How much better does Rondo make this team?

[BballTim]

Now, since we've basically established that Afflalo is too low and Rose is too high...

  So you modify my post (which sounds ridiculous because it applies the same arguments you're making to someone other than Rondo) from Rose to Afflalo and you go directly from that change to claiming that we've basically established the value of those players? Who is the WE and how does one post by you constitute multiple people establishing anything? I'm guessing that this was an attempt at more shenanigans involving quotations that went horribly wrong...

[D.o.s.]

I don't think you'd disagree that our unprotected 1st rounder for Arron Afflalo is a bad trade for the Celtics, the same way Rose for our first would be a bad trade for the Bulls. That's the we. It's called establishing parameters. Adults use them during discourse.



Rose is significantly younger than Rondo at age 23. That's a long way from 27, especially when you're talking about injury recovery/length of professional career/remaining athletic peak.

He's also a player that you can build a team around with fewer pieces than Rondo, on account of his game... which was part of what made him a #1 pick, and not the 22nd. But I'm sure you'll disagree with that, too.



However the point was never the ability of the player, anyway. It was about the fact that, to a GM, an injured player on an above average contract isn't as useful in constructing a team than an unprotected first rounder, because you can lock down a player like Derrick Rose or Rajon Rondo at 19 or 20 to an extremely team friendly contract. The number of teams that could use Rondo, given that reality, is fewer than the number of teams that could use our draft pick.

[Celtics18]

I don't think you'd disagree that our unprotected 1st rounder for Arron Afflalo is a bad trade for the Celtics, the same way Rose for our first would be a bad trade for the Bulls. That's the we. It's called establishing parameters. Adults use them during discourse.



Rose is significantly younger than Rondo at age 23. That's a long way from 27, especially when you're talking about injury recovery/length of professional career/remaining athletic peak.

He's also a player that you can build a team around with fewer pieces than Rondo, on account of his game... which was part of what made him a #1 pick, and not the 22nd. But I'm sure you'll disagree with that, too.



However the point was never the ability of the player, anyway. It was about the fact that, to a GM, an injured player on an above average contract isn't as useful in constructing a team than an unprotected first rounder, because you can lock down a player like Derrick Rose or Rajon Rondo at 19 or 20 to an extremely team friendly contract. The number of teams that could use Rondo, given that reality, is fewer than the number of teams that could use our draft pick.

I think you are overlooking an important point, namely that; Rajon Rondo or Derrick Rose at 19 or 20 aren't worth the same as Rajon Rondo or Derrick Rose at 26 to 32.  The younger versions of superstar or even very good players are almost never worth what they become worth once they enter their primes if you are talking about worth from the perspective of actually helping the team win games and be competitive deep into the playoffs. 

It's one of these situations where, sure, rookie contracts are a bargain, but at some point if you really want to be competitive, you are going to have to shell out big bucks for top level players in their primes.  If you go back and look for NBA champions who have had their best players on rookie contracts, you'll have to go fairly far back.  Now, obviously that doesn't mean that it's impossible for a 24 or under year old to lead his team to a title, just that it is extremely rare.  I think the last player to do so was young Tim Duncan, and he had plenty of help in the likes of David Robinson.

I would guess that most NBA GMs are aware of the fact that young studs on their rookie contracts rarely lead their teams to title contention.  I would also guess that this factors into some of their decisions on relative worth. 

Many fans seem to be of the opinion that it's not worth it to spend max or near max money on a player, unless that player is Lebron James, Tim Duncan, or Shaquille O'Neal.  If we don't have that top twenty all time player, we may as well go with young prospects and hope for luck with the ping pong balls, and wait . . . and wait . . . and wait . . .

Personally, I'm not a fan of that plan.  I know that a lot of basketball people sell that as the only plan, but a vast majority of the teams in this league that actually win championships have shown that this simply isn't the case. 

[BballTim]

I don't think you'd disagree that our unprotected 1st rounder for Arron Afflalo is a bad trade for the Celtics, the same way Rose for our first would be a bad trade for the Bulls. That's the we. It's called establishing parameters. Adults use them during discourse.

