How much better does Rondo make this team?

[SHAQATTACK]

Without infusion of hi end star talent ,  not a lot of difference., win a few extra games and miss out on a better lottery pick.

He is the missing piece for several teams with stars already aboard. He knows it.

I hope he stays ...but unless DA lands a serious star in next year or so,  don't see Rondo hanging Round.

DA   ... Tail is hanging out in the wind IMO .......to dump this  huge mega salary mess of overpaid , bench players and get starting talent on board.

[D.o.s.]

No problem.

At any rate, I don't think there can be any argument right now over the fact that our 2014 draft pick is our most coveted trade asset for most teams.

I might be able to forgive a 15 win season if we get the next LeBron.  Assuming I'm not hit by a car or something.

  Of course there's an argument that a 4 time all-star that's at the beginning of his prime is more coveted than a draft pick. And everyone can forgive a 15 win season if it nets the next LeBron. The question is what you'll be saying if the more likely scenario plays out and it nets the next Mercer/Billups/Green.

That's not an actual argument, just an incorrect statement. there's an argument about it the same way there's an "argument" about climate change.

Rondo'a 28 (hardly the beginning of his prime), coming off a season-ending ACL surgery, and is owed 10 million a year for the next two years while being in line for an equal or larger contract owing to his superior play over the last five years.

There are at least two teams that wouldn't trade for Rajon Rondo. We know for sure about the the Hornets and the Warriors. We can safely expand that list to teams like the Heat, the Thunder, the Grizzlies, the Nuggets, the Spurs, the Bulls, and the Clippers.

All those teams would be much more interested in our first rounder than Rajon Rondo.

Our 2014 first round draft pick is certainly our "most coveted trade asset for most teams." Quotations there to show exactly what you're disagreeing with.

[Celtics18]

No problem.

At any rate, I don't think there can be any argument right now over the fact that our 2014 draft pick is our most coveted trade asset for most teams.

I might be able to forgive a 15 win season if we get the next LeBron.  Assuming I'm not hit by a car or something.

  Of course there's an argument that a 4 time all-star that's at the beginning of his prime is more coveted than a draft pick. And everyone can forgive a 15 win season if it nets the next LeBron. The question is what you'll be saying if the more likely scenario plays out and it nets the next Mercer/Billups/Green.

That's not an actual argument, just an incorrect statement. there's an argument about it the same way there's an "argument" about climate change.

Rondo'a 28 (hardly the beginning of his prime), coming off a season-ending ACL surgery, and is owed 10 million a year for the next two years while being in line for an equal or larger contract owing to his superior play over the last five years.

There are at least two teams that wouldn't trade for Rajon Rondo. We know for sure about the the Hornets and the Warriors. We can safely expand that list to teams like the Heat, the Thunder, the Grizzlies, the Nuggets, the Spurs, the Bulls, and the Clippers.

All those teams would be much more interested in our first rounder than Rajon Rondo.

Our 2014 first round draft pick is certainly our "most coveted trade asset for most teams." Quotations there to show exactly what you're disagreeing with.

You mentioned eight teams.  I'm no math wizard, but I'm fairly sure that 8 out of 29 doesn't equal most.  Also, your inclusion of the Hornets on that list (I'm assuming because they didn't trade Chris Paul for Rondo when they had him) is frankly ridiculous.  Are you taking it that to mean the Hornets hate Rajon Rondo?

I'm also not sure why you think we can safely assume that all the other teams on your list would rather have our 2014 draft pick than Rajon Rondo?  I get the Thunder, the Bulls, and the Clippers, but I'm not so sure about the others.

Also, trading for a draft pick is very risky business.  I'd love to think that our 2014 first rounder has through the roof trade value, but if a team were to consider trading away a budding star for it, they would run the significant risk that such a trade would make the Celtics considerably better, therefore seriously devaluing the value of that pick. 

If a team could be assured that our 2014 pick was guaranteed to net Andrew Wiggins or Jabari Parker then, maybe (and still only maybe), it would have more value than Rajon Rondo.  Otherwise, I don't think that what you are saying is a given at all.

[D.o.s.]

