Poll

Which option would you prefer for the 2013-14 Celtics?

Finish with one of the worst five records in the league.
30 (53.6%)
Make the playoffs as a seventh or eighth seed.
26 (46.4%)

Total Members Voted: 55

Author Topic: To Tank or Not To Tank, That is the Question  (Read 66226 times)

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Re: To Tank or Not To Tank, That is the Question
« Reply #75 on: September 16, 2013, 07:22:34 PM »

Offline LarBrd33

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Landing a top 5 pick might not work out.  The idea behind it though is that you give yourself a shot at a superstar and a shot at contending.

If my choices were:

Option 1:
2014:  41 wins - first round exit
2015:  42 wins - first round exit
2016:  37 wins - late lotto
2017:  42 wins - 2nd round exit
2018:  35 wins - late lotto
... followed by a decade of perpetual mediocrity

vs...

Option 2:
2014:  12 wins - top 5 pick
2015:  25 wins - top 5 pick
2016:  28 wins - top 10 pick
2017:  52 wins - 2nd round exit
2018:  63 wins - ECF
... followed by a decade of contending

I happily go for option 2. I don't mind suffering through a few miserable seasons if it gives us a shot of being a long-term contender. 

Good news is, this team is going to be complete crap this year.  We're well on our way to having a Top 5 pick.

This is a perfect example of the worst kind of argument. 

1.  Creating two biased hypothetical scenarios that has no basis in reality in order to deceive the audience into making a decision.   

2.  In the first situation where the team makes the playoffs, why would the team get worse over the next five years? 
- The young guys will not improve?  (Historically refuted)
- Danny is going to draft 9 first round busts over that span?  (Historically refuted)
- NO top free agents are going to want to join a young, up-and-coming playoff team with an all star? (West - Indiana, Howard - Houston, Lebron, Bosh - Miami, Williams - Brooklyn, Boozer - Chicago, Paul - Clippers have all recently refuted this)

The second scenario is laughable.  Two top 5 picks and one top 10 pick is going to make your lottery team a 52 win team and second round exit?  Charlotte, Cleveland, Wizards, Toronto, Detroit have had how many lottery picks over the last three seasons?  How many of them are projected to be a 52 win team?  (Historically refuted as utter nonsense)
Aint I a stinkah?  I'm the worst.  Lol.

We had 4 straight 35-45 win seasons under the mediocre leadership of 'Toine and Pierce. 

It wasn't until Ainge ripped it apart that we were able to bottom out (24 wins) and turn our team into an immediate champion.

If my options are going through another boring 4 year 35-45 win era under the leadership of Rondo and Jeff Green... or tank for a shot at a dynasty... I go with option 2 every time.

The obvious argument against that is "yeah, but we tanked in 97 and didn't land Duncan"...

So?

What was the alternative?  You either go for broke and take your shot at a superstar... or putter around as also-rans.  For everyone bemoaning our failed attempt to tank in 97, I'd love to see what you would have done as an alternative to turn the team into a champion.  Trade for Michael Jordan?  Sign Shaq as a free agent?  My guess is, knowing what we know now, there isn't anyone would have passed up a chance on those ping pong balls.  Duncan or bust.  It was the only move to make. 

2014 doesn't sound like a 1 person draft, though.  This sounds more like the 2003 draft than 97.  If you could lock up a top 5 pick in 2003... you'd lock up 80% chance at landing a young allstar building block stuck on his rookie deal.  No brainer for a rebuilding team.  These kind of players only come around every 5-10 years... you take your shot at landing them.

I, for one, am excited about our upcoming 12 win season.
« Last Edit: September 16, 2013, 07:28:25 PM by LarBrd33 »

Re: To Tank or Not To Tank, That is the Question
« Reply #76 on: September 16, 2013, 07:36:06 PM »

Offline Celtics18

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Landing a top 5 pick might not work out.  The idea behind it though is that you give yourself a shot at a superstar and a shot at contending.

If my choices were:

Option 1:
2014:  41 wins - first round exit
2015:  42 wins - first round exit
2016:  37 wins - late lotto
2017:  42 wins - 2nd round exit
2018:  35 wins - late lotto
... followed by a decade of perpetual mediocrity

vs...

Option 2:
2014:  12 wins - top 5 pick
2015:  25 wins - top 5 pick
2016:  28 wins - top 10 pick
2017:  52 wins - 2nd round exit
2018:  63 wins - ECF
... followed by a decade of contending

I happily go for option 2. I don't mind suffering through a few miserable seasons if it gives us a shot of being a long-term contender. 

Good news is, this team is going to be complete crap this year.  We're well on our way to having a Top 5 pick.

This is a perfect example of the worst kind of argument. 

1.  Creating two biased hypothetical scenarios that has no basis in reality in order to deceive the audience into making a decision.   