  You go from claiming that there's no argument against your point to insisting that it's right because you think so to now lecturing on discourse? Hilarious.

Rose is significantly younger than Rondo at age 23. That's a long way from 27, especially when you're talking about injury recovery/length of professional career/remaining athletic peak.

  Rose isn't 23, he's 25. Or, according to you, near the end of his prime.

He's also a player that you can build a team around with fewer pieces than Rondo, on account of his game... which was part of what made him a #1 pick, and not the 22nd. But I'm sure you'll disagree with that, too.

  Considering how bad KG's knee was in 2010 you could argue that Rose's supporting cast isn't that much worse than the group that Rondo led to the finals. Why don't you let me know what kind of a team you'd need to put around Rose to duplicate that result and we'll compare the respective supporting casts.

However the point was never the ability of the player, anyway. It was about the fact that, to a GM, an injured player on an above average contract isn't as useful in constructing a team than an unprotected first rounder, because you can lock down a player like Derrick Rose or Rajon Rondo at 19 or 20 to an extremely team friendly contract. The number of teams that could use Rondo, given that reality, is fewer than the number of teams that could use our draft pick.

  That's not a fact at all. Here's the main thing you aren't getting. The odds of a given draft pick turning into a player better than Rose or Rondo is low. You're just as likely (if not more likely) to be locking up an OJ Mayo or Tyrus Thomas or Derrick Williams.

  Tell yourself that you're more likely than not to get a player that isn't at Rondo's level with the draft pick. Start looking at the top 8 or so players in previous drafts if you need more convincing. Figure out what kind of player is roughly average from that group, not just the best or worst players, then try and convince yourself that any GM in the league would love to have that player over a 27 year old who's been to 4 straight all-star games because they get paid less. Add in the fact that Rondo's had knee surgery, just don't forget that as far as anyone knows he'll have at least as good of a recovery as Rose.

[D.o.s.]

  You go from claiming that there's no argument against your point to insisting that it's right because you think so to now lecturing on discourse? Hilarious.

You're the one who got all huffy about "we," and I'm still sticking with the Rose is too high Afflalo is too low range for the worth of our 2014 pick, as you've yet to convince me otherwise.

  Rose isn't 23, he's 25. Or, according to you, near the end of his prime.

That would put Rose a shade over the middle of his athletic prime, 23-26, as  Rose just turned 25 two and a half weeks ago. Point being, I doubt he'll be a better athlete at 27 or 28 than he is right now. If we're being that strict,  Rondo will be 28 in the middle of this season, probably a month or six weeks after he starts playing.

Look at Dwyane Wade for a good example of how athleticism fades--he was 24 when he lead his team (with Shaq) to the finals. That Dwyane Wade hasn't existed for at least four years (after 2008-2009). He's only 31 now. So he was, gasp, 27 when he started to lose a step.

  Considering how bad KG's knee was in 2010 you could argue that Rose's supporting cast isn't that much worse than the group that Rondo led to the finals. Why don't you let me know what kind of a team you'd need to put around Rose to duplicate that result and we'll compare the respective supporting casts.

There you go with that "Rondo lead" stuff again. I think it's arguable that Rondo wasn't the best player on that team in every series in 2010, so I'm not sure he fits the definition of "lead" as well as you might like.

On the other end of the equation, Rondo needed three Hall of Fame caliber teammates to make it to the NBA finals. No knock on Deng, Boozer, or Noah, but I don't think they're of the same cut. I also don't think that there's any argument at all to be made that Derrick Rose is absolutely the best player on the Bulls, while there has certainly been pages and pages of threads about who exactly has lead the Celtics over the last five years.

  That's not a fact at all. Here's the main thing you aren't getting. The odds of a given draft pick turning into a player better than Rose or Rondo is low. You're just as likely (if not more likely) to be locking up an OJ Mayo or Tyrus Thomas or Derrick Williams.

