To Tank or Not To Tank, That is the Question

[fantankerous]

The problem with tanking is that, from what I can see, we have a viable playoff team to field.

3-guard rotation:  Rondo, Bradley, Lee/Bogans (best of)

3-forward rotation:  Green, Wallace, Bass/Sully (best of)

Formerly Center Position:  Humphries, Brazilian Guy/Olynyk (best of)


It just doesn't look like a team that shouldn't win enough games to stay out of the top of the lottery, and I don't think the difference between possibly picking, say, 7th or 8th instead of, say, 12th is worth making not going all all-out to win worthwhile.

I mean, 1-4, we're pretty good.  And we have solid guard and forward backups, and perhaps go 4 deep with rotation guys at both guard and forward.  That should be a playoff team, even if the center position isn't that strong.

That roster will be lucky to win 25 games.

[Yogi]

The problem with tanking is that, from what I can see, we have a viable playoff team to field.

3-guard rotation:  Rondo, Bradley, Lee/Bogans (best of)

3-forward rotation:  Green, Wallace, Bass/Sully (best of)

Formerly Center Position:  Humphries, Brazilian Guy/Olynyk (best of)


It just doesn't look like a team that shouldn't win enough games to stay out of the top of the lottery, and I don't think the difference between possibly picking, say, 7th or 8th instead of, say, 12th is worth making not going all all-out to win worthwhile.

I mean, 1-4, we're pretty good.  And we have solid guard and forward backups, and perhaps go 4 deep with rotation guys at both guard and forward.  That should be a playoff team, even if the center position isn't that strong.

That roster will be lucky to win 25 games.

The Milwaukee Bucks won 38 games last season.  The 2013 Celtics are way more talented than that team. 

[chambers]

How'd the Bulls get their star player? Howd the Thunder get their star player? How'd Miami get Wade? How'd the Spurs get Duncan? How
did the Celtics get Ray Allen?

You're missing the importance of using that pick as a trade assett for an established star. Tanking doesn't mean tanking just to draft a hopeful star, it means gaining the pick as an asset to get a guy like Ray Allen or Aldridge or Love. What exactly do we have at the moment that the Blazers or Wolves would give up for their big studs? Avery Bradley? A few last first round picks? The higher that pick, the better it's trade value.

Here's a good read on the importance of needing multiple superstar players and the how those players have been acquired over the history of the NBA.

Get edumacated guys....read every single part and do the math.

http://basketball.realgm.com/article/229431

1.  The point is we already have a star player.  We don't need to tank. 

2.  Why would an established star like Love or Aldridge, who are sick of losing, sign an extension with another lottery team?

3.  That article is not helpful in this discussion.  Of course the best players in any sport win more championship.  Who would disagree with that? 

What is being discussed is if it is necessary to tank to get the best players.  This is not the case.  Memphis, Indiana and Houston have built contenders without a single top 5 lottery pick.  They did so because Dwight Howard and David West wanted to join a playoff team, not because they had a top lottery pick.

1)Our star player maybe sneaks into the top 20 players in the league. Coming off injury who knows where he'll be. Unfortunately because of his flaws, it's probable that he'll never be a top 10 player.

2)Why would they come here? Why did Shaq go to Miami to join Dwayne Wade? We can still keep Rondo and strategically tank.
Which team is more appealing to Kevin Love and LaMarcus Aldridge-

*An 8th seed team that goes out in the first round of the playoffs, who, with the 16th pick drafts a solid prospect at 2 guard. This 2 guard might evolve into a starter one day but the odds are against him. The following season that 'star' Rajon Rondo is up for free agency and can walk away from this rebuilding situation and we are forced to trade him for scraps.

*a bottom 5 team with an established 'star' like Rondo- that's lucky enough to land a top 5 pick, and gets one of the better talents in that draft? So now they have Rondo and *(insert 2014 potential superstar here)*. Rondo has more reason to stay. Free agents have more reason to see the potential,

If those particular players of 'superstar' potential appear to be off the table or no longer available once it's our turn to draft, then we use this pick as a trade asset to acquire another star- in order to entice other free agents to the Celtics. JUST LIKE what Danny had to do to get KG to come here.
 Only months earlier KG said he'd NEVER play for Boston. So Danny realized that he had two options that hopefully get closer to that Championship.
1) Draft Oden or Durant (superstar potential players at the top of that draft)
2) Get another All Star 'star' player to entice KG to come to Boston.

Without that Jeff Green pick we don't get Kevin Garnett. If we'd made the playoffs that season what on earth would we have given the Sonics for Ray Allen?

3) You didn't real all parts as I suggested you should, because that exact point is dealt with...here is the particular part regarding superstars and the NBA draft.

http://basketball.realgm.com/article/229564/What-The-Superstar-Theory-Means-For-NBA-GMs-Section-B

So what exactly have Indiana and Houston done?
You realize that Memphis got Mike Conley with the number 4 pick right?
Indiana got lucky enough to draft a player who's 7 foot 2 and took FIVE YEARS to develop into one of the best big men in the NBA.
How many cases are there like Gasol and Hibbert on Memphis and Indiana getting a diamond in the rough franchise big man for scraps or a pick higher than 15? Wallace on the Pistons is one example...who else?