2.  In the first situation where the team makes the playoffs, why would the team get worse over the next five years? 
- The young guys will not improve?  (Historically refuted)
- Danny is going to draft 9 first round busts over that span?  (Historically refuted)
- NO top free agents are going to want to join a young, up-and-coming playoff team with an all star? (West - Indiana, Howard - Houston, Lebron, Bosh - Miami, Williams - Brooklyn, Boozer - Chicago, Paul - Clippers have all recently refuted this)

The second scenario is laughable.  Two top 5 picks and one top 10 pick is going to make your lottery team a 52 win team and second round exit?  Charlotte, Cleveland, Wizards, Toronto, Detroit have had how many lottery picks over the last three seasons?  How many of them are projected to be a 52 win team?  (Historically refuted as utter nonsense)
Aint I a stinkah?  I'm the worst.  Lol.

We had 4 straight 35-45 win seasons under the mediocre leadership of 'Toine and Pierce. 

It wasn't until Ainge ripped it apart that we were able to bottom out (24 wins) and turn our team into an immediate champion.

If my options are going through another boring 4 year 35-45 win era under the leadership of Rondo and Jeff Green... or tank for a shot at a dynasty... I go with option 2 every time.

The obvious argument against that is "yeah, but we tanked in 97 and didn't land Duncan"...

So?

What was the alternative?  You either go for broke and take your shot at a superstar... or putter around as also-rans.  For everyone bemoaning our failed attempt to tank in 97, I'd love to see what you would have done as an alternative to turn the team into a champion.  Trade for Michael Jordan?  Sign Shaq as a free agent?  My guess is, knowing what we know now, there isn't anyone would have passed up a chance on those ping pong balls.  Duncan or bust.  It was the only move to make. 

2014 doesn't sound like a 1 person draft, though.  This sounds more like the 2003 draft than 97.  If you could lock up a top 5 pick in 2003... you'd lock up 80% chance at landing a young allstar building block stuck on his rookie deal.  No brainer for a rebuilding team.  These kind of players only come around every 5-10 years... you take your shot at landing them.

I, for one, am excited about our upcoming 12 win season.

I would love some clarification on that last paragraph.  It's a bit confusing.  Are you saying that you think there are five players in the 2014 draft of the type of franchise player that only comes around every 5 to 10 years?

I'm sure 2014 will be a very good draft, but this is an example of the kind of over-hype about this draft that is going to be close to impossible to live up to. 

Edit:

I see what you are saying.   You think this is the 2003 draft all over again.  So, there's going to be one Lebron level player (Wiggins), one Wade level player (Parker?), and one each of a Bosh and Anthony level player out of the rest of them. 

Possible, I guess, but I don't think it's very likely, even if it is an exceptional draft. 

My hope is that seeing as the draft is supposed to be very talented at the top, but also very deep, that Ainge finds a gem at the 15 or 16 spot.  We make the playoffs, and still get a great young player, the best of both worlds. 
« Last Edit: September 16, 2013, 08:04:01 PM by Celtics18 »
DKC Seventy-Sixers:

PG: G. Hill/D. Schroder
SG: C. Lee/B. Hield/T. Luwawu
SF:  Giannis/J. Lamb/M. Kuzminskas
PF:  E. Ilyasova/J. Jerebko/R. Christmas
C:    N. Vucevic/K. Olynyk/E. Davis/C. Jefferson

Re: To Tank or Not To Tank, That is the Question
« Reply #77 on: September 16, 2013, 08:03:11 PM »

Offline fantankerous

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Landing a top 5 pick might not work out.  The idea behind it though is that you give yourself a shot at a superstar and a shot at contending.

If my choices were:

Option 1:
2014:  41 wins - first round exit
2015:  42 wins - first round exit
2016:  37 wins - late lotto
2017:  42 wins - 2nd round exit
2018:  35 wins - late lotto
... followed by a decade of perpetual mediocrity

vs...

Option 2:
2014:  12 wins - top 5 pick
2015:  25 wins - top 5 pick
2016:  28 wins - top 10 pick
2017:  52 wins - 2nd round exit
2018:  63 wins - ECF
... followed by a decade of contending

I happily go for option 2. I don't mind suffering through a few miserable seasons if it gives us a shot of being a long-term contender. 

Good news is, this team is going to be complete crap this year.  We're well on our way to having a Top 5 pick.

This is a perfect example of the worst kind of argument. 

1.  Creating two biased hypothetical scenarios that has no basis in reality in order to deceive the audience into making a decision.   

2.  In the first situation where the team makes the playoffs, why would the team get worse over the next five years? 
- The young guys will not improve?  (Historically refuted)
- Danny is going to draft 9 first round busts over that span?  (Historically refuted)
- NO top free agents are going to want to join a young, up-and-coming playoff team with an all star? (West - Indiana, Howard - Houston, Lebron, Bosh - Miami, Williams - Brooklyn, Boozer - Chicago, Paul - Clippers have all recently refuted this)

The second scenario is laughable.  Two top 5 picks and one top 10 pick is going to make your lottery team a 52 win team and second round exit?  Charlotte, Cleveland, Wizards, Toronto, Detroit have had how many lottery picks over the last three seasons?  How many of them are projected to be a 52 win team?  (Historically refuted as utter nonsense)
Aint I a stinkah?  I'm the worst.  Lol.

We had 4 straight 35-45 win seasons under the mediocre leadership of 'Toine and Pierce. 

It wasn't until Ainge ripped it apart that we were able to bottom out (24 wins) and turn our team into an immediate champion.