Have you seen how coveted these picks are becoming in the new CBA? A lot of it, at least as far as what I'm seeing, seems to boil down to finance--a rookie scale stud/above average starter is the bees knees for these GM's, because it provides the best value for your dollar, and the most flexibility in filling out the best possible roster.



I mentioned the Hornets owing to CP3, but I don't think they'd try to go after Rondo while they have Jrue Holiday--who is younger and has a much friendlier contract for much longer.


To the math--that's 8 teams I'd feel pretty comfortable suggesting that they absolutely wouldn't take Rondo over our draft pick.

8-29 = 21. If you break down the other 21 teams in half as to "probably would take Rondo over the 1st rounder" and "probably would take the 1st over RR" that'd be 11 teams who probably want Rondo instead of the pick, 10 teams probably want the pick over Rondo. You could round those numbers the other way, but whatever.

In addition to the 8 teams that, to my speculation, would definitely want the pick over Rondo.

11<18.

That's some incredibly fuzzy math, but if you want to make a list of teams that would, to your mind, definitely take Rondo over our draft pick today, I'm not sure you could make a list larger than 8.


And, to be clear, no one hates Rondo. He's just not as lust-worthy as our 2014 pick.

[Celtics18]

Phoenix
Philadelphia
Orlando
Milwaukee
Utah
Miami
Dallas
LA Lakers
Houston
Indiana
New York
Toronto
Detroit
Sacramento
Atlanta
Charlotte
Memphis

There's seventeen teams that I could see preferring Rondo to our 2014 first rounder. 

Anyway, I actually hope you are right, D.o.s.  If our 2014 pick is as valuable as you believe, then I would definitely be looking to trade it to bring in some talent that could help turn this thing around immediately. 

[BballTim]

No problem.

At any rate, I don't think there can be any argument right now over the fact that our 2014 draft pick is our most coveted trade asset for most teams.

I might be able to forgive a 15 win season if we get the next LeBron.  Assuming I'm not hit by a car or something.

  Of course there's an argument that a 4 time all-star that's at the beginning of his prime is more coveted than a draft pick. And everyone can forgive a 15 win season if it nets the next LeBron. The question is what you'll be saying if the more likely scenario plays out and it nets the next Mercer/Billups/Green.

That's not an actual argument, just an incorrect statement. there's an argument about it the same way there's an "argument" about climate change.

Rondo'a 28 (hardly the beginning of his prime), coming off a season-ending ACL surgery, and is owed 10 million a year for the next two years while being in line for an equal or larger contract owing to his superior play over the last five years.

  Rondo's 27, how far along he is in his prime won't really be known until his career is over (unless you read somewhere that all players have their primes over the same years/ages in their careers. And you're glossing over "his superior play over the last five years", which many teams would consider to be much more valuable than "possibly a high pick in a possibly good draft".

There are at least two teams that wouldn't trade for Rajon Rondo. We know for sure about the the Hornets and the Warriors. 

  No, we know that Danny wasn't able to trade for CP3 a few years back. We don't know the details of the offers of either of those negotiations, we don't know that Rondo was actually the sticking point and we have no idea whether those teams would come to the same decision with their current rosters.

 

We can safely expand that list to teams like the Heat, the Thunder, the Grizzlies, the Nuggets, the Spurs, the Bulls, and the Clippers.

All those teams would be much more interested in our first rounder than Rajon Rondo.

  We know if you were their GM they'd be more interested in the pick, other than that it's mainly guesswork. You don't know how highly any teams that don't have top PGs value Rondo and you don't have any idea how highly those teams would value our draft pick. I'm starting to think you're offering your post as an example of a "global warming" argument.

Our 2014 first round draft pick is certainly our "most coveted trade asset for most teams." Quotations there to show exactly what you're disagreeing with.

  I guess you're going to keep going with "Quotations" until you come up with something that would at least qualify as a "zinger". There's no time limit, and I await your next attempt.

[D.o.s.]

  Rondo's 27, how far along he is in his prime won't really be known until his career is over (unless you read somewhere that all players have their primes over the same years/ages in their careers. And you're glossing over "his superior play over the last five years", which many teams would consider to be much more valuable than "possibly a high pick in a possibly good draft".