Was the Houston Dwight Howard lottery a great example of how to win an NBA championship? What championship have they won? They were lucky enough to get their hands on Howard ahead of X amount of teams. They were lucky enough to get James Harden and then have James Harden become a top tier star player.
What requires more luck? The lottery or Houston's recent acquisitions?

Again, if you want an NBA championship you need a franchise level player. How do we acquire one? How are the majority of franchise players acquired? Via the draft.

"... it means 41 of these 66 superstars were picked in the top-3. If the odds of getting a superstar are long in the top three picks of the draft—exactly 22 of the 120 top-3 NBA draft picks between 1971-2010 have gone on to make platinum-gold-silver superstar status—they barely exist as one goes deeper into the first round. Note that several of those No. 1 picks between 4-14 were either in superstar heavy years like 1984 and 2003, or were high school picks like Garnett, Bryant and Amar’e Stoudemire. But since 2006, drafting guys direct from high school has ended and it is far harder to steal a great talent after a player has spent one season in college basketball. Had any of those three guys played a year in college, where do you think they would have gone in the subsequent draft? Almost certainly first or second overall."

[lightspeed5]

The problem with tanking is that, from what I can see, we have a viable playoff team to field.

3-guard rotation:  Rondo, Bradley, Lee/Bogans (best of)

3-forward rotation:  Green, Wallace, Bass/Sully (best of)

Formerly Center Position:  Humphries, Brazilian Guy/Olynyk (best of)


It just doesn't look like a team that shouldn't win enough games to stay out of the top of the lottery, and I don't think the difference between possibly picking, say, 7th or 8th instead of, say, 12th is worth making not going all all-out to win worthwhile.

I mean, 1-4, we're pretty good.  And we have solid guard and forward backups, and perhaps go 4 deep with rotation guys at both guard and forward.  That should be a playoff team, even if the center position isn't that strong.

That roster will be lucky to win 25 games.

exactly. with rondo out, its going to look not so good too. we're gonna have pressey, an undrafted college kid playing the majority of pg minutes

[chambers]

The problem with tanking is that, from what I can see, we have a viable playoff team to field.

3-guard rotation:  Rondo, Bradley, Lee/Bogans (best of)

3-forward rotation:  Green, Wallace, Bass/Sully (best of)

Formerly Center Position:  Humphries, Brazilian Guy/Olynyk (best of)


It just doesn't look like a team that shouldn't win enough games to stay out of the top of the lottery, and I don't think the difference between possibly picking, say, 7th or 8th instead of, say, 12th is worth making not going all all-out to win worthwhile.

I mean, 1-4, we're pretty good.  And we have solid guard and forward backups, and perhaps go 4 deep with rotation guys at both guard and forward.  That should be a playoff team, even if the center position isn't that strong.

That roster will be lucky to win 25 games.

The Milwaukee Bucks won 38 games last season.  The 2013 Celtics are way more talented than that team.

No we don't. They had Ilyasova and Sanders, they also had Ellis, Jennings, Tobias Harris- who they traded for JJ Reddick.
Their bench was better than ours.

Lets use your argument shall we, and say that...

The 2013 Celtics won 41 games. This years team is WAY worse than that team. We don't have any shooters. We don't have any defensive bigs. We have a rookie coach, multiple rookie players and new players on this team. Our best player is a bench All Star coming off an injury and we don't know when he'll return.

What's so hard to understand here?
It's okay if you want to avoid throwing games but you must be realistic at the path needed to become a 'contender' or the next tier up of NBA finals team.

You want guys like Love or Aldridge yet you're not willing to sacrifice anything to get them. You can't get a guy like Aldridge from the Blazers with the assets we have- there are other teams out there with better assets. A top 5 pick puts us at the forefront of those teams in search of that other All Star.

What's so hard to understand about this?

[Yogi]

1)Our star player maybe sneaks into the top 20 players in the league. Coming off injury who knows where he'll be. Unfortunately because of his flaws, it's probable that he'll never be a top 10 player.

2)Why would they come here? Why did Shaq go to Miami to join Dwayne Wade? We can still keep Rondo and strategically tank.
Which team is more appealing to Kevin Love and LaMarcus Aldridge-

*An 8th seed team that goes out in the first round of the playoffs, who, with the 16th pick drafts a solid prospect at 2 guard. This 2 guard might evolve into a starter one day but the odds are against him. The following season that 'star' Rajon Rondo is up for free agency and can walk away from this rebuilding situation and we are forced to trade him for scraps.