If my options are going through another boring 4 year 35-45 win era under the leadership of Rondo and Jeff Green... or tank for a shot at a dynasty... I go with option 2 every time.

The obvious argument against that is "yeah, but we tanked in 97 and didn't land Duncan"...

So?

What was the alternative?  You either go for broke and take your shot at a superstar... or putter around as also-rans.  For everyone bemoaning our failed attempt to tank in 97, I'd love to see what you would have done as an alternative to turn the team into a champion.  Trade for Michael Jordan?  Sign Shaq as a free agent?  My guess is, knowing what we know now, there isn't anyone would have passed up a chance on those ping pong balls.  Duncan or bust.  It was the only move to make. 

2014 doesn't sound like a 1 person draft, though.  This sounds more like the 2003 draft than 97.  If you could lock up a top 5 pick in 2003... you'd lock up 80% chance at landing a young allstar building block stuck on his rookie deal.  No brainer for a rebuilding team.  These kind of players only come around every 5-10 years... you take your shot at landing them.

I, for one, am excited about our upcoming 12 win season.

I would love some clarification on that last paragraph.  It's a bit confusing.  Are you saying that you think there are five players in the 2014 draft of the type of franchise player that only comes around every 5 to 10 years?

I'm sure 2014 will be a very good draft, but this is an example of the kind of over-hype about this draft that is going to be close to impossible to live up to.

How much clearer could he possible be?  "a young allstar building block stuck on his rookie deal"  Where do you get "the type of franchise player that only comes around every 5 to 10 years" from that?

Seems like someone's fishing for a straw man.

Re: To Tank or Not To Tank, That is the Question
« Reply #78 on: September 16, 2013, 08:05:51 PM »

Offline Celtics18

  • Ed Macauley
  • ***********
  • Posts: 11688
  • Tommy Points: 1469
Landing a top 5 pick might not work out.  The idea behind it though is that you give yourself a shot at a superstar and a shot at contending.

If my choices were:

Option 1:
2014:  41 wins - first round exit
2015:  42 wins - first round exit
2016:  37 wins - late lotto
2017:  42 wins - 2nd round exit
2018:  35 wins - late lotto
... followed by a decade of perpetual mediocrity

vs...

Option 2:
2014:  12 wins - top 5 pick
2015:  25 wins - top 5 pick
2016:  28 wins - top 10 pick
2017:  52 wins - 2nd round exit
2018:  63 wins - ECF
... followed by a decade of contending

I happily go for option 2. I don't mind suffering through a few miserable seasons if it gives us a shot of being a long-term contender. 

Good news is, this team is going to be complete crap this year.  We're well on our way to having a Top 5 pick.

This is a perfect example of the worst kind of argument. 

1.  Creating two biased hypothetical scenarios that has no basis in reality in order to deceive the audience into making a decision.   

2.  In the first situation where the team makes the playoffs, why would the team get worse over the next five years? 
- The young guys will not improve?  (Historically refuted)
- Danny is going to draft 9 first round busts over that span?  (Historically refuted)
- NO top free agents are going to want to join a young, up-and-coming playoff team with an all star? (West - Indiana, Howard - Houston, Lebron, Bosh - Miami, Williams - Brooklyn, Boozer - Chicago, Paul - Clippers have all recently refuted this)

The second scenario is laughable.  Two top 5 picks and one top 10 pick is going to make your lottery team a 52 win team and second round exit?  Charlotte, Cleveland, Wizards, Toronto, Detroit have had how many lottery picks over the last three seasons?  How many of them are projected to be a 52 win team?  (Historically refuted as utter nonsense)
Aint I a stinkah?  I'm the worst.  Lol.

We had 4 straight 35-45 win seasons under the mediocre leadership of 'Toine and Pierce. 

It wasn't until Ainge ripped it apart that we were able to bottom out (24 wins) and turn our team into an immediate champion.

If my options are going through another boring 4 year 35-45 win era under the leadership of Rondo and Jeff Green... or tank for a shot at a dynasty... I go with option 2 every time.

The obvious argument against that is "yeah, but we tanked in 97 and didn't land Duncan"...

So?

What was the alternative?  You either go for broke and take your shot at a superstar... or putter around as also-rans.  For everyone bemoaning our failed attempt to tank in 97, I'd love to see what you would have done as an alternative to turn the team into a champion.  Trade for Michael Jordan?  Sign Shaq as a free agent?  My guess is, knowing what we know now, there isn't anyone would have passed up a chance on those ping pong balls.  Duncan or bust.  It was the only move to make. 

2014 doesn't sound like a 1 person draft, though.  This sounds more like the 2003 draft than 97.  If you could lock up a top 5 pick in 2003... you'd lock up 80% chance at landing a young allstar building block stuck on his rookie deal.  No brainer for a rebuilding team. These kind of players only come around every 5-10 years... you take your shot at landing them.

I, for one, am excited about our upcoming 12 win season.

I would love some clarification on that last paragraph.  It's a bit confusing.  Are you saying that you think there are five players in the 2014 draft of the type of franchise player that only comes around every 5 to 10 years?

