Kelly Olynyk 2013-2014 predictions.

[Boris Badenov]

I think he will have some big games, but overall, I would say 6.5 points and 3 rebounds per game.  I think the game is going to be a little too physical for him to stay on the floor much.

Really? So he will have a worse year than andrew nicholson did in year one?

I think Chris is projecting pretty comparable numbers for KO vs. Nicholson (6.5/3 vs. 7.8/3.5).

Nicholson was the 19th pick last year, and Olynyk was 13th this year in a weaker draft.

You on the other hand are projecting KO's 2013-14 numbers as comparable to what Anthony Davis put up last year (AD had 13/8/1/1/2 vs. your KO projection of 16/7/2/1/1).

Davis was the consensus #1 pick and is viewed as a potential franchise player.

Which comparison seems like more of a stretch?

When you compare or defend nicholson i dont know what to say. Watch the sl games first. I dont care if olynyk was undrafted, he took him to school, twice.

Chris states due to lack of strength oly will struggle. He has a inside/outside game for a reason. He could shoot mid range all day long and score 10. If the player defending him gets closer he can dribble by them for a layup.

If he plays 10 min, sure 6ppg, 3 rb is ok. But i bet he plays 18 min or more.

This is exactly what I'm talking about. You throw these numbers out there, but I question whether you understand them at all.

Here is a fact for you: no player in the 3 point era (going back to 1979) - not one, ever - has averaged 6 points and 3 rebounds per game in under 12 minutes.

You are projecting Olynyk to do something no one in recent NBA history has done.

Averaging 6 points and 3 rebounds in 10 minutes works out to 21.6 points and 10.8 rebounds per 36 minutes.

There were exactly zero players in the league who scored and rebounded at that rate last year, playing any level of minutes.

In fact, in the last 15 years of the NBA, a player has both scored and rebounded at those per-36 rates 9 different times. Here are their names:

Shaquille O'Neal
Kevin Garnett
Tim Duncan
Carlos Boozer
Chris Bosh
Dwight Howard
Kevin Love

You think even in 10 minutes a game Kelly Olynyk - as a rookie - will be scoring and rebounding at rates comparable to the very best years of these MVPs and All-Stars?

[Tr1boy]

I think he will have some big games, but overall, I would say 6.5 points and 3 rebounds per game.  I think the game is going to be a little too physical for him to stay on the floor much.

Really? So he will have a worse year than andrew nicholson did in year one?

I think Chris is projecting pretty comparable numbers for KO vs. Nicholson (6.5/3 vs. 7.8/3.5).

Nicholson was the 19th pick last year, and Olynyk was 13th this year in a weaker draft.

You on the other hand are projecting KO's 2013-14 numbers as comparable to what Anthony Davis put up last year (AD had 13/8/1/1/2 vs. your KO projection of 16/7/2/1/1).

Davis was the consensus #1 pick and is viewed as a potential franchise player.

Which comparison seems like more of a stretch?

When you compare or defend nicholson i dont know what to say. Watch the sl games first. I dont care if olynyk was undrafted, he took him to school, twice.

Chris states due to lack of strength oly will struggle. He has a inside/outside game for a reason. He could shoot mid range all day long and score 10. If the player defending him gets closer he can dribble by them for a layup.

If he plays 10 min, sure 6ppg, 3 rb is ok. But i bet he plays 18 min or more.

This is exactly what I'm talking about. You throw these numbers out there, but I question whether you understand them at all.

Here is a fact for you: no player in the 3 point era (going back to 1979) - not one, ever - has averaged 6 points and 3 rebounds per game in under 12 minutes.

You are projecting Olynyk to do something no one in recent NBA history has done.

Averaging 6 points and 3 rebounds in 10 minutes works out to 21.6 points and 10.8 rebounds per 36 minutes.

There were exactly zero players in the league who scored and rebounded at that rate last year, playing any level of minutes.

In fact, in the last 15 years of the NBA, a player has both scored and rebounded at those per-36 rates 9 different times. Here are their names:

Shaquille O'Neal
Kevin Garnett
Tim Duncan
Carlos Boozer
Chris Bosh
Dwight Howard
Kevin Love

You think even in 10 minutes a game Kelly Olynyk - as a rookie - will be scoring and rebounding at rates comparable to the very best years of these MVPs and All-Stars?