*a bottom 5 team with an established 'star' like Rondo- that's lucky enough to land a top 5 pick, and gets one of the better talents in that draft? So now they have Rondo and *(insert 2014 potential superstar here)*. Rondo has more reason to stay. Free agents have more reason to see the potential,

If those particular players of 'superstar' potential appear to be off the table or no longer available once it's our turn to draft, then we use this pick as a trade asset to acquire another star- in order to entice other free agents to the Celtics. JUST LIKE what Danny had to do to get KG to come here.
 Only months earlier KG said he'd NEVER play for Boston. So Danny realized that he had two options that hopefully get closer to that Championship.
1) Draft Oden or Durant (superstar potential players at the top of that draft)
2) Get another All Star 'star' player to entice KG to come to Boston.

Without that Jeff Green pick we don't get Kevin Garnett. If we'd made the playoffs that season what on earth would we have given the Sonics for Ray Allen?

3) You didn't real all parts as I suggested you should, because that exact point is dealt with...here is the particular part regarding superstars and the NBA draft.

http://basketball.realgm.com/article/229564/What-The-Superstar-Theory-Means-For-NBA-GMs-Section-B

So what exactly have Indiana and Houston done?
You realize that Memphis got Mike Conley with the number 4 pick right?
Indiana got lucky enough to draft a player who's 7 foot 2 and took FIVE YEARS to develop into one of the best big men in the NBA.
How many cases are there like Gasol and Hibbert on Memphis and Indiana getting a diamond in the rough franchise big man for scraps or a pick higher than 15? Wallace on the Pistons is one example...who else?

Was the Houston Dwight Howard lottery a great example of how to win an NBA championship? What championship have they won? They were lucky enough to get their hands on Howard ahead of X amount of teams. They were lucky enough to get James Harden and then have James Harden become a top tier star player.
What requires more luck? The lottery or Houston's recent acquisitions?

Again, if you want an NBA championship you need a franchise level player. How do we acquire one? How are the majority of franchise players acquired? Via the draft.

"... it means 41 of these 66 superstars were picked in the top-3. If the odds of getting a superstar are long in the top three picks of the draft—exactly 22 of the 120 top-3 NBA draft picks between 1971-2010 have gone on to make platinum-gold-silver superstar status—they barely exist as one goes deeper into the first round. Note that several of those No. 1 picks between 4-14 were either in superstar heavy years like 1984 and 2003, or were high school picks like Garnett, Bryant and Amar’e Stoudemire. But since 2006, drafting guys direct from high school has ended and it is far harder to steal a great talent after a player has spent one season in college basketball. Had any of those three guys played a year in college, where do you think they would have gone in the subsequent draft? Almost certainly first or second overall."

1.  That is your opinion.  During the playoffs when championships are won, Rondo has been a top 5 player since 2009. 

2.  You answered your own question.  He went to join Dwayne Wade and win a championship.  He didn't go there because they had a lottery pick.  Aldridge and Love have openly stated they want to be in the playoffs.  If they had a choice between a lottery team and a playoff team there is no doubt where they would go. 

* Is this the part where we create a false choice by presenting two biased scenarios while not really making a point?

* When there are no stars left, why do you think other teams will trade us their stars for our pick?  Maybe we can land another player on the wrong side of 30 coming off surgery like Ray Allen.  Unfortunately a 2008 Kevin Garnett doesn't even exist let alone available for the type of package we sent last time. 

Yes clearly we need a top 5 pick to land a player of Conley's abilities.  Oh well, I guess we'll have to settle for a 21st pick bum like Rondo.  Jeff Green is a top 5 pick too, by the way. 

The fact is Memphis and Indiana drafted and developed non franchise type players into great players.  That is what the Celtics are doing with guys like Rondo, Sullinger, Olynyk and Bradley. 

Yes, Houston (really the Celtics in 2008) is probably the best example of how to build a contender.  That is the quickest a playoff team was torn down and turned into a contender since the Celtics did it in 2008. 

How many top 5 picks have lead the team that drafted him to a championship recently?  Howard?  Lebron?  Paul?  Anthony?  Williams?  All those guys are playing for different teams.  Wade is the only example that fits that description making it an exception rather than the rule. 

There was no luck in what Houston did.  They collected assets, built a young playoff team which attracted a super star.  Lottery is always luck, hence the name. 

As for your quote, how many of those top 3 superstars led the team that drafted them to a title?  In fact most of them left their teams to join another team to win their titles.  So the best way to get a superstar who will get you a title is not to draft them, but to let a bad team draft them and steal them in free agency/trade like Shaq, Lebron, KG, Billups etc..  Drafting superstars lets you become the Orlando Magic, Cleveland Cavaliers (Lebron), New Orleans Hornets (Paul) or the Denver Nuggets (Anthony), Utah Jazz (Williams).  And this is if you are lucky enough to avoid becoming the Bobcats, Kings, Wizards etc.  How fantastic!

[Yogi]

No we don't. They had Ilyasova and Sanders, they also had Ellis, Jennings, Tobias Harris- who they traded for JJ Reddick.
Their bench was  better than ours.

Lets use your argument shall we and say:
The 2013 Celtics won 41 games. This years team is WAY worse than that team. We don't have any shooters. We don't have any defensive bigs. We have a rookie coach, multiple rookie players and new players on this team. Our best player is a bench All Star coming off an injury and we don't know when he'll return.