I'm sure 2014 will be a very good draft, but this is an example of the kind of over-hype about this draft that is going to be close to impossible to live up to.

How much clearer could he possible be?  "a young allstar building block stuck on his rookie deal"  Where do you get "the type of franchise player that only comes around every 5 to 10 years" from that?

Seems like someone's fishing for a straw man.

From the bolded part above. 
DKC Seventy-Sixers:

PG: G. Hill/D. Schroder
SG: C. Lee/B. Hield/T. Luwawu
SF:  Giannis/J. Lamb/M. Kuzminskas
PF:  E. Ilyasova/J. Jerebko/R. Christmas
C:    N. Vucevic/K. Olynyk/E. Davis/C. Jefferson

Re: To Tank or Not To Tank, That is the Question
« Reply #79 on: September 16, 2013, 08:10:36 PM »

Offline SHAQATTACK

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Give me a slow comfortable tank....

A trip to lotto land without a lot of fan fair

Reboot the C's

back to playoffs



Re: To Tank or Not To Tank, That is the Question
« Reply #80 on: September 16, 2013, 08:23:15 PM »

Offline PhoSita

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Tank for a year or two, trade away players who don't fit the long term vision for more future pieces, restock the cupboard with 2-3 nice lottery pick talents, then develop or otherwise use those assets to build a nice playoff team 3-4 years down the road.
You’ll have to excuse my lengthiness—the reason I dread writing letters is because I am so apt to get to slinging wisdom & forget to let up. Thus much precious time is lost.
- Mark Twain

Re: To Tank or Not To Tank, That is the Question
« Reply #81 on: September 16, 2013, 08:39:22 PM »

Offline Yogi

  • Don Chaney
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Aint I a stinkah?  I'm the worst.  Lol.

We had 4 straight 35-45 win seasons under the mediocre leadership of 'Toine and Pierce. 

It wasn't until Ainge ripped it apart that we were able to bottom out (24 wins) and turn our team into an immediate champion.

If my options are going through another boring 4 year 35-45 win era under the leadership of Rondo and Jeff Green... or tank for a shot at a dynasty... I go with option 2 every time.

The obvious argument against that is "yeah, but we tanked in 97 and didn't land Duncan"...

So?

What was the alternative?  You either go for broke and take your shot at a superstar... or putter around as also-rans.  For everyone bemoaning our failed attempt to tank in 97, I'd love to see what you would have done as an alternative to turn the team into a champion.  Trade for Michael Jordan?  Sign Shaq as a free agent?  My guess is, knowing what we know now, there isn't anyone would have passed up a chance on those ping pong balls.  Duncan or bust.  It was the only move to make. 

2014 doesn't sound like a 1 person draft, though.  This sounds more like the 2003 draft than 97.  If you could lock up a top 5 pick in 2003... you'd lock up 80% chance at landing a young allstar building block stuck on his rookie deal.  No brainer for a rebuilding team.  These kind of players only come around every 5-10 years... you take your shot at landing them.

I, for one, am excited about our upcoming 12 win season.

It is one thing if you want to tank because you are excited by the small chance of finding a franchise talent through the draft.  I have no problem with this.  There are many ways of building a team.

If you are going to argue that tanking is the BEST way to build a team, then I expect some sound argument backed up with facts. 

First acknowledge the great risks that come with tanking.
 
1.  It is difficult to even land a top 5 pick.  We have to compete with Phoneix, Sacramento, Charlotte, Utah, Orlando, Philadelphia, Milwaukee and borderline playoff teams with old or injury prone stars like Timberwolves (Love, Pekovic, Rubio,) Lakers (Nash, Gasol, Kobe,) Mavericks (Dirk, Marion, Carter, Calderon) or Cleveland (Irving, Varejao, Bynum)

2.  It is very difficult to find a franchise talent through the draft.  Even if you consider only the top 5 picks, there is usually 1-2 busts, 2-3 average to above average players, and maybe 1-2 franchise talent.

3.  What is your contingency plan if you don't get a franchise talent and you are left with a team that has just been taught how to lose?  Do you know how difficult it is to climb out of the cesspool that is the lottery?  It would take a top 10 player of all time to pull a lottery team into the playoffs by themselves.  Guys like Wall and Cousins while extremely talented could not take their teams to the playoffs by themselves. 

Oklahoma city is the exception to building through the draft.  They landed a franchise talent in Durant, and cornerstones like Westbrook, Ibaka and Harden.  To replicate that is almost impossible.  And if they didn't land Westbrook or Harden, Durant could have left in free agency. 

You know why people make a big deal about KG changing the culture?  You want to know why guys like Perkins, Tony Allen, Derek Fisher are valued by teams for more than their basketball skills?  They turned their respective franchises into contenders by bringing the winners mentality. 

Losing creates losers.  You don't want to teach young kids it is OK to lose.  Luckily we have a crop of young players who were "spoiled" by winning.  If we want to become a contender we have to add fuel to that fire and not extinguish it. 

There is absolutely no reason to be afraid of the future. 

