How good will Sully and Olynyk be at their prime?

[D.o.s.]

I agree with the Davis comp for Sullinger, while giving him the edge in passing & rebounding.

Olynyk looks like a decent stretch four. Probably the 3rd big off the bench if you had a good team.

[danglertx]

A lot of people won't get this comparison but I'd put Olynyk as a taller Detlef Schrempf with maybe some better post skills.

Detlef was always call the poor man's Bird but he actually had more of a straight jumper and more athletic skill set where Bird was more of a scorer than just a shooter.

You don't mention the things the Schrempf was better at. Are you saying KO is better?

I'd say they might be equivalent players.  Obviously prime years Schrempf is better than rookie KO.  I really haven't seen enough of KO to say for sure his ball handling will be as good or his 3pt shot but they definitely can be.  I wouldn't be surprised at all if their career stats are very similar.

"they definitely can be"? Based on what? The idea that anything is possible?

Maybe Bass one day will shoot 3's like Schrempf. It is possible.

I have a few pet peeves on player comparisons. One is saying "a poor man's". That is saying nothing. It is saying essentially "I think these guys have similar styles, but I am unwilling to make any statement about whether one of them will have any success". When asking about how good someone will be, style tells us little. How successful will they be at that style?

What is particularly silly about "a poor man's" is that it doesn't tell us if the player is 90% of the comparison player or 10%. Even worse, the comparisons tend to be based more on a single skill and on appearance (esp race) instead of based on all-around game. How many unathletic white shooters who can't pass, are defensive liabilities, and don't have much of a post game get called at one point a "poor man's Bird" just because of the smooth jumper, lack of hops, position, and skin color. Are you overweight? Poor man's Barkley. Even though you can't leave the lane while Barkley could do everything on the court.

Another pet peeve of mine is comparing a rookie who hasn't proven that he can do anything effectively in the NBA to an all-star caliber player 'but with a better X'. Uh, what about all the stuff that the all-star caliber player is better at? Nevermind that the rookie hasn't shown any reason for us to expect that they will ever be great at even that one skill in the NBA, but why compare to other players if you can't evaluate more than one skill of that other player.

I think Avery Bradley is a poor man's Michael Jordan, but with better ball pressure skills. 

I would say he definitely can be based on his Jazz workout where he had the second highest three point makes out of their history of running that workout.  I think he hit 63 or 65 out of 100.  The guy can stroke it. 

Does that mean he will develop and show it in the NBA?  No, but it think it means he has the chance.  At 7ft, he should be able to get clean looks.

[Celtics18]

I completely disagree with the majority opinion that seems to have Kelly Olynyk pegged as primarily a "stretch four."  Yes, he has the ability to make some shots from deep, but I think that what gives the kid a high ceiling is the fact that he can do so much more than shoot the basketball.  Right now, it doesn't even look like shooting the ball from the perimeter is the best part of his game.  He can post up a little bit, he can face up and make small dribble moves to get a shot, he's a good passer, he can roll or pop off the pick, he's an opportunistic offensive rebounder, he runs the floor, and is a good finisher in transition.  He also seems to have good hands, good awareness on defense, and a natural ability to read the game of basketball. 

To me, Kelly's versatility is what gives him the potential to be a good player in the league.  If he gets pigeon holed into the role of a stretch four, and used more or less exclusively as a guy who spots up from deep, then I don't think he'll end up being a very good player.

On the other hand, if he and Stevens and Rondo can figure out how to develop him into the well-rounded big that he looks like he has the skills to become, then I see a very bright future. 

[CFAN38]

As for Sully, I am really saddened to see how fat he still is. Thinner, stronger and meaner should be his game yet he has come back slower, fatter and shooting more three pointers like some stretch 5. That's not his game. I think he could be very good, long term but he needs to lose that weight and get his game together.

You do realize he is coming off back surgery right? He spent most of the off season off of his feet and unable to workout. Given that fact and the fact that he is a big framed guy, of coarse he gained weight.