Yes, I do agree with your logic actually.
[/quote]

1.  Rondo, Bradley, Green and Sullinger are at least as good and probably much better as Jennings, Ellis, Ilyasova (was just awful last season) and Sanders. 

2.  Their bench was better than ours?  This must be a joke.  Lee, Bogans, Wallace, Bass/Olynyk and Humphries against Reddick, Dunleavy, M'bah Moute, Udoh, Dalembert?  Again this is at the very least a wash, but really our bench is much better. 

3.  Yes the team where Rondo, Bradley, Barbosa and Sullinger missed half a season, and Jeff Green and Chris Wilcox were coming back from heart surgery won 41 games.  If that tells you anything, it is how weak the eastern conference is. 

[chambers]

1)Our star player maybe sneaks into the top 20 players in the league. Coming off injury who knows where he'll be. Unfortunately because of his flaws, it's probable that he'll never be a top 10 player.

2)Why would they come here? Why did Shaq go to Miami to join Dwayne Wade? We can still keep Rondo and strategically tank.
Which team is more appealing to Kevin Love and LaMarcus Aldridge-

*An 8th seed team that goes out in the first round of the playoffs, who, with the 16th pick drafts a solid prospect at 2 guard. This 2 guard might evolve into a starter one day but the odds are against him. The following season that 'star' Rajon Rondo is up for free agency and can walk away from this rebuilding situation and we are forced to trade him for scraps.

*a bottom 5 team with an established 'star' like Rondo- that's lucky enough to land a top 5 pick, and gets one of the better talents in that draft? So now they have Rondo and *(insert 2014 potential superstar here)*. Rondo has more reason to stay. Free agents have more reason to see the potential,

If those particular players of 'superstar' potential appear to be off the table or no longer available once it's our turn to draft, then we use this pick as a trade asset to acquire another star- in order to entice other free agents to the Celtics. JUST LIKE what Danny had to do to get KG to come here.
 Only months earlier KG said he'd NEVER play for Boston. So Danny realized that he had two options that hopefully get closer to that Championship.
1) Draft Oden or Durant (superstar potential players at the top of that draft)
2) Get another All Star 'star' player to entice KG to come to Boston.

Without that Jeff Green pick we don't get Kevin Garnett. If we'd made the playoffs that season what on earth would we have given the Sonics for Ray Allen?

3) You didn't real all parts as I suggested you should, because that exact point is dealt with...here is the particular part regarding superstars and the NBA draft.

http://basketball.realgm.com/article/229564/What-The-Superstar-Theory-Means-For-NBA-GMs-Section-B

So what exactly have Indiana and Houston done?
You realize that Memphis got Mike Conley with the number 4 pick right?
Indiana got lucky enough to draft a player who's 7 foot 2 and took FIVE YEARS to develop into one of the best big men in the NBA.
How many cases are there like Gasol and Hibbert on Memphis and Indiana getting a diamond in the rough franchise big man for scraps or a pick higher than 15? Wallace on the Pistons is one example...who else?

Was the Houston Dwight Howard lottery a great example of how to win an NBA championship? What championship have they won? They were lucky enough to get their hands on Howard ahead of X amount of teams. They were lucky enough to get James Harden and then have James Harden become a top tier star player.
What requires more luck? The lottery or Houston's recent acquisitions?

Again, if you want an NBA championship you need a franchise level player. How do we acquire one? How are the majority of franchise players acquired? Via the draft.

"... it means 41 of these 66 superstars were picked in the top-3. If the odds of getting a superstar are long in the top three picks of the draft—exactly 22 of the 120 top-3 NBA draft picks between 1971-2010 have gone on to make platinum-gold-silver superstar status—they barely exist as one goes deeper into the first round. Note that several of those No. 1 picks between 4-14 were either in superstar heavy years like 1984 and 2003, or were high school picks like Garnett, Bryant and Amar’e Stoudemire. But since 2006, drafting guys direct from high school has ended and it is far harder to steal a great talent after a player has spent one season in college basketball. Had any of those three guys played a year in college, where do you think they would have gone in the subsequent draft? Almost certainly first or second overall."

1.  That is your opinion.  During the playoffs when championships are won, Rondo has been a top 5 player since 2009. 

2.  You answered your own question.  He went to join Dwayne Wade and win a championship.  He didn't go there because they had a lottery pick.  Aldridge and Love have openly stated they want to be in the playoffs.  If they had a choice between a lottery team and a playoff team there is no doubt where they would go. 

* Is this the part where we create a false choice by presenting two biased scenarios while not really making a point?

* When there are no stars left, why do you think other teams will trade us their stars for our pick?  Maybe we can land another player on the wrong side of 30 coming off surgery like Ray Allen.  Unfortunately a 2008 Kevin Garnett doesn't even exist let alone available for the type of package we sent last time. 

Yes clearly we need a top 5 pick to land a player of Conley's abilities.  Oh well, I guess we'll have to settle for a 21st pick bum like Rondo.  Jeff Green is a top 5 pick too, by the way. 