1.  We have one of the best drafting GM's in the league with 9 first round picks in the next 5 years.

2.  We have a proven core of young guys who will continue to improve over the next 5 years in Bradley, Brooks, Sullinger, Olynyk.  Pressey, Crawford, Greene, Faverani and Iverson are also young enough to take steps forward over the next few years. 

3.  We don't have any crippling contracts.  Wallace is the only one that is limiting, but if guys like Joe Johnson, Rashard Lewis and Bargnani were moved recently, it is not inconceivable someone will take a chance on Wallace. 

However good we are this year, we will keep improving.  We only have two players in their 30's, Bogans and Wallace.  Neither of them are crucial to our future. 
CelticsBlog DKC Pelicans
J. Lin/I. Canaan/N. Wolters
E. Gordon/A. Shved
N. Batum/A. Roberson
A. Davis/K. Olynyk/M. Scott
D. Cousins/A. Baynes/V. Faverani
Rights: A. Abrines, R. Neto, L. Jean-Charles  Coach: M. Williams

Re: To Tank or Not To Tank, That is the Question
« Reply #82 on: September 16, 2013, 10:41:23 PM »

Offline PhoSita

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It is one thing if you want to tank because you are excited by the small chance of finding a franchise talent through the draft.  I have no problem with this.  There are many ways of building a team.

If you are going to argue that tanking is the BEST way to build a team, then I expect some sound argument backed up with facts. 



I don't want to presume to speak for Larry here, but this is an argument that has raged between pro-tankers and anti-tankers all summer long, and I think that there's a basic misconception -- or, perhaps, a half-purposeful misunderstanding -- that is at work.


When people advocate for tanking as an avenue for a rebuild, I usually take the meaning of "rebuild" in that context to be a desire to build a truly elite team.

"Elite" meaning perennially winning 55-60 games, challenging for a top 5 record in the league, with a realistic shot at winning a championship.  What's more, I think the implication is usually that such a "rebuild" would mean not one season like that, or even a handful, but ideally an extended period of being one of the best teams in the league (i.e. a "dynasty").

By looking at the state of the NBA now and in the past, we can see that building a team that competes at that level for that period of time requires you to have multiple superstar talents, at least one of which is a top 5-10 talent, a player who can stake a claim to the MVP trophy each and every season in which they are healthy enough to compete for the majority of 82 games.  It is simply not enough to have a handful of secondary All-Stars.


My feeling is that those who are "anti-tank" are usually not necessarily talking about this kind of scenario when they protest, vociferously, that there is no evidence that tanking is the best way to rebuild. 

Often, such arguments will refer to the fact that many, many teams toil through losing season after losing season and yet do not come up with a franchise superstar, and never reach that holy mountaintop of contention.  Those teams instead just suck, endlessly.


Here's my point:

Is tanking the best way to rebuild?  It depends on what the ultimate goal of your rebuild is. 



Is tanking the most reliable way to build your franchise back to respectability?

By "respectability" I mean that your team is relevant and reasonably enjoyable to watch during the regular season, the playoffs are pretty much guaranteed, and your team has a shot at winning at least one playoff series.

My answer is that no, all-out tanking is not the best way to do that. 

To get to respectability, I think you can take a more measured approach, without ever completely bottoming out.  If you just make smart moves via trade and free agency and draft well in the mid to late lottery, you'll have a really good chance at building a respectable team with a competitive core that will last you for a number of years. 

Moreover, bridging the gap between one era of respectability and another shouldn't take more than a handful of years if you play your cards right, barring really bad luck.  If your franchise is located in a major city, as opposed to a small market, your job is even easier.


Building a "dynasty," though?  Actually winning a championship, and especially multiple championships?

That is exceptionally difficult to do without having high lottery picks at your disposal -- however you choose to use them.  The only sure way to get high lottery picks is to be terrible for at least one or two seasons.

The best chance you have at building a truly elite team as defined above is to lose a lot of games.

For the historical proof of this assertion, consult any of the myriad of posts made by "pro-tankers" who list all of the championship teams of the past 30 years or so (what we might call the Modern Era of the NBA), noting the methods that those teams used to acquire their best players.

Nevertheless, the difficulty with setting as your primary goal the construction of a "dynasty" is that your odds aren't great. Even relatively well-run teams have stumbled through years and years of mediocrity and inconsistency in the hunt for that Hall of Fame talent.  The nature of the lottery is that it's a crap shoot.  You can be the smartest guy in the room, but the odds are still awful. 

Not every team that lands that historic combo of superstars even wins a championship.  The true greats of the game have left dozens of not-quite-as-great teams in the wake of their decades of dominance.



Personally, I'm of the opinion that "respectability" is too low a goal, but "dynasty" is hoping for a bit too much. 

It's easy to get caught up in pining only for championship glory.  I get trapped in that frequently.  Like every other Celtics fan, I've been spoiled the past few years.

After the team spends a while in the purgatory of "player development," which inevitably brings with it tons of "player turnover" and not much you can really safely invest yourself in, I think simply having a stable, competitive team to root for will seem like a lot.

In any case, I think we should all expect that Danny will do everything he can to guide the team back to being truly competitive, not merely respectable -- hopefully for an extended period of time.  But even a 3 year window, as was originally expected with the Big 3, would be exciting and fun.  If we end up with a dynasty, then that's just our fantastic luck.