You're deliberately missing the point here--namely the contract. As to the prime; Suffice it to say that most athletes (and most people in general) are in their physical prime from about 23-26, with their mental prime extending a couple years around that.

  No, we know that Danny wasn't able to trade for CP3 a few years back. We don't know the details of the offers of either of those negotiations, we don't know that Rondo was actually the sticking point and we have no idea whether those teams would come to the same decision with their current rosters.

And here.

We do know, or at least can logically infer, that Danny tried to build a package around Rondo in exchange for Chris Paul in 2011. He said as much on Simmons's podcast a few weeks ago.

We know if you were their GM they'd be more interested in the pick, other than that it's mainly guesswork. You don't know how highly any teams that don't have top PGs value Rondo and you don't have any idea how highly those teams would value our draft pick. I'm starting to think you're offering your post as an example of a "global warming" argument.

Everything we post here is guesswork, based on what's being reported. I put faith in (some) sportswriters, and since the new CBA has been adopted trading away first rounders has dropped off dramatically.

The fact that a rookie scale contract is the most valuable contract in the NBA, however, is not guesswork. I suppose that's why you glossed over that talking point earlier.

We've talked a lot about point guards that we (rightly) wouldn't trade Rondo for, because the perceived upgrade wouldn't be worth the price tag. Chris Paul's a good example of that, as is Deron Williams. I suspect, and again, that's a logical deduction, that Golden State had the same reservation when Danny tried to work a package headlined by Rondo for Steph Curry, before they offered him his extension.

So, since the evidence points to Rondo (rightly) receiving an above average contract, he's certainly less valuable as an asset than a high draft pick to the majority of the teams in the NBA. Especially today, when no one has any idea what, or even if, the ACL injury has done to his game. I'm going to keep harping on this, because you seem content to avoid it.

  I guess you're going to keep going with "Quotations" until you come up with something that would at least qualify as a "zinger". There's no time limit, and I await your next attempt.

Not intended as a zinger, I just don't want the point to be misconstrued.

Which, you know, you did anyway.

[D.o.s.]

Phoenix
Philadelphia
Orlando
Milwaukee
Utah
Miami
Dallas
LA Lakers
Houston
Indiana
New York
Toronto
Detroit
Sacramento
Atlanta
Charlotte
Memphis

There's seventeen teams that I could see preferring Rondo to our 2014 first rounder. 

Anyway, I actually hope you are right, D.o.s.  If our 2014 pick is as valuable as you believe, then I would definitely be looking to trade it to bring in some talent that could help turn this thing around immediately.

Here's where I can agree with you:

Utah
Phoenix
Philly
Sacramento

Because they're shaping up to be brutally awful this season, and have their own shot at a lottery pick.

Dallas
Milkwaukee
Los Angeles

Because they're teams that have tended to avoid high lottery picks in favor of maintaining .500 teams.


Indiana

Because, in all honesty, they're exactly one player like Rondo away from becoming one of the best teams in the ECF.

The other teams you've listed either can't afford him owing to the salary (New York, Memphis, Miami) or would rather prefer a high draft pick to develop young talent (Detroit, Atlanta,Charlotte, Toronto Orlando)--based on their prior team development strategies.

[BballTim]

  Rondo's 27, how far along he is in his prime won't really be known until his career is over (unless you read somewhere that all players have their primes over the same years/ages in their careers. And you're glossing over "his superior play over the last five years", which many teams would consider to be much more valuable than "possibly a high pick in a possibly good draft".

You're deliberately missing the point here--namely the contract. As to the prime; Suffice it to say that most athletes (and most people in general) are in their physical prime from about 23-26, with their mental prime extending a couple years around that.

  I'm not missing the point, the main point is what a player like Rondo brings to the court, not his contract. If he was 33 and had a few years left on his deal that would be a big problem, that's not the case.

  It's also worth pointing out that "As to the prime; Suffice it to say that most athletes (and most people in general) are in their physical prime from about 23-26, with their mental prime extending a couple years around that" is a truly absurd comment when it comes to the nba. According to that LeBron is past his prime, and so was Jordan at the beginning of his 6 titles in 8 years run. Start looking for star players over the last 40 years or so who had the bulk of their accomplishments before they hit 28 or so and you'll be looking at a list of players whose careers were derailed by injuries. Experience and maturity are much more important than you imagine.