The fact is Memphis and Indiana drafted and developed non franchise type players into great players.  That is what the Celtics are doing with guys like Rondo, Sullinger, Olynyk and Bradley. 

Yes, Houston (really the Celtics in 2008) is probably the best example of how to build a contender.  That is the quickest a playoff team was torn down and turned into a contender since the Celtics did it in 2008. 

How many top 5 picks have lead the team that drafted him to a championship recently?  Howard?  Lebron?  Paul?  Anthony?  Williams?  All those guys are playing for different teams.  Wade is the only example that fits that description making it an exception rather than the rule. 

There was no luck in what Houston did.  They collected assets, built a young playoff team which attracted a super star.  Lottery is always luck, hence the name. 

As for your quote, how many of those top 3 superstars led the team that drafted them to a title?  In fact most of them left their teams to join another team to win their titles.  So the best way to get a superstar who will get you a title is not to draft them, but to let a bad team draft them and steal them in free agency/trade like Shaq, Lebron, KG, Billups etc..  Drafting superstars lets you become the Orlando Magic, Cleveland Cavaliers (Lebron), New Orleans Hornets (Paul) or the Denver Nuggets (Anthony), Utah Jazz (Williams).  And this is if you are lucky enough to avoid becoming the Bobcats, Kings, Wizards etc.  How fantastic!

Ok lets go back 20 seasons and see which championship or NBA finals teams either drafted a top 10 player (or two) and then added another star or two...

Miami Heat:- Dwayne Wade +Added Lebron and Bosh

San Antonio:- draft Tim Duncan then drafted Tony Parker then drafted Ginobli.

Dallas:- Traded for Nowitzki on draft night

Boston:- drafted Pierce, added KG and then drafted Green for the Sonics to get Ray Allen.

Lakers:- Acquired Kobe Bryant on draft night when he refused to play for anyone but the Lakers. Added Shaq. Added Gasol.

OKC:- Drafted Durant. Then Drafted Russell Westbrook and James Harden. Did so well out of the draft they couldn't afford to keep Harden and are still a top tier NBA contender.

Orlando:- Drafted Howard. Added multiple players via free agency and ultimately management couldn't get the job done. Still made the NBA finals to only get beaten by another team that drafted it's own superstar- the Spurs and Tim Duncan. Despite being let down repeatedly by management, Howard stayed an extra season.

Cleveland:- similarly to Howard, Lebron is drafted by Cleveland and carries them to the playoffs of multiple occasions. Carries them to the NBA finals- can't beat Spurs. Management tries to bring in Shaq, tries to bring in role players but ultimately fails Lebron and can't get him the help he needs.

Utah Jazz:- Draft Stockton, Draft Malone the following year. Have to face the Bulls and one of the greatest teams of all time- not managements fault, not the players fault, just greatness over riding greatness.

Chicago Bulls:- Draft Michael Jordan, can't crack the Celtics yet. Acquire Scottie Pippen with trade swapping Bulls 8th pick for the Sonics 5th pick, who was Scottie Pippen. Also acquire Horace Grant in this draft with number 10 pick.
 
Seattle Supersonics:- Draft Shawn Kemp and draft Gary Payton the following year. Can't quite topple the Bulls in the finals and have an incredibly difficult task with Houston and Utah in their conference too.

Houston Rockets:- Draft Ralph Sampson, draft Oljauwon the following year with number 1 pick. (same year as Jordan going 3rd). Reach finals and lose to Celtics. Sampsons injury woes are troubling and he is traded. (eventually retires after only 5 season in the NBA).
Olajuwan- although one of, if not the best big man off all time- can't win a championship on his own. Rockets trade for Clyde Drexler. Go on to meet Orlando Magic with Penny and Shaq and defeat the Magic.

Orlando:- Draft Shaq. Get lucky and score the number one pick. Draft Chris Webber with this pick, yet trade him for Penny Hardaway (3rd pick in same draft).Acquire Horace Grant from Bulls.
Make NBA finals and lose to Rockets.
Shaq leaves for LA to join Kobe Bryant.

New Jersey:- Draft Kenyon Martin. Acquire Jason Kidd in a trade and then trade for Richard Jefferson.
Make it to the NBA finals two seasons straight, only to be destroyed by the superior Spurs and Lakers- with their 'franchise' level stars in Tim Duncan and David Robinson, and Kobe Bryant and Shaq.

Phildadelphia:-
Similarly to the Nets, the 76ers had an All Star point guard in Allen Iverson. History shows us that point guards struggle when leading teams to NBA championships. Iverson is drafted by the 76ers and literally carries the 76ers mediocre cast to the finals- similarly to Lebron and Dwight Howard in later years. His lone star power is simply not enough. His management can't quite get him the help he needs.


Summary:
Of all the teams to either make the finals, or win an NBA championship in the last 20 years, only 3 teams have not drafted one of their own superstar players. Only one of those three teams actually won a championship and the other two were severely outmatched by the teams that beat them.(the Suns in 1993 and the Nets in 2002 and 2003 vs the Lakers and Spurs).
Only the Pistons won without their own pick or draft day acquired selection.