Nevertheless, I do think that the best and quickest way for Danny to restock the team with elite talent is to give him some high lottery picks to work with. 
« Last Edit: September 16, 2013, 11:09:52 PM by PhoSita »
You’ll have to excuse my lengthiness—the reason I dread writing letters is because I am so apt to get to slinging wisdom & forget to let up. Thus much precious time is lost.
- Mark Twain

Re: To Tank or Not To Tank, That is the Question
« Reply #83 on: September 16, 2013, 11:02:56 PM »

Offline D.o.s.

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Landing a top 5 pick might not work out.  The idea behind it though is that you give yourself a shot at a superstar and a shot at contending.

If my choices were:

Option 1:
2014:  41 wins - first round exit
2015:  42 wins - first round exit
2016:  37 wins - late lotto
2017:  42 wins - 2nd round exit
2018:  35 wins - late lotto
... followed by a decade of perpetual mediocrity

vs...

Option 2:
2014:  12 wins - top 5 pick
2015:  25 wins - top 5 pick
2016:  28 wins - top 10 pick
2017:  52 wins - 2nd round exit
2018:  63 wins - ECF
... followed by a decade of contending

I happily go for option 2. I don't mind suffering through a few miserable seasons if it gives us a shot of being a long-term contender. 

Good news is, this team is going to be complete crap this year.  We're well on our way to having a Top 5 pick.

Are our top players going to come exclusively from those three lottery picks, or are we making other moves to get top players in your fictional story?

i'm guessing he meant either way. if we trade Jeff Green+Wallace+2015 top5 pick on a draft night trade for a player like Aldridge or Love, and we already have Rondo and a guy like Wiggins (who blossoms into an allstar by his 2nd or 3rd year), then i'd say we have a good chance.

a lot of things have to go right in building contender in the same way that a lot of things have to go wrong to be a perpetually mediocre team as well.

A guy like Wiggins?  I wonder who those guys are.  Parker, Randle, Exum, Andrew Harrison . . . ?   There seems to be a fantasy floating around that there are 5 or 6 players like that in the up-coming draft.  Of course, it's not impossible, but I'd be very surprised if this where the case. 

I think it still remains to be seen if Andrew Wiggins will, in fact, turn out to be "a guy like Wiggins," never mind the rest of them.

NBA Scouting has gotten a whole lot better in the last several years.

If you look at the top 5 players from 2003-2010 each draft (and, of course, each draft has varying potency) has shown progressively fewer terrible decisions and evaluations by management when drafting, with a couple of exceptions (I'm cutting it off at 2010 to give us a few NBA seasons for each player to evaluate).

2003--the gold standard for draft class top 5's.

5. Dwyane Wade (won a championship three years later, top 3 SG of the last ten years)
4. Chris Bosh (20-10 as a first option, excellent stretch 5 3rd option on a championship team)
3. Carmelo Anthony (one of the best scorers in the game, has single handedly brought every one of his teams into the playoffs every year he's been in the league)
2. Darko Milicic (great on paper, awful in real life. Reasons behind the draft choice has been covered by everyone and their mother).
1. LeBron James (disappeared, no one ever hears anything about this guy ever.)


2004:
5.Devin Harris--played all right for a while. One-time All Star, before a series of injuries derailed his career.
4.Shaun Livingston--Who? Well, it was a Clipper's pick.
3.Ben Gordon--Never an all-star, but the only NBA player to win Sixth Man of The Year as a rookie, when he averaged 15/2/1 in 22 minutes a game.
2. Emeka Okafor--Decent defensive Center, NBA GM's love size.
1. Dwight Howard--known for his loyalty and serious nature.


5.Raymond Felton--plays well on the Knicks, and basically nowhere else.
4.Chris Paul--Often cited as the best PG in the league.
3.Deron Williams--was option 1A to best PG in the league before he got Jerry Sloan fired and Sloan stole all of D-Will's motivation, Leprechaun style.
2. Marvin Williams--Servicable Wing, terrible GM decision.
1. Andrew Bogut--freak injury history, great defensive center. Hilarious accent when exhausted.

2006:
5. Shelden Williams--the Hawks management was batting the opposite of 1,000 here.
4.Tyrus Thomas--The trailblazers drafted him 4th, but ended up trading him and another forward for Aldridge.
3. Adam Morrison--Mustaches are bad for basketball.
2. LaMarcus Aldrige--20-10 guy, perennial should-be All-Star.
1. Andrea Bargiani--HAHAHAHHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAH

2006 players that would later go on to succeed:

Brandon Roy (#6)
Rudy Gay (#8)
J.J. Reddick (#11)
Rajon Rondo (#21)
Kyle Lowry (#24)
Leon Powe (#49)

2007
5. Jeff Green--traded to Seattle for Ray Allen.
4.Mike Conley Jr.--solid starting PG, great hands on defense.
3.Al Horford--another perennial should-be All Star.
2.Kevin Durant--who?
1.Greg Oden--biggest issue on draft night was the possibility of reinjuring his broken hand. Destroys both knees in response.

