierce, KG and Terry on either side of him as he penetrated.
Now he's got Green and Avery Bradley and Kelly Olynyk.
Just not quite the same.
We shall see though- it's exciting to think about him returning and possibly being a way better shooter. It's also slightly worrisome to think how he'll have far less efficient shooters surrounding him and less room to drive to the hole because of a lack of spacing.
Could be ugly, also the way he throws himself around and the increased physical contact he'll get inside due to the lack of spacing.

We shall see.

  I don't think Green's a greatly worse jump shooter than PP was the last year or two. I don't think swapping Ray for Bradley caused huge spacing issues. KG makes a difference but if he's playing with Sully he'll have his first low post scorer since Shaq. It might take a little while to click, but I don't think our offense is horribly worse than last year's now, so it's possible people are overestimating the differences.

?  He's at least noticeably worse, and that's even if you completely ignore how much more contested/difficult Pierce's shots are.  Not to mention Green is much faster than Pierce so defenders aren't as in-his-face to begin with.  Teams want Pierce driving to the paint and turning the ball over or not getting foul calls, whereas Green shooting a jump shot or moving the ball is much more preferable than giving him the step.

I'd also need a little more evidence before believing Bradley didn't increase spacing issues compared to Ray.  I constantly saw Rondo and Bradley's defenders helping off them.  It didn't hurt our offense because Bradley was point-blank scoring off cuts when his defender left him, but that's different from not hurting our spacing.

  Last year PP and JG had the same fg% on threes, PP was slightly better from 16-23 feet, PP was better from 10-15 feet, Green was better from 3-9 feet and better at the rim. As for Bradley/Ray, if you want to make the claim that you think playing Avery hurt our spacing but didn't hurt our offense I can live with that.

[Fafnir]

Some of the shots AB was taking in the game the other day were in KG-land, aka long twos. I'd be alright if I never saw him shooting one of those ever again. He definitely cannot maintain that FG% with those kind of shots.

He's actually a good long 2 shooter. Or at least he was last year.

He shot 45% from that distance last year. His problems are from 3, at the rim, and his floater in the 3-15 feet range. He shot UNDER 50% at the rim last year. That's really really bad even for a small guard.

[CapnDunks]

I'm hoping rondo stays out as long as possible this season. If he comes back to soon/strong I'm afraid he'll get traded to improve next years pick.

[BballTim]

Late-Jan early Feb is when I expect him to come back.  There needs to be enough sample size for him to enter trade discussions during the Feb 20th trade deadline.  A Jan 26th return at home vs Brooklyn makes the most sense.   He gets to play during KG/Pierce's big return... and it would give him exactly 10 games to play for the Celtics before we trade him at the deadline.  Should be enough time for him to shake off the rust and prove his trade value.

  So after countless posts about how poorly Rondo will play when he eventually comes back from his knee surgery you've now decided that he'll play well enough from day 1 to restore his trade value within 2 weeks of stepping onto a court?

Presuming he's 100% when he comes back he'll probably be about the same.  About 13 points, 9 assists, 5 rebounds, 2 steals.  He's a pretty good player.  Top 10 PG.  I wonder how he'll adjust to not controlling the ball 100% of the time.  I wonder how he'll adjust to not having elite players around him drawing attention.  Wouldn't be surprised to see his FG% drop from his career 48%/24%/62% averages.  WOudln't be surprised to see his turnovers go up.  Wouldn't be surprised to see his assists go down.

I joke sometimes that it could be a career ending injury, but I don't seriously expect that.  Yes, there's always the chance he comes back and plays like complete crap... like Derrick Rose right now.  But if we sit him out until January, get him 100% and give him 10 games, it might be enough to lure some expiring contracts and an asset or two.

 Expecting his numbers to drop when he's carrying more of the load offensively is probably just wishful thinking on your part.

Let's clear this up.  I wish Rondo would come back, start dropping 30 points, 20 assists and 100 rebounds a game.  I'm a Celtic fan and I'm a Rajon Rondo fan.  Don't insinuate that I wish Rondo to fail simply because I'm a pessimist.  That's silly, Tim.  In my ideal world, you'd be 100% right all of the time.  What a grand reality it would be if Rajon Rondo was literally a superstar.   

  Not as grand as your reality, where PP and KG were much better than Rondo up through last year. The 2009 team with KG's knee injury would be the only blemish on our 6 year dynasty.

[Celtics4ever]

I'd be alright if I never saw him shooting one of those ever again

I think with our team any made shots are good.   Not like offense grows on trees.   Mid range shots spread the floor too.

[Celtics18]

Late-Jan early Feb is when I expect him to come back.  There needs to be enough sample size for him to enter trade discussions during the Feb 20th trade deadline.  A Jan 26th return at home vs Brooklyn makes the most sense.   He gets to play during KG/Pierce's big return... and it would give him exactly 10 games to play for the Celtics before we trade him at the deadline.  Should be enough time for him to shake off the rust and prove his trade value.

  So after countless posts about how poorly Rondo will play when he eventually comes back from his knee surgery you've now decided that he'll play well enough from day 1 to restore his trade value within 2 weeks of stepping onto a court?

Presuming he's 100% when he comes back he'll probably be about the same.  About 13 points, 9 assists, 5 rebounds, 2 steals.  He's a pretty good player.  Top 10 PG.  I wonder how he'll adjust to not controlling the ball 100% of the time.  I wonder how he'll adjust to not having elite players around him drawing attention.  Wouldn't be surprised to see his FG% drop from his career 48%/24%/62% averages.  WOudln't be surprised to see his turnovers go up.  Wouldn't be surprised to see his assists go down.

I joke sometimes that it could be a career ending injury, but I don't seriously expect that.  Yes, there's always the chance he comes back and plays like complete crap... like Derrick Rose right now.  But if we sit him out until January, get him 100% and give him 10 games, it might be enough to lure some expiring contracts and an asset or two.

Currently there are no players in the league averaging at least 13 points, 9 rebounds, 5 assists, and 2 steals.  I'd say that those numbers are more than "pretty good."