Rajon Rondo is not a 'superstar'. The Celtics do not have a superstar. We need to either draft a superstar, or acquire one via a trade. Which is most likely? And how do we acquire one of these superstars via trade with our current assets, or via free agency?
If you can tell me a better way or more sure fire way of having the asset pool to get someone like Love, Aldridge or Carmelo Anothny then I'm all ears.
Fair enough if you don't want to tank, but what is your plan if we don't? What is your plan if we finish the 8th seed or 7th seed?
How do we then get one of those stars to join us? We likely won't have the trade assets. Rondo will have one season remaining on his contract.
How do we get the trade assets to ENSURE we are in the running for a star, either via the draft or via a trade?

Give us your thoughts- tell me the plan. I love this team just as much as you and vice versa. I don't want to throw games but I also don't want to be a perennial bum squad that dances around the 7th or 8th seed only to watch Rondo walk away in 2 seasons time.
We need to get him help somehow. Our current asset pool is not convincing enough for me to put us at the top of the free agent or trade market.
Sacrificing an extra 10 wins in what's likely to be a 30 win season at most to make sure we can get Rondo the help he needs is a bullet that you have to bite.
Otherwise Rondo just walks because we couldn't get him the help he needed.

[Celtics18]

Get edumacated guys....read every single part and do the math.


"... it means 41 of these 66 superstars were picked in the top-3. If the odds of getting a superstar are long in the top three picks of the draft—exactly 22 of the 120 top-3 NBA draft picks between 1971-2010 have gone on to make platinum-gold-silver superstar status—they barely exist as one goes deeper into the first round. Note that several of those No. 1 picks between 4-14 were either in superstar heavy years like 1984 and 2003, or were high school picks like Garnett, Bryant and Amar’e Stoudemire. But since 2006, drafting guys direct from high school has ended and it is far harder to steal a great talent after a player has spent one season in college basketball. Had any of those three guys played a year in college, where do you think they would have gone in the subsequent draft? Almost certainly first or second overall."

"On the other hand, trades play a much larger role because teams know in the new era of free agency it is better to trade a player before he hits the market and you may get nothing back in return. Denver did this with Carmelo Anthony, Utah with Deron Williams, New Orleans with Chris Paul, and Orlando with Dwight Howard.

What this means for an NBA GM is that free agency and trades associated with free agency are much more important than they used to be, and the draft is less important. That is where the great GMs put their energy: create cap space and accrue assets like No. 1 picks and promising young players to make deals for superstars possible when they present themselves. Just as important: make your team a place a superstar would want to hang his shingle. Often times that means already having a superstar or potential superstar in tow. The nature of the current system reinforces the Superstar Theory because the rich get richer."

Did you read every single part yourself before picking out the bit that most conveniently fits your theory that tanking is the only way to get back in contention?


"Superstar in tow":  Check.

"assets like No. 1 picks and promising young players":  Check.

"Make your team a place a superstar would want to hang his shingle":  Check (that is, if we don't start shamelessly tanking away the culture of winning that we've established over the course of the last six years). 

[Yogi]

Chambers, every point you make is opinion or speculation.

It is YOUR opinion how good Rondo is.  The numbers he has put up in the playoffs since 2009 are unquestionable superstar numbers.

There is no guarantee that tanking would lead to a player of Kobe, Duncan, Dirk, Lebron caliber.  That is pure speculation.  For every one of those guys there is a Milicic, Kwame, Beasley, Morrison. 

Kobe was drafted at the same position as Kelly Olynyk.  We clearly don't have to tank for that.

Drafting Dirk was not why the Mavs won the championship, just like drafting Pierce was not the reason the Celitcs won the championship.  There is a decade of team building before those championships happened. 

Duncan is a unique situation where a much better team who finished with a much better record won the lottery over many other teams tanking.  Do you remember what happened to the Celtics who tanked for Duncan and lost?

Wade is the only player who fits your fantasy of drafting a stud who leads you to a championship.  And guess what?  He needed two of the top 10 players of all time (Shaq and Lebron) to join him to make it happen.  Hardly a convincing sample. 

The plan is easy.  We have two pieces already in Rondo and Green.  We have a lot of young talented players who will keep improving in Bradley, Sullinger, Olynyk, Pressey, Iverson, Brooks.  We have tons of cap space and 9 first round picks in the next 5 years to add to the core.  We will have some cap space as Humphries, Bogans, Crawford expire next year and when Bass, Lee, Wallace are traded.  We have a large trade exception as well.  We are set up very well for our talent to grow and to add new talent in the future. 

[barefacedmonk]

Orlando:- Drafted Howard. Added multiple players via free agency and ultimately management couldn't get the job done. Still made the NBA finals to only get beaten by another team that drafted it's own superstar- the Spurs and Tim Duncan. Despite being let down repeatedly by management, Howard stayed an extra season.

Howard & Co. lost to the Lakers.

[Celtics18]

Close race, so far.

