Late-Jan early Feb is when I expect him to come back. There needs to be enough sample size for him to enter trade discussions during the Feb 20th trade deadline. A Jan 26th return at home vs Brooklyn makes the most sense. He gets to play during KG/Pierce's big return... and it would give him exactly 10 games to play for the Celtics before we trade him at the deadline. Should be enough time for him to shake off the rust and prove his trade value.
So after countless posts about how poorly Rondo will play when he eventually comes back from his knee surgery you've now decided that he'll play well enough from day 1 to restore his trade value within 2 weeks of stepping onto a court?
Presuming he's 100% when he comes back he'll probably be about the same. About 13 points, 9 assists, 5 rebounds, 2 steals. He's a pretty good player. Top 10 PG. I wonder how he'll adjust to not controlling the ball 100% of the time. I wonder how he'll adjust to not having elite players around him drawing attention. Wouldn't be surprised to see his FG% drop from his career 48%/24%/62% averages. WOudln't be surprised to see his turnovers go up. Wouldn't be surprised to see his assists go down.
I joke sometimes that it could be a career ending injury, but I don't seriously expect that. Yes, there's always the chance he comes back and plays like complete crap... like Derrick Rose right now. But if we sit him out until January, get him 100% and give him 10 games, it might be enough to lure some expiring contracts and an asset or two.
Rondo adjusted pretty well to not having elite players around him when it happened, somewhat gradually starting 3-4 years ago. The team's had plenty of ups and down over the last few years and gone through some stretches of poor offensive play but whenever Rondo's been healthy he's put up good numbers. Expecting his numbers to drop when he's carrying more of the load offensively is probably just wishful thinking on your part.
I don't think KG and Pierce (or Ray) really ever dropped their status as elite shooters from the field- particularly jumpshooters. He had the greatest 3 point shooter of all time, arguably the greatest jumpshooting power forward of all time, and one of the best jumpshooters in the NBA in Pierce.
Their excellent shooting goes hand in hand with his excellent passing. I'm just not sure if his excellent passes get converted into assists on such a terrible shooting team.
That being said, Stephens may run an offense that revolves around back door cuts and fast breaks. I just can't see us getting high percentage shots against NBA starting caliber bigs- particularly when there are two bigs to score against in the paint.
My biggest concern is the spacing he used to have with Ray, Pierce, KG and Terry on either side of him as he penetrated.
Now he's got Green and Avery Bradley and Kelly Olynyk.
Just not quite the same.
We shall see though- it's exciting to think about him returning and possibly being a way better shooter. It's also slightly worrisome to think how he'll have far less efficient shooters surrounding him and less room to drive to the hole because of a lack of spacing.
Could be ugly, also the way he throws himself around and the increased physical contact he'll get inside due to the lack of spacing.
We shall see.