 

[D.o.s.]

I completely disagree with the majority opinion that seems to have Kelly Olynyk pegged as primarily a "stretch four."  Yes, he has the ability to make some shots from deep, but I think that what gives the kid a high ceiling is the fact that he can do so much more than shoot the basketball.  Right now, it doesn't even look like shooting the ball from the perimeter is the best part of his game.  He can post up a little bit, he can face up and make small dribble moves to get a shot, he's a good passer, he can roll or pop off the pick, he's an opportunistic offensive rebounder, he runs the floor, and is a good finisher in transition.  He also seems to have good hands, good awareness on defense, and a natural ability to read the game of basketball. 

To me, Kelly's versatility is what gives him the potential to be a good player in the league.  If he gets pigeon holed into the role of a stretch four, and used more or less exclusively as a guy who spots up from deep, then I don't think he'll end up being a very good player.

On the other hand, if he and Stevens and Rondo can figure out how to develop him into the well-rounded big that he looks like he has the skills to become, then I see a very bright future.

I agree that his deep shooting isn't the strongest aspect of his game, but I do think that his range and his passing are going to keep him in the league for at least one more contract.

[moiso]

As for Sully, I am really saddened to see how fat he still is. Thinner, stronger and meaner should be his game yet he has come back slower, fatter and shooting more three pointers like some stretch 5. That's not his game. I think he could be very good, long term but he needs to lose that weight and get his game together.

You do realize he is coming off back surgery right? He spent most of the off season off of his feet and unable to workout. Given that fact and the fact that he is a big framed guy, of coarse he gained weight.

Has he gotten thinner since training camp?  That's the more important question.

[Jon Niednagel]

Coming to this late, and didn't read ahead. Sorry if this is irrelevant now, or someone made a similar comparison already. I think if they reach their potential, then Sully = Elton Brand and Olynyk = Raef LaFrentz. Elton and Raef lost a lot of their luster later in their careers, mostly from being overpaid, injuries, and being old. In their prime, however, both were really skilled and important players in the league.

[D.o.s.]

Which Elton Brand? Are we talking Duke, Bulls Clippers vintage or  76ers Dallas Hawks?

I think that's being a little too high on Sullinger if it's the former--EB averaged a 20/10 and was rookie of the year in his first season.

I can see the comp if you're talking about after he ruptured his Achilles, though.

edit: I checked out the numbers on EB and JS for their rookie campaigns. Not totally dissimilar, though I'm not sure I'd want Sully taking 15 shots a game:
http://bkref.com/tiny/bi6Cg

[Jon Niednagel]

It is probably a stretch with the EB comparison, but IF he reaches his full potential and is in the right situation, then I could see him as a pre-injury EB type of player. Of course, I can see him becoming Big Baby 2.0 too.

[Snakehead]

I like David West for Sullinger and for Olynyk... I'd still wait and see on him.  I really want to see how he does for a stretch, but I really love his game and think it could develop very well... he reminds me of Vlade Divac in a lot of ways.

[Snakehead]

I completely disagree with the majority opinion that seems to have Kelly Olynyk pegged as primarily a "stretch four."  Yes, he has the ability to make some shots from deep, but I think that what gives the kid a high ceiling is the fact that he can do so much more than shoot the basketball.  Right now, it doesn't even look like shooting the ball from the perimeter is the best part of his game.  He can post up a little bit, he can face up and make small dribble moves to get a shot, he's a good passer, he can roll or pop off the pick, he's an opportunistic offensive rebounder, he runs the floor, and is a good finisher in transition.  He also seems to have good hands, good awareness on defense, and a natural ability to read the game of basketball. 

TP for this post, I totally agree.  Like I said, he reminds me of Divac in a lot of ways.  His passing is elite level for a big, he has to be using that to the fullest.