2008
5. Kevin Love
4. Russell Westbrook
3. O.J. Mayo
2. Michael Beasley
1. Derrick Rose

2009
5. Ricky Rubio
4. Tyreke Evans
3. James Harden
2. Hasheem Thabeet (GM's love size.)
1. Blake Griffin

2010
5. DeMarcus Cousins
4. Wesley Johnson
3. Derrick Favors
2. Evan Turner
1. John Wall

  I don't know that the improvement you're looking for is significant enough to call anything other than noise.

Maybe, but egregious swings-and-misses are far less common than they were even ten years ago, owing to a lot more due diligence from the smarter front offices.

David Kahn's no longer a GM. The guy in Toronto is out. The Sixers have a new GM. The Grizzlies have an entirely new team at the top.

We know way more about draftees now than we did ten years ago. We have a smart front office. My belief is that the odds that the Celtics will make a solid draft pick if they're in the top eight are much higher than them having a winning season this year.
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Re: To Tank or Not To Tank, That is the Question
« Reply #84 on: September 17, 2013, 12:11:51 AM »

Offline Yogi

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PhoSita, I disagree that people who want to tank and people who do not have different goals.  I think everyone would like to have a contender.  A team with a good chance of winning a title over a number of years. 

There are two strategies for building a contender:

1. Draft, Develop, Deal
2. Clear Cap space and add Free Agents


Every team employs one or both of these strategies in building a contender. 

Let's look at the Spurs who have been 50+ winning team for a decade and a half straight.  They are the best example of the strategy 1.

They are one of the best drafting teams.  They have one of the best player development.  They do not trade a lot, but make smart trades based on those development. 

Draft George Hill with 28th pick.  Develop George Hill, trade him for Kawhi Leonard.

They don't rely on cap space to sign big time free agents.

Attractive free agent destinations can clear cap space and sign star free agents.

Lakers are the prime example.  This is why they confidentially traded away most of their draft picks and cleared their books for the end of this season. 

Lakers, like Miami, are hoping to sign two of Lebron/Melo/Bosh and company with their cap space and instantly become a contender. 

Every other team in the league fall somewhere in this spectrum. 
- Most teams do not attract the free agents that LA does, so they have to rely more on draft, develop, deal. 
- Other teams are not good at drafting, developing and dealing so they have to overpay for Al Jefferson, Josh Smith, Brandon Jennings etc.

Boston is not a first class free agent destination, so they have to rely more on draft, develop, deal. 

Like George Hill and Kawhi Leonard, Boston drafted and developed Kendrick Perkins with a late first round pick and traded him for lottery pick Jeff Green.

Tanking is simply a bad strategy 

In any given year, if lucky, there is one franchise player.  In an extremely good year there are two.  But most years have 14 teams in the lottery.  Only one or two out of 14 teams walk away with a franchise player or even a good building block.  So on a rare year with two franchise players you have a 14.3% chance of landing him if you are in the lottery.  The chance of you landing an outright bust is probably greater than the chance of landing a franchise talent. 

The Celtics have excellent drafting, good player development, and they make good deals.  Danny turned 21st pick, 19th pick, 21st pick and 16th pick into Rondo, Bradley, Sullinger and Olynyk.  He drafted Kendrick Perkins with the 27th pick and turned him into Jeff Green. Turned JaJuan Johnson into Courtney Lee.  Glen Davis into Brandon Bass.  And with moves like that he gave us a contender for the last 5 years. 

Now he gets to start the process over again by turning Doc Rivers, Kevin Garnett, Paul Pierce, and Jason Terry into 4 first round picks, Marshon Brooks, 17M in expiring, a 10M trade exception and 31 year old Gerald Wallace. 

We have a clear plan on how to keep improving the team.  There is absolutely no reason to try and lose as many games as possible just to get a shot at trying to land a franchise player.  The organization has proven it's ability to build a contender by drafting, developing and dealing like the Spurs.
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Re: To Tank or Not To Tank, That is the Question
« Reply #85 on: September 17, 2013, 12:18:19 AM »

Offline LooseCannon

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While I don't want to tank, I can see how it makes sense under certain circumstances, but I don't see why the team has to commit to tanking vs not tanking before the season even starts.
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Re: To Tank or Not To Tank, That is the Question
« Reply #86 on: September 17, 2013, 12:37:31 AM »

Offline indeedproceed

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I think this strong willed celtics team will surprise a lot of people. The young kids especially I think will surprise a lot of people. Give Phil, Bradley, Sully, Jeff all the minutes they can handle. I also think that Rondo shouldn't rush back, we've got all the spine we need. Play Kris Humphries, Crash as much as you can (as long as its not at the expense of the young guys), and when Rondo comes back, tell him you want him to average 20 points per game, and work his jumper, even if there are some growing pains. Just work through it, play hard, and don't give up.

So yes, Im great with tanking.

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Re: To Tank or Not To Tank, That is the Question
« Reply #87 on: September 17, 2013, 01:50:44 AM »

Offline Galeto

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I'm all for tanking because it's not like it's the players are going to be throwing games. I have no doubt players like Bradley and company are going to bust it game after game.  It's not immoral to root for losses in an entertainment setting. 