10 to 8 in favor of tanking.

I'd love to see some more votes to get a bigger sample size. 

I re-iterate,  FREE TPs FOR VOTERS!!!!!!  (I can't tell who voted just by looking at the poll, but if you post anything in this thread, you get TPs).             

Update:

Still a close race, but Not To Tank has taken a slim lead, now ahead by a score of 12 to 10. 

[More Banners]

The problem with tanking is that, from what I can see, we have a viable playoff team to field.

3-guard rotation:  Rondo, Bradley, Lee/Bogans (best of)

3-forward rotation:  Green, Wallace, Bass/Sully (best of)

Formerly Center Position:  Humphries, Brazilian Guy/Olynyk (best of)


It just doesn't look like a team that shouldn't win enough games to stay out of the top of the lottery, and I don't think the difference between possibly picking, say, 7th or 8th instead of, say, 12th is worth making not going all all-out to win worthwhile.

I mean, 1-4, we're pretty good.  And we have solid guard and forward backups, and perhaps go 4 deep with rotation guys at both guard and forward.  That should be a playoff team, even if the center position isn't that strong.

That roster will be lucky to win 25 games.

The Milwaukee Bucks won 38 games last season.  The 2013 Celtics are way more talented than that team.

This is my thinking too, so we won't get a top-5 pick either way.  Might as well go for broke then, and we have a couple of good-very good lineups that can get time.  Not enough to go anywhere, but enough to start learning how to win.

We're not, like, historically bad.  We look more like the Gary Payton version of the Celtics, just good enough to go on a nice streak.

[chambers]

Chambers, every point you make is opinion or speculation.

It is YOUR opinion how good Rondo is.  The numbers he has put up in the playoffs since 2009 are unquestionable superstar numbers.

There is no guarantee that tanking would lead to a player of Kobe, Duncan, Dirk, Lebron caliber.  That is pure speculation.  For every one of those guys there is a Milicic, Kwame, Beasley, Morrison. 

Kobe was drafted at the same position as Kelly Olynyk.  We clearly don't have to tank for that.

Drafting Dirk was not why the Mavs won the championship, just like drafting Pierce was not the reason the Celitcs won the championship.  There is a decade of team building before those championships happened. 

Duncan is a unique situation where a much better team who finished with a much better record won the lottery over many other teams tanking.  Do you remember what happened to the Celtics who tanked for Duncan and lost?

Wade is the only player who fits your fantasy of drafting a stud who leads you to a championship.  And guess what?  He needed two of the top 10 players of all time (Shaq and Lebron) to join him to make it happen.  Hardly a convincing sample. 

The plan is easy.  We have two pieces already in Rondo and Green.  We have a lot of young talented players who will keep improving in Bradley, Sullinger, Olynyk, Pressey, Iverson, Brooks.  We have tons of cap space and 9 first round picks in the next 5 years to add to the core.  We will have some cap space as Humphries, Bogans, Crawford expire next year and when Bass, Lee, Wallace are traded.  We have a large trade exception as well.  We are set up very well for our talent to grow and to add new talent in the future.

Kobe was drafted in the KG vein that would never happen today- coming out of high school and allowing teams to get lucky on an extremely young guy going global.

You can choose to discount Dirk and Pierce being drafted by their championship teams but it's just as important. Without those two players, there is no championship. The reason KG and Ray went there was because the organization was good enough to envision it happening- that and the fact that Pierce was there.

Again, you're ignoring the fact that of those championships or finals teams, 17 were achieved by a team that drafted it's own top 10 player and added pieces later. You've yet to acknowledge this fact. You also haven't acknowledged that this is the exact way we got KG and Ray here like that doesn't count in such a debate.

I guess we'll agree to disagree.
You think Rondo is a top 10 player based on a few 2010 and 2012 playoff runs where he was surrounded by multiple all stars- I'd say a sample size of maybe 15-20 games?
I think he's someone capable of playing at a top 10 level occasionally, but not night in and night out like a true top 10 player needs to do- ie Pierce or KG in their primes. He can't shoot, he can't hit free throws. The reality is he'll never be a top 10 player in the NBA. If you can't admit this you're in denial.

My opinion is that as we currently sit, Rondo and Green and a 7th seed are not enough to make us a serious title contender. It's certainly not enough to convince Rondo to stay past the 2014-15 season.
We need 2 more players on at least an All Star level. I don't know how we can afford 2 such players unless one of them is a draft pick or we trade trade Jeff Green or Rondo to acquire one of them.

You're touting Iverson, Brooks and Pressey as young talent. That's your opinion.

Rondo and Green, with Iverson, Brooks and Pressey- with Rondo coming off the books in 2015.
You're also suggesting that we can trade Lee, Bass, Wallace without giving up Rondo or Green.

Are you completely against drafting someone like Wiggins or Parker or Randle- or anyone else in this draft? Or are you just completely against having a losing squad for a season?

Do you understand why some fans like me would rather lose an extra 10 games if it meant heading into the 2015 off season with Rondo, Jabari Parker and Jeff Green, rather than Rondo, pick number 15 and Jeff Green?