  No, we know that Danny wasn't able to trade for CP3 a few years back. We don't know the details of the offers of either of those negotiations, we don't know that Rondo was actually the sticking point and we have no idea whether those teams would come to the same decision with their current rosters.

And here.

We do know, or at least can logically infer, that Danny tried to build a package around Rondo in exchange for Chris Paul in 2011. He said as much on Simmons's podcast a few weeks ago.

  Yes, we all know that Danny tried to build a package around Rondo for CP3 in 2011. We don't know that Rondo was the sticking point, or that Danny didn't have (or want to part with) whatever else NO wanted, or to take back what they wanted him to. But, again, even if they didn't want Rondo a few years back with a different roster, that's hardly evidence that they wouldn't want him ever.

We know if you were their GM they'd be more interested in the pick, other than that it's mainly guesswork. You don't know how highly any teams that don't have top PGs value Rondo and you don't have any idea how highly those teams would value our draft pick. I'm starting to think you're offering your post as an example of a "global warming" argument.

Everything we post here is guesswork, based on what's being reported. I put faith in (some) sportswriters, and since the new CBA has been adopted trading away first rounders has dropped off dramatically.

The fact that a rookie scale contract is the most valuable contract in the NBA, however, is not guesswork. I suppose that's why you glossed over that talking point earlier.

  Rookie contracts are only valuable if the player exceeds the value of the contract. They also aren't generally seen as more valuable than the top performers in the league.

We've talked a lot about point guards that we (rightly) wouldn't trade Rondo for, because the perceived upgrade wouldn't be worth the price tag. Chris Paul's a good example of that, as is Deron Williams. I suspect, and again, that's a logical deduction, that Golden State had the same reservation when Danny tried to work a package headlined by Rondo for Steph Curry, before they offered him his extension.

So, since the evidence points to Rondo (rightly) receiving an above average contract, he's certainly less valuable as an asset than a high draft pick to the majority of the teams in the NBA.

  You seem to have completely divorced asset from players who help a team win games. I still disagree with that premise. Having a rookie contract doesn't universally make players more valuable than players who are better than them

Especially today, when no one has any idea what, or even if, the ACL injury has done to his game. I'm going to keep harping on this, because you seem content to avoid it.

  Don't just harp on it, make it into an actual point worth addressing. Show me that point guards who have suffered knee injuries (say CP or Rose or Westbrook) have seen drastic reductions in their value around the league. Point to the fact that players who have been injured (CP, Howard, Bynum and Bogut) never bring back assets when traded. Bowl me over with evidence that most GMs in the league feel that Rondo will never recover from his knee injury. *Then* I'll address it.

[Celtics4ever]

Don't just harp on it, make it into an actual point worth addressing. Show me that point guards who have suffered knee injuries (say CP or Rose or Westbrook) have seen drastic reductions in their value around the league. Point to the fact that players who have been injured (CP, Howard, Bynum and Bogut) never bring back assets when traded. Bowl me over with evidence that most GMs in the league feel that Rondo will never recover from his knee injury. *Then* I'll address it.

It's an assumption, they can't and won't at least not one in the last 10 years.   

[D.o.s.]

Don't just harp on it, make it into an actual point worth addressing. Show me that point guards who have suffered knee injuries (say CP or Rose or Westbrook) have seen drastic reductions in their value around the league. Point to the fact that players who have been injured (CP, Howard, Bynum and Bogut) never bring back assets when traded. Bowl me over with evidence that most GMs in the league feel that Rondo will never recover from his knee injury. *Then* I'll address it.

It's an assumption, they can't and won't at least not one in the last 10 years.

Guards with knee injuries + subsequent diminished trade value/worth on the open market:
Gilbert Arenas is a good example.
Brandon Roy is another one.
Verdict's still out on Baron Davis, I suppose?

Bigs injured without bringing back assets:
Greg Oden's the first one that comes to mind, but the legwork is fairly easy to do, so I'll let you research the rest instead of arbitrarily saying "ten years" and thinking that it hasn't happened since about Penny Hardaway.