I love the way you assume. Per your theory, if Nicholson plays 32 min, he will score 15 pts and 7 rebounds , right?? Does he then outavg some of the best in the league?? BTW Bass in 2009 did 5.8 pts and 2.5 reb in 13 min avg.  I appreciate you taking your time to research all the data,stats and stuff, but the reality is in general there are enough players in the league that can avg about 12 min 6 pts 3 rebs. And alot are not even starting material

[Boris Badenov]

I think he will have some big games, but overall, I would say 6.5 points and 3 rebounds per game.  I think the game is going to be a little too physical for him to stay on the floor much.

Really? So he will have a worse year than andrew nicholson did in year one?

I think Chris is projecting pretty comparable numbers for KO vs. Nicholson (6.5/3 vs. 7.8/3.5).

Nicholson was the 19th pick last year, and Olynyk was 13th this year in a weaker draft.

You on the other hand are projecting KO's 2013-14 numbers as comparable to what Anthony Davis put up last year (AD had 13/8/1/1/2 vs. your KO projection of 16/7/2/1/1).

Davis was the consensus #1 pick and is viewed as a potential franchise player.

Which comparison seems like more of a stretch?

When you compare or defend nicholson i dont know what to say. Watch the sl games first. I dont care if olynyk was undrafted, he took him to school, twice.

Chris states due to lack of strength oly will struggle. He has a inside/outside game for a reason. He could shoot mid range all day long and score 10. If the player defending him gets closer he can dribble by them for a layup.

If he plays 10 min, sure 6ppg, 3 rb is ok. But i bet he plays 18 min or more.

This is exactly what I'm talking about. You throw these numbers out there, but I question whether you understand them at all.

Here is a fact for you: no player in the 3 point era (going back to 1979) - not one, ever - has averaged 6 points and 3 rebounds per game in under 12 minutes.

You are projecting Olynyk to do something no one in recent NBA history has done.

Averaging 6 points and 3 rebounds in 10 minutes works out to 21.6 points and 10.8 rebounds per 36 minutes.

There were exactly zero players in the league who scored and rebounded at that rate last year, playing any level of minutes.

In fact, in the last 15 years of the NBA, a player has both scored and rebounded at those per-36 rates 9 different times. Here are their names:

Shaquille O'Neal
Kevin Garnett
Tim Duncan
Carlos Boozer
Chris Bosh
Dwight Howard
Kevin Love

You think even in 10 minutes a game Kelly Olynyk - as a rookie - will be scoring and rebounding at rates comparable to the very best years of these MVPs and All-Stars?

I love the way you assume. Per your theory, if Nicholson plays 32 min, he will score 15 pts and 7 rebounds , right?? Does he then outavg some of the best in the league?? BTW Bass in 2009 did 5.8 pts and 2.5 reb in 13 min avg.  I appreciate you taking your time to research all the data,stats and stuff, but the reality is in general there are enough players in the league that can avg about 12 min 6 pts 3 rebs. And alot are not even starting material

I'm not assuming anything. There are no "theories." I am just stating facts.

You say that Kelly Olynyk can average 6ppg and 3rpg in 10mpg.

I am saying that no player in the modern era has done that.

If you want to check for yourself, I've saved the search:

http://bkref.com/tiny/n5HHu

"Sorry, there are no results that match your search."

It is quite simple.

[chambers]

9 points 6 rebounds 22 mins per game

[indeedproceed]

12 pts 6 rebounds 46% from the field, 33% from 3

[gar]

12 pts 6 rebounds 46% from the field, 33% from 3

Now there is a prediction. I actually think that Stevens will use a college style rotation, meaning that he will play a lot of people fewer minutes (no 30-40 min. per except perhaps Rondo / Green).

Olynyk may surprise people from deep. I think the percentages above are conservative I say 48% and 35% once Rondo is back to feed him at the rim. He has great hands and moves well without the ball.

[Tr1boy]

I think he will have some big games, but overall, I would say 6.5 points and 3 rebounds per game.  I think the game is going to be a little too physical for him to stay on the floor much.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=a_r8MJasvrI

Even though the nba will be a little physical for him in year one, at least he will try and not shy away from contact. This is the reason why he will stay on the floor. Olynyk can't "sky" but his ability to up quickly for 2nd/3rd tries is excellent. Sullinger, Varejao excellent

Mchale on Olynyk
“I like him,” said the Celts legend and current Rockets coach. “I like him a lot.
“I tell you what, he does some interesting stuff. I was telling our guys that it’s been a long time since I’ve seen a guy get an offensive rebound and just quick lay it over the rim like he did out there. No one else reacted. You play by yourself when you do that, because people aren’t reacting like you are.