[Yogi]

Kobe was drafted in the KG vein that would never happen today- coming out of high school and allowing teams to get lucky on an extremely young guy going global.

You can choose to discount Dirk and Pierce being drafted by their championship teams but it's just as important. Without those two players, there is no championship. The reason KG and Ray went there was because the organization was good enough to envision it happening- that and the fact that Pierce was there.

Again, you're ignoring the fact that of those championships or finals teams, 17 were achieved by a team that drafted it's own top 10 player and added pieces later. You've yet to acknowledge this fact. You also haven't acknowledged that this is the exact way we got KG and Ray here like that doesn't count in such a debate.

I guess we'll agree to disagree.
You think Rondo is a top 10 player based on a few 2010 and 2012 playoff runs where he was surrounded by multiple all stars- I'd say a sample size of maybe 15-20 games?
I think he's someone capable of playing at a top 10 level occasionally, but not night in and night out like a true top 10 player needs to do- ie Pierce or KG in their primes. He can't shoot, he can't hit free throws. The reality is he'll never be a top 10 player in the NBA. If you can't admit this you're in denial.

My opinion is that as we currently sit, Rondo and Green and a 7th seed are not enough to make us a serious title contender. It's certainly not enough to convince Rondo to stay past the 2014-15 season.
We need 2 more players on at least an All Star level. I don't know how we can afford 2 such players unless one of them is a draft pick or we trade trade Jeff Green or Rondo to acquire one of them.

You're touting Iverson, Brooks and Pressey as young talent. That's your opinion.

Rondo and Green, with Iverson, Brooks and Pressey- with Rondo coming off the books in 2015.
You're also suggesting that we can trade Lee, Bass, Wallace without giving up Rondo or Green.

Are you completely against drafting someone like Wiggins or Parker or Randle- or anyone else in this draft? Or are you just completely against having a losing squad for a season?

Do you understand why some fans like me would rather lose an extra 10 games if it meant heading into the 2015 off season with Rondo, Jabari Parker and Jeff Green, rather than Rondo, pick number 15 and Jeff Green?

1.  I am not "choosing" to discount Dirk and Pierce, but it took them 8-10 years after the draft to win a championship.  It is absolutely insane to tank to have a small shot at getting a top pick, who has a small shot at becoming a franchise player in order to win a title 8-10 years from now. 

2.  We disagree about Rondo but the fact is he has played 92 play off games, started every single one of them and averages 15, 9, 6 with 2 steals. 

3.  It is easy to accuse people of being in denial.  Facts are that Rondo is a perennial all star, who has been all NBA defense 1st team, lead the league in steals per game and assists per game and is possibly the best rebounding point guard in the league.

4.  One thing you do not seem to understand is that Bradley, Sullinger and Olynyk are 22 years old.  Even if we do nothing at all they will get better.  Furthermore, we have 2 first round picks to add to our core each year in order to improve our team.  We will also have some cap space if we decide to move Bass, Lee and Wallace contracts. 

So even if we do nothing, we will keep getting better as a team.  So an 8th seed this year might become a 4th seed and a second round exit next year.  It might become a contender the year after.  This is speculation, but the point is the team is not "stuck."

As to your other speculations, they are just that and nothing more.  Indiana was a first round exit team before West joined them.  Houston was a first round exit before Dwight joined them.  Knicks were a first round exit before Chandler joined them.  On what basis can you say that a 7th seed is not enough to become a contender?

You have no evidence to suggest that Rondo will leave Boston, or even that we would be so bad that he would want to leave Boston.  It is entirely hypothetical and not worth any attention. 

We NEED two more players on an all star level?  That is a statement that has no support behind it whatsoever.  We will not be able to make any definitive statements about this team until we see it play at least half a season.  It is a completely different team with a brand new coach. 

Iverson, Brooks and Pressey are young so that is not a point of contention.  I assume that you are saying it is my opinion that they are talents.  That is correct.  It is also the opinion of Danny Ainge who signed Pressey and Faverani over guys like Shavlik Randolph, Chris Wilcox, Terrence Williams etc.  He also went through the trouble of purchasing a second round pick from the Pacers to draft Iverson.  So there is some support to my opinion.

I am not against drafting Wiggins or Parker.  What I am against is doing anything other than trying your absolute best to win every game in order to get a better draft pick. 

There is a reason why people like KG change the culture where they go.  There is a reason why talented teams like Sacramento Kings and Washington Wizards are unable to win games no matter how much talent they add to their roster.  That reason is that culture is very important to the success of a franchise. 

Teams that prioritize professionalism and winning become champions.  Teams that lose games to try to get a better player are weak teams that develop bad habits, and teach their players losing is okay.  Those teams will never win championships no matter how much talent you add to them. 

I understand why fans would want pick number 1-5 over pick 15-20.  But I would rather have a playoff team full of winners and 15th pick than than a team of losers and the 2nd pick.  The 2nd pick may or may not work out, but a playoff team full of young and improving players is most certainly on the right path.