Tim, looks like we're at immovable odds here. My contention is that an injured player on a larger contract is probably worth less around the league than a high draft pick. I have no idea how you can disagree with that, so we can agree to disagree there, I suppose, but I still think you're nuts for thinking otherwise (and vice versa, I assume).

[BballTim]

Tim, looks like we're at immovable odds here. My contention is that an injured player on a larger contract is probably worth less around the league than a high draft pick. I have no idea how you can disagree with that, so we can agree to disagree there, I suppose, but I still think you're nuts for thinking otherwise (and vice versa, I assume).

   Hopefully I am nuts, if so we could just fill our gaping hole at shooting guard by trading our highly valued 2014 unprotected draft pick for Derrick Rose. He'd look great in the backcourt next to Rondo. Obviously he isn't worth as much as the draft pick so Chicago would have to take back salary or send us protected picks along with Rose but I'm confident that Danny could close the deal. Would Humphries and Bogans match his salary?

[D.o.s.]

Tim, looks like we're at immovable odds here. My contention is that an injured player on a larger contract is probably worth less around the league than a high draft pick. I have no idea how you can disagree with that, so we can agree to disagree there, I suppose, but I still think you're nuts for thinking otherwise (and vice versa, I assume).

   Hopefully I am nuts, if so we could just fill our gaping hole at shooting guard by trading our highly valued 2014 unprotected draft pick for Arron Afflalo. He'd look great in the backcourt next to Rondo.

Sorry, but no matter how you spin it, Rondo's not on the same level of Derrick Rose. Nor are most draft picks before the lottery is determined. Or even after.

By level, I mean that no one is going to trade Rose for Rondo, or Rose for a draft pick at this point. It's a complete non-starter.

Being hyperbolic doesn't suit you. I've adjusted your example down to something that might be more reasonable, given your disinclination towards thinking highly of the draft pick as an asset.

[D.o.s.]

Now, since we've basically established that Afflalo is too low and Rose is too high...

Lee + Bass for Eric Gordon checks out in the trade machine. You don't think New Orleans goes for our first rounder, Lee + Bass for Eric Gordon?

Oh, no, that's jumping a step too far. Forget the Pelicans, Danny Ainge would never do that. He doesn't have any history of turning his draft picks into talented shooting guards with a history of leg injuries.

[BballTim]

Tim, looks like we're at immovable odds here. My contention is that an injured player on a larger contract is probably worth less around the league than a high draft pick. I have no idea how you can disagree with that, so we can agree to disagree there, I suppose, but I still think you're nuts for thinking otherwise (and vice versa, I assume).

   Hopefully I am nuts, if so we could just fill our gaping hole at shooting guard by trading our highly valued 2014 unprotected draft pick for Arron Afflalo. He'd look great in the backcourt next to Rondo.

Sorry, but no matter how you spin it, Rondo's not on the same level of Derrick Rose. Nor are most draft picks before the lottery is determined. Or even after.

By level, I mean that no one is going to trade Rose for Rondo, or Rose for a draft pick at this point. It's a complete non-starter.

Being hyperbolic doesn't suit you. I've adjusted your example down to something that might be more reasonable, given your disinclination towards thinking highly of the draft pick as an asset.

  Your claim wasn't about Rondo in particular, it was about injured players on large contracts being less valuable than draft picks. I suppose that you could try and explain that Rose isn't coming off of an injury or that he doesn't have a large contract...

  But the hyperbole was meant to illustrate how ridiculous many of the arguments against Rondo sound when you apply them to pretty much any other top player in the league. You also illustrated the point with your claim that Rondo's not on the level of a Derrick Rose.

  Exactly what level is that? Rose is coming back from an injury that was, by all accounts I've heard, much worse than Rondo's. You keep harping on the fact that we don't have any idea what type of player Rondo will be when he comes back from his injury. Chalk that up to another argument that applies to Rondo and not to other top players....

   By the way, I was thinking that if Chicago balks on the trade you could just explain to their GM that Rose is fast approaching the end of his prime and he should get something in return for him while he still can.