[perks-a-beast]

30 minutes. 12.6 PPG, 5.3 RPG, 2.0 APG, 47% FG, 33% 3PT. 1st team All Rookie.

I think Olynyk is going to be a guy who gets better and better every year.

[fitzhickey]

13 pts 6 rebs 1.5 ast 46% fg 36% 3pt
I think that although he isn't the strongest banger, his outside game and overall good touch on the offensive end will help him.
He seems to have his head wrapped around the game, understands the game.
Is a 7ft shooter so it would be hard to challenge that shot of his.

[Boris Badenov]

I think he will have some big games, but overall, I would say 6.5 points and 3 rebounds per game.  I think the game is going to be a little too physical for him to stay on the floor much.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=a_r8MJasvrI

Even though the nba will be a little physical for him in year one, at least he will try and not shy away from contact. This is the reason why he will stay on the floor. Olynyk can't "sky" but his ability to up quickly for 2nd/3rd tries is excellent. Sullinger, Varejao excellent

Mchale on Olynyk
“I like him,” said the Celts legend and current Rockets coach. “I like him a lot.
“I tell you what, he does some interesting stuff. I was telling our guys that it’s been a long time since I’ve seen a guy get an offensive rebound and just quick lay it over the rim like he did out there. No one else reacted. You play by yourself when you do that, because people aren’t reacting like you are.

I don't want to speak for Chris, but I would suspect that the concerns about physicality are more in terms of defense and rebounding. Olynyk was overpowered physically at times in college (and also in summer league, though you won't see that on highlight videos) - playing against guys who are not even close to the level of the typical NBA center or power forward.

You can see some of this starting at around 7::30 of this video:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0UYG1Ksrnm4#t=613

I love Olynyk as a player, don't get me wrong, and I hope he has a great year.

But I think in his rookie year, the idea that he will be overpowered against PFs is plausible. Think about it, he will be covering guys like  KG, Duncan, Stoudemire, Bosh, Horford, Griffin, West, Boozer, Milsap, Randolph etc...even the typical backup PF is going to be on another level compared to guys Olynyk faced in summer league and college.

If you go back to Al Jefferson's rookie year, he was in a similar situation. He clearly was ready offensively, but on the other end he was tough to keep on the floor. In Al's case it was maybe more about being young and not understanding the game - he had from day 1 physical gifts and rebounding ability that Olynyk lacks.

Jefferson ended up averaging 6.7/4.4.

[lightspeed5]

7 ppg, 3 rpg

[Tr1boy]

I think he will have some big games, but overall, I would say 6.5 points and 3 rebounds per game.  I think the game is going to be a little too physical for him to stay on the floor much.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=a_r8MJasvrI

Even though the nba will be a little physical for him in year one, at least he will try and not shy away from contact. This is the reason why he will stay on the floor. Olynyk can't "sky" but his ability to up quickly for 2nd/3rd tries is excellent. Sullinger, Varejao excellent

Mchale on Olynyk
“I like him,” said the Celts legend and current Rockets coach. “I like him a lot.
“I tell you what, he does some interesting stuff. I was telling our guys that it’s been a long time since I’ve seen a guy get an offensive rebound and just quick lay it over the rim like he did out there. No one else reacted. You play by yourself when you do that, because people aren’t reacting like you are.

I don't want to speak for Chris, but I would suspect that the concerns about physicality are more in terms of defense and rebounding. Olynyk was overpowered physically at times in college (and also in summer league, though you won't see that on highlight videos) - playing against guys who are not even close to the level of the typical NBA center or power forward.

You can see some of this starting at around 7::30 of this video:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0UYG1Ksrnm4#t=613

I love Olynyk as a player, don't get me wrong, and I hope he has a great year.

But I think in his rookie year, the idea that he will be overpowered against PFs is plausible. Think about it, he will be covering guys like  KG, Duncan, Stoudemire, Bosh, Horford, Griffin, West, Boozer, Milsap, Randolph etc...even the typical backup PF is going to be on another level compared to guys Olynyk faced in summer league and college.

If you go back to Al Jefferson's rookie year, he was in a similar situation. He clearly was ready offensively, but on the other end he was tough to keep on the floor. In Al's case it was maybe more about being young and not understanding the game - he had from day 1 physical gifts and rebounding ability that Olynyk lacks.

Jefferson ended up averaging 6.7/4.4.