  Tell yourself that you're more likely than not to get a player that isn't at Rondo's level with the draft pick. Start looking at the top 8 or so players in previous drafts if you need more convincing. Figure out what kind of player is roughly average from that group, not just the best or worst players, then try and convince yourself that any GM in the league would love to have that player over a 27 year old who's been to 4 straight all-star games because they get paid less. Add in the fact that Rondo's had knee surgery, just don't forget that as far as anyone knows he'll have at least as good of a recovery as Rose.

So here's the disconnect.

To my mind, it's not a "like to have" scenario, because I agree with you--Rondo's probably better than the average lottery draft pick. He is, however, much harder to fit onto a team owing to his salary and his style. Additionally, many teams in the league already have point guards that are A) cheaper and B) younger and C) already theirs, so they have the advantage re: smaller second contracts and Bird Rights. The point is the deepest position in the league right now.

So, if you're a GM, and you're building your team, do you want a Damian Lillard, who is almost certainly not as good as Rondo, for 3 years for the rookie scale (+ a team option and a cheaper second contract), or do you want Rondo for 10 million over two years, after which he's almost assuredly going for a (veteran's) near max contract?

Is that worth it--on a bookkeeping level--for the bump in production?

[Clench123]

People seem to have forgotten how good Rondo is but he'll show us again.  His rebounding skills along with his already amazing passing skill will be huge for this team when he gets back

[BballTim]

  You go from claiming that there's no argument against your point to insisting that it's right because you think so to now lecturing on discourse? Hilarious.

You're the one who got all huffy about "we," and I'm still sticking with the Rose is too high Afflalo is too low range for the worth of our 2014 pick, as you've yet to convince me otherwise.

  Rose isn't 23, he's 25. Or, according to you, near the end of his prime.

That would put Rose a shade over the middle of his athletic prime, 23-26, as  Rose just turned 25 two and a half weeks ago. Point being, I doubt he'll be a better athlete at 27 or 28 than he is right now. If we're being that strict,  Rondo will be 28 in the middle of this season, probably a month or six weeks after he starts playing.

Look at Dwyane Wade for a good example of how athleticism fades--he was 24 when he lead his team (with Shaq) to the finals. That Dwyane Wade hasn't existed for at least four years (after 2008-2009). He's only 31 now. So he was, gasp, 27 when he started to lose a step.

  Yes, as I tried to explain to you, the same Wade who's been slowed by injuries he's accumulated over time. The bulk of titles are won by teams led by superstars older than 27. The bulk of MVPs are won by players older than 27. Claiming that those players are all past their primes is completely ridiculous.

  Considering how bad KG's knee was in 2010 you could argue that Rose's supporting cast isn't that much worse than the group that Rondo led to the finals. Why don't you let me know what kind of a team you'd need to put around Rose to duplicate that result and we'll compare the respective supporting casts.

There you go with that "Rondo lead" stuff again. I think it's arguable that Rondo wasn't the best player on that team in every series in 2010, so I'm not sure he fits the definition of "lead" as well as you might like.

On the other end of the equation, Rondo needed three Hall of Fame caliber teammates to make it to the NBA finals. No knock on Deng, Boozer, or Noah, but I don't think they're of the same cut.

  Rondo had three Hall of Fame caliber teammates when he made it to the finals in 2008, not 2010. Ray and KG were probably fringe all-stars that year, Pierce somewhat better. Garnett averaged 14/7 that year, the lowest numbers he's put up since his rookie year. PP and KG barely made it into the top 20 for scoring (PP) and rebounding (KG) in the playoffs, in fact Rondo pulled down more boards in the finals than KG.

  Paul (6), KG (1) and Ray (0) combined for fewer votes to the 2010 all-nba team than Chris Kaman (9). Last year Noah got 56 votes, Deng got 8 and even Boozer got 2. In the grand scheme of things the voting doesn't mean a lot, but obviously plenty of people think more highly of Rose's teammates than they did of Rondo's 2010 supporting cast. Those Bulls aren't better than the big three in 2008, but KG/PP/RA weren't the same players in 2010. KG wasn't even the player he was in 12-13 that year.