The Celtics never gave a complete rebuild a chance after losing the Duncan lottery. Billups was dispatched too soon.  Before the new big three era, they never paired Pierce with a high draft pick. It was always a mismatch of fading veterans like Kenny Anderson and Gary Payton and knuckleheads like Ricky Davis and Mark Blount.  When they hit on the draft, like they did with Joe Johnson, they traded him away in his rookie season!  They should've had an opportunity to draft Andre Miller or Shawn Marion in 1999 but no, Pitino had given that pick away for the inaptly named Ukraine Train Vitaly Potapenko.  Time passed quickly and suddenly Pierce was 30.  The best players he had played with was what, an aged Gary Payton, Antoine Walker and Ricky Davis?  It was a freaking shame. 

Whether the tank job works out or not, I'm all for seeing the organization try to build from the ground up so a group of similar aged players can grow together.  They've never had this stockpile of picks before.  Even if the Brooklyn picks are low in the draft, those can be where role players come from.  It's exciting to think that a potential franchise player or franchise players can be selected high in the draft and be complemented by cheap, young role players. That things can be approached with a championship goal from the outset instead of being okay with mediocrity or worse year after year.

Re: To Tank or Not To Tank, That is the Question
« Reply #88 on: September 17, 2013, 02:05:09 AM »

Offline D.o.s.

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Speaking of Ricky Davis, he's apparently at the Knicks training camp.


Because of course he is.
At least a goldfish with a Lincoln Log on its back goin' across your floor to your sock drawer has a miraculous connotation to it.

Re: To Tank or Not To Tank, That is the Question
« Reply #89 on: September 17, 2013, 06:00:19 AM »

Offline PhoSita

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There are two strategies for building a contender:

1. Draft, Develop, Deal
2. Clear Cap space and add Free Agents


Every team employs one or both of these strategies in building a contender. 

Let's look at the Spurs who have been 50+ winning team for a decade and a half straight.  They are the best example of the strategy 1.

They are one of the best drafting teams.  They have one of the best player development.  They do not trade a lot, but make smart trades based on those development. 

Draft George Hill with 28th pick.  Develop George Hill, trade him for Kawhi Leonard.

Well, okay.  George Hill, Kawhi Leonard, Tiago Splitter -- all really nice young complementary players that the Spurs have added to bolster their supporting cast in recent years.

Still, the Spurs aren't contending if not for Tim Duncan, a #1 pick that they got because they hardcore tanked for one season.

Quote

Attractive free agent destinations can clear cap space and sign star free agents.

Lakers are the prime example.  This is why they confidently traded away most of their draft picks and cleared their books for the end of this season. 

Lakers, like Miami, are hoping to sign two of Lebron/Melo/Bosh and company with their cap space and instantly become a contender. 

Every other team in the league fall somewhere in this spectrum. 
- Most teams do not attract the free agents that LA does, so they have to rely more on draft, develop, deal. 
- Other teams are not good at drafting, developing and dealing so they have to overpay for Al Jefferson, Josh Smith, Brandon Jennings etc.

Boston is not a first class free agent destination, so they have to rely more on draft, develop, deal. 

Like George Hill and Kawhi Leonard, Boston drafted and developed Kendrick Perkins with a late first round pick and traded him for lottery pick Jeff Green.

Okay, sure, but Jeff Green is hardly a franchise cornerstone.



Quote

Tanking is simply a bad strategy 

In any given year, if lucky, there is one franchise player.  In an extremely good year there are two.  But most years have 14 teams in the lottery.  Only one or two out of 14 teams walk away with a franchise player or even a good building block.  So on a rare year with two franchise players you have a 14.3% chance of landing him if you are in the lottery.  The chance of you landing an outright bust is probably greater than the chance of landing a franchise talent. 

Absolutely.  That's why I say that the odds are not good.  They stink.  But they're still better odds than trying to land that kind of player in free agency, or hoping that you can trade for that kind of player using only a pupu platter of nice young role players, mid-1st round picks, and perhaps a second tier star in his mid to late 20s.

Best case scenario, an older star in the latter part of his prime becomes available for that kind of deal, but even then you're much more likely to pull off that deal if you can include a nice pick / lottery talent.


Quote
The Celtics have excellent drafting, good player development, and they make good deals.  Danny turned 21st pick, 19th pick, 21st pick and 16th pick into Rondo, Bradley, Sullinger and Olynyk.  He drafted Kendrick Perkins with the 27th pick and turned him into Jeff Green. Turned JaJuan Johnson into Courtney Lee.  Glen Davis into Brandon Bass.  And with moves like that he gave us a contender for the last 5 years. 


All of that sounds like a nice argument for a "building back to respectability" strategy.

Unless you really think that you can turn a core group of players like Rondo, Bradley, Green, Sullinger, Olynyk, Lee, and Bass into a contender.  I don't -- not even if I am as optimistic as possible about the Celtics' ability to attract key free agents to join our young group.

Part of how Danny "gave us a contender for the last 5 years" was that his team tanked in '06-'07, giving him a top 5 pick that he was able to turn into Ray Allen, paving the way for Kevin Garnett to join Ray and Paul in Boston.
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