Dont understand the negativity. Oh well

Everyone knows he could be better defensively. To say he gets overpowered on either end is false. He gets out jumped/reached at times , yes. He is not kg in terms of being able to save  others or play the pnr to perfection. But in general he is a good defender, able to do a good job on his man and help others.  Def better than melo or jjj

[Boris Badenov]

I think he will have some big games, but overall, I would say 6.5 points and 3 rebounds per game.  I think the game is going to be a little too physical for him to stay on the floor much.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=a_r8MJasvrI

Even though the nba will be a little physical for him in year one, at least he will try and not shy away from contact. This is the reason why he will stay on the floor. Olynyk can't "sky" but his ability to up quickly for 2nd/3rd tries is excellent. Sullinger, Varejao excellent

Mchale on Olynyk
“I like him,” said the Celts legend and current Rockets coach. “I like him a lot.
“I tell you what, he does some interesting stuff. I was telling our guys that it’s been a long time since I’ve seen a guy get an offensive rebound and just quick lay it over the rim like he did out there. No one else reacted. You play by yourself when you do that, because people aren’t reacting like you are.

I don't want to speak for Chris, but I would suspect that the concerns about physicality are more in terms of defense and rebounding. Olynyk was overpowered physically at times in college (and also in summer league, though you won't see that on highlight videos) - playing against guys who are not even close to the level of the typical NBA center or power forward.

You can see some of this starting at around 7::30 of this video:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0UYG1Ksrnm4#t=613

I love Olynyk as a player, don't get me wrong, and I hope he has a great year.

But I think in his rookie year, the idea that he will be overpowered against PFs is plausible. Think about it, he will be covering guys like  KG, Duncan, Stoudemire, Bosh, Horford, Griffin, West, Boozer, Milsap, Randolph etc...even the typical backup PF is going to be on another level compared to guys Olynyk faced in summer league and college.

If you go back to Al Jefferson's rookie year, he was in a similar situation. He clearly was ready offensively, but on the other end he was tough to keep on the floor. In Al's case it was maybe more about being young and not understanding the game - he had from day 1 physical gifts and rebounding ability that Olynyk lacks.

Jefferson ended up averaging 6.7/4.4.

Dont understand the negativity. Oh well

Everyone knows he could be better defensively. To say he gets overpowered on either end is false. He gets out jumped/reached at times , yes. He is not kg in terms of being able to save  others or play the pnr to perfection. But in general he is a good defender, able to do a good job on his man and help others.  Def better than melo or jjj

Well, one man's negativity is another man's realism, and some might say that ignoring a player's documented weaknesses and projecting him to do things unmatched by any rookie in the modern era is nothing but pie-eyed optimism.

Tell you what though, if Olynyk is averaging your projected 16/7/2/1/1 line at mid-year, with close to 50/80 shooting, I will be the first one to revive this thread, give you a TP and congratulate you on your prescience.

[ScoobyDoo]

Two things surprise me when people talk about Olynyk.

1. Some people said he didn't have much of a post game. I thought he had a post game like Mchale - not nearly as good yet - but his style in the post is similar. The kid can score from a variety of places on the floor. He's about as well rounded a scoring big man as I've seen in quite some time.

2. That he's not strong enough. To be honest I'm more concerned with how tough he is than how strong he is. From  what I've seen, he's plenty tough. He may not be able to throw guys all over the place, but I don't see him getting tossed around either and he certainly does not shy away from contact on either end of the floor.

He's seven tall and his already 240 pounds. If he has strong legs, he may be more difficult to move around in the paint than people think. Being able to hold your ground in the paint has more to do with leg strength than upper body strength.

Hard to say what numbers he'll average -

12 / 5 / 3 - 25 minutes a night.

Scary thing for Olynk - if he puts on 15-20 pounds of muscle over the next 2-3 years without losing his agility and speed? he could be very, very tough.

He could turn into a 20 and 8 guy.     

[ScoobyDoo]

Boris and others:

Based on the rookie stats of some very talented players over the last 30+ years, what then do you make of Sully's numbers in year one?

His averages say whatever, 6.5 and 6 or something.

But over his last 20 games or so and with a bad back, wasn't he averaging like 10 and 9, really being productive in short minutes.

It's hard to extrapolate stuff like that. But does anyone think it's fair to say - based on Sully's rookie run averaging around 10 & 9 before he got injured - we may have a real stud with Sully if he stays healthy long term?

What are people thoughts on that?