[kozlodoev]

As for Sully, I am really saddened to see how fat he still is. Thinner, stronger and meaner should be his game yet he has come back slower, fatter and shooting more three pointers like some stretch 5. That's not his game. I think he could be very good, long term but he needs to lose that weight and get his game together.

You do realize he is coming off back surgery right? He spent most of the off season off of his feet and unable to workout. Given that fact and the fact that he is a big framed guy, of coarse he gained weight.

Gronk had 5 surgeries and looks like he didn't gain a pound.

[mmmmm]

I completely disagree with the majority opinion that seems to have Kelly Olynyk pegged as primarily a "stretch four."  Yes, he has the ability to make some shots from deep, but I think that what gives the kid a high ceiling is the fact that he can do so much more than shoot the basketball.  Right now, it doesn't even look like shooting the ball from the perimeter is the best part of his game.  He can post up a little bit, he can face up and make small dribble moves to get a shot, he's a good passer, he can roll or pop off the pick, he's an opportunistic offensive rebounder, he runs the floor, and is a good finisher in transition.  He also seems to have good hands, good awareness on defense, and a natural ability to read the game of basketball. 

To me, Kelly's versatility is what gives him the potential to be a good player in the league.  If he gets pigeon holed into the role of a stretch four, and used more or less exclusively as a guy who spots up from deep, then I don't think he'll end up being a very good player.

On the other hand, if he and Stevens and Rondo can figure out how to develop him into the well-rounded big that he looks like he has the skills to become, then I see a very bright future.

Being a 'stretch 4' isn't just about sitting outside at 20 feet and playing catch-and-shoot.   
A 'stretch 4' who only has that skill can be defended by putting a big on him.  Yes, that stretches out the paint defense - but it does effectively defend him, taking him out of the offensive options.  This kind of 'stretch 4' is pretty much limited in value to that of 'role player'.  He's valuable - but only in the context of other scoring options who can take advantage of the space he helps create.

What makes for a more complete 'stretch 4' who is harder to defend - guys like KG & Bosh - is simply the ability to start his offense from outside.    I think that this is what makes Olynyk intriguing.  He has the handle to put the ball on the floor without looking like an immediate turnover about to happen.  He's even shown he can drive through traffic with his left hand.  This is extremely rare for a big man, let alone a 7 footer.

So this potentially - assuming he shows skill progression such that his skills prove good enough for the NBA - makes him a very difficult matchup problem.   If you bring a tall-but-slow big out to take away his jump shot, he can put the ball on the floor and go around him.  If you try to defend him with a quicker but smaller defender, he can shoot over him.

Olynyk is young and hasn't yet played a regular season NBA game.   There is no guarantee that his skills will translate.   But if they do - even if it takes a little time - he could be a very special offensive player.

[mmmmm]

As for Sully, I am really saddened to see how fat he still is. Thinner, stronger and meaner should be his game yet he has come back slower, fatter and shooting more three pointers like some stretch 5. That's not his game. I think he could be very good, long term but he needs to lose that weight and get his game together.

You do realize he is coming off back surgery right? He spent most of the off season off of his feet and unable to workout. Given that fact and the fact that he is a big framed guy, of coarse he gained weight.

Gronk had 5 surgeries and looks like he didn't gain a pound.

A useful comparison, because ... they are so very much alike ...   

[CelticG1]

As for Sully, I am really saddened to see how fat he still is. Thinner, stronger and meaner should be his game yet he has come back slower, fatter and shooting more three pointers like some stretch 5. That's not his game. I think he could be very good, long term but he needs to lose that weight and get his game together.

You do realize he is coming off back surgery right? He spent most of the off season off of his feet and unable to workout. Given that fact and the fact that he is a big framed guy, of coarse he gained weight.

Gronk had 5 surgeries and looks like he didn't gain a pound.

A useful comparison, because ... they are so very much alike ...   

Yeha I don't get the comparison either

Also reports said that gronk lost a bunch of weight because he couldnt work out and bulk up which is funny